中国财政政策降低不平等的效应分析:嵌入失业风险的视角

本文通过构建一个包含个体失业风险的Hank模型来分析财政政策降低不平等的影响路径与政策效果.研究发现:(1)由于储蓄规则和流动性约束作用,不平等的加剧会增加总储蓄率,不利于向以消费为主的经济结构转型;(2)降低收入所得税对减轻不平等的效果取决于其累进程度,降低比例税可降低不平等,增加一般性转移支付对改善不平等效果不显著...     

Roles of Income Polarization,Income Inequality and Ethnic Fractionalization in Social Conflicts: An Empirical Study of Indonesian Provinces, 2002–2012

Previous studies have cited inequality as a major factor relating to conflicts in Indonesia, while consideration of polarization and fractionalization as drivers of conflict is limited. The current paper examined the roles of three indices (polarization, inequality and fractionalization) in explaining the incidence of conflicts in Indonesian provinces over 2002–2012. This study used income (proxied by expenditure) differences to measure polarization and inequality, with subnational data as the unit of analysis. In addition, to complete the analysis, the present study used a variety of socioeconomic indicators as additional control variables. This paper verified that the high degrees of income polarization, ethnic fractionalization and income inequality are associated with the high probability of conflicts in Indonesian provinces. It also found that socioeconomic factors such as poverty, unemployment, population and natural resources, as well as some types of local government spending are significantly associated with conflicts.     

Trade Opening,Fiscal Reforms,Poverty, and Inequality: A CGE Analysis for Bangladesh

We assess the short‐ and long‐run impacts of tariff reform policies on Bangladeshi households' poverty and income distribution by developing an 86‐sector, four‐factor, and nine‐household‐group computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The main findings are that the complete removal of tariffs leads to a decrease in overall poverty with rich household groups in a relatively better position. In the short run poverty incidence increases for rural landless, urban illiterate, and low‐educated household groups whereas rural large farmer and urban medium household groups enjoy improvements in all poverty indicators. In terms of income distribution, trade liberalization enhances inequality slightly, but there is a tendency towards more equitable distribution in the long run. The choice of a fiscal compensatory mechanism with consumption tax is likely to play a negative role in terms of poverty and inequality in the short run; however, interestingly, the results are pro‐poor in the long run.     

Pollution mitigation,unemployment rate and wage inequality in the presence of agricultural pollution

This paper established a small open general equilibrium model to investigate the effects of the changes of consumers' unit private mitigation expenditure on the unemployment rate and the urban-rural wage inequality etc.. We found that (1) in the capital specific case, the increase of unit private mitigation expenditure will not only increase the urban unemployment rate but also expend the urban-rural wage inequality; (2) in the capital movable case, the conclusions are exactly opposite to that of the capital specific case. And under certain conditions, the increase of unit private mitigation expenditure may improve national income. According to the parameter calibration and numerical simulation results of the relevant macroeconomic data of China in 2017, we also found that (3) the effects of the changes of unit private mitigation expenditure on the urban unemployment rate is greater than that of the urban-rural wage inequality; (4) the influence degree of the changes of unit private mitigation expenditure on the unemployment rate in the capital movable case is greater than that of the capital specific case, but the influence degree of the change of unit private mitigation expenditure on the urban-rural wage inequality in the capital movable case is smaller than that of the capital specific case.     

Trickling Down the Rising Tide: New Estimates of the Link between Poverty and the Macroeconomy

This paper uses pooled time-series regressions of regional data to reexamine the link between poverty and the macroeconomy. The use of disaggregated data provides additional degrees of freedom and permits the inclusion of controls for demographic changes and increased income inequality. The results indicate a stronger relationship between poverty rates and the macroeconomy in the 1980s than that found in prior research and confirm that the dramatic reduction in unemployment during the late 1990s was instrumental in reducing poverty rates. The estimated results for the 1990s imply a 0.4-0.9% increase in the poverty rate for each 1% increase in the unemployment rate.     

The growth,poverty and inequality nexus in South Africa: Cointegration and causality analysis

This study empirically established the long-run relationship and causality effects that exist between growth, poverty and inequality. The analysis was carried out on a panel of nine South African provinces from 1995 to 2012. To capture poverty and inequality in a broader context, two measures of poverty (income and non-income) and three measures of inequality (income, education and land) were adopted for the study. The results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Notable results from the causality tests suggest that growth does not promote equal distribution of income in society but as income distribution begins to equalise, economic growth rises. This is regarded as growth–inequality disconnect. The unidirectional causality, which runs from income poverty to income inequality, suggests that a rising level of income poverty will lead to falling income inequality in the society; likewise, income inequality increases as non-income poverty declines.     

