Design and evaluation of an economic experiment via the Internet

The paper investigates whether Internet experiments are an appropriate alternative to traditional laboratory experiments. For an economic experiment of individual decision making results obtained over the Internet are compared to results obtained in the laboratory using exactly the same software. Of particular interest are differences in individual behavior. Our main findings are: (1) running our own experiment on the Internet and in the laboratory generated similar data when economic decision behavior is concerned. (2) Variance in economic decision behavior is generally higher on the Internet experiment. (3) Decision times are shorter on the Internet. (4) Internet software provides a helpful platform for implementing economic experiments. The paper also reports on design challenges and how we have solved them.     

国有商业银行与股份制商业银行的长期贷款特征差异研究——基于我国上市公司长期借款数据

选择2009年上市公司的银行贷款为研究样本,将其分为仅获得国有商业银行和仅获得股份制商业银行贷款的两组相对立的样本,对其进行独立样本T检验,研究两种性质银行在选择贷款客户、贷款定价上的差异。以期对我国金融政策的完善方面提供有益的借鉴。     

Perceived usefulness of Technological Forecasting techniques

Although there are a number of powerful technological forecasting (TF) techniques, not all of them are perceived equally useful, nor are they applicable in all situations. The technique used depends on the forecasting objectives of the firm, which in turn depend on the nature of the firm or industry. In this article, the perceived usefulness of some of the common TF techniques (based on a survey) is analyzed. The results lead to the categorization of the techniques into two distinct groups. The relationship between the industry and its preference for a specific category of TF is suggested. Some suggestions are offered for increasing the usefulness of TF within a firm.     

Patterns of alignment in alliance structure and innovation

Alliances are becoming an increasingly common strategy for product development despite the intrinsic tension between alliance logic and innovation logic. This paper investigates the development of alliance structures during the exploration phase of the innovation process. Based on a study of five service development alliances in the telecom industry, three patterns are identified by which the alliance structure and the innovation are brought into alignment. Such alignment seems to be a necessary condition for the transition into commercialization. The patterns identified are: (1) Learning about the innovation may trigger changes in the alliance structure; (2) Learning about the innovation may suggest changes in the alliance structure that are impossible to implement, however, thus triggering changes in the innovation; (3) Planning the future alliance structure may suggest changes in the innovation. Based on these patterns, some conclusions and implications are identified, for both theory and practice.     

The impact of immigration on the human capital of natives

"Implications of the quantity (number) and quality (skill) of immigration on the destination economy are analyzed, including impacts on value added, wages, quasi rents, rates of return, and the skill distribution of the native labor force. Quantity-quality trade-offs are considered for both immigrant and native workers. Medium- and long-run labor-supply responses by natives to immigrant-induced changes in wage rates are shown to have second-order effects which subtantively affect the impacts of immigrants. The impact of immigration policy depends on the quality as well as quantity of immigrants, the time horizon, and the speed of factor market adjustment."     

通功易事：团队交互记忆系统有效性的一项元分析

在团队中构建团队交互记忆系统的优势日益凸显,运用元分析方法明晰这种基于个人专长的合作方式对团队效能的影响机制,能够有效指导团队管理实践。基于对团队交互记忆系统有效性的97个实证研究、300个效应值、50 903个独立样本的元分析,检验团队交互记忆系统与团队效能的相关性,以及情境因素和测量因素的调节效应。研究发现：团队交互记忆系统能够促进团队效能,其中,对团队行为的作用强度最高,对团队绩效与团队情感的作用强度相当;专长—可信—协调三维度结构具有较高的区分效度,其中,可信和协调维度对团队效能的作用强度相当,且强于专长维度;地区文化、团队规模、组织类型和测量方式是重要调节因素,当团队来自儒家文化地区、高新科技企业以及属于小规模团队时,作用强度更高。     

Patterns of alignment in alliance structure and innovation

Alliances are becoming an increasingly common strategy for product development despite the intrinsic tension between alliance logic and innovation logic. This paper investigates the development of alliance structures during the exploration phase of the innovation process. Based on a study of five service development alliances in the telecom industry, three patterns are identified by which the alliance structure and the innovation are brought into alignment. Such alignment seems to be a necessary condition for the transition into commercialization. The patterns identified are: (1) Learning about the innovation may trigger changes in the alliance structure; (2) Learning about the innovation may suggest changes in the alliance structure that are impossible to implement, however, thus triggering changes in the innovation; (3) Planning the future alliance structure may suggest changes in the innovation. Based on these patterns, some conclusions and implications are identified, for both theory and practice.     

Integrated water and economic modelling of the impacts of water market instruments on the South African economy

A static computable general equilibrium model of South Africa is adapted to compare new taxes on water demand by two industries, namely forestry, and irrigated field crops. Comparisons are made with respect to both the short and the long run, in terms of three target variables, namely (i) the environment; (ii) the economy; and (iii) equity. Since the taxes on the two industries do not raise the same amount of revenue, the target variables are calculated per unit of real government revenue raised by the new taxes (also referred to as the marginal excess burdens of the taxes). The model results are robust for moderate values of the water elasticity of demand in the two industries, in both the long and the short run. The tax on irrigated field crops performs better in terms of all three the target variables in the short run. In the long run the tax on irrigated filed crops is better in terms of water saving, but reduces real GDP and the consumption by poor households.     

