An Insurance Approach to Risk Analysis of Debt Home Equity Conversion Programs

The use of home equity conversion debt creates a compounding obligation against the home that makes collateral deficiency a potentially dominant risk. Using an insurance methodology, an examination of this risk and its impact upon the potential for home equity conversion is conducted. The paper includes a consideration of how deficiency risk and maximum potential benefits are affected by the interaction of household characteristics with demographic and economic factors.     

Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion

Home equity conversion as presently constituted or proposed usually does not deal well with the problem of moral hazard. Once homeowners know that the risk of poor market performance of their homes is borne by investors, they have an incentive to neglect to take steps to maintain the homes values. They may thus create serious future losses for the investors. A calibrated model for assessing this moral-hazard risk is presented that is suitable for a number of home equity conversion forms: (1) reverse mortgages, (2) home equity insurance, (3) shared-appreciation mortgages, (4) housing partnerships, (5) shared-equity mortgages and (6) sale of remainder interest. Modifications of these forms involving real estate price indexes are proposed that might deal better with the problem of moral hazard.     

Risk and the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage

This article analyzes the risks involved with reverse mortgage insurance and explains the pricing model developed for the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) demonstration. The paper demonstrates how borrower longevity, interest rates and property value changes all affect pricing, and why the HECM model focuses on property value as the primary source of uncertainty. It goes on to explain why a random walk specification was chosen to forecast property values, and how the principal limit factors, which determine cash payments to borrowers in the HECM program, are calculated.     

Stochastic Modeling of Federal Housing Administration Home Equity Conversion Mortgages with Low-Cost Refinancing

Federal Housing Administration-insured reverse mortgages, known as Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs), did not originally have a provision for low-cost refinancing. If a borrower's house value increased faster than expected, the borrower could not tap that additional equity without terminating the first loan and originating a new HECM loan with full closing costs. We test several low-cost refinancing options using a stochastic simulation model that allows interest rates and house prices to vary in historically accurate patterns. Low-cost refinancing decreases the net value of the fund by 54% to $98.5 million, but it remains positive in 80% of the trials.     

Home Equity Conversion Instruments with Fixed Term to Maturity: Alternatives to End of Term Pay-Off

Standard reverse annuity mortgages obligate the lender to take on the risk that an elderly homeowner will desire to remain in a residence after the RAM has reached maturity. In this case, the best the lender can hope for is that the property will have appreciated sufficiently that the loan can be carried at interest only. There is a possibility for lender loss but not gain over contracted return.
Alternatives to the standard RAM are explored in this paper with most attention devoted to shared appreciation and shared equity RAMs. These alternative instruments appear to solve the problem of maturity risk.     

The Role of Home Equity Lending in the Recent Mortgage Crisis

Home equity lending grew rapidly from 2000 to 2008 with balances more than tripling. In this article, we examine the role this phenomenon may have played in increasing aggregate default risk during the mortgage crisis. We also document a relationship between growth in home equity lending and high house price depreciation and first mortgage default during the downturn of 2006–2009. Line of credit growth is shown to be associated with large increases in nonowner‐occupied property purchases, suggesting that home equity lines of credit were tapped to fund such investments, exacerbating default rates during the market downturn.     

股权激励方案研究——以万科股权激励为例

作为上市公司有效的激励方式,股权激励能够缓解公司所有者与管理者的利益冲突,防止管理者的短期行为,弱化委托代理问题,促进公司长期发展。本文选取万科股权激励方案为研究对象,通过阐述相关理论,分析了万科股权激励的主要内容、存在的问题与启示,从而为我们上市公司股权激励提供借鉴。     

An Intertemporal Empirical Analysis of the Renter's Decision to Purchase a Home

In recent years a controversy has developed regarding the responses of different types of families to increases in the relative cost of homeownership. In order to provide evidence on this question, this study employs samples of renters from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to estimate the marginal probability of home purchase and the conditional expectation of the house value to income ratio. These cross-section estimations are performed for two separate time periods: 1968–70 and 1974–76. Among the conclusions reached (by analyzing intertemporal changes in predicted purchase probabilities and value to income ratios) are (1) that first-time homebuyers have not stretched their housing budgets in response to inflationary expectations, and (2) that the probability of purchase by many of these families has declined over time, especially at low income levels.     

浅析股权投资在中国的投资操作

投资者如何科学决策,合理选择对外投资的方式关系重大。本文在全面分析股权投资和债权投资特点的基础上,重点就股权投资投资对象的选择、可行性调研的具体内容进行了诠释。     

An Approach to Assess the Importance of Brand Equity in Acquisition Decisions

Many firms acquire other firms with well-known and proven brands to hedge against the high costs and risks of new product development. A critical question in these acquisition decisions involves the assessment of the importance of brand equity to the acquiring firm. Since the brand equity benefits can vary by firm (and also by the decision maker within a firm) a critical question is how can one systematically decipher the effect of brand equity in acquisition decisions. Using the balance model [8,15], Vijay Mahajan, Vithala Rao, and Rajendra Srivastava present a methodology to determine the importance of brand equity in acquisition decisions. By capturing the idiosyncratic perceived importance of brand equity of every decision maker involved in acquisition decisions, the methodology enables members of a committee within a firm to understand and reconcile their differences in evaluating potential acquisitions. This methodology is applied in a pilot study for the all-suites segment of the hotel industry with data collected from senior executives of five major hotel chains. The authors also discuss benefits, limitations, and further extensions of the suggested approach.     

