金融市场准入与农信社信贷支农关联:苏北样本

基于信息比较优势理论建立的农村信用社贷款配置选择模型及对苏北23个县域经验数据的实证研究表明:降低农村金融市场准入限制以后,企业贷款市场和农户贷款市场形成了不同的竞争格局,由此改变了农村信用社在两个市场上的信贷资金配置策略,使其支农意愿增加,对农户的贷款强度和广度均显著提升;同时,竞争使得农村信用社信息成本降低,农户贷款价格下降。但是农村信用社在农户贷款市场的垄断地位使其仍然拥有较强的客户选择权和定价权。因此,构建竞争性、多层次的农村金融体系,不仅需要引入商业性金融机构,还需要着力培育和发展新型农村金融机构,并充分发挥政策性金融的作用。     

Uganda: Constraints on Economic Growth

Abstract: This paper utilizes a three-gap model to evaluate the three macroeconomic constraints, domestic saving, foreign exchange and public sector resource availability, faced by Uganda as it attempts to rehabilitate and reconstruct its war-shattered economy. Using 1987 as a base year, the resulting three-gap equations demonstrate a sharp trade off between investment (economic growth) and capacity utilization under foreign exchange constraint. The model is simulated over the period 1988–92–a period closely corresponds to the Uganda's structural adjustment facility program as well as for the period 1993–97. The size of the foreign exchange gap, $634 and $545 per year during the first and second five years period, illustrates quite vividly the centrality of the foreign exchange constraint facing the Ugandan economy. The results also show that fiscal balances are not going to be restored before 1993.     

Credit Contagion and Trade Credit: Evidence from Small Business Data in Japan

The present study investigates whether credit contagion leads to a decrease in trade credit for small businesses. In 1997–1998, the Japanese economy experienced a deep recession, and the domino effect caused an increase in the number of dishonored bills and bankruptcy filings. During a period of credit contagion, the possibility of default increases for firms with more financial claims and lower cash holdings. We find that during a recession, trade payables for small businesses with higher trade receivables and lower cash holdings are reduced. The hypothesis that the effects of credit risk on trade payables are weakened is not supported.     

Household Financial Savings Mobilisation: Empirical Evidence from Uganda

Panel data are used to examine household savings behaviour inUganda and the part that is played by formal financial institutionsin mobilising those savings. We show that the probability ahousehold will acquire a deposit instrument from a financialinstitution increases significantly for both rural and urbanhouseholds with improvements in several factors. Those factorsinclude the level of information that is made available to thehousehold, the degree of household access to the financial institution,the level of education of the head of household and the densityof financial institutions in the area where the household islocated. Among those households that report holding bank savingsdeposits, the level of net deposits is positively influencedby increases in the availability of credit facilities, lowertransaction costs (as reflected by the quality of financialservices provided by the institution) and higher permanent income.Relatively higher real rates of return on physical assets andhigher transaction costs (due to reduced accessibility) bothhave significant negative effects on the level of net depositsheld by households.     

Supply and Demand for Livestock Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons for Designing New Credit Schemes

Based on analysis of credit supply in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria, it is shown that public credit institutions do not have sufficient funds to meet the demand for livestock credit and cannot mobilize savings from their clients or other commercial sources for one reason or another. In addition, available credit does not reach those who need it the most and with whom it could have the greatest impact due to the application of inappropriate screening procedures and criteria to determine creditworthiness. The analysis of demand based on borrowing and nonborrowing sample households using improved dairy technology, it is shown that not all borrowers borrowed due to liquidity constraint while some borrowers and some nonborrowers had liquidity constraint but did not have access to adequate credit. Logistic regression analysis show that sex and education of the household head, training in dairy, prevalence of outstanding loan and the number of improved cattle on the farm had significant influence on both borrowing and liquidity status of a household, though the degree and direction of influence were not always the same in each study country. Based on the findings it is suggested that combining public and commercial finance could solve the problem of inadequate credit supply while inventory finance to community level input suppliers and service providers might help in getting credit to worthy and needy smallholders at lower cost than providing credit to smallholders directly.     

