Financial Distress and Underemployment

A reasonable model of the labour market over the business cycle should predict, among other things, that (a) in very low states of product demand there may be too little employment from an efficiency perspective, but as the state improves employment will increase until ultimately it is efficiently deployed, and (b) in low states of demand, a worker's welfare level will be "low" and as the state of the world improves so will the worker's welfare, except, possibly, at high levels of demand where the worker's utility may start to fall. Surprisingly, there does not exist a labour contract based model that is consistent with predictions (a) and (b). In fact, the standard results in the literature are if leisure is a normal good then there will be too much employment in essentially all states of the world and the welfare of the worker declines as the state of the world improves. In this paper a labour contracting model is constructed that is consistent with the above mentioned predictions. Two necessary ingredients in the model are the possibility of financial distress in low demand states and "partial provability" in contracting. Financial distress can be viewed as frustrating renegotiation and, thus, inefficient outcomes are possible in equilibrium. Partial provability_the ability of an informed player to make verifiable claims or statements to an uninformed player_eliminates certain kinds of inefficient outcomes. In particular, it eliminates the possibility that, in equilibrium, there is too much employment. This last result is interesting in itself because it is commonly believed that normality of leisure necessarily implies that labour contracting models will generate employment levels that are too high from an efficiency perspective.     

Efficient Transfer of Aging Provisions in Private Health Insurance

In German-style private health insurance contracts, aging provisions are used to flatten premium profiles. An individual would like to change insurer if she perceives a low service quality. The first-best optimum is characterized by provision transfers upon insurer changes which are higher for high risks and may be negative for low risks. Should the actual risk status not be verifiable, provision transfers have to be uniform. Efficient transfers will equalize consumption across periods and states if high risks are deterred from switching. Otherwise, the optimum transfer balances the distortion of incentives for high-risk and low-risk individuals.     

Private versus verifiable interim performance evaluations under uncertainty

I study the trade-off between private and verifiable interim performance evaluations under uncertainty. More uncertainty leads to higher agency costs if the interim evaluation is public and verifiable but lower agency costs if the interim evaluation is private and unverifiable.     

Secrecy, two-sided bias and the value of evidence

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions on players' preferences for a verifiable message game to possess a separating equilibrium and/or a pooling equilibrium, as well as sufficient conditions for every equilibrium of such a game to be pooling. We also characterize all nonseparating equilibria, and use this property to show that less information might be conveyed in any equilibrium of a verifiable message game than in some equilibrium of the cheap talk game with the same parameters.     

The impact of prudence on optimal prevention revisited

We re-examine the link between absolute prudence and self-protection activities. We show that the level of effort chosen by an agent with decreasing absolute prudence is larger than the optimal effort chosen by a risk-neutral agent if the degree of absolute prudence is less than a threshold that is utility-independent and empirically verifiable.     

Monitoring and collusion with 'soft' information

In the standard principal-supervisor-agent model with collusion,Tirole (1986) shows that employing a supervisor is profitablefor the principal if the supervisor's signal of the agent'scost of production is 'hard' (i.e., verifiable but hideable).Anecdotal evidence suggests that information is sometimes 'soft'(i.e., unverifiable). We show that, in fact, it is profitableto employ a supervisor when information is 'soft' even thoughthe three parties can collude. Therefore, standard applicationsof the principal-supervisor-agent model to regulation and auditinghave more scope than previously thought.     

GRANTING AN EXIT OPTION TO CONDUCT AN AUDIT

We study a principal–agent relationship with auditing in which information from an audit is ‘soft’– by conducting an audit, the principal observes the agent's private information, but cannot obtain verifiable evidence on the information. Moreover, the principal's auditing effort is unverifiable in our model. Therefore, besides the agent's misreporting incentive, there is the principal's incentive to accuse the truthful agent even without auditing. If the principal's auditing effort is verifiable, granting no exit option to the agent is optimal although the principal can still accuse a truthful agent after the audit. We show that when the principal's auditing effort is unverifiable, granting an exit option to the agent and auditing are complementary. Without granting an exit option to the agent, no auditing is optimal, and the principal grants an exit option to conduct a sincere audit, which in turn mitigates the agent's misreporting incentive. Our analysis also reveals that, when the cost of auditing is sufficiently large, the principal conducts more sincere audits with a smaller amount of penalty.     

Eliciting socially optimal rankings from unfair jurors

A jury must provide a ranking of contestants (students applying for scholarships or Ph.D. programs, gymnasts in a competition, etc.). There exists a true ranking which is common knowledge among the jurors, but is not verifiable. The socially optimal rule is that the contestants be ranked according to the true ranking. The jurors are partial and, for example, may have friends (contestants that they would like to benefit) and enemies (contestants that they would like to prejudice). We study necessary and sufficient conditions on the jury under which the socially optimal rule is implementable. These conditions incorporate strong informational requirements, particularly with respect to mechanism designer.     

Full revelation of information in Sender-Receiver games of persuasion

We provide necessary and sufficient conditions on both players' preferences and information that can be certified for a Sender-Receiver game to possess a separating equilibrium, as well as sufficient conditions for every equilibrium of such a game to be separating. Accordingly, we generalize Seidmann and Winter's [D.J. Seidmann, E. Winter, Strategic information transmission with verifiable messages, Econometrica 65 (1997) 163-170] results to games with partial provability.     