Decision time and steps of reasoning in a competitive market entry game

Entry decisions in market entry games usually depend on the belief about how many others are entering the market, the belief about the own rank in a real effort task, and subjects’ risk preferences. In this paper I am able to replicate these basic results and examine two further dimensions: (i) the level of strategic sophistication, which has a positive impact on entry decisions, and (ii) the impact of time pressure, which has a (partly) negative influence on entry rates. Furthermore, when ranks are determined using a real effort task, differences in entry rates are explainable by higher competitiveness of males. Additionally, I show that individual characteristics are more important for the entry decision in more competitive environments.     

Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS) with publications in the area of academic efficiency studies: what are the historical roots of this research topic?

In this study, we explore the historical roots of the relatively new topic in scientometrics of academic efficiency assessments. We are interested in the contributions of researchers from the past which have been revealed as important for the topic in the long run. The technique of Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS) has been recently introduced which is based on the analysis of the frequency with which references are cited in the publications of a specific research field (here: academic efficiency assessments). The study is based on papers conducted for a systematic review of empirical articles on technical efficiency in academic research production: 60 papers (published between 1992 and 2012) and 1314 cited references. Results indicated that 5 peaks are clearly identifiable until 2000. They correspond, respectively, to the years 1957 (The founding article of Farrell), 1978 (Proposition of a new promising approach: the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by Charnes et al.), 1988 (Research-teaching multi-output model and integration of quality indicators), 1990 (DEA in the service of Research Assessment Exercise) and 1997 (Introduction of weight restrictions in DEA). The peaks are described with the underlying publications and recent developments (since 2000) in the area of academic efficiency studies are outlined.     

Macroeconomic relevance of credit channels: Evidence from an emerging economy under inflation targeting

This article presents a contribution to the empirical literature concerning credit channels in emerging economies. Based on data from 2002 to 2009, three sets of GMM models are considered in this article for analyzing the macroeconomic relevance of the credit channels in Brazil: (i) the first set analyzes the effects of shocks on economic variables which are essential for credit supply; (ii) the second set considers the effects of the same variables used in the previous case on credit spread; and (iii) the third set takes into account the effects of changes in the credit market conditions on the product. In addition, with the intention of showing the effects of shocks on the variables which are relevant in the GMM models for credit supply, spread, and product, a VAR analysis is made. Finally, with the objective of testing the results, a GMM system model is built. The findings denote that the effects of economic shocks on credit supply and on credit spread are in accordance with the credit channel theory. In particular, it is observed that shocks on the interest rate are not transmitted directly to the economy but through the credit channels.     

Comparison of cross-country measures of sigma-convergence in per-capita income, 1960–2010

The evidence on sigma-convergence in income indicated by (a) coefficient of variation (CV) and (b) SD of logarithms (SDLOG) is considered for a large cross-country sample covering the period 1960–2010. Three main points are noted. First, the two measures yield qualitatively similar scenarios, and both indicate sigma-divergence in income over the period. Second, however, they do show large differences in the rate of change in income inequality, and SDLOG indicates divergence at a much higher rate than CV. It seems likely that SDLOG would indicate greater divergence, or weaker convergence, than CV in many cases. Third, therefore, researchers are urged not to rely too heavily on one or the other measure for an inference on sigma-convergence, and it seems appropriate to consider both for drawing reasonable conclusions on convergence in income and many other variables studied by scholars.     

Mobility of Top Incomes in Germany

I analyze German top income mobility using micro‐level panel data of personal income tax returns which are highly representative for top income taxpayers for the years 2001–06. Top income mobility is assessed in three dimensions: (i) persistence in top income fractiles and its stability over time, (ii) measures of individual mobility that are not dependent on the fractile size: the degree of mobility between equally sized groups and mobility in ranks, and (iii) mobility's impact on top income shares. Persistence in top income fractiles is comparatively high and fairly stable across the analyzed period. Top income recipients are less prone to downward mobility and see less variation in annual ranks than less rich tax units. Mobility's impact on income concentration is moderate. The top percentile's share is reduced by roughly 5 percent over six years.     

On the concept of appropriate technology for less industrialized countries

A questionnaire-survey, based on notions of external dependence and passive receipt of technology, was addressed to a group of technical and development experts to investigate why the manufacturing technologies applied in the LIC's are considered inappropriate for their resources and conditions. The results are preliminary and cannot be statistically validated, but constitute suggestive and important evidence which raises serious doubts on the validity of conventional wisdom in this field. There are strong indications that LIC's are not generally mere passive recipients of technologies developed in IC's—many instances of technological development carried out in some of these countries were reported and the imported technologies are usually adapted to local conditions. The “inappropriateness” of some industrial technologies was due to factors such as: (a) Inadequate response to market requirements; (b) failure to use and/or adapt to the local supply of materials; (c) failure to adapt to a smaller scale of production; (d) insufficient use of labor due to price distortions and other restrictions; (e) import of unsuitable machinery; (f) selection of unsuitable technology due to restrictions on the acquisition of technology.     

