Stochastic unit root processes: Maximum likelihood estimation,and new Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests

We show in this study that the maximum likelihood estimators of stochastic unit root (STUR) processes are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We also present two new tests for STUR. We first propose a Lagrange multiplier test and show that it has a standard χ² distribution asymptotically. We also propose a likelihood ratio test and show that it has an asymptotic distribution of 50–50 mixture of χ² and a point mass at 0. As an empirical example, we test the existence of STUR in the Canadian real exchange rate and explore the implication of STUR on the validity of purchasing power parity.     

A note on the Wald,LR and LM tests and misspecification

In this note, we investigate sensitivity of the Wald, LR and LM tests to specification error. It is shown that these three tests are very sensitive to specification error, but the LM test is relatively superior to other two tests under certain situations.     

Weighted symmetric tests for a unit root: response functions,power, test dependence and test conflict

The most frequently applied test statistics for a unit root are the Dickey–Fuller tests, which are built into many econometric packages along with MacKinnon's empirical response functions. This article provides empirical response functions for some easy to compute alternative test statistics that are generally much more powerful than the Dickey–Fuller tests; specifically, these are the Dickey–Fuller tests and the weighted symmetric versions of the and tests. The empirical response functions presented here take into account adjustments for lag length in the maintained regression, and also extend the design of the simulation experiments compared to previous work. A second aspect of this study concerns the widespread practice in applied econometrics of using more than one test for the same feature without an assessment of the implications for the cumulative significance level and probability of test conflict. Tests for a unit root being are a leading example of this practice. Using the extended set of unit root tests considered here, the extent of test dependence is simulated and overall type one error calculated. Two empirical applications illustrate the key principles.     

Comparative costs and conservation of wild species in situ, e.g. orangutans

The extent to which conservation is feasible is constrained by budgets and the financial sacrifice stakeholders are willing to bear. Therefore a possible objective for conserving a species is to minimise the cost of achieving that stated aim. For example, if a minimum viable population (MVP) of a species is to be conserved, the size and type of habitats reserved for this could be selected to minimise cost. This requires consideration of the comparative (relative) opportunity costs of reserving different land types for conservation. A general model is developed to demonstrate this and is applied to the case of the orangutan. In the ecological literature, recommendations for reserving different types of land for conservation have been based on comparisons of either the absolute economic returns they generate if converted to commercial use or on differences in the density of a species they support. These approaches are shown to be deficient because they ignore relative trade-offs between species population and economic conversion gains at alternative sites. The proposed model is illustrated for orangutan conservation.     

垄断性资源定价、竞合博弈与序贯决策——以铁矿为例

文章依据铁矿石价格谈判的背景和原则,构建了供应链上游资源垄断者和下游两生产企业之间竞争及竞合的两个博弈定价模型。研究表明,供应链上游资源垄断者主要依据下游生产企业的利润水平确定其资源定价,影响下游议价能力的根本因素是其产量而非谈判技巧,竞合策略下价格谈判的先行者将获得更大的产量和利润优势。算例仿真结果则显示,与竞争策略相比,合作谈判策略能有效提高供应链下游生产企业的议价能力,降低上游垄断者的资源定价能力,有效缩减整体谈判成本。     

博物馆：城市记忆、标志及通向未来文化的桥梁——以江苏南通市为例

博物馆,对于城市功能而言,涵盖面不可能很广很大,但在城市发展中、特别是文化的承上启下和继承创新中的地位、功能和作用的确不可或缺。它扮演的是过往与历史见证者的角色,但也是未来文化、特别是先进文化创造、发展的必要基础和条件。博物馆担负着独特的文化使命。已经达到一定规模的城市不可能没有博物馆,博物馆在城市历史演进和不断扩大过程中的角色无可替代。一、城市文化传统及其历史记忆留存在各级各类博物馆每一个城市都有属于自己的历史,每一个城市都有区别于其他城市的历史传统和独特记忆。城市的传统和记忆既留存在人们的脑海当中…     

汇率变动、对外贸易与经济增长——以湖南省为例

选取了2005年7月汇改以来至2013年12月的季度数据,通过建立联立方程模型,利用3SLS(三阶段最小二剩法)计量方法就人民币汇率的变动对湖南省对外贸易、经济增长的影响进行实证研究。实证结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率升值1%,经济增长速度降低0.612%;湖南省进出口额的增长速度降低2.79%,人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南省经济总量的增长有紧缩效应。     

住房市场、银行信贷与宏观经济关联分析——以山东为例

文章通过对信贷支持的住房市场进行系统分析和经济学分析,对山东月度房地产数据进行协整关系检验,建立山东住房市场系统均衡函数和VAR模型,通过线性Granger因果检验,得出山东省房地产市场与银行信贷以及宏观经济关系的实证分析,揭示了住房市场发展的客观规律:宏观经济环境是影响房地产市场发展的最关键因素,影响银行贷款态度和企业及消费者的市场预期,良好的宏观经济环境刺激信贷发放,刺激投资和消费,银行信贷加大了房地产市场的波动,增加了产业风险。     

