POLICY MAKING IN DEFLATIONARY JAPAN*

The prolonged recession and deflation in Japan since 1990 presents novel problems to economists. The recession was certainly triggered by real factors such as the slowing down of capacity growth. At the same time, it was aggravated by the monetary contraction in the early 1990s and the inability of the monetary policy to cope with deflation, a fortiori a monetary phenomenon. With the zero‐bound interest rate, traditional monetary policy is of limited effect, and unconventional monetary policy, such as inflation (or price‐level) targeting, should be employed instead, in order to change the persistent deflationary expectations in the public.     

Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation

We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output. To avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation. In contrast, policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals.     

International monetary policy coordination in a new Keynesian model with NICE features

The authors provide a static two-country new Keynesian model to teach two related questions in international macroeconomics: the international transmission of unilateral monetary policy decisions and the gains coming from the coordination monetary rules. They concentrate on “normal times” and use a thoroughly graphical approach to analyze the questions at hand. In this setting monetary policy is conducted using interest rates rules and economic integration between nations does not necessarily create the case for the coordination of monetary policy. In particular, they show that the conduct of optimal national monetary policies does not make any difference with the coordination of national policies, as this creates a situation where the international monetary system operates “Near an International Cooperative Equilibrium” (NICE).     

财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理,揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式;运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据,构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现：财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调;财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性,在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展;两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致,在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。     

结构性松动货币 抑制通货紧缩趋势

本文在充分肯定近年来我国实行稳健的货币政策所发挥的积极作用的同时 ,从短期政策操作的角度 ,运用实证资料 ,深入分析并阐明了自去年 9月份以来通缩趋势重新抬头的原因与机制 ,指出了在实际经济增长率低于潜在经济增长率的情况下 ,以低于潜在经济增长率的实际经济增长率作为货币政策操作的“准绳”和“依据” ,不利于充分运用我国富余的人力、物力和财力资源。在此基础上 ,作者提出了在稳健货币政策框架下 ,进一步结构性松动货币、抑制重新抬头的通货紧缩趋势的一系列政策建议     

Vested Interests and the Common Man as Seen Through Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Flooding Wall Street or Main Street?

There are many angles through which a critical observer can analyze the divergent class interests in most aspects of macroeconomic management. We examine the insistence of financial authorities of all major economies on reviving economic activity through monetary — and not fiscal — policy as a particularly clear example of favoring vested interests over the interests of the common man. Nearly a century after Thorstein Veblen wrote on the subject, one can find many parallel elements to the political landscape of the times. Today, the common man is often expressed by the “99%,” and many accept that the dominant vested interest is that of global banks. Unlike in Veblen’s times, economists today have many historical experiments in economic management that they can consult. By employing logic, historical experience, and an understanding of our current global finance-led capitalism, we offer a preliminary institutionalist analysis of the mechanisms of current monetary policy that “flood” Wall Street, while leaving employment, production, and investment — Main Street — all but forgotten. We then explain how vested interests have abandoned fiscal policy and left a deflationary macroeconomic environment.     

MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND ELECTIONS IN OECD DEMOCRACIES*

The purpose of this paper is to test for evidence of opportunistic “political business cycles” in a large sample of 18 OECD economies. Our results can be summarized as follows: 1) We find very little evidence of pre-electoral effects on economic outcomes, in particular, on GDP growth and unemployment; 2) We see some evidence of “political monetary cycles,” that is, expansionary monetary policy in election years; 3) We also observe indications of “political budget cycles,” or “loose” fiscal policy prior to elections; 4) Inflation exhibits a post-electoral jump, which could be explained by either the pre-electoral “loose” monetary and fiscal policies and/or by an opportunistic timing of increases in publicly controlled prices, or indirect taxes.     