INPUT QUALITY,RELATIONAL CONTRACTS AND INTERNATIONAL OUTSOURCING

Abstract. This paper presents a Ricardian trade model in which the quality of intermediate inputs affects the productivity of labour at the final production stage. The role of contracting frictions is shown by comparing the chain of comparative advantage obtained with full information with that resulting when the quality of inputs is affected by actions that are not verifiable in court. Conditions are derived under which parties can use the potential for repeat business (relational contracts) to sustain efficient production choices. These results yield predictions for how country and industry characteristics will affect the level of contracting frictions.     

The Economics of Clear Advice and Extreme Options

I study a principal–agent model in which the agent collects information and then chooses a verifiable action. I show that the principal can find it desirable to constrain the agent's action set even though there is no disagreement about the ranking of actions ex post . The elimination or penalization of „intermediate” actions, which are optimal when information is poor, improves incentives for information collection. I characterize optimal action sets when the agent is infinitely risk averse with respect to income shocks and optimal incentive schemes when the agent is risk neutral.     

A Sufficient Condition for Topological Chaos with an Application to a Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper provides an easily verifiable sufficient condition for topological chaos for unimodal maps which can be satisfied when the well-known Li–Yorke condition is not satisfied. It then shows how this result can be applied to a model of endogenous growth with externalities to establish the existence of chaotic equilibrium growth paths in that framework. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C61, D90, O41.     

共持重仓股“变脸”对基金家族的连锁效应研究

文章对股票"变脸"给出可检验的定叉,采用Logistic面板数据模型实证研究了股票"变脸"对整个基金家族影响的传导过程.研究发现同一基金家族内部共同持股程度显著高于家族外部;家族共同持股导致股票"变脸"对单只基金业绩的影响扩散到整个家族,甚至引发整个家族业绩突变;重仓股"变脸"引发基金家族危机的原因是家族高度共同持股,而基金治理中激励机制的安排可能是基金家族高度共同持股的诱因.     

Start-ups, venture capitalists, and the capital gains tax

A model of start-up finance with double moral hazard is proposed. Entrepreneurs have ideas and technical competence, but lack own resources as well as commercial experience. Venture capitalists (VCs) provide start-up finance and managerial support. Both types of agents thus jointly contribute to the firm's success, but neither type's effort is verifiable. We find that the market equilibrium is biased towards inefficiently low entrepreneurial effort and venture capital support. In this situation, the capital gains tax is particularly harmful. The introduction of a small tax impairs effort and advice and leads to a first-order welfare loss. Several other policies towards venture capital and start-up entrepreneurship are also investigated.     

Optimal Social Insurance with Linear Income Taxation*

We study optimal social insurance aimed at insuring disability risk in the presence of linear income taxation. Optimal disability insurance benefits rise with previous earnings. Optimal insurance is incomplete even though disability risks are exogenous and verifiable so that moral hazard in disability insurance is absent. Imperfect insurance is optimal because it encourages workers to insure themselves against disability by working and saving more, thereby alleviating the distortionary impact of the redistributive income tax on labor supply and savings.     

Persuasion with communication costs

This paper studies strategic transmission of verifiable information with reporting costs that continuously increase in the precision of the report. Contrary to previous literature, it is shown that the unraveling result first derived by Milgrom (1981) is relatively robust to costly reporting. A separating equilibrium exists even with arbitrarily high reporting costs. Intuitively, the costs work as a signaling device and a combination of disclosure of information and costly signaling accomplishes full separation. With reporting costs there are typically multiple equilibria. For example, a pooling equilibrium exists if and only if the reporting costs are high. Finally, a separating equilibrium exists when the receiver has to make a costly effort in order to access the information in a report, as long as this cost is not too high.     

Validating pharmaceutical product claims: questions a formulary committee should ask

Abstract

Claims, justifying the acceptance and placement of new products on health system formularies, are all too often presented in terms that are either unverifiable or only verifiable in a timeframe that is of no practical benefit to formulary committees. One solution is for formulary committees to request that (i) all predictive claims made should be capable of empirical testing and (ii) manufacturers in making submissions should be asked to submit a protocol that details how their claims are to be assessed. Evaluation of claims can provide not only a significant input to ongoing disease area and therapeutic reviews, but can also provide a needed link to comparative effectiveness research and value-based healthcare. This paper presents a set of protocol standards (PROST) together will questions that should be addressed in a protocol review.     

Asset market equilibrium with short-selling and differential information

We introduce differential information in the asset market model studied by Cheng J Math Econ 20(1):137–152,1991, Dana and Le Van J Math Econ 25(3):263–280,1996 and Le Van and Truong Xuan J Math Econ 36(3): 241–254, 2001. We prove an equilibrium existence result assuming that the economy’s information structure satisfies the conditional independence property. If private information is not publicly verifiable, agents have incentives to misreport their types and therefore contracts may not be executed in the second period. We also show that under the conditional independence property equilibrium contracts are always executable.     

Campaign Advertising and Voter Welfare

This paper investigates the role of campaign advertising and the opportunity of legal restrictions on it. An electoral race is modelled as a signalling game with three classes of players: many voters, two candidates, and one interest group. The group has non–verifiable insider information on the candidates' quality and, on the basis of this information, offers a contribution to each candidate in exchange for a favourable policy position. Candidates spend the contributions they receive on non–directly informative advertising. This paper shows that: (1) a separating equilibrium exists in which the group contributes to a candidate only if the insider information about that candidate is positive; (2) although voters are fully rational, a ban on campaign advertising can be welfare–improving; and (3) split contributions may arise in equilibrium (and, if they arise too often, they are detrimental to voters).