The necessary art of persuasion

Business today is largely run by teams and populated by authority-averse baby boomers and Generation Xers. That makes persuasion more important than ever as a managerial tool. But contrary to popular belief, the author asserts, persuasion is not the same as selling an idea or convincing opponents to see things your way. It is instead a process of learning from others and negotiating a shared solution. To that end, persuasion consists of four essential elements: establishing credibility, framing to find common ground, providing vivid evidence, and connecting emotionally. Credibility grows, the author says, out of two sources: expertise and relationships. The former is a function of product or process knowledge and the latter a history of listening to and working in the best interest of others. But even if a persuader's credibility is high, his position must make sense--even more, it must appeal--to the audience. Therefore, a persuader must frame his position to illuminate its benefits to everyone who will feel its impact. Persuasion then becomes a matter of presenting evidence--but not just ordinary charts and spreadsheets. The author says the most effective persuaders use vivid--even over-the-top--stories, metaphors, and examples to make their positions come alive. Finally, good persuaders have the ability to accurately sense and respond to their audience's emotional state. Sometimes, that means they have to suppress their own emotions; at other times, they must intensify them. Persuasion can be a force for enormous good in an organization, but people must understand it for what it is: an often painstaking process that requires insight, planning, and compromise.     

Preserving Value through Adaptation to Climate Change

Corporate “mitigation” efforts to limit greenhouse gases alone will not be sufficient to protect companies against future environmental impacts. For most companies intent on preserving their operating efficiency and value, “adaptation”—the process of changing behavior in response to actual or expected climate change impacts—is emerging as a critical partner to mitigation efforts aimed at reducing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The recent growth in the expected costs associated with the risk of climate change emphasizes the importance of developing new technology and redesigning infrastructure and other assets that will enable companies to respond to such change without excessive reductions in profitability. The nature and extent of adaptation in each situation will depend on the costs involved relative to the benefits of adopting different adaptation strategies to achieve a target level of resilience. Companies that choose to adapt and do so effectively are expected to benefit from an improvement in their net risk‐return profile. Consistent with this expectation, the authors found that a sample of companies from the European energy sector that adapted to the 2005 EU climate change mandate by diversifying their fuel sources (mainly away from coal) experienced reductions in both risk and return while non‐adapting firms experienced roughly the same returns, but at the cost of higher risk. The benefit of adapting is thus seen as showing up not in higher returns per se, but in higher risk‐adjusted returns.     

以绩效考核推动医院财务职能转变

充分利用管理会计的理论与方法,构建绩效考核指标(KPI)体系,通过实施全面周期性的控制调节与考核奖惩,以绩效考核为载体,管理会计的方法为手段,推动医院财务职能积极向管理会计职能转变.适应医院管理向精细型管理转变的要求,实现财务管理对医院整个经济活动核算与监督、预测与决策、控制与调节、分析与评价、考核与奖惩的全过程管理与调控.     

The effects of quantification on persuasion in unfamiliar contexts: The case of information systems controls

The purpose of this study is to more fully understand when quantitative analyses are more persuasive than qualitative analyses. Forty-seven executives responded to an experiment where they evaluated a business proposal recommending an increase in the information systems controls budget, where potential benefits were presented via either a quantitative or qualitative analysis. When the executives were familiar with the context, the quantitative analyses were more persuasive. However, when the executives were less familiar with the context, qualitative analyses that were framed negatively were more persuasive than quantitative analyses. These findings are important theoretically and pragmatically. From a theoretical standpoint, I demonstrate that familiarity with the context predicates how quantification affects decision-makers. In addition, I offer evidence that qualitative analyses that emphasize what has been, or could be, avoided may be a viable persuasive tactic when the decision-maker is unfamiliar with the context.     

Forecasting Mortality Change

Abstract

This paper enumerates questions about the assumptions, methods, and interpretation of mortality projections that are made for policy applications. These questions are of practical concern to people who make and use projections, and cover a much narrower scope than the review by Tuljapurkar and Boe (pp. 13–47). The objective in circulating this paper was to provide an initial focus for participants at the SOA meeting.     

