Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A commentary essay

Armstrong and Graefe apply the index method to predict presidential elections. They imply that the technique is also useful for business decision making. Their idea has merit and may be relevant when the decision context is dynamic, has few prior “observations,” and where domain knowledge exists. However, Armstrong and Graefe fail to adequately explain the variable selection process, clarify the conditions when the index method is appropriate, or identify the types of problems most amenable to the index method, and fail to discuss how the index method can be calibrated to help make single option decisions.     

Voss wins the Presidency! A commentary essay on “Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method”

This comment uses the Democratic Party's nomination race from the 1924 U.S. Presidential election to develop a better understanding of Armstrong and Graefe's (2010) Biographical Index. Well-established causal indicators are necessary before actions are taken to nominate, select, or improve the standing of candidates running for election. Forecasting devices such as a Biographical Index cannot eliminate from consideration unworthy candidates. Nonetheless, the Armstrong and Graefe scale appears to have the smallest error of competing forecasting devices.     

A marketing perspective on the rise of China: monopoly,politics and value

Abstract

As researchers in the social sciences seek an understanding of the spectacular rise of China, the seemingly counterintuitive stance of an autocratic regime attaining such sustained economic performance challenges multiple analytical frames. The relatively ponderous responses of the United States and Europe to recent global conditions, and the democratic uprisings in Arabic states, further represent a glaring contrast. While the marketing literature is rich in the particulars of specific management issues in the China market, no analysis from the discipline has attempted to provide a broad, distinctly marketing contribution to the China phenomenon. Choice is a fundamental construct underpinning theories of politics, economics and marketing, though it is notably absent from Chinese politics. The changing relationship between markets, business and government reveals a question that is clearly important to marketers, and China is a challenging boundary case for marketing management.     

Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry

Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is one of the key metrics in marketing and is considered an important segmentation base. This paper studies the capabilities of a range of models to predict CLV in the insurance industry. The simplest models can be constructed at the customer relationship level, i.e. aggregated across all services. The more complex models focus on the individual services, paying explicit attention to cross buying, but also retention. The models build on a plethora of approaches used in the existing literature and include a status quo model, a Tobit II model, univariate and multivariate choice models, and duration models. For all models, CLV for each customer is computed for a four-year time horizon. We find that the simple models perform well. The more complex models are expected to better capture the richness of relationship development. Surprisingly, this does not lead to substantially better CLV predictions.

Language influence in responses to questionnaires by bilingual respondents: A test of the Whorfian hypothesis

This paper examines how sub-cultural respondents differ in their perceptions and answers to questionnaire items tapping their acculturation and ethnic identity. A related objective is to examine how bilingual respondents exposed to an instrument in the source language perceive it compared to subjects exposed to the instrument in their native language. Prior studies find that respondents can answer differently according to the language of the questionnaire. The framework is based on the Whorfian hypothesis and the Revised Hierarchical Model. About 500 questionnaires are collected from Greek-Canadians residing in Eastern Canada. Findings indicate the presence of several non-invariant factor loadings and covariances, indicating that caution should be exercised when carrying out ethnic identity studies with respondents who are given the choice of the language of the questionnaire. Research on how differences between languages affect consumer information processing and cognitions can shed light on a new form of response style in cross-cultural research.     

Management pay-performance sensitivity, internal cash flow and investment behavior: A test of the free cach flow theory and asymmetric information theory

The relationship between investment and financing, the two basic components of corporate finance, is of significant interest to researchers and practitioners alike. The free cash flow hypothesis and asymmetric information hypothesis are two important theories to explain the relationship between investment expenditure and cash flow. In this paper, we examine how consistency between the interests of management and shareholders influences investment-cash flow sensitivity, and how the nature of the controlling shareholder influences this relationship, so as to analyze how much the free cash flow hypothesis and asymmetric information hypothesis can explain the practice of investment and financing in China. We use pay-performance sensitivity as a proxy for the degree of consistency between shareholders and management interests. We find that investment-cash flow sensitivity is affected not only by financial constraints that caused by asymmetric information, but also by the shareholder-manager agency problem. It is found that the asymmetric information theory has more explanatory power than the shareholder-manager agency theory. In addition, the relationship between investment-cash flow sensitivity and pay-performance sensitivity is affected by the nature of controlling shareholders. Specifically, in the state-owned enterprises, the investment-cash flow sensitivity is mainly ascribed to information asymmetry problems, but in the non-state-owned enterprises, the investment-cash flow sensitivity mainly results from free cash flow. Translated and revised from Kuaiji Yanjiu 会计研究 (Accounting Research), 2007, (10): 73–81     

真实盈余管理的协同共治——基于地区差异视角的研究

真实盈余管理的自由发展已经成为资本市场难以根治的顽疾。基于BMA方法研究2008-2015年A股上市公司真实盈余管理的表现和治理状况,探索宏微观制度因素差异对真实盈余管理的作用影响。结果显示:(1)近年来上市公司更倾向于经营操控来平滑利润、粉饰报表,真实盈余管理水平分布呈中东部地区高、西部地区相对较低的特征;(2)共23项5个角度的可能影响真实盈余管理的指标中,偿债能力、高管薪酬、会计弹性、盈利能力、第一大股东持股比例、托宾Q、审计事务所类型、股权相对集中度、资金占用和法治水平等指标充分地解释了真实活动操控的作用表现;而5个方面因素作用表现为,股利结构中的持股安排对真实盈余管理作用明显,公司特征是影响真实盈余管理的关键因素,     

三峡外迁农村移民社区适应现状研究——来自江苏省大丰市移民安置点的调查

三峡外迁移民是一个特殊的边缘、弱势群体。通过对江苏省大丰市移民安置点的考察,从社区生活环境、人际关系、生产劳动方式、风俗习惯描述了外迁移民社区适应状况,分析了影响移民社区适应的主体因素,提出了针对性的建议。