Trade,Technology and the Labour Market: The Case of South Africa*

This study advances previous work on the effects of trade and technological change on labour markets within the framework of Heckscher–Ohlin trade theory. We provide evidence for an unskilled labour abundant developing country by employing dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques. For South African manufacturing, trade‐mandated increases in earnings are positive for labour and negative for capital whilst technology‐mandated increases are negative for both factors. We also find it important to take account of endogeneity issues in analysing the impact of technology and price changes on factor returns and in isolating factor‐ and sector‐bias of technological changes.     

担保网络影响分析师盈余预测偏差吗？

以2008—2018年沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,采用社会网络分析法考察上市公司担保网络对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现,上市公司加入担保网络会显著增加分析师盈余预测偏差,降低预测准确度,这种负面效应在双向担保、跨省融资担保、长期处于担保网络以及位于担保网络结构洞位置的上市公司中更加明显,而上市公司选择退出担保网络则有效降低了这种负面影响,提高了分析师盈余预测准确度。进一步研究发现,会计信息可比性是担保网络影响分析师盈余预测偏差的一条重要作用路径。调节效应分析结果显示,高质量的内部控制、良好的公司治理等内部治理机制与媒体监督、机构投资者治理等外部治理机制均能够有效降低担保网络上市公司对分析师盈余预测偏差的消极影响。研究结果有助于进一步梳理企业间复杂关系对资本市场信息传递效率的影响,为资本市场各方参与者有效缓解担保网络的消极影响提供了经验证据与政策方向。     

The HRM–capital market link: Effects of securities analysts on strategic human capital

This article develops theory about an agency problem affecting the strategic human capital (SHC) of the firm. It proposes three categories of SHC‐related choices managers must make that imply a trade‐off between near‐ and long‐term performance. Dispersed shareholding, firm coverage by securities analysts, and their practice of publishing quarterly earnings forecasts are argued to entail a bias in management incentives, shifting the balance in this trade‐off toward near‐term performance. To restore the balance, securities analysts would need to distinguish transitory from recurring effects of SHC‐related choices in their valuation models (e.g., treating certain labor cost savings during cyclical downturns as transitory). Restoring the balance would also require them to anticipate long‐term effects in their long‐term earnings forecasts (e.g., long‐term positive effects of retaining employees with valuable skills during cyclical downturns). The article discusses specific transitory cost effects and long‐term effects they could potentially take into account. The skills and incentives needed by analysts to account for such effects are argued to vary across firm segments.     

The effect of physician advice on alcohol consumption: count regression with an endogenous treatment effect

Although there are encouraging trends, alcohol abuse continues to be a significant public health problem. Econometric studies of alcohol demand have yielded a great deal of information for alcohol abuse prevention policy. These studies suggest that higher alcohol taxes and stricter drunk‐driving policies can reduce heavy drinking and drunk driving. In this paper we explore the role physician advice plays in the campaign to prevent alcohol‐related problems. Compared to alcohol taxation, physician advice is a more precisely targeted intervention that does not impose extra costs on responsible drinkers. Compared to the resource costs of arresting, processing, and punishing drunk drivers, physician advice may be a lower‐cost intervention. To provide a basis for alcohol policy analysis, we use an alcohol demand framework to test whether physician‐provided information about the adverse consequences of alcohol abuse shifts demand to more moderate levels. There are three aspects of our alcohol demand model that complicate the estimation: (1) the dependent variable is non‐negative (it is a count variable—number of drinks consumed); (2) a non‐trivial number of sample observations have zero values for the dependent variable; and (3) because the data we use is non‐experimental, the treatment variable indicating receipt of advice from a physician may be endogenous. We implement an estimation method that is specifically designed to deal with these three complicating factors. Our results show that advice has a substantial and significant impact on alcohol consumption by males with hypertension, and that failing to account for the endogeneity of advice masks this result. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fertility and the human capital loss of non-participation

Female earnings function parameters are estimated jointly with interruption incidence and fertility decisions. We pay particular attention to the return to experience and the human capital loss parameter when women are allowed to self-select into various possible combinations of interruption and fertility outcomes. We find that ignoring endogenous fertility decisions may seriously bias the effect of non-employment spell lengths on female earnings, as well as the return to experience. To a large extent, the negative relationship between female earnings and non-employment spell length, that is widely documented in the earlier literature, is the result of a misspecification of the earnings functions.     

