基于技术路线图思维的产业发展战略研究——以浙江纺织工业为例

通过对技术路线图的定义、分类、步骤、方法等进行文献回顾,提炼出技术路线图制定的思维方式,然后以浙江纺织工业为例,运用技术路线图思维尝试提出浙江纺织产业技术路线图的编制思路:以强化产业链和提升价值链为基础,围绕"市场—产业—技术"这条主线,在市场拉动和技术推动对产业链的双向驱动下,提出浙江纺织工业转型升级的路径选择。     

企业制定战略规划的有效方法——技术路线图

技术路线图作为一种灵活、结构化和可视化的前瞻方法被广泛用于企业、行业和国家的不同管理层面。本文在深入分析企业战略规划过程和技术路线图的基础上,阐述了技术路线图是企业制定战略规划有效方法的观点。     

技术路线图方法探索与实践应用研究

技术路线图作为一种预测和描绘新兴技术发展路径的工具,已被广泛应用于企业、产业、国家的技术发展规划中,以减少创新和规划过程中的不确定性。然而,目前技术路线图的研究和制定常以定性方法为主,过分依赖专家经验。在剖析技术路线图研究机理的基础上,将文献计量和专利分析引入技术路线图应用中,以减少技术路线图对专家经验的依赖。构建基于文献计量、专利分析和技术路线图的新兴技术产业未来发展分析框架,并以染料敏化太阳能光伏技术产业为例进行了实证研究,验证了该分析框架的可行性和有效性。     

产业技术路线图战略执行力模型构建

技术路线图应当是一个动态的、需要定期更新的开放复杂巨系统,其绘制是一个复杂系统建模过程。产业技术路线图的后期跟进、更新和战略执行对利益相关者来说是一项艰巨的任务,国内外也少有技术路线图与其它管理工具之间的关系研究。从系统思维角度,建立了基于战略愿景和使命动力学机制的产业技术路线图技术战略执行力模型,尝试解决技术路线图后期跟进、更新和战略执行问题,以及技术路线图与产业战略愿景和使命、项目管理工具以及内部流程之间的关系问题。     

产业技术路线图战略执行力模型构建

技术路线图应当是一个动态的、需要定期更新的开放复杂巨系统,其绘制是一个复杂系统建模过程.产业技术路线图的后期跟进、更新和战略执行对利益相关者来说是一项艰巨的任务,国内外也少有技术路线图与其它管理工具之间的关系研究.从系统思维角度,建立了基于战略愿景和使命动力学机制的产业技术路线图技术战略执行力模型,尝试解决技术路线图后期跟进、更新和战略执行问题,以及技术路线图与产业战略愿景和使命、项目管理工具以及内部流程之间的关系问题.     

产业技术路线图战略联盟伙伴竞争与合作关系研究

产业技术路线图的后期跟进、更新和项目执行一直是困扰战略联盟成员的难题,技术路线图与其它管理工具之间的关系研究也一直是国内外学者关注热点。用对立统一观阐述了战略联盟之间的竞争进步与合作共赢理念,以更好地理解联盟成员之间的相互信任和彼此承诺,进一步证明了项目执行除依靠清晰的目标、有效的协调以外,更需要有共同的愿景和强烈的使命感驱动才能确保产业技术路线图后期的项目跟进和执行。最后,构建了竞合理念下的具有系统涌现性的组织协调产业技术路线图战略执行力模型,尝试解决技术路线图战略联盟后期跟进和战略执行力问题。     

技术路线图概念的拓展与延伸——基于企业创新视角的创新路线图分析

在文献回顾的基础上,归纳分析了技术路线图的局限性,并结合科技实践需求以及系统论、企业战略管理理论、企业创新管理理论等相关理论,阐明了创新路线图概念是技术路线图概念的发展。研究表明:创新路线图是企业创新管理领域的一个新概念,可将之看成是技术路线图概念的拓展与延伸,创新路线图包含的研究要素、运用的工具性方法以及具备的功能用途都多于技术路线图。     

引入政策维度的技术路线图分析工具创新

现有政策与产业研究往往把创新政策作用机制视为一个黑箱,缺乏对政策与产业发展互动关系的深入阐释。在传统技术路线图分析框架中引入政策维度,构建了政策-技术路线图（P TRM）分析框架,剖析了供给面政策工具、环境面政策工具和需求面政策工具对技术演进及产业发展的作用机制,并通过P TRM框架在中国风电产业发展分析中的应用,进一步探究了不同类型政策工具在产业技术演进中的作用。     

产业技术路线图后期应用与管理阶段的知识互动活动及其支持系统研究

对产业技术路线图后期应用与管理阶段的知识互动活动进行了探讨,分析了不同知识互动活动发生所需的知识互动场景,即个体学习场景、群体面对面互动场景、群体网络互动与协作场景、产业社区传播场景。在此基础上,设计与开发了产业技术路线图发布平台,该平台具有不同的功能模块,通过这些功能模块为相应知识互动场景下的知识互动活动提供技术和工具支持。     

高校科技成果转化的技术路线图研究

高校科技成果转化是当前企业界和学术界的一个重要议题,技术路线图是一种具有柔性化及动态特征的管理工具,在推动高校科技成果转化过程中,通过技术路线图的制定与实施,有助于把握科技成果转化的发展规律,提高科技成果转化率。文章在传统技术路线图的基础上,构建了高校科技成果转化技术路线图,并对制定高校科技成果转化技术路线图的流程和关键任务进行了探讨和分析,提出了绘制高校科技成果转化技术路线图的方法和范式。     

Integrating fuzzy-set theory into technology roadmap development to support decision-making

Technology roadmap has long been regarded as a useful tool for linking business to technologies. Accordingly, establishing the relationships between market, product and technology elements is an essential part of successful technology roadmap development. Despite the significance as of analysing such relationships, however, few previous attempts have been made to address this issue. To overcome the limitations of previous studies, therefore, this study focused on the relationships between the diverse roadmap layers and aimed to develop a decision-support tool to investigate these relationships. To this end, fuzzy inference was applied to determine the relative importance of link between the roadmap elements, considering the degree of significance as well as the degree of relationship between the two. This study is expected to contribute to the existing roadmap literature by emphasising the value of relationship analysis, and can also be useful in practice by improving the quality of information on technology roadmap.     

Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.     

Implementing technology roadmapping with supplier selection for semiconductor manufacturing companies

The rapid pace of technological innovation in the semiconductor manufacturing industry has necessitated the acquisition of competitive advantage from strategic technology planning. The vital requisite for this is well-timed investment including the replacement of old equipment with advanced new equipment. In such investment, selecting the appropriate semiconductor manufacturing equipment from the appropriate supplier is a key factor for successful technology planning. Therefore, equipment supplier selection should be taken into account in the technology planning of semiconductor manufacturing companies. One of the most widely used tools for technology planning is the technology roadmap (TRM). However, conventional TRMs have not considered the task of supplier selection. To address this limitation, this study proposes an extended, four-layered TRM that adds the layer of equipment supplier to the conventional layers of market, product, and technology. The equipment suppliers to be included in the new layer are selected from the supplier portfolio matrix composed of two performance axes: supplier performance and equipment performance. The candidates of equipment suppliers are placed on the supplier portfolio matrix according to the values of two axes determined by evaluation using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The proposed TRM is expected to be useful for technology planning by adding a consideration for equipment supplier selection in semiconductor manufacturing companies.     

Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules

Recently, technology roadmap has received increasing interest from academics and practitioners alike, as it is a powerful and inherently flexible approach in terms of architectural structure and construction process. However, the potential benefit may not be fully exploited due to the difficulty in customizing roadmaps to fit specific needs and/or to accommodate unusual circumstances. In response, the main purpose of this research is to provide guidance for customizing roadmaps. Specifically, we adopt a modularization method for mass customization and suggest a set of different roadmaps for different purposes such as forecasting, planning, and administration. In addition, a web-based system is developed to facilitate the roadmapping activities, which in turn ensures the creation, dissemination, and upkeep of roadmaps. With the system having a customization function, a set of customized roadmaps can be generated simply by selecting the application purpose and then meeting the input requirements. The function helps prospective users design roadmap formats and contents.     

英国人工智能路线图及对我国的启示

人工智能是新一轮科技革命和产业变革的必争领域之一。英国高度重视人工智能发展,成立了专门的人工智能办公室,并于2021年1月发布人工智能路线图。本文介绍了英国人工智能发展基本情况和路线图的主要内容,并对中国的人工智能发展提出了建议。     

The semiconductor silicon industry roadmap: Epochs driven by the dynamics between disruptive technologies and core competencies

The resource-based perspective has done much to identify idiosyncratic firm attributes that may be a principal source of competitive advantages. Unfortunately, there has been little systematic industry evidence to support the strategic importance of core competence, nor has there been much work on the temporal or cumulative nature of core capabilities within an industrial setting. Further, little or no research has been performed demonstrating how the advent of technological discontinuities or disruptive technologies plays a part in creating epochs in technology competency development and the roadmap of an industry. In this study, we analyze the evolutionary and cumulative nature of core capabilities and their interactions with technological discontinuities from a market-driven perspective. We have studied the evolution of 167 firms through the 50-year history of the semiconductor silicon industry. Over time, there were several structural shifts in the necessary competencies through the advent of disruptive technologies. In the last 30 years, however, the change in the required competencies has been more cumulative in nature. We summarize this in a roadmap detailing the epochs in the semiconductor silicon industry.     

对荷兰大型研究设施路线图的解读

大型研究设施是探索科学前沿不可或缺的工具,是国内与国际合作创新的重要基地。目前,既有传统的单点大型自然科学研究设施,也有以信息通信技术为支撑的多点、虚拟、新兴的大型人文科学研究设施。目前,荷兰有66个大型研究设施,其中,单点设施占49%,多点设施和虚拟设施各占20%多。荷兰大型研究设施路线图对入选的设施有诸多要求,其中包括:因获得投资而取得科学突破;研究领域要反映荷兰和欧洲热点问题;设施建成后将产生知识聚集效应,吸引和留住顶级人才。研究荷兰大型研究设施路线图的形式、内涵和编制方法,期望有助于我国大科学设施建设,有利于中荷大科学合作。     

Using a design structure matrix to support technology roadmapping for product–service systems

In light of the increasing trend of the use of the product–service system (PSS), tools that can help to analyse complex relationships among products, services and technologies and furthermore support decision-making during their planning are needed. To meet these needs, this study proposes a design structure matrix (DSM)-based technology roadmap (TRM) approach and a case study on mobile services is conducted. While PSS planning may involve a number of teams and organisations, the DSM-based TRM can help with such complex collaborative technology planning and hence lead to better performance. Methodologically, this is one of the first attempts to link DSM and TRM, both of which are widely used in planning stages, and thus is expected to contribute to the advances in TRM methodologies. In practice, this study describes an overall roadmapping process for the PSS, thus providing worthwhile guidelines available to organisations that are in charge of the TRM.