差别电价效应及影响因素的系统动力学分析

差别电价政策作为价格杠杆直接调控经济,在实施中受较多因素的影响。本文建立了差别电价政策的系统动力学模型,对影响差别电价政策效果的因素进行了分析。研究结果表明,在其他因素不变的前提下,当高耗能企业的单位电耗降低时,企业为获取较多利润会增加生产量,从而使用电量提高;当高耗能企业产品的市场价格提高时,企业较少考虑差别电价,会提高实际生产量,差别电价政策的效果弱化;当高耗能企业产品的市场价格减低时,企业会降低实际生产量,差别电价政策的效果很明显。     

部委传真

我国将取消高耗能企业电价优惠10月12日,国家发改委、财政部、电监会联合下发《关于进一步贯彻落实差别电价政策有关问题的通知》(以下简称《通知》)。《通知》规定,对铁合金行业的电价优惠自10月20日起全部取消。电解铝行业的用电价格在销售电价表中单列或注明实行优惠的,在2007年内应予以取消。对     

地方传真

上海：对能耗超标的企业实行惩罚性价格上海市日前取消电价目录表中离子膜烧碱等3类高耗能企业用电价格每年0．05元／千瓦时的优惠。继续对电解铝、铁合金、钢铁、电石、烧碱、水泥、黄磷、锌冶炼8个高耗能行业实施差别电价政策，并将限制类企业执行的电价加价标准由每千瓦时0．05元提高到0．15元，淘汰类企业执行的电价加价标准由每千瓦时0．20元提高到0．40元。对制革、印染、规划保留的工业园区之外的零星化工生产和危化生产企业，     

部委新政

国务院：对高耗能行业实施惩罚性电价、水价 为积极有效地化解钢铁、水泥、电解铝、平板玻璃、船舶等行业产能严重过剩矛盾,同时指导其他产能过剩行业化解工作,国务院制定《关于化解产能严重过剩矛盾的指导意见》。《意见》提出强化环保硬约束监督管理,为此,将抓紧研究完善污染物排放和环境质量标准,特别是对京津冀等环境敏感区域要提高相关环境标准。《意见》要求,完善差别电价政策,各地对产能严重过剩行业优惠电价政策进行清理整顿,禁止自行实行电价优惠和电费补贴。     

新政策新法规

资源综合利用鼓励办法10月1日起实施；国家完善差别电价：高耗能企业将支付高电价；《风景名胜区条例》发布严重破坏景区罚款50万；国务院发布《防治海洋工程建设污染管理条例》；监察部国土资源部联合查处土地违法违规案件；七部委联手管理土地复垦。     

简讯

上半年全国主要污染物排放总量双下降;千家企业节能目标考核结果公布;差别电价有效遏制高耗能行业;我国发行首支减排专项企业债券;国土资源部9项工作加强土地整理复垦开发……     

我国将积极稳妥推进能源价格改革

国家发改委负责人6月15日介绍，为了落实好新修订的《节约能源法》，我国将采取一系列措施，推动全社会节约能源、提高能源利用效率，其中包括继续实施有利于节能的经济政策，积极稳妥地推进能源价格改革，择机进一步理顺成品油、天然气价格。这位负责人还说，我国还将认真落实差别电价政策，督促各地停止对高耗能企业实行电价优惠。     

券商点评5月出台政策

5月,除了央行上调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率等货币政策外,国务院、工信部、国家发展改革委、国家电监会、国家能源局也针对各个行业,出台了多项政策,本刊特邀请多家券商,对此进行点评。5月12日,国家发展改革委、国家电监会、国家能源局联合下发《关于清理对高耗能企业优惠电价等问题的通知》,要求限期取消现行对电解铝等高耗能企业用电价格优惠。工信部5月13日下发《关于公开征集稀土行业准入条件意见的通知》,对稀土行业的多项指标划定门槛,并进行为期两周的公开征求意见。5月13日,《国务院关于鼓励和引导民间投资健康发展的若干意见》发布,鼓励民间投资进入市政公用事业、政策性住房建设、医疗事业、金融机构等领域。     

煤炭资源税改革对中国的经济影响——基于CGE模型的测算

煤炭资源税改革在即,作为占一次能源消费结构70%以上且具有高碳排放的基础性能源,其税制改革必将对国民经济产生系统性的影响。尤其是考虑到下游电价是否市场化和税收是否返还等问题,资源税改革的经济影响评估将更加复杂。为此,本文利用CGE模型,在无税收返还电价管制、无税收返还电价市场化、税收返还电价管制、税收返还电价市场化四种情景下,模拟征收5%煤炭资源税对中国经济的影响。结果显示,煤炭资源税改革对经济有微弱的负面冲击,考虑税收返还情景下,不但可以抵消冲击,还可以拉动GDP小幅增长;煤炭资源税改革并不会推高CPI,放开电价管制及考虑税收返还对物价的抑制效果更明显;煤炭资源税改革有利于改善内需结构,同样,考虑税收返还情景下效果更为明显。煤炭资源税改革能够降低高耗能产业产出,有利于节能减排。从受益角度看,无税收返还情景下,出口导向型企业受益;税收返还则会使私人消费品部门受益。最后,本文根据模拟结果提出了政策建议。     

供电企业协态收益电价策略研究

随着我国电力行业市场化程度的不断提高,电价对电力需求的影响日趋明显,主要表现在三个方面:一是影响企业的用电水平,电价高于企业承受能力时,用电量明显减少;二是影响高耗电产业发展的地区分布和现有布局,高耗电产业将纷纷由电价高的地区转移到电价低的地区,致使各地区电力需求增长格局发生明显变化;三是影响居民的用电习惯,购买更加节能的电器或者转向使用太阳能等其他能源.     

