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This study uses 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The bio-index method counts the number of variables for which each candidate rates favorably, and the forecast is that the candidate with the highest score would win the popular vote. The bio-index relies on different information and includes more variables than traditional econometric election forecasting models. The method is useful in combination with simple linear regression to estimate a relationship between the index score of the candidate of the incumbent party and his share of the popular vote. The study tests the model for the 29 U.S. presidential elections from 1896 to 2008. The model's forecasts, calculated by cross-validation, correctly predicted the popular vote winner for 27 of the 29 elections; this performance compares favorably to forecasts from polls (15 out of 19), prediction markets (22 out of 26), and three econometric models (12 to 13 out of 15 to 16). Out-of-sample forecasts of the two-party popular vote for the four elections from 1996 to 2008 yielded a forecast error almost as low as the best of seven econometric models. The model can help parties to select the candidates running for office, and help to improve on the accuracy of election forecasting, especially for longer-term forecasts. 相似文献
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JIAN Deng-nen 《国际商务-(对外经济贸易大学学报)》2006,(5)
显示性比较优势指数(RCA)是常用的测度比较优势的方法。该方法是由事后结果推断原因的方法,其使用应该有比较严格的条件。该方法在许多情况下并不适用,尤其是在对发展中国家和某些特殊产品的比较优势研究中,必须慎重使用该方法,以免产生错误的结论或误导。 相似文献
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德国公共养老金调整指数改革研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
1957年德国首先建立了基于总工资指数的养老金调整指数,该指数运行34年后,面对人口老龄化的加剧,进行了多次改革。其改革的根本原因在于:基于养老金指数化调整的公共养老金计划缴税率不断攀升及由此对市场效率产生了严重负面影响。一个国家选择何种养老金调整指数取决于本国国情、经济发展状况等因素,但不能忽视调整指数对市场效率的影响,应坚持"效率优先,兼顾公平"的原则。作为发展中国家,中国在设计养老金调整指数时,坚持这一原则更为重要。 相似文献
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经济责任的积极面和消极面相互依存,解决当前经济责任审计中审查与评价方法比较混乱问题的关键是弄清"经济责任"各构成方面对审计的要求。经济责任的积极面具有积极性、差异性、总体性、可计量性等特点,这些特点决定了对其审查应当采用抽样审查法,评价应当采用指标分析评价法;经济责任的消极面具有消极性、统一性、具体性、职业判断性和风险性等特点,这些特点要求对其审查应当采用判断抽查法,评价应当采用问题责任界定法。经济责任审计必须从这两个方面进行全面审查和评价,而且对两个方面的审查和评价必须相互关联而不能相互割裂。 相似文献
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Sarit Shimony-Kanat Rosa Gofin Anna C. Kienski Woloski Wruble Leon Mann 《International journal of injury control and safety promotion》2018,25(1):53-57
Booster seat use for 4–9 year olds remains the lowest of all age groups in many countries. The objective of this study is to examine whether parents’ decision-making patterns, as measured by the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire, relate to car booster seat use. Israeli parents of 4–7 years old children (n = 398) answered a questionnaire about car safety and decision-making habits. Ninety per cent of parents reported having a booster seat; 70.5% reported consistent booster seat use in general and on short drives during the last month (booster seat use compliance index). Greater compliance index was positively related to a vigilant decision-making pattern, passenger compliance with rear seat belts and families with fewer children. Lower booster seat use compliance index was associated with buck-passing decision-making pattern. Health professionals and policy-makers should take into account parents’ habitual decision-making patterns when designing interventions for car booster seat compliance. 相似文献
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政府行为与产业国际竞争力:一个分析框架 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
本文尝试建立一个分析政府行为影响产业国际竞争力的框架。分析产业国际竞争力问题的起点是成本与差异化两个范畴,而比较产业国际竞争力的两类指标是显示性指标和决定性指标,确定政府影响产业国际竞争力的领域则是存在市场失灵的地方,区分政府行为影响产业国际竞争力的两类途径是贸易政策与产业环境,在这些范畴基础上建立的分析框架,能够显现政府如何通过一种影响机制,实现产业国际竞争力的提高。 相似文献
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吉霞 《安徽商贸职业技术学院学报(社会科学版)》2011,10(3):52-54,58
资本充足率指标在金融衍生产品被大量运用的情况下存在一定的失灵现象,监管部门需要配合运用其他指标联合监测银行机构的资本充足水平。杠杆率指标自身具有的一些特点使其适合成为资本充足率补充性指标,其运用可能对银行经营产生一定影响。为了提高杠杆率指标监管的有效性,可以通过尝试建立揭示不同资产风险特征的杠杆率指标体系,关注杠杆率监管的整体性、差异性、动态性和持续性等方式,对杠杆率监管进行完善。 相似文献
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企业在选择中间商时往往面临着候选伙伴评价指标信息获取的困难,为了使决策科学合理,采用群决策方法集成各领域不同专家的信息,通过语言变量把专家的主观判断转化为对应模糊数,建立相应的数学模型,并计算出用模糊数表示的候选者综合评价值。 相似文献