The Effect of Mortgage Payment Reduction on Default: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinance Program

This article evaluates the effect of payment reduction on mortgage default within the context of the Home Affordable Refinance Program. We find that mortgage default is sensitive to payment reduction using univariate, duration and hazard modeling approaches. A relative risk Cox model of default with time‐varying covariates estimates that a 10% reduction in mortgage payment is associated with about a 10–11% reduction in monthly default hazard for loans. This finding is robust to the inclusion of empirically important mortgage risk drivers (such as current loan‐to‐value and FICO score) as well as controlling for selection effects based on observables.     

Using Multiperiod Variables in the Analysis of Home Improvement Decisions by Homeowners

Though approaching $200 billion a year, spending by homeowners and rental property owners on improvements and repairs to the stock of existing housing units has received little attention in the academic literature. Historically, studies of the determinants of home improvements have focused heavily on the static characteristics of the housing unit (age, value, size, location) and of the occupants (age, income, household composition). This article extends this inquiry by incorporating dynamic factors, namely changes in the composition of the household and previous spending on home improvements. The results of these enhancements are encouraging. Additions of household members and having recently undertaken a major home improvement project are significantly related to home expansion projects.     

最优股权结构设计的博弈分析

股权相对集中是现代股份制度的典型特征。从发起人控股股东角度看，如何实现股权价值最大化是其进行投资及融资的主要目标。为了能够以较低成本进行外源性股权融资，发起人控股股东必须接受外部大股东的适度监督。从外部监督股东看，为了减少发起人控股股东转移公司价值，必须对其予以监督，因而必须持有最低限度的股权比例才有助于实现自身价值最大化。所以，发起人控股股东进行股权融资时，必须设计最优股权结构，最终实现股权融资的激励相容。     

Application of Logit Analysis to the Determination of Tenant Absorption in Condominium Conversion

Frequently, when an analyst is faced with categorical or nominal data, the statistical technique selected is limited to crosstabulation (contingency table) analysis. Logit analysis overcomes some of the problems typically associated with the contingency table-type analyses. This paper demonstrates the application of logit analysis to solve a real estate marketing problem. Specifically, logit analysis is used to assist in the identification of tenant-buyers in condominium conversion projects.     

程序代码的分析与测试

计算机应用水平的不断提高,使得本科非计算机专业的计算机教学重点向程序设计转移。构造程序设计课程考试平台,是保证程序设计课质量的基础。笔者从计算机程序设计教学的角度提出了基于Windows平台下应用程序代码测试方案,并在教学实践中予以实施,取得良好效果。     

股权结构与公司治理绩效实证分析

本文以深、沪两市101家上市公司为样本，分行业竞争环境强弱从股权属性、股权集中度与公司治理绩效的关系进行实证分析，发现行业竞争环境强的上市公司其治理绩效与法人股比例呈三次函数关系，与流通股比例无显著相关关系；行业竞争环境弱的上市公司其治理绩效与国有股比例、法人股比例呈三次函数关系，与流通股比例无显著相关关系；行业竞争环境强的上市公司，股权分散型优于国有控股型，国有控股型优于法人控股型；行业竞争环境弱的上市公司，法人控股型结构优于国有控股型，国有控股型优于股权分散型。最后根据实证分析的结果，提出构建合理股权结构的结论性建议。     

浅析"效率优先、兼顾公平"原则

“效率优先、兼顾公平”原则曾对发展我国市场经济起到过非常重要作用。现在，此原则已不能为调节社会成员收入、解决贫富差距过大起到明显的积极作用。公平与效率不是一个矛盾的两个方面，不存在谁优先的问题。注重效率和公平的主体有所不同，市场应是注重效率的主体、政府应是公平的主体。     

国内外PTA的市场分析

精对苯二甲酸(RTA)是生产聚酯(PET)的主要原料，近几年来发展很快，全球的生产重心已经转移到亚洲，亚洲的PTA生产能力已占全球的70％左右。我国在这几年中，PTA和聚酯工业也在高速发展，PTA生产能力的年均增长率达到了15％左右。而且，从发展的趋势来看，还将持续一段时间。     

国内沥青市场的分析与展望

分析了１９９８年我国沥青市场的变化,沥青市场由卖方市场转入买方市场,进口沥青与国产沥青是竞争的两大对手。１９０９９年沥青需求量增加,但竞争更加激烈。预测了１９９９年沥青市场的发展趋势。     

房地产上市公司股权激励对绩效影响的实证分析

关于股权激励与公司绩效的关系至今尚无定论。而对于特定行业的研究更是少之又少。为此,本文选取了2007～2009年在上海证券交易所上市的房地产公司为样本,分别探讨了高管持股比例,第一大股东持股比例以及股权集中度与公司绩效的关系。通过对三年的数据进行回归分析,结果表明高管持股比例,第一大股东持股比例以及股权集中度与公司绩效都成非正相关关系。在对房地产行业进行分析之前,为了突出差异性,本文先对整个上市公司三者关系进行分析。最后,针对股权激励存在的问题提出几点建议。