Community poverty and inequality in western China: A tale of three villages in Guizhou Province

Using a census survey of households in Guizhou Province, this paper examines the patterns of village poverty and inequality and their major correlates. The results show that poverty incidences vary greatly among villages and inequality is relatively high within villages in these impoverished areas. Although agriculture is still the major source of livelihood in this inland western region, income from local nonfarm jobs and remittance is more unevenly distributed and accounts for the largest share of overall income inequality. Surprisingly, blood donation is another major source of cash income. On the expenditure side, health care was found to be one of the most important sources of inequality. The paper also found that the distribution of assets, particularly land holdings, contributes to overall income inequality.     

Decomposing inequality and poverty in post-war Rwanda: The roles of gender,education, wealth and location

This paper provides an overview of poverty and inequality in post-war Rwanda. Rwanda is one of the poorest countries in the world, and has recently become one of the most unequal. High levels of poverty and inequality have important implications not only in terms of evaluations of social welfare, but also for management of social tensions and the propensity for violent conflict in the future. This paper uses the first two available and nationally representative rounds of household surveys –EICV1 2000 and EICV2 2005 – to decompose and identify the major ‘sources' of poverty and inequality in the country. I find stark differences in vulnerability to poverty by region, gender and widow status of the head of household. I additionally find important changes in the ‘income generating functions' of Rwandan households, and that distribution of land and financial assets are increasingly important in determining the inter-household distribution of income.     

Macroeconomic variables and income distribution: Conditional modelling with the generalised exponential

This paper presents a method of examining the effects of macroeconomic variables on the personal distribution of income over time. The approach involves modelling the complete distribution of income in each year using a flexible functional form from the generalised exponential family of distributions. The parameters of the distribution are specified as functions of the macroeconomic variables. It is shown how comparative static analyses, involving the modes and Atkinson inequality measures, can be performed. The method is applied to male New Zealand income distribution data for the period 1985–1994. The rate of unemployment is found to be the primary influence on the form of the distribution. Higher unemployment is found to decrease the modal income and increase the Atkinson inequality measure.     

The effects of unemployment and inflation on the income distribution: A regional view

VI. Summary and Conclusions The behavior of the U.S. income distribution over the business cycle has been the subject of several previous studies. However, a facet of these inquiries which has not been viewed is the geographical effects within the U.S. The diverse economic characteristics of the country have contributed to uneven inflationary and unemployment experiences among the respective regions during the national business cycles. The purpose of this study has been to model the regional income inequality responses to the distinct macroeconomic records for the years 1968–1976. One general consequence of this study is the conformation of earlier work suggesting that in some settings increases in the unemployment rate tend to increase the extent of income inequality and that inflation tends to reduce the extent of such inequality. Another result, however, has not been anticipated: namely, that regional inflation and unemployment had a waker impact on the income distribution the more unequal the distribution. For example, the weakest effects of the business cycle were observed for the South, and it was the Southern region which had the greatest income inequality. The North Central region, on the other hand, showed the greatest sensitivity to the business cycle, and it has the most equal income distribution.¹² Such geographical disaggregation seems important in understanding the varied implicit distributional effects within the U.S. when macroeconomic policy is aimed at reducing unemployment and inflation.     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

Inequality,poverty and prospects for redistribution

This paper demonstrates that poverty and inequality trends can diverge. It then discusses inequality trends and shows that, despite measurement issues, there is consensus that inequality is very high and has been rising over much of the post-transition period. Due to rising inequality within all groups, and particularly the black population, and lower inequality between race groups, within-group inequality has become the dominant form of inequality. That does not, however, detract from the fact that inequality between groups is still very large. High income inequality largely stems from inequality in access to wage income, due more to wage inequality than to unemployment. A Gini coefficient for wage income amongst the employed of above 0.60 effectively sets a floor to overall income inequality. The high wage premium to educated workers derives from a combination of a skills shortage at the top end of the educational spectrum, driving up their wages, and a surfeit of poorly-educated workers competing for scarce unskilled jobs dampening unskilled wages; if the unemployed were to find jobs, it would be in this bottom part of the wage distribution, and consequently this would not much reduce wage inequality. A continuation of the historical pattern whereby only a small segment of the population obtained good schooling would leave the structures underlying the large wage premium unaltered. The time frame for substantial inequality reduction is thus necessarily a long one, while poverty reduction efforts should not wait for this to occur.     

The long-term evolution of national income inequality and rural poverty in China

Using the five waves of the China Household Income Project surveys conducted during 1988–2013, we investigate long-term changes in national income inequality and rural poverty in China. National income inequality rose markedly to 2007 and thereafter fell slightly. Income growth was widely shared, but inequality increased because the high-income percentiles had faster income growth than lower percentiles and because the gap between urban and rural household incomes widened. The fall in income inequality after 2007 reflects faster income growth among low-income percentiles and the impacts of newly introduced redistributive policies. The paper also finds a considerable, ongoing poverty reduction in rural China. A poverty decomposition analysis indicates that this rural poverty reduction was mostly due to income growth rather than redistribution.     