A wavelet-based panel unit-root test in the presence of an unknown structural break and cross-sectional dependency,with an application of purchasing power parity theory in developing countries

This article introduces two different non-parametric wavelet-based panel unit-root tests in the presence of unknown structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies in the data. These tests are compared with a previously suggested non-parametric wavelet test, the parameteric Im-Pesaran and Shin (IPS) test and a Wald type of test. The results from the Monte Carlo simulations clearly show that the new wavelet-ratio tests are superior to the traditional tests both in terms of size and power in panel unit-root tests because of its robustness to cross-section dependency and structural breaks. Based on an empirical Central American panel application, we can, in contrast to previous research (where bias due to structural breaks is simply disregarded), find strong, clear-cut support for purchasing power parity (PPP) in this developing region.     

农业遗产保护和开发模式的探讨——以浙江省为例

中国悠久的农业文明发展史留下了丰富的农业遗产,在城镇化快速发展的今天,农业遗产的保护和开发亟待提高认识,处理好保护和开发利用的关系,农业遗产的保护和开发以活态保护和农村经济社会可持续发展相结合为原则,在发展思路上和各类物质或非物质遗产项目的申报相结合,和生态环境保护、生物多样性保护相结合,从发展生态循环农业入手。农业遗产保护和开发利用的典型模式有生态农业观光园,结合地方农业特色举办节庆活动建设休闲农家乐基地,打造乡村旅游度假胜地。     

关于江西利用外资的思考

改革开放以来,江西在吸引和利用外资方面所取得的重大成就,尤其是近年外商直接投资实现持续、平稳增长,每一个江西人都为之兴奋。然而,在取得巨大成就的同时,也存在不少问题。以鲜活的数据为依据,着重从对比分析的角度探讨其问题,分析其成因,从而提出一些切实可行的政策、策略。     

Territory as the Kernel of the Nation: Space,Time and Nationalism in Israel/Palestine

The article deals with the relations between time and space in the making of modern nations, focusing on conditions of territorial conflicts in general, and on expansionist 'ethnocratic' societies in particular. Under such conditions, it is argued, territory (the 'where' of the nation) becomes a most vital 'kernel' of national mobilisation, while the history of national origins (the 'when') tends to become mythical and homogenous, used chiefly to boost the territorial struggle. A geographical critique of dominant theories of nationalism is presented, focusing on their 'spatial blindness' and analytical fusion of nation and state. These deficiencies are conspicuous in ethnocratic societies, where the 'national project' does not aspire to merge nation and state, but on the contrary, to essentialise and segregate group identities. While the 'when' and the 'where' of the nation are still intimately intertwined, it is the latter that provides the core of nation-building. The claim is substantiated through a detailed account of Zionist and Palestinian nationalisms. In recent decades, the struggle over land has shaped the two national cultures as intensely territorial, with a wide range of symbols, values and practices intimately attached to settlement and land control, pitting Jewish hitnahalut (settlement) verses Palestinian sumud (steadfastness). Territorial issues, however, remain the 'kernel' of Zionist and Palestinian national mobilisation.     

“省直管县”改革绩效、问题及对策研究--以广东省为例

随着经济的逐步发展,“市管县”体制暴露出加剧市县矛盾、增加行政成本、影响行政效能、制约县域经济发展等问题。与“市管县”体制相比,“省直管县”体制改革在减少行政层级、降低行政成本、发展县域经济等方面具有重要作用。近年来,在国家政策的导向下,“省直管县”财政体制改革在我国逐步推广,已成为我国深化财税体制改革的重要内容。以广东省为例,在全面分析“省直管县”改革绩效的基础上,剖析改革存在的各种阻力,积极探索改革实现路径,从而构建符合国情的地方财政管理体制。     

农村劳动力流动、土地流转与农业规模化经营研究——以河南省固始县为例

改革开放后我国农村劳动力大规模流动,但流动过程是以青壮年男性为主的"候鸟式"循环流动,他们"弃农不弃地"、"离土不离乡".进入21世纪,由于农村劳动力流动政策的转变和"新生代"成为流动大军的主体,常年外出的农村劳动力在增加,举家外出者占到一定比例,流动方式逐渐由"候乌式"向"迁徙式"转变.基于此,本文对我国农村劳动力流动的趋势与特点进行了梳理,并以河南省固始县为例,分析了农村劳动力流动对土地流转和农业规模化经营所带来的契机.     

