Growth,inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence

The study presents comparative global evidence on the transformation of economic growth to poverty reduction in developing countries, with emphasis on the role of income inequality. The focus is on the period since the early-mid-1990s when growth in these countries as a group has been relatively strong, surpassing that of the advanced economies. Both regional and country-specific data are analyzed for the $1.25 and $2.50-level poverty headcount ratios using World Bank Povcalnet data. The study finds that on average income growth has been the major driving force behind both the declines and increases in poverty. The study, however, documents substantial regional and country differences that are masked by this ‘average’ dominant-growth story. While in the majority of countries, growth was the major factor behind falling or increasing poverty, inequality, nevertheless, played the crucial role in poverty behavior in a large number of countries. And, even in those countries where growth has been the main driver of poverty-reduction, further progress could have occurred under relatively favorable income distribution. For more efficient policymaking, therefore, idiosyncratic attributes of countries should be emphasized. In general, high initial levels of inequality limit the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty while growing inequality increases poverty directly for a given level of growth. It would seem judicious, therefore, to accord special attention to reducing inequality in certain countries where income distribution is especially unfavorable. Unfortunately, the present study also points to the limited effects of growth and inequality-reducing policies in low-income countries.     

Foreign direct investment,growth and income inequality in less developed countries

How does foreign direct investment (FDI) affect economic growth in less developed countries (LDCs)? What is its association with changes in the income distribution? This paper empirically examines these issues within a cross section of less developed countries between 1970 and 1989. FDI is positively associated with economic growth within this sample of countries. However, there is no strong association between FDI and changes in income inequality within these same countries and over this same time period. Hence, there is no evidence that FDI is increasing income inequality within this group of LDCs.     

Africa is on time

We present evidence that the recent African growth renaissance has reached Africa’s poor. Using survey data on African income distributions and national accounts GDP, we estimate income distributions, poverty rates, and inequality indices for African countries for the period 1990–2011. We show that: (1) African poverty is falling rapidly; (2) the African countries for which good inequality data exists are set to reach the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) poverty target on time. The entire continent except for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will reach the MDG in 2014, one year in advance, and adding the DRC will delay the MDG until 2018; (3) the growth spurt that began in 1995, if anything, decreased African income inequality instead of increasing it; (4) African poverty reduction is remarkably general: it cannot be explained by a large country, or even by a single set of countries possessing some beneficial geographical or historical characteristic. All classes of countries, including those with disadvantageous geography and history, experience reductions in poverty. In particular, poverty fell for both landlocked as well as coastal countries; for mineral-rich as well as mineral-poor countries; for countries with favorable or with unfavorable agriculture; for countries regardless of colonial origin; and for countries with below- or above-median slave exports per capita during the African slave trade.     

INNOVATION AND INEQUALITY IN A SMALL WORLD

We present a multicountry theory of economic growth and R&D-driven technological progress in which countries are connected by a network of knowledge exchange. Technological progress in any country depends on the state of technology in the countries it exchanges knowledge with. The diffusion of knowledge throughout the world explains a period of increasing world inequality, followed by decreasing relative inequality. Knowledge diffusion through a small world network produces an extraordinary diversity of country growth performances, including the overtaking of individual countries and the replacement of the technologically leading country in the course of world development.     

Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries

Evidence from a broad panel of countries shows little overall relation between income inequality and rates of growth and investment. For growth, higher inequality tends to retard growth in poor countries and encourage growth in richer places. The Kuznets curve—whereby inequality first increases and later decreases during the process of economic development—emerges as a clear empirical regularity. However, this relation does not explain the bulk of variations in inequality across countries or over time.     

Top Income Adjustments and Inequality: An Investigation of the EU-SILC†

This paper provides a novel assessment of how the World Inequality Database (WID) top income adjustment applied by Blanchet, Chancel, and Gethin (2021) to European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data for 26 countries over 2003–2017 for Distributional National Accounts purposes affects inequality in equivalized gross and disposable household income. On average, the Gini is increased by around 2.4 points for both gross and disposable income, with notable differences across countries but limited impact on trends. EU-SILC countries that rely on administrative register data see relatively small effects on inequality. Comparing with two other recent studies, differences in impacts on measured inequality depend less on the adjustment method and more on whether external data sources are used.     