The Relationship between Slack Resources and the Performance of Entrepreneurial Firms: The Role of Venture Capital and Angel Investors

In this study, we seek to further delineate factors that condition the relationship between slack resources and firm performance. To do so, we develop and test a model that establishes the role of venture capital (VC) and angel investors as powerful external stakeholders who positively moderate the slack–performance relationship. In addition, we provide more insight into this relationship by examining differences between these two types of private investors and by examining the role of their ownership stakes. We test our hypotheses using a sample of 1215 private firms, including VC‐backed firms, angel‐backed firms, and similar firms without such investors. We find that the presence of VC investors positively moderates the relationship between both financial and human slack resources and firm performance, while angel investors only positively moderate the effect of human resource slack. Further, VC investors are only marginally better at helping entrepreneurs to extract value from human resource slack than angel investors and they are no better when it comes to financial slack. Finally, we find that the impact of financial and human resource slack on firm performance is more positive in VC‐backed firms when investors hold high ownership stakes, an effect which is significantly stronger than when angel investors hold high ownership stakes.     

When and why does transformational leadership influence employee creativity? The roles of personal control and creative personality

This study develops and tests a model of the underlying mechanisms linking transformational leadership and employee creativity using a sample of 240 matched middle‐level manager and front‐line supervisor dyads from a large foreign joint‐venture company in China. We propose that personal control and employee creative personality serve as a unique psychological mechanism and an important boundary condition to simultaneously influence the relationship between transformational leadership and employee creativity. Results of moderated‐mediation analyses provided support for our conceptual model, showing that transformational leadership was positively related to personal control, which also had a positive impact on employee creativity. Furthermore, creative personality was found to moderate the relationship between transformational leadership and personal control, which in turn, mediated the joint effect on employee creativity. Findings of this study provide insights into the research on leadership development and work design in HRM, which can inform human resource managers to design effective strategies and systems that can increase employees' creativity.     

Contribution of female human capital in economic growth: an empirical analysis of Pakistan (1972–2012)

This study is to find out an impact of female human capital on economic growth of Pakistan. The study has therefore, used gender separate human capital as an explanatory variable along with other factors, labor force and physical capital. In this regard a composite human capital has been constructed by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The long run and short run dynamics among female human capital and economic growth are empirically tested on time series data spread from 1972–2012. Johanson’s co-integration approach has been applied for the long run and Vector Error Correction Model used for the short run relationship. The results show that the long run relationship between female human capital and economic growth is positive and significant. While the short run impact of female human capital on economic growth is positive but statistically insignificant.     

The distinctive effects of earnings determinants across different job levels

This study proposes a structural model of earnings by integrating the arguments of gender discrimination, human capital, and segmented labour markets, three of the most popular perspectives for explaining variations in income. Our analysis makes use of an effective sample of 5,005 employees in Taiwan. The results show that in low-level jobs, gender plays an important role in earnings determination; but that in higher-level jobs, human capital replaces gender as a good predictor of earnings. We therefore argue that job level is a critical determinant of earnings disparity, especially in interaction with differences in gender and human capital investment.     

ALCOHOL MARKETING,ADOLESCENT DRINKING AND PUBLICATION BIAS IN LONGITUDINAL STUDIES: A CRITICAL SURVEY USING META‐ANALYSIS

Abstract This paper presents a meta‐analysis of prospective cohort (longitudinal) studies of alcohol marketing and adolescent drinking, which accounts for publication bias. The paper provides a summary of 12 primary studies of the marketing–drinking relationship. Each primary study surveyed a sample of youth to determine baseline drinking status and marketing exposure, and re‐surveyed the youth to determine subsequent drinking outcomes. Logistic analyses provide estimates of the odds ratio for effects of baseline marketing variables on adolescent drinking at follow‐up. Using meta‐regression analysis, two samples are examined in this paper: 23 effect‐size estimates for drinking onset (initiation); and 40 estimates for other drinking behaviours (frequency, amount, bingeing). Marketing variables include ads in mass media, promotion portrayals, brand recognition and subjective evaluations by survey respondents. Publication bias is assessed using funnel plots that account for ‘missing’ studies, bivariate regressions and multivariate meta‐regressions that account for primary study heterogeneity, heteroskedasticity, data dependencies, publication bias and truncated samples. The empirical results are consistent with publication bias, omitted variable bias in some studies, and lack of a genuine effect, especially for mass media. The paper also discusses ‘dissemination bias’ in the use of research results by primary investigators and health policy interest groups.     