Access to Improved Water Sources and Rural Productivity: Analytical Framework and Cross‐country Evidence

Abstract: In this study we address the issue of access to drinking water in rural areas related to agricultural productivity performance. Considering an agricultural household model as our basic conceptual framework, we analyze the theoretical aspects of increasing the access rate to drinking water on agricultural productivity. First, we show that the increased access rate to drinking water is conducive to agricultural productivity due to increased intrinsic productivity of individuals and additional gain in time for agricultural production. Second, it transpires that the constraints on the access to drinking water may be costly in terms of decreased productivity and well‐being of rural people. Furthermore, based on a sample of 27 African countries over the period 1990–2010, estimation results do not reject the assumption that increasing access to drinking water has a positive effect on rural productivity growth. This positive effect is reinforced by the presence of a better sanitation system, even after controlling for country‐specific effects and for the characteristics of rural areas.     

Food Demand Characteristics in Uganda: Estimation and Policy Relevance

Uganda was highly successful in reducing poverty over the past two decades but made little progress towards household food security. This underlines the need for designing food security interventions customised for household‐specific needs and behaviours. This study estimates Ugandan household demand behaviour with a focus on food consumption paying particular attention to household‐specific characteristics. The results show that preferences to increase calorie‐dense staple consumption, likely associated with food energy deficiency, extend far beyond the percentage of rural Ugandans officially deemed poor. Price elasticities indicate that poor rural households are largely well positioned to compensate staple price increases by substitution as long as they are not already concentrated on the cheapest foods. This flexibility applies less to urban households. The estimated demand elasticities generally vary widely between rural and urban households and depend on expenditure levels. Household‐specific characteristics have significant, sometimes pronounced, influences on demand, as do seasons and regions. The results reflect highly differentiated demand behaviour, which can be utilised to improve the design and evaluation of food security interventions.     

融资约束与中小企业出口

融资约束是中国企业尤其是中小企业发展普遍面临的问题,已经成为影响中小企业出口行为的重要因素。文章通过实证分析表明,融资约束的缓解可以显著促进中国的中小企业进入国际市场并进行出口,可以显著提高出口中小企业的海外销售额,并且在控制了内生性以后其结果依然显著。     

Demand for reinsurance： Evidence from Australian insurers

Reinsurance is widely recognised as important in insurer risk and capital management. This paper examines the factors that determine insurer demand for reinsurance using Australian data. The Australian situation is interesting because of the tax imputation system and the prudential regulations that were in force during the period of the study. As far as the authors are aware, this is the first paper to empirically analyse the demand for reinsurance in Australia. A panel-data set （1996-2001） is used, which provides 543 observations. The authors provide a careful approach to econometric diagnostic testing and the choice of the most appropriate panel-data model and the authors show how failure to do so may generate misleading results. Based on a robust estimation procedure, the authors find strong evidence of a positive relation between variables related to company size and the demand for reinsurance in Australia. The impact of leverage, taxes, and return on investments are not statistically significant.     

Access to credit and farmland rental market participation: Evidence from rural China

In this study, we analyze the impact of access to credit on farmland rental market participation of rural households. The study uses a nationally representative survey data of China Family Panel Studies and an endogenous switching probit model that accounts for selection bias for both observed and unobserved factors. Findings reveal that access to credit stimulates farmers' decisions to participate in farmland rental markets by increasing the likelihood of renting in and renting out farmland by about 10% and 20%, respectively. Results also reveal that the impact of access to credit on farmland rental market participation is heterogeneous when it comes to the age of the operator and and geographic locations of farmers. We show that younger credit users have a higher probability of renting in farmland, while their older counterparts have a higher probability of renting out farmland. Besides, credit users residing in central China have a higher probability of renting in farmland, while those living in eastern China have a higher likelihood of renting out farmland. Our findings highlight the importance of improving farmers' access to credit in facilitating the development of rural farmland rental markets.