因势求变

2007年末的中央经济工作会议明确提出,2008年要实施稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策。货币政策从“稳健”转为“从紧”,发出的强烈政策信号,意味着实施十年之久的稳健的货币政策可能“功成身退”。     

Change management in government

Since the days of John F. Kennedy's New Frontier, the American public's regard for the competence of public agencies and the value of the services they perform has steadily declined. During that time, innovations in management practice and thinking have mostly originated and been tested in the private sector. But recent events, such as the attacks on the World Trade Center and the engulfment of New Orleans, have demonstrated how essential it is for public agencies to be well run, too. Unfortunately, few public administrators have a background in change management, and a variety of factors-such as civil service rules, political considerations, and the limited tenures of agency heads-have combined to make true reform a rare event. These facts of public life may never go away. But some agency leaders have figured out how to court important stakeholders, rededicate staffers to an agency's true mission, undertake reform so comprehensively that resistant elements are unable to subvert it, and lay the groundwork for next steps clearly and systematically. Consultant Frank Ostroff has studied turnarounds at the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration, the Government Accountability Office, and Special Operations Forces-the fast-response, clandestine arm of the military. From these examples and others, he has distilled five principles that underlie successful change efforts: Improve performance against agency mission; win over external and internal stakeholders; establish a road map; recognize the connections among all the organizational elements; and be a leader, not a bureaucrat. Change programs that follow these principles are more likely to survive when leadership changes hands.     

Mortality Change and Forecasting

Abstract

Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement but have led to concern over their implications for public spending on old-age support. This paper makes a critical assessment of knowledge about mortality change. It is oriented toward the problem of forecasting the course of mortality change and the potential of existing work to contribute to the development of useful forecasts in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.

We first examine broad patterns in the historical decline in death rates in the three countries, the effect of these on trends in life expectancy, and the epidemiological transition. Next we review theories of the age pattern and evolution of mortality, including graduations, evolutionary theory, reliability models, dynamic models, and relational models.

The analysis and forecasting of mortality change have been shaped largely by some key historical lessons, which we summarize next. We emphasize issues that have been or are likely to be significant in mortality analysis, especially the questions of the age pattern and time trend in mortality at old ages; we distinguish patterns and facts that are established from those that remain uncertain. Next, we consider mortality differentials in characteristics such as sex, marital status, education, and socioeconomic variables; we summarize their key features and also point to the substantial gaps in our understanding of their determinants.

Finally, we review methods of forecasting, including the scenario method used by the U.S. Social Security Administration and the time series method of Lee and Carter. We set out some important recommendations for forecasters: forecasting assumptions should be made more formal and explicit; there should be retrospective evaluations of forecast performance; and greater attention should be paid to the assessment and consequences of forecast uncertainty.     

感受巨变

严冬过去就是春天！ 1979年成了让人难忘的历史新起点．中国迎来了万象更新的春天．阔步迈进了一个崭新的时代。     

CFO驭变

从低调潜行到首席忽悠,2012,看知名CFO如何演绎变化财道。天下武功,无坚不破,唯快不破。对公司理财而言,为企业创造价值,已成CFO共识,但在瞬息万变的商业环境中,唯有拥有应对变化的快速反映能力,才能真正赢。任何武功,都有自己的不足,防守的再好,也有破解方法,只要意识、攻、守、应机变化等速度远远高于对方,势必游刃有余。公司理财也是如此,现实工作中面临的种种困惑不仅仅要求CFO武功高强,要想轻松驾驭变化,必须具有快速化解困惑的能力,才能发挥武功的威力。     

中国期货市场将走上转变之路

没有转变,中国期货市场未来的道路将会更加艰难。中国是许多商品的产销大国,但由于没有自己的期货品种,在进出口贸易中不得不参考国外期货价格作为定价基准,同时对国际商品价格的剧烈波动也无能为力,这对中国的经济战略安全构成了极大威胁。中国期货市场的发展,要在经济全球化和中国加入WTO的大背景下,从维护国家整体经济利益、完善社会主义市场经济体制的高度,实现战略转变,不断推进期货制度的创新。