Asymmetric Demand Information in Uniform and Discriminatory Call Auctions: An Experimental Analysis Motivated by Electricity Markets

We study experimental multi-unit uniform and discriminatory auctions with demand uncertainty, motivated by the ongoing debate about market design in the electricity industry. We study the effect of asymmetric demand-information in the two auction institutions. In our treatment condition some sellers have less information than in our baseline conditions. In both conditions transaction prices and price volatility are not significantly different under the two auction institutions. However, under asymmetric information discriminatory auctions are significantly less efficient. These results are not in line with typical arguments made in favor of discriminatory pricing in electricity industries; namely, lower prices and less volatility.     

基于小波自适应支持向量机的短期电价预测

电价预测对于发电商、供电企业以及市场监管者都具有重要的意义。提出一种小波自适应支持向量机预测模型,先将电价时间序列作小波分解得到低频和高频分量,再采用自适应调整法,自动地为支持向量机选择较好的参数对电价小波分量逐一预测,最后通过小波重构得到电价最终预测结果。实例证明前述方法得到的预测精度高于BP、RBF、SVM等传统预测模型。     

中国电力行业减排政策——基于电力需求函数的实证分析

利用2003—2015年中国的省际面板数据,通过估计电力需求函数模拟碳税的政策效果,为电力行业减排政策的制定提供了参考。结果表明:随着中国经济进入新常态,电价对电力需求的影响减弱,产业结构特别是工业内部结构的调整对电力需求和电力消费结构产生一定影响;由于电力需求对电价变动不敏感,因此碳税的减排效果有限;为实现减排目标,政府需要征收高额碳税,但这在现有的电价水平下较难实施;从减排效果和实施难度两个方面来看,当前暂不开征碳税的减排政策具有一定合理性;与碳税相比,加快供给侧结构性改革、降低火力发电比重,能够更有效地实现减排目标;现阶段政府应将调整电源结构作为节能减排工作的重点。     

电力市场中计及实时电价的电力系统运行风险管理新策略

针对电力市场中用户对实时电价的反应,本文提出一种计及实时电价的电力系统运行风险管理新策略。该策略在评估电力系统运行风险的基础上,对实时电价进行调节,并以电价为信号,刺激用户采取合理的用电结构和方式,从而增强电力系统运行的可靠性。该方法只是弥补了传统方法无法考虑系统运行可靠性的不足,而并非颠覆传统的电价管理方法,所以二者具有很好的衔接性。最后,通过对IEEPRTS测试系统的可靠性进行计算分析,验证了所提算法的有效性。     

Price Discrimination, Regulation and Entry in the UK Residential Electricity Market

The residential electricity market in Great Britain has recently been opened to competition and is served by 14 regional incumbents, and up to 15 entrants in each area. This study finds that the incumbents' regulated prices are discriminatory between consumers using different payment methods, and that firms are practising third‐degree price discrimination between areas. The authors discuss the implications for regulatory policy both in the UK and in other countries where electricity markets are being deregulated.     

Rethinking real-time electricity pricing

Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. This paper evaluates the first program to expose residential consumers to hourly real-time pricing (RTP). I find that enrolled households are statistically significantly price elastic and that consumers responded by conserving energy during peak hours, but remarkably did not increase average consumption during off-peak times. The program increased consumer surplus by $10 per household per year. While this is only one to two percent of electricity costs, it illustrates a potential additional benefit from investment in retail Smart Grid applications, including the advanced electricity meters required to observe a household’s hourly consumption.     

Bidding in an Electricity Pay-as-Bid Auction

One of the main elements of the recent reform of electricity trading in the United Kingdom is the change from a uniform price auction in the wholesale market to discriminatory pricing. We analyze this change under two polar market structures (perfectly competitive and monopolistic supply), with demand uncertainty. We find that under perfect competition there is a trade-off between efficiency and consumer surplus between the two auction rules. We also establish that a move from uniform to discriminatory pricing under monopoly conditions has a negative impact on profits and output (weakly), a positive impact on consumer surplus, and ambiguous implications for welfare and average prices.     

Household Response to Optional Peak-Load Pricing of Electricity

I investigate the impacts of voluntary time-of-day (TOD) rates on residential demand for electricity. My analysis is based on a sample of a survey, which provides cross-sectional data on electricity consumption and economic/demographic features for both TOD and non-TOD households in Japan. This information is used to develop an almost ideal demand system for the TOD electricity consumption during the summer. The results show that (1) household response to the high price of the peak period is relatively modest, and (2) the relative magnitudes of the price and selection effects depend on the ownership of water heaters.     

Household Electricity Demand, Revisited

Recent efforts to restructure electricity markets have renewed interest in assessing how consumers respond to price changes. This paper develops a model for evaluating the effects of alternative tariff designs on electricity use. The model concurrently addresses several interrelated difficulties posed by nonlinear pricing, heterogeneity in consumer price sensitivity, and consumption aggregation over appliances and time. We estimate the model using extensive data for a representative sample of 1300 California households. The results imply a strikingly skewed distribution of household electricity price elasticities in the population, with a small fraction of households accounting for most aggregate demand response. We then estimate the aggregate and distributional consequences of recent tariff structure changes in California, the consumption effects of which have been the subject of considerable debate.