我国货币政策对股票市场流动性风险的影响——基于流动性波动性的风险测度方法

本文以流动性的波动性度量流动性风险,从货币供应量和利率两个方面,应用VAR模型首次研究了我国货币政策对股票市场流动性风险的影响。研究发现,货币供应量变化与流动性风险负相关,其中,M2变化对流动性风险影响最大,M1变化的影响次之,M0变化的影响最小;利率对流动性风险有正向影响,但影响力度小于货币供应量变化的影响。研究还发现,牛市状态下,货币供应量变化和利率对流动性风险的影响周期长于熊市状态,利率对流动性风险的影响力度明显大于熊市状态;但熊市状态下,货币供应量变化对流动性风险的影响力度相对较大,其中,M0变化对流动性风险的影响明显大于牛市状态。     

货币需求弹性、有效货币供给与货币市场非均衡模型——解析"中国之谜"与长期流动性过剩

Chinese excessive liquidity problems are more serious than other main countries. The upgrading industrial structure and the increasing opening degree lead to the excessive money demand and higher money demand elasticity. Bad credits weaken money supply effectiveness and lead to illusive increasing money. We set up the money market disequilibrium model under the condition of the excessive liquidity. The imbalance between money demand and money supply is the key of Chinese excessive liquidity problems. __________ Translated from Jingji lilun yu jingji guanli 经济理论与经济管理(Economic Theory and Business Management), 2007, (11): 38–44     

货币需求弹性、有效货币供给与货币市场非均衡模型——解析“中国之谜”与长期流动性过剩

中国的流动性过剩相对于其他经济发达国家更为严重,不但是由于产业结构升级和对外开放度上升而导致的过度货币需求,而且是因为不良贷款引发的货币供给有效性减弱。缓解流动性过剩必须从经济转型时期的货币需求弹性、有效货币供给以及货币市场非均衡等多个方面寻找对策。     

关于中国频繁上调法定存款准备金率的思考

为落实从紧的货币政策,中国人民银行从2006年7月份以来连续15次上调存款准备金率,这虽然对中国的产能过剩、经济过热起到了一些调控作用,但难以有效抑制银行体系中的流动性过剩。针对中国宏观经济运行中出现的货币数量过多、流动性过剩这一热点问题,应尽快利用货币、财政手段加以解决。     

我国当前的流动性过剩：困境与选择

流动性过剩已成为当前我国宏观经济运行的一个基本特征。针对这一领域存在的广泛争议，本文主要阐明4个问题：（1）在概念上，流动性过剩是长期持续的超额货币供给累积的短期爆发，（2）在成因上，流动性过剩是我国经济内外部失衡综合作用的结果；（3）在应对措施上，流动性过剩的解决无外乎平衡国际收支、构建自由外汇制度和进行宏观调控三种手段；（4）在解决策略上，我国流动性过剩的最终解决必须以克服“外患”为先导，消除“内忧”为根本，依靠“节源”、“开流”和“吸纳”3类措施的分工合作，选择社会保障、外汇使用和资本市场发展作为主要的突破口，有效稳妥地推进。     

Determinacy with nominal assets and outside money

Summary. We build a finite horizon model with inside and outside money, in which interest rates, price levels and commodity allocations are determinate, even though asset markets are incomplete and asset deliveries are purely nominal.Received: 2 July 2003, Revised: 1 December 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: D50, E40, E50, E58.Correspondence to: J. Geanakoplos     

Inside and outside fiat money, gains to trade, and IS-LM

Summary. We build a one-period general equilibrium model with money. Equilibrium exists, and fiat money has positive value, as long as the ratio of outside money to inside money is less than the gains to trade available at autarky. We show that the nominal effects of government fiscal and monetary policy can be completely described by a diagram identical in form to the IS-LM curves introduced by Hicks to describe Keynes' general theory. IS-LM analysis is thus not incompatible with full market clearing, multiple commodities, and heterogeneous households. We show that as the government deficit approaches a finite threshold, hyperinflation sets in (prices converge to infinity and real trade collapses). At the other extreme, if the government surplus is too large, the economy enters a liquidity trap in which nominal GNP sinks and monetary policy is ineffectual. Received: January 2, 2002; revised version: April 8, 2002 Correspondence to: P. Dubey     