论股票市场对扩张性货币政策效力的影响及相应对策

面对我国20世纪90年代中期以来的通货紧缩状况，货币当局实施了一系列扩张性货币政策。由于我国股票市场在发展过程中的一些问题、银行体制上的缺陷以及宏观经济环境的影响等因素，股票市场并不能在货币政策和实体经济之间有效地发挥传导作用；货币政策本身也受到了股票市场发展的重要影响。为解决问题，应当在股票市场、企业投资环境和货币政策本身三个方面进行完善。     

我国货币政策传导过程中的“渗漏”效应

通过对 5年多来我国“积极”货币政策效果不尽如人意原因的研究 ,本文认为 :货币政策传导过程中有大量货币不是被传导并作用于生产、流通和消费等实体经济环节 ,而是“渗漏”到股票市场“漏斗”和银行体系“黑洞” ,其效应构成了实现货币政策目标的反制力量。公众心理预期变化、收入分配差距拉大和区域经济发展不平衡是“渗漏”效应产生的最直接、甚至是最重要的原因 ,它们交织在一起 ,共同驱动货币在货币政策传导过程中大量“渗漏” ,导致严重的“渗漏”效应。为提高我国货币政策的有效性 ,必须有效抑制“渗漏”效应。     

Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic

I use the valuation equation of government debt to understand fiscal and monetary policy in and following the great recession of 2008–2009. I also examine policy alternatives to avoid deflation, and how fiscal pressures might lead to inflation. I conclude that the central bank may be almost powerless to avoid deflation or inflation; that an eventual fiscal inflation can come well before large deficits or monetization are realized, and that it is likely to come with stagnation rather than a boom.     

人口老龄化影响财政与货币政策的有效性吗?

文章将人口结构、财政支出结构和货币政策引入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡框架,重点分析了人口老龄化对我国宏观调控经济政策的影响.研究结果显示:除了人口老龄化自身对经济增长的负面影响,留给宏观调控政策的腾挪空间也越发有限?影响政策调控的有效性,增加政策实施的成本.(1)除了加重财政养老负担,人口老龄化更损害财政刺激效果和财政绩效质量,限制政府实施反周期政策的能力,压缩财政政策发挥的空间;(2)老年人主导的社会对通货膨胀的容忍度将不断下调,势必削弱货币政策刺激总需求能力,增加政策实施成本,迫使中央银行改变货币政策操作方式,可能采取更激进措施以实现相同效果,强化金融脆弱性;(3)相比增加人口生育率,提高劳动参与率既是缓解短期财政养老负担、保障养老融资可持续性的关键,也是有效增加劳动供给、改善政策发挥生态环境,进而提高财政政策与货币政策有效性的权宜之计.     

Optimal Monetary Policy

Optimal monetary policy maximizes the welfare of a representative agent, given frictions in the economic environment. Constructing a model with two sets of frictions—costly price adjustment by imperfectly competitive firms and costly exchange of wealth for goods—we find optimal monetary policy is governed by two familiar principles. First, the average level of the nominal interest rate should be sufficiently low, as suggested by Milton Friedman, that there should be deflation on average. Yet, the Keynesian frictions imply that the optimal nominal interest rate is positive. Second, as various shocks occur to the real and monetary sectors, the price level should be largely stabilized, as suggested by Irving Fisher, albeit around a deflationary trend path. Since expected inflation is roughly constant through time, the nominal interest rate must therefore vary with the Fisherian determinants of the real interest rate. Although the monetary authority has substantial leverage over real activity in our model economy, it chooses real allocations that closely resemble those which would occur if prices were flexible. In our benchmark model, there is some tendency for the monetary authority to smooth nominal and real interest rates.     

The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence

Abstract What explains the widespread fear of deflation? This article reviews the history of thought, economic history, and empirical evidence on deflation, with a view to answering this question. It also outlines informally the main effects of deflation in applied monetary models. The main finding is that – for both historical and contemporary deflations – there are many open, empirical questions that could be answered using the tools economists use to study inflation and monetary policy more generally.     

当前宏观经济政策中几个疑点问题分析

本在充分肯定当前宏观经济政策基本走向的同时,对财政政策、货币政策、收入分配政策中几个疑点问题进行了全面深入的分析,提出了富有新意的见解。作的结论是：“积极的财政政策”、“适当的货币政策”,这样的概括和称谓不科学;反通货紧缩用货币量的单纯扩张不能通缩的结果很可能是滞胀;公职人员加薪不能带动其他社会成员增收,其它社会群体增加收入要从他们所处的现实经济关系中去寻找。     

Money and the rule of law in ecuador

The rule of law is defined and its implications in the monetary sphere are elaborated. When national monetary arrangements fail to comport with the rule of law, “dollarization” is desirable. That policy provides for more stable money and expectations about its future value. The salutary effects of Ecuador's “dollarization” program of 2000 are reviewed. In addition, a manifesto for economic reform in Ecuador is presented. Its elements are: financial integration, fiscal transparency and control, tax simplification and reform, supermajority voting, deregulation, and privatization.     

