Tight money policies and inflation revisited

In this paper we reconsider the link between tight money policies and inflation in the spirit of Sargent and Wallace's (1981) influential paper, 'Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic.' A standard neoclassical model with capital, bonds, and return-dominated currency is used. The potential for tight-money policies to be inflationary (unpleasant arithmetic) exists, even when the real interest rate is below the growth rate of the economy. Additionally, the likely observability of unpleasant arithmetic in real world economies is shown to depend crucially on the type of monetary policy rule that is used. JEL Classification: E52, E63
Un autre coup d'œil sur la relation entre politiques monétaires restrictives et inflation. Ce mémoire ré-examine la relation entre politiques monétaires restrictives et inflation dans l'esprit du travail de Sargent et Wallace (1981) 'Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic'. Les auteurs utilisent un modèle néo-classique standard avec capital, débentures et une monnaie dont les rendements sont dominés par ceux d'autres réservoirs de valeur. La possibilité que les politiques monétaires restrictives soient inflationnistes existe même quand le taux d'intérêt réel est plus petit que le taux de croissance de l'économie De plus on montre que l'obtention de ces résultats déplaisants dans les économies concrètes dépend fondamentalement du type de règle monétaire qu'on utilise.     

Inside and outside fiat money, gains to trade, and IS-LM

Summary. We build a one-period general equilibrium model with money. Equilibrium exists, and fiat money has positive value, as long as the ratio of outside money to inside money is less than the gains to trade available at autarky. We show that the nominal effects of government fiscal and monetary policy can be completely described by a diagram identical in form to the IS-LM curves introduced by Hicks to describe Keynes' general theory. IS-LM analysis is thus not incompatible with full market clearing, multiple commodities, and heterogeneous households. We show that as the government deficit approaches a finite threshold, hyperinflation sets in (prices converge to infinity and real trade collapses). At the other extreme, if the government surplus is too large, the economy enters a liquidity trap in which nominal GNP sinks and monetary policy is ineffectual. Received: January 2, 2002; revised version: April 8, 2002 Correspondence to: P. Dubey     

Credit policies,macroeconomic stability and welfare: The case of China

Using a new Keynesian DSGE model with credit constraints, we study the impact on macroeconomic volatility of a macroprudential credit policy of the type implemented by the Central Bank of China. We find that the countercyclical credit policy plays a non-negligible role in stabilizing the real economy, and that this effect is distinctly more pronounced when credit conditions are looser. By means of a second-order approximation method, we show that the macroprudential credit policy can significantly boost welfare, benefiting the entrepreneurial sector more than the household sector. The results can yield insights for the institutional and policy setting of China and other emerging countries.     

Limited participation,private money,and credit in a spatial model of money

Summary. The purpose of this paper is to explore the implications of private money issue for the effects of monetary policy, for optimal policy, and for the role of fiat money. A locational model is constructed which gives an explicit account of the role for money and credit, and for limited financial market participation. When private money issue is prohibited, there is a liquidity effect as the result of a money injection from the central bank, but this effect goes away when private money is permitted. Private money issue changes dramatically the nature of optimal monetary policy. With private money, fiat currency is no longer used in transactions involving goods, but currency and central bank reserves play an important part in the clearing and settlement of private money returned for redemption.Received: 5 May 2003, Revised: 1 December 2003JEL Classification Numbers: E4, E5.The author thanks seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Duke University, conference participants at the Texas Monetary Conference at U.T. Austin, February 2002, and the Conference on Recent Developments in Money and Finance at Purdue University, May 2003, as well as Gabriele Camera, Ed Nosal, Will Roberds, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

The stability assumption in tests of causality between money and income

This note argues that structural stability is an important condition for tests of Grangercausality. Despite this fact the standard causality tests are sometimes applied to data for which structural stability cannot be assumed a priori. Therefore the stability of GNP/M1 systems of the U.S., Canada, and West Germany in the aftermath of the 1973/74 oil crisis is analyzed using formal statistical tests. Prediction tests are particularly useful for that purpose. The stability of the model for Canadian data is rejected whereas stability is not rejected for the U.S. and West Germany.     

Revisiting the demand for money model: money and loans in selected manufacturing industries

Using a dynamic infinite horizon optimizing model, it is shown that the empirical demand for money equation employed by a generation of applied monetary researchers is a reduced form model of the dynamic Euler equations for real money balances. The Euler equations derived in this paper focus on the finance capital for the firm and consist of real money balances (M1) and real business loans (F1) for selected manufacturing industries. By employing explicit structural dynamic specification and sectoral disaggregation, the question of how firms close the gap between desired real money balances and actual real money balances is examined. Model consistent ‘desired’ levels of money balances and business loans are found to depend not only upon the usual transactions variable and interest rate but also upon relative prices and a technology index. Moreover, the speed in closing the gap between desired and actual money balances (loan balances) is estimated using annual two-digit Standard Industrial Code data for durable and non-durable industries. Non-durable industries tend to close the gap faster than durable industries by as much as 25% in a given year.     

The effects of learning and signaling on money demand: With an application to heterodox inflation stabilization programs

This paper develops a nonlinear vector autoregression of inflation and money growth subject to changes in regime. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are conjectured to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to observe directly whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program. However, as part of their money demand decision, agents construct probability inferences regarding the regime. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime.  This specification is estimated using data from the Israeli and Argentine high-inflation periods. Results indicate that the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government's signaling might simplify the agents' inference problem and increase the speed of their learning but, under certain conditions, it might also increase inflation volatility. Welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their money demand in the short-term even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level. First version received: August 1998/Final version received: January 1999     

On model ambiguity and money neutrality

We solve for the equilibrium of a stochastic neo-classical continuous time model without and with money under model ambiguity. We show that: (i) the correction for ambiguity stemming from the money supply is nil at equilibrium; (ii) money is neutral with respect to the stock market equilibrium (the equity risk premium); (iii) money is not neutral with respect to consumption and capital accumulation, and its effect may be quantitatively substantial; (iv) the preference for model robustness affects all the real economic variables as well as the expected inflation rate and the nominal interest rate.     