Distributional national accounts for the Netherlands and a comparison with 12 other countries

Most inequality studies rely on micro data that do not capture a substantial share of income identified in the national accounts. In the Netherlands, almost one fifth of household disposable income is missed by current inequality statistics. In this paper, we present inequality statistics for the Netherlands that capture all of household income, so-called distributional national accounts. Compared to the current inequality statistics, the Gini coefficient for disposable income increases substantially from 0.289 to 0.337. Cross-country comparisons show that such a change between Gini coefficients based on micro-data versus Gini coefficients based on distributional national accounts does not apply to all countries. The difference between both Gini coefficients varies not only between countries in the size, but also in the sign of the difference.     

The impacts of China on economic growth: Evidence for Brazil,Chile, and Peru

This study empirically analyzes the direct impacts derived from the swift increase in exports to China (referred to as “the impact of China”) on the economic growth of three selected South American countries, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, during the commodity boom between 2001 and 2008. The results stemming from the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model suggest that the magnitude of China’s impact was less than 1 percent, although it ranged from the largest to the second largest impact among all trading partners for the three countries. The estimated balance-of-payments growth rate of domestic income is lower than the real growth rate of domestic income. This is because the growth rates of the export volumes were not sufficient even during the commodity boom, on account of the continued increasing trends of income elasticity of demand for imports. Furthermore, the income elasticities of demand for imports from China were especially high. Therefore, the three countries will continue to face further increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports as well as a stagnant growth rate of export volumes. Thus, the balance-of-payments position will continue to be the main growth constraint for these countries.     

Inequality of opportunity in sub-Saharan Africa

Inequality of opportunity is defined as the difference in individuals’ outcome systematically correlated with morally irrelevant pre-determined circumstances, such as ethnicity, socio-economic background, area of birth. This definition has been extensively studied by economists on the assumption that, in addition to being normatively undesirable, it can be related to low potentials for growth. However, empirical estimations of inequality of opportunity require accessing rich data sources, rarely available in poorer countries. In this paper, we exploit 13 consumption household surveys to evaluate inequality of opportunity in 10 Sub-Saharan African countries. According to our results, the portion of total inequality that can be attributed to exogenous circumstances is between 40% and 56% for the generality of countries. Our estimates are significantly higher than what has been found by previous studies. We detect a positive association between total consumption inequality and inequality of opportunity, and we study the different sources of unequal opportunities. The place of birth and the education of the father appear to exert the most relevant role in shaping inequality of opportunity in the region.     

On poverty traps,thresholds and take-offs

Recent studies on economic growth focus on persistent inequality across countries. In this paper we study mechanisms that may give rise to such persistent inequality. We consider countries that accumulate capital in order to increase the per capita income in the long run. We show that the long-run growth dynamics of those countries can generate a twin-peak distribution of per capita income. The twin-peak distribution is caused by (1) locally increasing returns to scale and (2) capital market constraints. These two forces give rise to a twin-peaked distribution of per capita income in the long run. In our model investment decisions are separated from consumption decisions and we thus do not have to consider preferences. Empirical evidence in support of a twin-peak distribution of per capita income is provided.     

Patterns of Skill Premia

This paper develops a model to analyse how skill premia differ over time and across countries, and uses this model to study the impact of international trade on wage inequality. Skill premia are determined by technology, the relative supply of skills, and trade. Technology is itself endogenous, and responds to profit incentives. An increase in the relative supply of skills, holding technology constant, reduces the skill premium. But an increase in the supply of skills over time also induces a change in technology, increasing the demand for skills. The most important result of the paper is that increased international trade induces skill-biased technical change. As a result, trade opening can cause a rise in inequality both in the U.S. and the less developed countries, and thanks to the induced skill-biased technical change, this can happen without a rise in the relative prices of skill-intensive goods in the U.S., which is the usual intervening mechanism in the standard trade models.     