Fiscal space on the eurozone periphery and the use of the (partially) balanced-budget multiplier: The case of Spain

This article adopts the “functional finance” approach to consider the utilization of expansive fiscal policies in the members of the European Monetary Union most affected by high unemployment. As they do not have their own monetary policy, fiscal deficits require the issuing of public debt without the support of the central bank. The authors consequently incorporate the notion of a (partially) balanced-budget expansion to achieve the desired stimulus in gross domestic product (GDP) with the least possible effect on public debt. Their proposal is only a sort of “imperfect” balanced-budget expansion: It is based on the idea that simultaneous increases in public revenue and expenditure can boost GDP, but without any pretension of keeping public deficit unchanged. Specifically, the authors use the case of Spain to show that a more expansive fiscal policy is desirable on economic grounds, and that only institutional constraints prevent it. They do it presenting two alternative scenarios for the coming years and analyzing their different impact on unemployment and fiscal sustainability. The first represents a firm commitment to budget consolidation, whereas the second is based on this “imperfect” application of the balanced budget multiplier. The main conclusion is that a more expansive fiscal policy is perfectly compatible with finance sustainability.     

Policy credibility and alternative approaches to disinflation

This paper examines how central bank credibility affects the merits of a “gradualist” versus “cold turkey” approach to disinflation in a DSGE model in which private agents use optimal filtering to infer the central bank’s nominal anchor. Our analysis is applied to two episodes of sharp and deliberate monetary tightening in the United States – the post-WWI deflation and the Volcker disinflation. For a policy regime with relatively high credibility, our analysis highlights the benefits of a gradualist approach; thus, the aggressive tightening that occurred in 1920–21 did not seem warranted. In contrast, for a policy regime with relatively low credibility (such as the Federal Reserve in late 1980), an aggressive policy stance can play an important signalling role by making the policy shift more evident to private agents.     

论我国现阶段的汇率政策——兼谈人民币应否贬值问题

目前发生的通货紧缩,总需求不足的根本原因在于总需求发生流程梗阻。因此,以扩大内需为主的支出增减型政策如财政政策货币政策的效果是有限的。中国的经济改革的深入进行需要一个比较高的经济增长速度,在内需难以启动的条件下,只能由外需即净出口的扩大来完成这一任务。汇率政策便成为最优的选择。本文的研究表明,人民币汇率变动对经济增长的贡献度是很高的。人民币贬值有其必要性及可行性。     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a post Keynesian open-economy model

Using a post Keynesian model, this study aims to analyze the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in an open economy with a managed exchange rate regime. The real exchange rate is modeled as an endogenous variable and inflation explained using the conflicting claims approach. The dynamic properties of macroeconomic equilibrium are evaluated in different regimes of fiscal and monetary policies. The main result of this study suggests that the preferred policy regime is the one in which economic authorities are complementary and fiscal policy plays an explicitly active role. In this regime, the fiscal policy must commit to the target for the rate of capacity utilization and the monetary authority must commit to the inflation target.     

我国企业投资对财政货币政策冲击反应的实证分析

本文运用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型方法研究了我国企业投资对财政货币政策冲击的反应。通过采用1998年1月～2009年4月的月度数据实证研究表明：在经济周期的不同阶段,央行控制货币供给量的能力存在差异,导致货币政策执行效果不同。在经济繁荣阶段,社会资金运用效率较高,不存在剩余流动性,央行可以较容易地通过调整基础货币和货币乘数控制货币供给总量。这时货币供给的外生性较强,货币政策作用效果比较显著;而在经济衰退阶段,可选择的投资机会较少,流动性相对过剩,货币供给内生性增强,这时央行采取扩张性货币政策不能有效提高货币供给量,货币政策作用效果减弱。短期内虽然财政支出对企业投资会产生正向影响,但是负向影响要大于正向影响,也就是说财政政策对企业投资具有明显的挤出效应。