Food Price Crisis,Poverty, and Inequality

This paper simulates how a doubling of food prices affects absolute poverty and the food‐price‐adjusted real income distribution. We assume unsubsidized world food prices in order to derive the cost of poverty deepening and poverty expansion. We also estimate the degree to which inequality increases if no measures are put in place to offset rising food prices. Both measures are vulnerability indicators useful for social policy planning. Our results show that low‐income countries experience dramatic increases in absolute poverty as a result of doubling food prices. Middle‐income countries experience the greatest decrease in absolute income, which contributes most to an increase in world income inequality. The paper estimates that the global dollar value of the absolute poverty gap ($1.25/day) has the potential to increase by 400%, with poverty deepening accounting for two thirds of the increase.     

The challenge of growth,employment and poverty in the South African economy since democracy: an exploratory review of selected issues

The welfare challenges in post‐apartheid South Africa are best represented by the triumvirate of poverty, income inequality and unemployment. In turn, the one generally accepted mechanism for overcoming these challenges is for an economy to realise sustained levels of high economic growth. Herein lie the essential coordinates of this article. We attempt first to describe the post‐apartheid experience with economic growth and its determinants. Secondly, we describe the nature of the welfare challenges that the society faces in terms of poverty, income inequality and unemployment. Finally, and perhaps most critically, we explore the various constraints on economic growth that may be hindering the realisation of higher standards of living amongst the population.     

Decomposition of the increase in earnings inequality in urban China: A distributional approach

This study examines changes in Chinese urban income distribution from 1987 to 1996 and 1996 to 2004 using nationwide household data and investigates the causes of these changes. The Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2007, 2009) method based on unconditional quantile regressions is used to decompose changes in income distribution and income inequality measures, such as variance and a 10:90 ratio. The decomposition results show that wage structure effects, such as a widening gender earnings gap, increases in returns to college education, and increases in earnings differentials between industries, company ownership types, and regions, have been the major contributors to the overall increases in income inequality. It was also found that at different points on the income distribution (e.g., the lower or upper half), the contributing factors that increase income inequality are different.     

Decomposing Poverty Changes in Zambia: Growth,Inequality and Population Dynamics

Abstract: During the 1990s, the Zambian economy underwent major structural adjustments. This paper presents an application of a recently proposed poverty decomposition that attributes changes in poverty to income growth, changes in inequality and population dynamics. Our results confirm earlier findings that the existence of a severe urban bias in the economy effectively shielded large parts of the rural population from the economic slump caused by the structural adjustments. In addition, we find that the exodus from urban centres that followed the adjustments contributed significantly to the increase in national poverty. The latter finding highlights the importance of considering population movements when studying poverty, especially in situations where policy changes affect migrant labour, as was the case for the Zambian copper industry.     

Towards a better measure of income inequality in Indonesia

Indonesia has experienced significant economic growth in recent years (on average, 5% in 2000–08), but many people are still living in poverty. Income inequality, as measured by the official Gini coefficient, has also increased. This paper evaluates household income and income inequality in Indonesia, assessing both market and non-market income to reach a more accurate measure of how actual income affects living standards. We find that if household income considers non-market income, income distribution is significantly more balanced, the coefficient of income inequality falls from 0.41 to 0.21 and the income share of the population's poorest deciles increases more than fivefold. The results suggest that market income alone is a misleading measure of income distribution in Indonesia.     

Human Resource Underutilization in an Era of Poverty Reduction: An Analysis of Unemployment and Underemployment in Ghana

Abstract: Unemployment is more prevalent in urban than rural Ghana, while underemployment is pervasive in rural Ghana. The paper analyses trends in these two forms of human resource underutilization and examines their major determinants. It is found that a positive association exists between the underemployment rate and the incidence of poverty in specific industries. The data supports the importance of demographics, education and firm sizes as major determinants of unemployment. Furthermore, these factors together with type of employment are the factors influencing underemployment. To reduce the level of unemployment and underemployment, the government should provide support for: (1) growth of private sector firms and informal sector activities; and (2) rural alternatives to agricultural activities. These implications are also relevant to other African countries trying to combat the twin problems of unemployment and underemployment.     

经济增长与收入分布对新疆城市居民贫困变动的影响

本文采用相对贫困线方法研究新疆城市居民2000年与2003年的贫困变化程度,利用FGT(Foster-Greer-Thorbecke)贫困指数分析了新疆城市居民的贫困率、贫困差距、贫困深度的变化,通过贫困指数FGT变化的分解分析,说明经济增长提高可支配收入有助于减少贫困,收入分布差距的减少也是减少贫困程度的重要因素之一。