International Financial Reporting Standards adoption and information quality: Evidence from Brazil

This paper examines whether the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Brazil in 2010 has improved the value relevance of accounting information, information content of earnings, financial analyst forecasting activities, and liquidity. We examine the variables in the pre‐IFRS mandatory adoption sample period, considered herein as 2008 to 2009, and the post‐IFRS adoption period of 2011 to 2012. We provide evidence demonstrating improvement in value relevance of earnings and number of analysts following the firms in the period after IFRS adoption, but we do not find improvements in information content of earnings, accuracy in analyst forecasting, and liquidity in the post‐adoption period. Our findings suggest a positive relationship between IFRS adoption and some areas of information quality in Brazil. By focusing on one important economy as it takes significant steps toward full convergence with IFRS, our study contributes to the growing literature concerning the impact of IFRS adoption around the world.     

Analysts' Forecasts in Asian-Pacific Markets: The Relationship among Macroeconomic Factors, Accounting Systems, Bias and Accuracy

In this study, we describe determinants of accuracy/bias of analysts' forecasts in 13 economies of the Asian‐Pacific region. Examination of the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts allows us to judge how accounting systems and macroeconomic distinctions in this region affect earnings predictability. As many investors rely on analysts' earnings forecasts instead of producing their own, the growth of international investment means forecasts in non‐US markets will become increasingly important to investors worldwide. Using a sample of firms with data available on Global Vantage and I/B/E/S International, we find that the analysts on average have a pessimistic bias in Asian‐Pacific markets. We examine whether macroeconomic factors explain part of the difference in the size of analyst forecast errors, using the global competitiveness rankings of the World Economic Forum (WEF). We expect that those nations which are more open to foreign trade and investment and are ranked more highly by the WEF in its Global Competitiveness Index will also have more accurate analyst forecasts, as increased global competitiveness demands greater integration into the world economy, and such integration should lead to more transparent financial statements and more accurate earnings forecasts. Our findings are consistent with this prediction. We also find that countries with low book‐tax conformity have more accurate earnings forecasts.     

THE EFFECTS OF HUMAN CAPITAL INTERVENTIONS ON ENTREPRENEURIAL PERFORMANCE IN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

This paper provides a systematic review of studies on the effects of human capital interventions on entrepreneurial performance in industrialized countries. We identify 21 experimental and quasi‐experimental studies published before September 2018. These studies examine the effects of business training, formal education, and entrepreneurship education. Their performance outcomes include firm profits, firm size, and entrepreneurial earnings. The main finding across these studies is that these interventions do not have statistically significant effects. Formal education is the only exception, showing positive effects on firm profits and entrepreneurial earnings, yet these effects are small in magnitude. Evidence is inconclusive regarding effect duration. These findings stand in stark contrast to correlational studies, which tend to find large positive correlations between human capital interventions and entrepreneurial performance. We therefore conclude that correlational studies tend to overestimate the benefits of human capital interventions. Moreover, our estimates show that the interventions are associated with moderately low additionality.     

How and when matter: Exploring the interaction effects of high‐performance work systems,employee participation,and human capital on organizational innovation

Existing research on the relationship between high‐performance work systems (HPWS) and organizational innovation has paid insufficient attention to the boundary effects of employee participation and human capital. Bridging the human resource management (HRM) and employment relations literature, this study contributes to the contingency view of HRM and China‐specific research by investigating how human capital and employee participation, direct voice mechanism, and corporate governance participation jointly moderate the relationship between HPWS and organizational innovation. We test our three‐way interaction model using a sample of 108 firms and 1,250 employees in China. The results suggest that HPWS are positively associated with organizational innovation when employees with relatively less human capital are coupled with more direct voice mechanism or less corporate governance participation. In contrast, HPWS are negatively related to organizational innovation when employees possessing greater human capital are coupled with more direct voice mechanism. The theoretical and managerial implications and future research directions are discussed.     

