论积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策配合问题

在现代市场经济中,财政政策与货币政策是调控宏观经济的两大政策。当前,我国实施积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策。这两大政策搭配使用的成效,对经济稳定和高质量发展的作用至关重要。良好的制度环境可为财政与货币政策协调运行以及实施宏观调控奠定坚实基础。宏观经济保持了较高的经济增长率,较低的通货膨胀率和失业率,表明我国积极的财政政策与稳健的货币政策之间的配合达到最佳效果。     

我国货币政策和财政政策效果的比较研究

改革开放以来,由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用.但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同.用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据.     

论金融危机背景下我国财政政策与货币政策的协调

在社会主义市场经济政策背景下,财政政策和货币政策成为国家调控宏观经济的重要政策工具.笔者首先回顾了20世纪90年代以来我国财政政策、货币政策的协调使用状况,然后结合当前形势指出我国目前财政、货币政策配合中仍存在的问题,最后提出了强化财政与贷币政策的协调配合效果的对策建议.     

试论我国宏观调控政策的走向

1998年亚洲金融危机爆发后,我国实行积极的财政政策,取得了显著的效果.随着经济的发展,我国经济发展结构性问题出现,宏观调控政策也实现了从积极的财政政策到稳健财政政策的转变.下一步宏观经济走势仍存在不确定性,宏观调控仍处于关键时期.宏观经济政策应以"稳"为主,继续实施稳健的财政货币政策,促进经济平稳快速增长.     

中国货币政策与财政政策配合实践研究

1998年以来我国实施的积极财政政策对经济的拉动作用非常明显 , 而货币政策的作用则不够理想.随着我国社会主义市场经济体制不断完善,以及我国加入 WTO后的经济结构调整,两大政策配合的重心要从以财政政策协调为主体转向更多地发挥货币政策的调控作用.     

经济周期中的宏观经济政策争论

宏观经济政策的制定往往面临多种选择,主要包括积极的货币政策和财政政策以及消极的货币政策和财政政策。其次还包括规则的政策制定和斟酌使用的货币和财政政策。当经济社会中发生总供给与总需求不一致时,经济社会遭受到冲击,政策制定者需要根据政策制定到发挥效果之间存在的时滞,采取合适的经济政策,从而达到稳定经济的目标。     

我国货币政策与财政政策协调配合的实践与发展

货币政策、财政政策是一个国家调控宏观经济的两大最重要的工具,是现代宏观经济政策的核心.二者之间能否协调配合直接影响着宏观经济调控的综合效果,并对国民经济的健康发展产生极其重要的作用.随着我国社会主义市场经济的发展和财政金融体制改革的顺利进行,如何按照社会主义市场经济体制的要求构筑财政政策与货币政策的协调配合机制,是当前我国宏观调控体系建设的重中之重.本文对我国货币政策与财政政策协调配合的实践与发展进行了分析与评论,并提出了若干政策建议.     

我国的财政政策和货币政策

财政政策和货币政策是一国宏观调控的重要支柱。根据西方经济学的IS-LM模型,若能对财政政策和货币政策进行合理的搭配使用,能使经济政策的效果事半功倍;若没有进行良好的协调,效果就会大打折扣。     

突发事件的经济冲击与宏观政策效果模拟 ——基于DSGE模型的分析

将作为外部冲击的新冠肺炎疫情因素引入动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),分析其对国内经济的冲击情况,并模拟了在无政策干预、货币政策、财政政策、货币政策与财政政策搭配四种情景下的政策效果.研究发现,新冠肺炎疫情短期内会对经济造成巨大冲击,但长期看,社会总需求和通货膨胀受到的影响并不明显,对就业的挤出效应持续时间则较长.同时,货币政策与财政政策协同配合,会产生"政策叠加"效应,促使宏观经济更快复苏,但长期会导致通货膨胀压力增大.     

财政政策与货币政策对区域经济增长的协同效应研究——以吉林省为例

近年来,我国经济发展取得显著成就,这与财政政策和货币政策有效协同使用密不可分.课题组选取吉林省2011-2020年各年度经济数据,对财政政策、货币政策与吉林经济增长之间的关系进行了描述性分析,同时评价了财政与货币政策在吉林经济增长中的配合效果.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.