Understanding China’s monetary policy: an institutional perspective

Given China’s status as a large transitional economy, analysing the country’s monetary policy requires an understanding of the institutional and policy environment within which monetary policy operates. As China’s monetary policy has multiple objectives and the central bank is subordinate to the State Council in monetary policy decisions, addressing deep-rooted structural issues and improving governance and institutions are essential so that monetary policy can be more focused and effective. Confronted with the Impossible Trinity dilemma, China faces daunting challenges in tackling the inevitable policy choice between monetary autonomy and exchange rate control as its capital account increasingly liberalises. This article analyses China’s unique and evolving monetary policy framework from an institutional perspective and evaluates the challenges to monetary management and reforms. Relevant policy implications for monetary policy implementation are also discussed.     

Price expectations, capital accumulation and employment: Lindahl's macroeconomics from the 1920s to the 1950s

Erik Lindahl's approach to macroeconomics focused on the non-neutralityof monetary policy (in the short and the long run) and on thedenial of the existence of natural rates of interest and unemployment.From the 1920s until his death in 1960, Lindahl advocated theuse of norms for monetary policy to fight inflation and deflationprecisely because he would not rely on the market system's returnto natural rates. Making use of hitherto unexplored material,this paper analyses the development of Lindahl's thinking aboutprice level changes, investment and employment from the 1920sto the 1950s.     

基于机构投资者交易需求的中国股市流动性研究

基于机构投资者的交易需求,结合对15家机构投资者的调研,通过实证数据发现:我国股市的流动性水平高于美国NYSE等世界其他主要证券市场,机构投资者一般对国内股市整体流动性水平比较满意。但是我国股市流动性波动率高,并且和市场回报率之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系。对机构投资者来说,当前我国股市主要的流动性问题不是流动性水平过高或过低的问题,而是流动性风险过高并难以和价格风险相分散。     

Rethinking liquidity creation: Banks,shadow banks and the elasticity of finance

In this article, the authors use the concept of the hierarchy of money found in the works of Minsky (2008 Minsky, H. [1986]2008. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. [Google Scholar][1986]), Foley (1987 Foley, D. 1987. “Money in Economic Activity.” In The New Palgrave: Money, edited by J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, and P. Newman, 519–525. New York, NY: W.W. Norton.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Wray (1990 Wray, L. R. 1990. Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies: The Endogenous Money Approach. Aldershot, UK: Edward Elgar. [Google Scholar]), and Bell (2001 Bell, S. 2001. “The Role of the State and the Hierarchy of Money.” Cambridge Journal of Economics 25 (2):149–63.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to analyze the process of liquidity creation in modern capitalist economies where shadow banks play an active role. They abandon the narrow focus on banks as the creators of money as well as the idea that nonbank financial institutions are mere intermediaries between savers and borrowers. Instead, the authors demonstrate that, similar to banks, nonbank financial institutions and foreign banks (through their cross-border activities) create liquidity endogenously by leveraging over the liabilities of entities hierarchically above them. The authors further elucidate Kregel’s concept of “fictitious” liquidity in the context of the hierarchy of financial liabilities, distinguishing it from “true” liquidity. By bringing shadow banks and the euro-currency markets into to the pyramid of financial liabilities, they develop a more complete framework of liquidity creation in modern capitalist economies. Their “extended” pyramid is useful for analyzing not only the fragility that may arise from the interactions between firms, households and banks, but also that which may originate through the interactions between banks, shadow banks and foreign banks.     

货币供给的制度内生与需求内生实证研究

文章分别从基础货币投放的被动性、金融机构的"有价证券与外汇"资产渠道以及利率渠道对我国货币供给的内生性进行了实证研究。研究表明:我国货币供给具有较强的内生性,主要表现为基础货币供给的制度内生和信贷供给的需求内生。为提高当前紧缩性货币政策的有效性,货币当局必须稳定人民币汇率升值预期,提高法定存款准备金率、提高贷款利率尤其中长期贷款利率水平,以此削弱货币供给的制度内生和需求内生。     

A monetary mechanism for sharing capital: Diamond and Dybvig meet Kiyotaki and Wright

Summary. A model is presented in which banks update public records, accept deposits of fiat money and intermediate capital. I show that inside money is more liquid than outside money, increasing the turnover rates of idle capital. The model offers a simple explanation for the dual role of financial institutions: Banks are monitored and can issue nominal assets upon request, which helps them to transfer capital in sufficiently high rates and to also become intermediaries. The model shares some features with those of Diamond and Dybvig [5], and Kiyotaki and Wright [7].Received: 18 February 2003, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: E51, G21, G24.Ricardo de O. Cavalcanti: I thank two anonymous referees, Susumu Imai, B. Ravikumar and Neil Wallace, as well as participants at the Economic Theory symposium Recents Developments in Money and Finance, and seminar participants at the Richmond Fed, Queens University, and Sabanci University for comments on an early draft. The hospitality and financial support of the Cleveland Fed Central Bank Institute and CNPq are greatfully appreciated. The authors opinions are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.     