新型研发机构在产学研深度融合中的作用探析——以瑞士比尔创新园为例

长期以来,在传统的科研管理体制的影响下,产学研管理体制不健全、合作行为短期化和形式化等问题严重制约了科技成果转化和产业化的推进。新一轮全球科技革命与产业变革正加速推动“科学”向“技术”转化,对科技治理体系形成一系列新挑战。为了跨越从基础研究到技术创新的“死亡谷”,国外创造性地发展了一批各具特色的新型研发机构,这些机构已经成为产学研用协同创新的重要平台和成果转化的关键支撑。本文剖析了构建新时代产学研深度融合的现实路径,在成功借鉴瑞士比尔创新园全链条创新服务模式经验的基础上,提出推动新型研发机构建设的对策建议。     

失地农民就业的类型、路径与政府引导——以南京市为例

失地农民的就业问题日益演变为一个社会问题。顺利实现就业是解决失地农民生活来源和保持社会稳定的关键所在。从对南京市的调查来看,64%的失地农民实现了城市就业。他们主要通过政府部门、职业中介以及个人关系网络等渠道,从事个体经营,或在私营民营企业和集体企事业单位就业,呈现出政府安置就业、失地农民自谋职业中的“自雇型”和“受雇型”就业的独特类型。针对这一现状,地方政府应该采取相应的政策措施,进一步提高失地农民的就业率。     

Structural modeling, including temporal dimensions as an aid to study complex system governabilities and to foresee unforecastable alternative futures

To describe evolutions of phenomena, we have to design some kind of models of the studied field. Systems analysis offers a possible way in this respect. Structural modeling is the simplest available technique. Very often, structures of the real world are actually complex and not simply hierarchized. Moreover, we have to take into account the time-related dimensions in order to develop more realistic structural models. Thus some mechanical aid is required to explore the intricate mesh of interacting things. We described a coherent set of programs, and the input-output data language is called STRINGDALE (Structural Modeling Data Language, E added for euphony).Complex systems too often cross the threshold of internal instability, which should not prevent defining their governability in accordance with given policies. Here also the help of the computer is very fruitful in searching for internal stresses and conflicts behind their evolution. Last but not least, conservative results are inevitably obtained when studying a system modeled by a steady structure closed on itself. Inherently, a system is comparatively closed on itself, although always interacting with the outside environment. We propose to model this environment by a discrete set of random foreseeable events that affect system evolution when they occur. We show how strategies of governability are modified when taking into account these probabilistic events.     

农家乐的服务质量、顾客满意度及忠诚度的关系研究——以天目山地区为例

通过问卷调查和当面访谈相结合的方法,以天目山景区周边的农家乐为例,对其服务质量、顾客满意及忠诚度的关系进行研究。结果表明,农家乐服务质量对于顾客满意度、顾客忠诚度具有正向关系,顾客满意度对于顾客忠诚度也具有正向关系。为进一步提升整体农家乐服务质量,增加顾客满意度,提高顾客的重游意愿和推荐意愿,提出相关建议和意见,以期促进天目山景区周边农家乐的可持续发展。     

资源整合、制度创新与发展产业集群——以武汉市环保产业为例

环保产业作为战略性的新兴产业和新的经济增长点,是国家调整产业结构重点扶持的领域。武汉市发展环保产业既有国家政策支持、宏观环境良好、市场前景广阔、科教资源丰富和区位优势明显等发展机遇和有利条件,同时又存在市场信息资源整合不够、科教资源整合不够、政策资源整合不够与制度创新不足等发展障碍。武汉市发展环保产业必须实施资源整合,创新制度和体制,从而更好地促进武汉市环保产业集群的大力发展,把其建设成为国内领先、国际有影响的节能环保产业基地。     

Impacts of an EC carbon/energy tax and deregulating thermal power supply on CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions

Emission of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x are all closely linked to the burning of fossil fuels. Here we report on simulations done by linking a Sectoral European Energy Model (SEEM), covering energy demand in nine Western European countries, with the emission-transport-deposition model RAINS developed by IIASA. The study analyses emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x, deposition of sulphur and nitrogen and the extent of areas where the critical load for sulphur is exceeded in year 2000 under four different energy scenarios. Two different sets of future behavioural patterns for the thermal electric power production sector are considered. In one regime, called the plan-efficient regime, the sector is assumed to follow official plans with regard to investment in new capacity. In the other regime, called the cost-efficient regime, the thermal power sector is assumed to behave in a cost minimizing manner. The effects of the proposed EC carbon/energy tax are studied under both regimes, giving rise to altogether four scenarios.In both regimes the effect of the EC tax is to reduce emissions by between 6 and 10 per cent in year 2000 relative to the scenarios without the tax. A change of regime, from the regulated, plan-efficient regime to the market-based, cost-efficient regime, will, by itself, reduce emissions of CO₂ and NO_x by approximately 3 per cent, while SO₂ emissions are reduced by 13 per cent. The EC tax will reduce sulphur deposition by more than 5 per cent in the nine model countries under the plan-efficient regime. A change of regime further reduces the total deposition by 9 per cent. The area where depositions exceed the critical load is reduced by approximately 6 per cent in year 2000 by the tax in both regimes. Changing from the plan-efficient to the cost-efficient regime has a similar impact.Although the emission reductions due to the EC tax may seem modest, they are shown to have a sizeable effect on the technological abatement costs of reaching targets like those prescribed in the Sofia protocol on the stabilisation of NO_x emissions, and the Helsinki protocol on SO₂ emission reductions. This is part of what can be considered to be secondary benefits of the EC carbon/energy tax.