Policy tolerance of economic crime? An empirical analysis of the effect of counterfeiting on Italian trade

Some governments seem ambivalent towards economic crime because, on the one hand, there are adverse effects on competition and legal businesses; on the other hand, there are benefits through (shadow) employment and income in less-developed areas, as well as benefits through relations of political clientage. We focus on counterfeiting and its economic effects on trade in Italy during the economic crisis. Using a newly built regional dataset and a dynamic panel model, we find evidence of the dual impact of counterfeiting. The production (and exchange) of fake goods depresses the legal market that relies on intellectual property rights but supports shadow-economic activities for the benefit of illegal workers, criminal organisations, and political clientele. We show that the negative effects outweigh the positive effects.     

Does reform work? An econometric survey of the reform-growth puzzle

There is still an intense controversy about the empirical support for the effects of structural reforms on economic growth. This paper uses data from 46 studies and more than 500 estimates to: (a) document the variation in these estimated effects and (b) identify the main factors that help explain it. We put forward evidence, based on the general-to-specific method, suggesting that the estimated long-run effects of reform on growth are normally distributed, and that accounting for institutions and initial conditions (trade liberalization) are principal factors in decreasing (increasing) the probability of reporting significant and positive effects of reform on growth.     

A Model of TFP

This paper proposes an aggregative model of total factor productivity (TFP) in the spirit of Houthakker (1955–1956) . It considers a frictional labour market where production units are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and jobs are created and destroyed as in Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) . An aggregate production function is derived by aggregating across micro-production units in equilibrium. The level of TFP is explicitly shown to depend on the underlying distribution of shocks as well as on all the characteristics of the labour market as summarized by the job-destruction decision. The model is also used to study the effects of labour-market policies on the level of measured TFP.     

Effects of vertical integration on price and volume: An empirical inquiry

A simple model with two stages of production is used for deriving some empirically testable hypotheses. Firms (two upstream and two downstream) in the industry are either vertically integrated or not, hence the industry has three alternative patterns: Complete unintegrated, partially integrated, or fully integrated.Final good prices, outputs and profits of firms are different in each integration pattern but what is optimal can not be stated (i.e., pay-offs are much too complicated in order to solve the sub-game equilibrium).The essential feature of the model is that there are external markets for the intermediate inputs. Hence input trade between the four firms/divisions need not balance since excess supply or demand is traded at the external market. With this feature purely downstream exogenous shocks have no effect on upstream pricing nor production decisions if all four firms are unintegrated. Such exogenous shocks have non-zero effects if at least one firm is vertically integrated. There are also other dissimilarities in comparative statics of each industry integration pattern.An indirect method to test the effects of vertical integration on price and volume is presented and empirically tested. Depending on the vertical integration pattern of an industry exogenous shocks have dissimilar effects on prices and outputs of the final and intermediate good. A four equations system is estimated by using Finnish forest industry firm data. Final good demand rise has a reducing effect on both paper and pulp prices. Stumpage prices (upstream marginal costs) have a negative impact on paper and pulp production and a positive impact on prices. These effects from upstream (downstream) stage into downstream (upstream) market should not occur when all firms are unintegrated.This is a revised version of a paper which was presented at seminars at Brussels, Turku, Vienna, and Stuttgart. I would like to thank seminar participants (specially Frank Schmid) and anonymous referees for helpful comments. Financial support from the Marcus Wallenberg Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.     

The impact of innovation on companies’ performance: an entropy-based analysis of the STAR market segment of the Italian Stock Exchange

This paper proposes the use of a class of concentration-based entropy measures as a new instrument to quantify business performances through an analysis of growth, profitability and productivity. Such measures are tested against a complex analysis of the link between innovation and performance for firms listed in the STAR market segment of the Italian Stock Exchange. In so doing, two targets are achieved: (1) the identification of parameters that are relevant for explaining the relationship between innovation and performance for the considered sample, with special focus on innovation type, innovation level and business size; (2) the elaboration of a new methodology – based on information theory – for the analysis of the impact of innovation on performance. The study shows that type of innovation and size play a key role in determining company performance.     

Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand,scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil

This article focuses on a growth model in which (unlike other models) low (high) export demand elasticities and the fact that developing countries are importers of capital goods help explaining the slow (high) growth of these countries in the transition and in the steady state. The question arises whether export demand elasticities are low or high. For answering this question, export demand elasticities for the case of Brazil are obtained by estimation of the model. As a by-product of estimating the model, we obtain estimates for total-factor productivity growth and for scale economies. Based on the results from estimation we calculate steady-state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as dynamic steady-state gains from trade. The model and the results are discussed in regard to several strands of literature.