The stability of long-run money demand in the United States: A new approach

In this paper, we search for cointegration relation and determine the location of the changes in the long-run money demand in the US. We use the same data set as the previous studies and find that there are two regime changes.     

Tariffs,trade and unemployment in a disequilibrium model: issues and policies

This paper studies the disequilibrium transition process engaged by increased openness to trade, and the effect of institutions, market behaviors and economic policies on that transition. The issue is analyzed with a simple two country (north and south), two goods model, amended in order to take into account the time dimension of both the production and the decision processes. Investigating the consequences of a tariff decrease by means of numerical simulations, we show to what extent wage and price setting, and the degree of tightness of monetary policy affect the outcome of the disequilibrium process. The main result is that capturing the gains associated with international trade requires market behaviors and economic policies, which are rather different from what is usually prescribed.

The value of money in a dynamic equilibrium model

Summary. This paper studies the pricing of money in an infinite-horizon economy with heterogeneous agents, incomplete financial markets and arbitrary borrowing restrictions. Purchases of the consumption good are subject to a cash-in-advance constraint. Under general conditions I show that the price of money is equal to its fundamental value, where this value is defined over all state-price processes that are compatible with the existence of no-arbitrage opportunities. This equality implies that the cash-in-advance constraint is binding infinitely often for all agents in the economy. The analysis highlights certain differences in the determination of the price of money with respect to models with money in the utility function that bear on the optimal implementation of economic policies.Received: 23 October 2003, Revised: 26 August 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: D52, E44, G12.M.S. Santos: This paper is an outgrowth of an earlier collaboration with Michael Woodford. I have also benefitted from various discussions with Eduardo Gimenez, Alejandro Hernandez, and Miguel Iraola. Some very useful comments by an anonymous referee are greatly appreciated.     

Growth,budget deficits,and fiscal policies in an overlapping generations model

Analyzing an overlapping generations model with growing endowments and a government sector that is permitted to have a budget deficit forces the real interest factor to deviate from Samuelson's biological interest factor. Fiscal policies then affect the real interest factor, which in turn has consequences both for the direction and the effectiveness of those fiscal policies. These consequences depend upon the borrowing position of the young.We would like to thank Jo Ritzen, Marcel Peeters, Casper de Vries, Georg Tillmann, Richard Gigengack, an anonymous referee, and the participants of workshops at Erasmus University and the University of Groningen for helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. We owe a special debt to Claus Weddepohl for stimulating our interest in this subject. The paper was presented at the 5th annual meeting of the European Economic Association, Lisbon 1990.     

Ideology, markets and money

Contemporary economic theory is considered in terms of the science/ideologydistinction. Marx's critique of Hegel is then used to derivea demarcation criterion that sharply separates scientific knowledgefrom ideology. This critique interprets Hegelian methodologyas fundamentally ideological because it understands realityin terms of abstract thought and then hypostatises that thoughtas reality. This process is more generally treated in termsof Marx's theory of value and money, in which money really doesdo what Hegelian logic purports to do. The consequences of consideringMarxian theory in this way provide some purchase on the logicand limitations of contemporary economic theory.     

Openness and interest rates: An analysis using the MIUF model and transaction cost model of money

This paper discusses the manner in which the difference in the specification, which generates a demand for money by agents, alters the optimal interest rate in open economies by taking into account that the prices reflect the producers' optimization. In acanonical money-in-the-utility function (MIUF) model, the Friedman rule is optimal. On the other hand, in the transaction cost model, the optimal interest rate is positive and increases, in terms of the share of imports in consumption.     

The spirit of capitalism, social status, money, and accumulation

This paper demonstrates the unambiguous existence of the Tobin portfolio-shift effect in the wealth-is-status and the spirit-of-capitalism models of growth. Namely, higher inflation leads to higher capital stock in the long run, and inflation increases the endogenous-growth rate of the economy.     

Balance-of-payments policies and structural reforms: An adaptive-control model for India

An adaptive-control model, where parameters of the model will change in response to policy optimizations, is constructed for India and solutions of the optimization process provide the planned paths for some of the most important macro policy instruments of the economy. Comparisons of the planned paths and the actual behavior of the economy show that the capitalistic reform process in India is not a success, but a mixed economic plan would be more beneficial for the economy.     

The stability of the cournot oligopoly model: A reassessment

The stability properties of the Cournot oligopoly model are examined for the continuous adjustment process. Sufficient conditions for instability are established which are shown to be of significance when the number of firms, n, is small. Local and global stability are shown under appropriate conditions which for global stability include the restriction n ? 5. The proof of global stability corrects a well-known proof by F. Hahn (Rev. Econ. Stud.29 (1962), 329–331). Results for the discrete time adjustment process are reported and the restrictiveness of the model's assumptions are discussed.     

The (in)stability of money demand in the euro area: lessons from a cross-country analysis

The instability of standard money demand functions has undermined the role of monetary aggregates for monetary policy analysis in the euro area. This paper uses country-specific monetary aggregates to shed more light on the economics behind the instability of euro area money demand. Our results obtained from panel estimation indicate that the observed instability of standard money demand functions could be explained by omitted variables like e.g. technological progress that are important for money demand but constant across member countries.