创业投资声誉、创业板IPOs初始收益和长期业绩

以我国创业板市场IPOs为样本,引入创业投资声誉对IPO折抑价理论模型进行修正,采用多元回归和两阶段回归方法,实证检验创业投资声誉与创业板IPOs初始收益和长期业绩之间的关系后发现:我国创业板市场中创业投资核证监督作用微弱;创业投资声誉对IPOs初始收益无显著影响;创业投资声誉对IPO后企业长期业绩有显著正效应。本文的研究结论对创投声誉下的创业板发行制度建设有积极作用。     

DOES EDUCATION REALLY IMPROVE HEALTH? A META‐ANALYSIS

While numerous studies assess the relationship between education and health, no consensus has been reached on whether education really improves health. We perform a meta‐analysis of 4866 estimates gleaned from 99 published studies that examine the health effects of education. We find that the current literature suffers from moderate publication bias towards the positive effects of education on health. After correcting for publication bias with an array of sophisticated methods, we find that the overall effect size is practically zero, indicating that education generates no discernible benefits to health. The heterogeneity analysis by Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Frequentist Model Averaging (FMA) reveals that the reported estimates can be largely explained by whether the econometric models control for endogeneity of education, the types of data and the differences in health measurements. Our results also suggest that education may not be an effective policy option for promoting population health.     

Estimating the economic return to educational levels using data on twins

This paper relaxes some restrictions of previous twin‐based estimates of the effects of education on earnings. First, it estimates the earnings premiums associated with different educational levels. Second, it estimates a piecewise linear relationship between the natural logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling. Third, the measurement error corrections are based on a less restrictive, ‘non‐classical’, measurement error model. The estimation strategy implies that ability bias can be investigated separately in different parts of the educational distribution. The linear relationship between the logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling is rejected. Furthermore, the results in the sample of identical (MZ) twins indicated both that the ability bias could be of different signs and of different magnitudes in different parts of the educational distribution. The twin‐based estimates in the sample of fraternal (DZ) twins did not display any marked differences as compared to the cross‐sectional estimates. Finally, the results indicated that the error‐corrected twin‐based estimates of the average return to years of schooling that rely on a classical measurement error model are upwards biased by approximately 30%. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using pre-commitment to reduce alcohol consumption: Lessons from a quasi-experiment in Thailand

Based on primary data of 453 drinkers in Thailand, this study investigates the impact of pre-commitment on alcohol consumption. It exploits the quasi-experimental nature of a social marketing campaign in Thailand implemented in 2014, where all drinkers were able to publicly pledge temporary alcohol abstention, and some but not all drinkers were provided with community-based health promotion interventions conducted by local residents. This study argues that the campaign had a pre-commitment device implicitly integrated into it; failures to follow through with the commitment were associated with mental costs of social embarrassment and weaker relationships with one's local social networks. Using a joint estimation method where the decision to pre-commit is explicitly endogenized, this study suggests that pre-commitment is effective in increasing the probabilities of temporary alcohol abstention and reduction.     

资本投入对我国经济增长的影响——基于拓展的MRW框架的分析

本文基于同时包含物质资本、教育资本、健康资本和R&D资本的拓展的MRW框架,根据我国31个省(市、自治区)1998~2007年的数据,考察了资本投入对我国人均实际产出以及经济增长的影响。研究发现,物质资本投资、教育投资和R&D投资对我国人均实际产出以及经济增长具有显著的促进作用,健康投资对产出水平有显著的促进作用,但对经济增长的影响不显著。在此基础上,本文估算了我国总量的生产函数以及资本投资的回报率。此外,本文还将全要素生产率内生化,进一步考察了资本投入对我国人均实际产出与经济增长的影响。     

INDIVIDUAL DETERMINANTS OF SELF‐EMPLOYMENT ENTRY: WHAT DO WE REALLY KNOW?

The analysis of the decision to enter into self‐employment is a hot topic in the economic literature. Among the elements that most directly influence this decision, individual factors are central. This study produces a comprehensive survey of the impact of these factors, covering both the theoretical arguments and the main conclusions emerging from the empirical studies. We analyze 12 critical determinant factors of the entry into self‐employment grouped into seven categories: (1) basic individual characteristics (gender, age, marital status, and children); (2) family background (parents and spouse); (3) personality characteristics; (4) human capital (education and experience); (5) health condition; (6) nationality and ethnicity; and (7) access to financial resources. While for some of the factors solid conclusions can be found, for others additional research is still needed in order to shed further light on their influence.