A general equilibrium analysis of the evolution of Canadian service productivity

Can the slowdown in total factor productivity (TFP) that we have experienced since the mid-seventies be ascribed to the increasing importance of services, or do we instead observe an improvement of productivity in the service sectors by way of learning-by-doing or specialization? We feel that such questions are best answered within a general equilibrium analysis of the whole economy, i.e. a structural view of the whole economy. We maximize the level of domestic consumption subject to commodity balances and endowment constraints. The Lagrange multipliers associated with the endowment constraints measure the marginal productivities of labor and capital. We declare these shadow prices to be the factor productivities. The main empirical contribution of this paper is a reexamination of the services paradox. In Canada, the sluggish productivity in services is limited to finance, insurance and real estate, and to business and personal services. Any attempt to resolve the services paradox may focus on these two sectors. Transportation, trade, and to a lesser extent communication are progressive sectors.     

Working capital requirement and the unemployment volatility puzzle

Shimer (2005) argues that a search and matching model of the labor market in which wage is determined by Nash bargaining cannot generate the observed volatility in unemployment and vacancy in response to reasonable labor productivity shocks. This paper examines how incorporating monopolistically competitive firms with a working capital requirement (in which firms borrow funds to pay their wage bills) improves the ability of the search models to match the empirical fluctuations in unemployment and vacancy without resorting to an alternative wage setting mechanism. The monetary authority follows an interest rate rule in the model. A positive labor productivity shock lowers the real marginal cost of production and lowers inflation. In response to the fall in price level, the monetary authority reduces the nominal interest rate. A lower interest rate reduces the cost of financing and partially offsets the increase in labor cost from a higher productivity. A reduced labor cost implies the firms retain a greater portion of the gain from a productivity shock, which gives them a greater incentive to create vacancies. Simulations show that a working capital requirement does indeed improve the ability of the search models to generate fluctuations in key labor market variables to better match the U.S. data.     

Heterogeneous technology and panel data: The case of the agricultural production function

Economic growth involves reallocating resources from traditional to new techniques of production, creating new relationships between particular resources and productivity. The paper analyzes the implications of this process on the estimation of agricultural production functions using a panel of countries. The data includes a measure of capital in agriculture absent from most studies. We employ a heterogeneous technology framework where implemented technology is chosen jointly with inputs to interpret information obtained in the empirical analysis of panel data. In this framework, estimates depend upon the economic environment, which is represented by state variables. It turns out that the old problem of identifying the production function cannot be resolved through the use of instrumental variables, but can be resolved using the allocation error. The paper discusses the scope for replacing country and time effects by observed state variables. The empirical results differ from those reported in the literature for cross-country studies, largely in augmenting the elasticities of capital and land and reducing those of fertilizer and labor. The evaluation of the marginal value productivity accounts for the flow of capital and fertilizer to agriculture and the flow of labor to other sectors, thereby contributing to overall economic growth.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

APPRAISING THE U.S. OUTPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY ESTIMATES FOR GOVERNMENT–WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

Output and productivity estimates for U.S. government organizations are a useful management tool, and are of potential value for improving national income accounts. Real gross government product is currently estimated on the basis of labor input data. However, this imparts a downward bias to real GNP estimates since labor productivity of federal civilian employees has risen, according to Labor Department estimates begun in 1972, at an average annual rate of 1; percent since 1967. The estimates now cover almost 70 percent of the employees. The chief avenue for further improvement lies in refinement of the output indicators. Coverage of state and local government employees is spotty and needs to be expanded. The author also recommends a major effort to estimate public capital stocks in current and constant prices as a basis for measuring rental values, capital inputs, and productivity.     

要素生产率和要素配置作用下的中国城乡收入差距

根据城乡生产函数差异的特征事实构建了城乡收入差距模型,利用我国各省1997—2009年数据研究城乡劳动力比、固定资产比、人力资本比、农业中间品投入、工业化和第三产业规模对城乡收入差距的影响。结果显示,我国城乡要素生产率与城乡要素配置的差异对城乡收入差距具有决定性作用;城乡劳动力比的增长明显有助于缩小城乡收入差距,而城乡人力资本比、固定资本投入比、农业成本、以及相邻地区间的相关性都导致了城乡收入差距的扩大。缩小城乡差距的重要途径是加快农村劳动力的城市化、增加农村教育投入、提高农业生产率、增加农村的物质资本投入,各省缩小城乡收入差距的努力对邻近省份也会产生积极影响。     

