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Conger JA 《Harvard business review》1998,76(3):84-95
Business today is largely run by teams and populated by authority-averse baby boomers and Generation Xers. That makes persuasion more important than ever as a managerial tool. But contrary to popular belief, the author asserts, persuasion is not the same as selling an idea or convincing opponents to see things your way. It is instead a process of learning from others and negotiating a shared solution. To that end, persuasion consists of four essential elements: establishing credibility, framing to find common ground, providing vivid evidence, and connecting emotionally. Credibility grows, the author says, out of two sources: expertise and relationships. The former is a function of product or process knowledge and the latter a history of listening to and working in the best interest of others. But even if a persuader's credibility is high, his position must make sense--even more, it must appeal--to the audience. Therefore, a persuader must frame his position to illuminate its benefits to everyone who will feel its impact. Persuasion then becomes a matter of presenting evidence--but not just ordinary charts and spreadsheets. The author says the most effective persuaders use vivid--even over-the-top--stories, metaphors, and examples to make their positions come alive. Finally, good persuaders have the ability to accurately sense and respond to their audience's emotional state. Sometimes, that means they have to suppress their own emotions; at other times, they must intensify them. Persuasion can be a force for enormous good in an organization, but people must understand it for what it is: an often painstaking process that requires insight, planning, and compromise. 相似文献
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Corporate “mitigation” efforts to limit greenhouse gases alone will not be sufficient to protect companies against future environmental impacts. For most companies intent on preserving their operating efficiency and value, “adaptation”—the process of changing behavior in response to actual or expected climate change impacts—is emerging as a critical partner to mitigation efforts aimed at reducing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The recent growth in the expected costs associated with the risk of climate change emphasizes the importance of developing new technology and redesigning infrastructure and other assets that will enable companies to respond to such change without excessive reductions in profitability. The nature and extent of adaptation in each situation will depend on the costs involved relative to the benefits of adopting different adaptation strategies to achieve a target level of resilience. Companies that choose to adapt and do so effectively are expected to benefit from an improvement in their net risk‐return profile. Consistent with this expectation, the authors found that a sample of companies from the European energy sector that adapted to the 2005 EU climate change mandate by diversifying their fuel sources (mainly away from coal) experienced reductions in both risk and return while non‐adapting firms experienced roughly the same returns, but at the cost of higher risk. The benefit of adapting is thus seen as showing up not in higher returns per se, but in higher risk‐adjusted returns. 相似文献
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Tina Loraas 《Advances in accounting, incorporating advances in international accounting》2009,25(1):49-56
The purpose of this study is to more fully understand when quantitative analyses are more persuasive than qualitative analyses. Forty-seven executives responded to an experiment where they evaluated a business proposal recommending an increase in the information systems controls budget, where potential benefits were presented via either a quantitative or qualitative analysis. When the executives were familiar with the context, the quantitative analyses were more persuasive. However, when the executives were less familiar with the context, qualitative analyses that were framed negatively were more persuasive than quantitative analyses. These findings are important theoretically and pragmatically. From a theoretical standpoint, I demonstrate that familiarity with the context predicates how quantification affects decision-makers. In addition, I offer evidence that qualitative analyses that emphasize what has been, or could be, avoided may be a viable persuasive tactic when the decision-maker is unfamiliar with the context. 相似文献
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Shripad Tuljapurkar 《North American actuarial journal : NAAJ》2013,17(4):127-134
Abstract This paper enumerates questions about the assumptions, methods, and interpretation of mortality projections that are made for policy applications. These questions are of practical concern to people who make and use projections, and cover a much narrower scope than the review by Tuljapurkar and Boe (pp. 13–47). The objective in circulating this paper was to provide an initial focus for participants at the SOA meeting. 相似文献
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Abstract Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement but have led to concern over their implications for public spending on old-age support. This paper makes a critical assessment of knowledge about mortality change. It is oriented toward the problem of forecasting the course of mortality change and the potential of existing work to contribute to the development of useful forecasts in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. We first examine broad patterns in the historical decline in death rates in the three countries, the effect of these on trends in life expectancy, and the epidemiological transition. Next we review theories of the age pattern and evolution of mortality, including graduations, evolutionary theory, reliability models, dynamic models, and relational models. The analysis and forecasting of mortality change have been shaped largely by some key historical lessons, which we summarize next. We emphasize issues that have been or are likely to be significant in mortality analysis, especially the questions of the age pattern and time trend in mortality at old ages; we distinguish patterns and facts that are established from those that remain uncertain. Next, we consider mortality differentials in characteristics such as sex, marital status, education, and socioeconomic variables; we summarize their key features and also point to the substantial gaps in our understanding of their determinants. Finally, we review methods of forecasting, including the scenario method used by the U.S. Social Security Administration and the time series method of Lee and Carter. We set out some important recommendations for forecasters: forecasting assumptions should be made more formal and explicit; there should be retrospective evaluations of forecast performance; and greater attention should be paid to the assessment and consequences of forecast uncertainty. 相似文献
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Ostroff F 《Harvard business review》2006,84(5):141-7, 158
Since the days of John F. Kennedy's New Frontier, the American public's regard for the competence of public agencies and the value of the services they perform has steadily declined. During that time, innovations in management practice and thinking have mostly originated and been tested in the private sector. But recent events, such as the attacks on the World Trade Center and the engulfment of New Orleans, have demonstrated how essential it is for public agencies to be well run, too. Unfortunately, few public administrators have a background in change management, and a variety of factors-such as civil service rules, political considerations, and the limited tenures of agency heads-have combined to make true reform a rare event. These facts of public life may never go away. But some agency leaders have figured out how to court important stakeholders, rededicate staffers to an agency's true mission, undertake reform so comprehensively that resistant elements are unable to subvert it, and lay the groundwork for next steps clearly and systematically. Consultant Frank Ostroff has studied turnarounds at the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration, the Government Accountability Office, and Special Operations Forces-the fast-response, clandestine arm of the military. From these examples and others, he has distilled five principles that underlie successful change efforts: Improve performance against agency mission; win over external and internal stakeholders; establish a road map; recognize the connections among all the organizational elements; and be a leader, not a bureaucrat. Change programs that follow these principles are more likely to survive when leadership changes hands. 相似文献
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中国资产管理公司面临嬗变 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
中国资产管理公司现已走到了发展道路上的转折点,从内部条件和外部环境看,资产管理公司只能也必须从政策性机构向完全商业化的金融机构转化,而资产管理公司的这一嬗变也必将成为深化中国金融体制改革的强劲动力。 相似文献
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