A World of Contrasted but Interdependent Inequality Regimes: The Latin America Paradox

The previous issue of this journal published an explanation of three contemporary paradoxes: dramatically increased inequalities in China despite economic development reducing poverty; the excessively large costs incurred by the state following a surge of inequality in the finance-led growth regime of the United States (US); and, within Europe, some social democratic countries continue to exhibit a complementarity between and extended welfare system, more moderate inequalities and a dynamic innovation and production system. This analysis concluded that the US, Chinese and European inequality regimes are different but they express complementary growth patterns. Applying the same socio-economic approach, based upon the concept of inequality regimes, this article addresses another contemporary paradox. Latin America, previously the continent with the highest inequality, has reversed the former dynamics to exhibit a growth pattern based upon inequality reduction, while still relying heavily upon a strong international demand for commodities. This analysis investigates the durability and likelihood of the Latin American U-turn and concludes that there is a possible alternative to the hypothesis of an irreversible globalization of inequality because China, North America, Europe and Latin America do not follow the same trajectory, having developed contrasting regimes of inequality that co-evolve and are largely complementary at the global level. Consequently the future of more inclusive Latin American (and other) economies depends on the interaction between new domestic democratic advances and the reconfiguration of the international economy.     

All About the Giants: Probing the Influences on World Growth and Income Inequality at the End of the 20th Century

This paper presents estimates of world output growth from 1970to 2000, the distribution of income among countries and personsfor the years 1980, 1990 and 2000, and world income povertyrates for the same years. It also presents the results of aseries of simulation exercises that attempt to isolate the effectof particular country and regional experiences on world outputgrowth and changes in global income inequality and poverty. The authors find that rapid growth in China (despite a downwardadjustment of official growth estimates) had a powerful impacton the growth of world output in both the 1980s and 1990s, butthat negative economic growth in Eastern Europe more than offsetthat effect in the 1990s. With respect to the distribution ofworld income between countries, the impressive growth performancesof the worlds most populous countries, China and India, ensureddecreasing levels of inequality during both the 1980s and 1990s.When the distribution of world income between persons is measured,the equalizing effect of China's rapid growth remains dominantthrough both the 1980s and 1990s, despite the contradictoryimpact of increasing domestic inequality. Only India's influenceremained substantial by comparison. Other identifiable eventsof the period, such as the economic contraction in Eastern Europeand continued economic decline in Africa, had little statisticalimpact. However, when the combined influence of China and India'sabove-average growth rates is removed, or their size effectdampened, the improving global distribution of (inter-countryand inter-personal) income suggested by all statistical measuresbecomes one of sharply worsening inequality. The impact of thesetwo countries is similarly critical with respect to global povertyreduction. (JEL F0, I3, O4)     

How does wealth distribution affect firm's incentive to innovate better quality goods?

The paper contributes to the literature relating to inequality and economic growth, in particular, we investigate the effects of wealth distribution on the kind of growth driven by innovation, i.e. Schumpeterian growth. Since two types of individuals are assumed, the poor and the rich, Gini-coefficient is treated in two variables, namely the relative wealth of the poor and the population share of the poor, each having a different effect on economic performance. Particularly in the separating equilibrium, an improvement in the relative wealth of the poor impedes economic growth, but a decline in the population share of the poor enhances economic growth. Furthermore, the current paper combines the Schumpeterian quality improvement model and the neoclassic production function. Thus, the impact of wealth inequality on economic growth is through the supply of human capital as well as the demand for better quality goods. Our results suggest that empirical research on the base of Gini-coefficient cannot generate a general relationship between wealth inequality and economic growth.     

Income inequality and the development of environmental technologies

Within rich countries, a large dispersion in the capacity of generating environmental innovations appears correlated to the level of inequality. Previous works analyze the relationship between inequality and environmental quality in a static setting. This paper builds a dynamic model more suitable to analyze technological externalities driven by the emergence of a new demand for green products. Under fairly general assumptions on technology and preferences, we show that: 1. the relationship between inequality and environmental innovation is highly non-linear and crucially depends on per-capita income; 2. an excessive inequality harms the development of environmental technologies especially in rich countries. Key to our results is the fact that externalities generated by pioneer consumers of green products benefit the entire population only for relatively low income distances. The empirical analysis robustly confirms our theoretical results, that is: whereas for rich countries inequality negatively affects the diffusion of innovations, per-capita income is paramount in poorer ones.     