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文章首先采用熵权法和因子分析法测算了经济增长质量综合指数与金融发展综合指数,选取2003~2017年中国30个省份的面板数据,在检验了经济增长质量的空间相关性与金融发展的门槛效应后,构建了动态空间面板模型,实证研究了不同金融发展水平下OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量的影响。研究结果表明,当金融发展处在较低水平时,OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量的促进作用不明显;当金融发展处在较高水平后,OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量的促进作用明显。进一步在地区异质性分析中发现,OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量的影响存在明显的地区差异性,东部地区OFDI逆向技术溢出对经济增长质量影响的门槛效应更明显。 相似文献
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The mean‐variance model of Markowitz and many of its extensions have been playing an instrumental role in guiding the practice of portfolio selection. In this paper we study a mean‐variance formulation for the portfolio selection problem involving options. In particular, the portfolio in question contains a stock index and some European style options on the index. A refined mean‐variance methodology is adopted in our approach to formulate this problem as multistage stochastic optimization. It turns out that there are two different solution techniques, both lead to explicit solutions of the problem: one is based on stochastic programming and optimality conditions, and the other one is based on stochastic control and dynamic programming. We introduce both techniques, because their strengths are very different so as to suit different possible extensions and refinements of the basic model. Attention is paid to the structure of the optimal payoff function, which is shown to possess rich properties. Further refinements of the model, such as the request that the payoff should be monotonic with respect to the index, are discussed. Throughout the paper, various numerical examples are used to illustrate the underlying concepts. 相似文献
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本文认为,无论用剩余索取权还是用剩余控制权抑或用这两种剩余权利的统一体来定义企业所有权,由于其对企业自然属性的忽视以及考察企业所有权的方法存在的问题,导致其无法规避理论上的悖论性结果。文章提出,为跨出这种理论上的悖论境地,必须寻找新的途径对企业所有权进行重新界定。在企业理论中,如果涉及到企业所有权,就简单地直接使用法律上的企业所有权概念;而研究那些"实际存在"的权利的时候,就使用产权这一概念,因为产权本来就表示一组权利。 相似文献
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BELLERSLEV在1986年提出了GARCH模型,该模型反映了经济变量之间的特殊的不确定形式:方差随时间变化而变化,因而在金融市场的预测和风险管理方面有着重要的应用。以上证指数的收益作为研究对象,运用GARCH-N模型、GARCH-T模型和GARCH-GED模型分析上海股市日收益率的条件异方差性,计算出日VaR值,结果表明GARCH模型对于我国的股市风险管理有较好效果。 相似文献
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本文采用国际市场占有率指数、显性比较优势指数和贸易竞争力指数对金砖四国创意商品和创意服务的国际竞争力进行比较研究。结果表明:中国和印度的创意商品具有优势,创意服务的竞争力较弱,俄罗斯和巴西的创意服务优势明显,创意商品的竞争力很弱,金砖四国处于全球创意产业价值链的不同节点。因此,要重视创意服务在创意产业中的重要地位,发挥文化资源优势,对我国创意资源进行整合,加大创意产业资金投入,落实积极的人才发展战略,加快制定鼓励创意产业发展的科技、财税和金融政策,加强金砖国家间创意产业合作。 相似文献
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Who is behind the sustainable purchase? The sustainable consumer profile in grocery shopping in Spain
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Isabel Carrero Raquel Redondo Maria Eugenia Fabra 《International Journal of Consumer Studies》2016,40(6):643-651
Studies of sustainable consumer profiles are mainly label‐specific and focus on Organic or Fair Trade labels. As a result, when the sustainable consumer is defined, there is a sense that only one profile exists. If each label has a different positioning strategy and has different requirements, the buyers of these products may also be different. Through the use of consumer panel data, this paper aims to deepen the understanding of the household demographic profiles of consumers of sustainable brands in order to discover if there is a single sustainable consumer profile or whether there is diversity associated with different labels. This study reveals profile differences and these provide better understanding of the complexities of sustainable consumption. It reveals that the profiles of sustainable buyers are not the same across all labels and this should be taken into account by awarding institutions when designing and evaluating their positioning strategies. 相似文献
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中国服务业的区位分布与地区专业化 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
本文基于LQ指数、RCA指数和K-spec指数,分析了中国服务业及其分部门的区位分布与地区专业化.总体上看,整体服务业及其分部门的地区间差异要小于地区内差异即省际差异.各服务部门的区位分布与地区专业化表现不尽相同,其原因不仅在于服务本身的"非贸易性",还在于各服务部门的地区专业化与分工倾向的差异性.因此,不能像对待制造业那样,过分强调服务业的地区分工与专业化,而应该根据各服务部门的特性及其在国民经济和社会发展中所扮演的角色,促进服务业的部门与地区协调发展. 相似文献
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基于灰色关联分析的游客满意度研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
游客对于景区的满意程度是衡量旅游业发展的一个重要标准,在游客满意度现行研究分析的基础上,提出游客满意度研究方法及评价指标,确定了数据来源,运用灰色关联分析法,对沈阳14个景区的游客满意度进行测度,对测度结果进行了分析。 相似文献