THE TREATMENT OF INTANGIBLE RESOURCES AS CAPITAL

The author describes the results of his current research designed to measure total investment, tangible and intangible, and the derived capital stocks for the U.S., 1929–1966. With respect to total investment, the estimates show a marked increase in its ratio to GNP. All of the increase occurs in the intangible component comprising R & D, education and training, health, and mobility. The increase was concentrated in the government sector, although households increased the proportion of disposable personal income devoted to total investment.
Consistent with the relative investment trends, the stock of intangible capital grew considerably faster than the tangible stock. The growth of total capital stocks was somewhat less than that of GNP, however, in both current and constant prices. Thus, the rate of return on total capital rose somewhat over the period. Average rates of return on human and nonhuman capital were closely similar.
In real terms, the growth of total capital stocks accounted for two-thirds of the growth in real GNP, 1929–1966. One-third of the growth is attributed to residual forces, chiefly economies of scale, changes in inherent quality of human and natural resources, changes in values and motivations, and changes in rates of utilization of capacity.
The growth of the ratio of real intangible stocks to real tangible stocks accounted for less than half of the increase in total factor productivity 1929–1966. This is significantly less than the contribution of intangibles as estimated by Denison, and the author adduces several reasons why his estimates may understate the contribution. Nevertheless, it seems that the net effect of the residual forces enumerated above must also have made a substantial contribution to the growth of tangible factor productivity and real GNP over the 37-year period.     

Money balances as factor inputs: An empirical evidence based on translog specification

This is a first attempt to analyze the way money balances (under both definitions) interact with the primary factors in Greek technology. Using a two-output, three-input translog cost specification, we reject the traditional functions as being inappropriate in explaining the production process. It is found that money balances are substitutes for labor and complements to capital services, while value-added is not produced by the primary inputs exclusively. A number of policy implications have emerged and are stated.     

Valuing water for Chinese industries: a marginal productivity analysis

A marginal productivity approach is developed for valuing industrial use of water and applied using data from Chinese industrial firms, where water, as well as capital, labour and raw materials, are treated as inputs to a production function. Models on price elasticity of water demand associated with the marginal productivity approach are also developed and estimated for different Chinese industrial sectors.     

Are ICT Spillovers Driving the New Economy?

Some observers have raised the possibility that production spillovers and network effects associated with information and communications technology (ICT) are an important part of the "New Economy." Across U.S. manufacturing industries, however, ICT capital appears correlated with the acceleration of average labor productivity (ALP) growth as predicted by a standard production model, but not with total factor productivity (TFP) growth as these New Economy forces imply. Once one allows for productivity differences across industries, measured TFP growth is uncorrelated with all capital inputs, including ICT capital. This provides little evidence for a New Economy story of ICT-related spillovers or network effects driving TFP growth throughout U.S. manufacturing.     

中国制造业资本存量永续盘存法估计

KLEMS 项目的目的是在北美,欧洲和亚洲进行生产率的多国比较。本文讨论了 KLEMS 研究中估计资本存量的基本方法一永续盘存法及其经济含义。在这个研究中,根据中国的现有数据,应用永续盘存法估计了1985—1995年间,中国制造业分部门的资本存量。本文详细地分析了估计中所使用的数据,并讨论了所使用的假设与必要的数据调整,以及这些假设与数据调整所可能带来的估计中的误差。     

Differential Migration Prospects,Skill Formation,and Welfare

This paper develops a one sector, two‐input model with endogenous human capital formation. The two inputs are two types of skilled labor: “engineering,” which exerts a positive externality on total factor productivity, and “law,” which does not. The paper shows that a marginal prospect of migration by engineers increases human capital accumulation of both types of workers (engineers and lawyers), and also the number of engineers who remain in the country. These two effects are socially desirable, since they move the economy from the (inefficient) free‐market equilibrium towards the social optimum. The paper also shows that if the externality effect of engineering is sufficiently powerful, everyone will be better off as a consequence of the said prospect of migration, including the engineers who lose the migration “lottery,” and even the individuals who practice law.     

非农部门劳动力增长速度研究

根据影响非农部门劳动力增长速度的相关因素,运用C-D生产函数,利用1996～2004年间的非农部门有关数据,对影响非农部门劳动力增长速度的有关因素进行实证分析,结果表明影响我国非农部门劳动力增长速度的主要因素为:资本增长速度、非农部门实物工资增长速度、技术进步引起的劳动边际产出的增长速度和工业劳动边际产出对劳动力的弹性。政府应通过提高资本质量、吸引国外投资,保持物价稳定、控制工资上涨,加强创新力度,提高员工技能以促进非农部门劳动力增长。     

PRINClPLES IN THE VALUATION OF HUMAN CAPITAL

Human capital concepts and measures have been applied and misapplied to an increasing variety of economic problem areas, two of which are examined. One of these is measurement of human capital gains and losses through migration. First requirements here are specification of the gaining or losing entities and of the relevant welfare functions. Alternatives in these respects are outlined. It is then argued that an appropriately adapted Fisherian present-value assessment of human capital is normally the correct measure. Replacement costs are a legitimate substitute only for young migrants with little cumulated learning through experience and even then they have usually been fallaciously applied. Probability adjustments for migration and re-migration are required in both cost and present-value assessments of human capital effects of migration-relevant policy alternatives, but the nature of those adjustments differs with the measurement approach used. For longitudinal analysis of contributions of human capital to economic growth, all measures of human capital stocks are inappropriate. A first principle of such analysis is measurement of resource inputs as flows. A coordinate principle requires that disaggregation be carried as far as necessary to distinguish essentially homogeneous categories of labor inputs. Though a way of separating out the schooling versus on-the-job-experience components of human capital is illustrated, it requires some strong assumptions. Splitting men into abstracted human capital components is better avoided in growth analysis. Furthermore, categorization of labor-force sub-groups could equally well provide the basis for rate-of-return assessments of marginal changes in the pace of investments in humans. Such assessments would incorporate the main elements of capital theory except valuation of the capital asset itself. Ultimately, human resource measurements for use in major public policy decisions relating to either growth or migration (or both) must incorporate modifications or error components that allow for development phenomena that elude marginal assessments. Among developing countries especially, a consideration of educational diffusion processes and dynamic productivity scale effects, for example, could have critical measurement and policy implications.     