我国汇率政策对货币政策的制约性分析

自2005年7月21日我国实施汇率制度改革以来,我国继续出现贸易、资本双顺差,外汇储备持续高速增加使人民币升值压力继续存在。国外游资的大量涌入,使得我国银行体系出现“流动性过剩”,并凸显通货膨胀压力。央行采取了一系列货币政策措施,包括提高利率、提高法定准备金率、发行央行定向票据等,但是效果并不明显,目前我国流动性过剩问题依然严重,通胀压力仍然存在,货币政策的实施效果严重受到了汇率政策的制约。     

货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标适应性研究

文章围绕货币政策中介目标的可测性、可控性和相关性特征,系统地对货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性进行模型分析和数据检验。研究结果表明:货币供给的内生性增强,货币供给的可控性降低;短期货币需求和货币流通速度不稳定,货币供给的可测性较差。但是,货币供给量与GDP和物价之间的相关性较好。     

货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标适应牲研究

文章围绕货币政策中介目标的可测性、可控性和相关性特征，系统地对货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性进行模型分析和数据检验。研究结果表明：货币供给的内生性增强，货币供给的可控性降低；短期货币需求和货币流通速度不稳定，货币供给的可测性较差。但是，货币供给量与GDP和物价之间的相关性较好。     

影子银行对货币政策传导机制有效性的影响研究--基于SVAR模型的实证检验

基于2006年1月～2014年3月的样本数据,运用结构向量自回归（ SVAR）模型分析了中国影子银行对货币政策的利率传导机制、银行信贷传导机制以及资产价格传导机制有效性的影响。结果显示：影子银行对货币政策传导的阻碍主要集中在对M2指标有效性以及M2向利率、银行信贷、资产价格等中间变量的传导阶段;在不同的传导机制中,影子银行对货币政策中间变量向最终目标传导的影响存在较大差异。基于此,提出对影子银行的监管建议。     

Bank liquidity risk: From John Law (1705) to Walter Bagehot (1873)

Abstract

By granting credit and issuing money, banks take a liquidity risk - that is, the risk of being unable to reimburse its notes in coins. Five different explanations of a bank liquidity crisis have been provided by different authors, since John Law and up to Walter Bagehot. First, according to Law (1703) and Steuart ([1767] [1998]), the distinction between money of account (the pound sterling) and money of payment (the guinea) may induce a bank run. Second, according to Cantillon (1730), Hume ([1752 Goschen, G. J., 1861. The Theory of the Foreign Exchanges. London; Effingham Wilson, Royal, 1861. French edition, Théorie des changes étrangers, Librairie Guillaumin et C^ie Paris, 1892. 1861. [Google Scholar]] 1972), Ricardo (1810-1823) and the Currency School (1837-1858), the bank reserve becomes insufficient as a consequence of a diminishing value of money allied with over issues. Third, according to Thornton ([1802 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]] 1939, 1991 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]) and the Banking School (1840-1857), it can occur as a consequence of a falling exchange rate that is not linked with over issues. Fourth, according to Smith (1776) and the Banking School, discounting of fictitious bills, by decreasing the shareholders' funds, leads to bank illiquidity. Lastly, according to Thornton ([1802 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]] 1939, 1991 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]) and Bagehot (1873), the liquidity crisis is a consequence of bank panics: a "flight" to money for Thornton, a "flight" to credit for Bagehot. The analysis of these five different explanations sheds new light on classical monetary controversies.     

资本市场流动性研究综述

对资本市场流动性的研究有助于解释流动性溢价问题,提高投资者的流动性风险意识。系统回顾了国内外有关资本市场流动性的研究现状,从流动性测度、流动性与资产定价以及市场之间的流动性相关性等问题进行梳理和总结,对今后的研究方向做出了展望。