Import prices,income, and inequality

We compare three theoretical explanations for the positive empirical relationship between importer income per capita and traded goods prices. A first explanation is that consumers with higher incomes demand higher quality goods with higher prices. A second explanation is that wealthier people exhibit an increased willingness to pay for necessary goods as more goods enter the consumption set in a hierarchic demand system, and can thus be charged higher markups. A third explanation is that consumers with higher incomes are more finicky regarding their preferred variety in an ideal variety framework and can thus be charged higher markups. We discriminate between these three theories by focusing on the effect of income inequality on trade prices. Based on a large dataset with bilateral HS6 level data on 1260 final goods categories from more than 100 countries between 2000 and 2004, we find a highly significant negative effect of income inequality on unit values. This contradicts both the demand for quality and finickyness theories, while providing support for the increased willingness to pay theory linked to hierarchic demand. These findings on income inequality do not falsify the quality expansion model and the ideal variety model per se. However, the results do argue for place of importance of hierarchic demand.     

Trade and Inequality with Limited Labor Mobility: Theory and Evidence from China

Does globalization increase inequality in developing countries, and if so, how? In a theoretical model of a regionally heterogeneous economy, we show how different regional rates of technical progress due to trade and FDI interact with constraints to unskilled labor mobility. As favored regions benefit more from trade, their growing demand for skills drains skilled workers from disadvantaged areas, and average incomes in the former grow faster than in the latter. Moreover, this unbalanced regional growth may also raise inequality within each region. It could even reduce absolute income per capita in the less favored region. We test these predictions with Chinese data from the Open Door era. Results confirm that different regional growth rates have increased both interregional and intraregional inequality. Moreover, growth of skills‐based export industries in coastal regions is associated, other things equal, with lower incomes for the poor in inland provinces.     

Greenfield FDI and skill upgrading: A polarized issue

Outbound FDI is often accused of increasing income inequality in developed countries by shifting labour demand from low‐skilled towards high‐skilled workers (wage polarization). In response, we employ data on greenfield FDI that, in contrast to M&As, may be more clearly linked to skill upgrading. Our data also delineate greenfield FDI by sector, function and destination, allowing us to control for different motives and skill intensities for 17 developed countries for 2003–2005. We find that greenfield FDI in support services, e.g., back and front office services, induces polarized skill upgrading, benefitting high‐skilled workers at the expense of medium‐skilled workers, thereby polarizing wages.     

Precautionary Demand for Education, Inequality, and Technological Progress

This paper offers an explanation for the evolution of wage inequality within and between industries and education groups over the past several decades. The model is based on the disproportionate depreciation of technology-specific skills versus general skills due to technological progress, which occurs randomly across sectors. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model predicts that increasing randomness is the primary source of inequality growth within uneducated workers, whereas inequality growth within educated workers is determined more by changes in the composition and return to ability. Increasing randomness generates a precautionary demand for education, which we show empirically to be significant.     

Meeting the Social Policy Challenges Facing Korea

Korea faces the fastest population aging among Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and increasing levels of income inequality and relative poverty. While economic growth will help address these challenges, growth alone is not sufficient, making it necessary to introduce policies to promote social cohesion. First, the National Pension Scheme and the National Health Insurance need to be improved. Second, Korea should develop well‐targeted social programs and expand the earned income tax credit. Third, it is important to reduce labor market dualism, a major cause of inequality due to the large wage gap between regular and non‐regular workers. Fourth, education reform is needed to lower the financial burden of tertiary education, reduce the heavy reliance on hagwon and increase spending on preprimary education. At the same time, it is essential to maintain a sound fiscal position by increasing tax revenues, primarily through indirect taxes and environmental taxes, to cover rising social spending.