Elasticity of substitution and productivity, capital and skill intensity differences across firms

This paper, instrumented with six theorems, shows that differences between firms in labor productivity, capital intensity and relative demand for skilled labor can be explained by differences in the substitution parameters between capital, skilled and unskilled labor in the presence of skill biased technical change.     

The Output Contributions Of Computer Equipment And Personnel: A Firm-Level Analysis

This paper examines the output contributions of capital and labor deployed in information systems (IS) at the firm level during the period 1988–91 throughout the business sector, using two different sources of data on these inputs. Our production function estimates suggest that there are substantial excess returns to both IS capital and IS labor. Computer capital and labor jointly contribute, or account for, about 21 percent of output, although only about 10% of both capital and labor income accrue to IS factors. Although IS employees accounted for a very small share of total employment by 1986, IS employment growth is estimated to have made a larger contribution to 1976–86 output growth than non-IS employment, due to the very rapid growth (16% per annum) of IS employment. The estimated marginal rate of substitution between IS and non-IS employees is 6: one IS employee can be substituted for six non-IS employees without affecting output.     

China's economic growth and its real exchange rate

The shocks that underlie China's comparatively rapid growth include gains in productivity, factor accumulation and policy reforms that increase allocative efficiency. The well-known Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis links productivity growth in tradable industries with real appreciations. Yet it relies heavily on the law of one price applying for tradable goods, against which there is now considerable evidence. In its absence, other growth shocks also affect the real exchange rate by influencing relative supply or demand for home product varieties. This paper investigates the pre-conditions for the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis to predict a real appreciation in the Chinese case. It then quantifies the links between all growth shocks and the Chinese real exchange rate using a dynamic model of the global economy with open capital accounts and full demographic underpinnings to labor supply. The results suggest that financial capital inflows most affect the real exchange rate in the short term, while differential productivity is strong in the medium term. Contrary to expectation, in the long term demographic forces prove to be weak relative to changes in the skill composition of the labor force, which enhances services sector performance and depreciates the real exchange rate.     

GROWTH ACCOUNTING AND PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT*

This paper compares the growth accounting approaches to aggregate productivity measurement and analysis of three major researchers: E. F. Denison, D. W. Jorgenson, and J. W. Kendrick. The investigetors are compared in terms of their treatment of a number of crucial elements, including measurement of output and of capital and labor inputs (including composition or quality changes), total factor productivity growth, economies of scale, and intensity of demand (for output). Judged by the standard of the neoclassical economic theory of production-the only generally accepted basis for input aggregation-Denison departs significantly from the production theory framework in his measurement of output and capital input, Kendrick to some degree in his measure of capital input, and Jorgenson not at all. The effects of these departures are illustrated with reference to the recent productivity slowdown. The probable near-term future utility of growth accounting methods for productivity analysis is assessed, and some related econometric modeling issues are noted.     

The Catching-up of Japanese with German Industries: Production Organization, Infrastructure, and R&D

This paper presents an empirical productivity comparison between Japan and Germany, focusing on organization, R&D and infrastructure. Time-series datasets from the auto vehicle and electronic engineering industries are used to demonstrate the reversal in productivity advantage from Germany to Japan at around 1980. It is argued that Japanese productivity gains arose from a better infrastructure and from cost-reducing innovations such as lean production methods. An econometric model determines the causes for the observed differences in the quantities of inputs used. It shows that frequent external procurement in Japanese manufacturing has shifted the factor inputs from labor and capital to materials, a result in line with the philosophy of lean production.     

Size and Foreign Ownership Effects on Productivity and Efficiency: An Analysis of Turkish Motor Vehicle and Parts Plants

The levels and interactions of foreign connections and size may be important determinants of plant productivity and efficiency, particularly in a developing country such as Turkey. We explore the productive contributions of foreign ownership (FDI), emphasizing its linkages with plant size and input composition, for plants in the Turkish motor vehicle and parts industry. We evaluate the implications of FDI for overall productivity, input-specific contributions, and returns to scale, using OLS, stochastic production frontier, and quantile (size-specific) regression estimates of a translog production function model. We find significantly higher productivity of plants with foreign ownership, driven by a higher marginal product of labor, particularly for smaller plants. This effect augments the productive contributions of technical progress, capital intensity, and increasing returns to scale. FDI is also associated with a greater productive contribution of imported capital investment.