再等等又何妨？

当一路疯长的房价在岁末年初终于有些脚步踉跄的时候，当深圳、广州甚至是上海、北京的房价都开始回落的时候，中国楼市“拐点论”，逐渐成为人们热议的话题。业内专家及有条件购房者开始纷纷猜测2008年将成为中国楼市的拐点。     

地产股，何去何从？

2010年3月,一份“房地产崩盘时间表”在网络和业界广泛流传,它以日本为例预测了中国楼市的未来。 时间表中,首先回顾了日本1985-1991年楼市的走势,大约经历了几个重要节点：1985年日元开始升值,1986年大量资金进入房地产,1987年日本房价飙升3倍,1988年房价下降、地王拉升房价,1991年房价再次下降、楼市崩盘。     

调控后的房地产市场将会怎样

如今,一、二线城市房价迅速上涨的阶段已经过去,未来两三年将高位盘整.而三、四线城市在承接了一定的溢出效应后,又将回到噩梦般的过去. 10月初,北京、天津、苏州、成都等城市先后发布楼市调控政策,主要措施是限购限贷.此次政策的导向很明确:稳定房价,确保市场不出现系统性风险,三、四线城市去库存的同时防止房价进一步狂涨.     

“地王”频现不是市场调控失效的信号

11月27日,北京、上海两地土地市场同时出现“地王”,楼面价均超过3万元／平方米。时隔仅3天,央企中冶置业56．2亿购地又成为今年全国总价地王;……临近年末,在商品房销售成交火爆的同时,北京、上海、广州、南京等多地频频出现“地王”,难道又是楼市市场调控失效的信号？     

楼市为何“变脸”

“房价真‘跳水’还是‘苦肉计’？”、“70城楼市数据冰冷 拐点初现”、“北京二手房价领跌全国”……近期,人们对楼市的讨论再次甚嚣尘上。     

关键是转变住房发展模式

“小康不小康,关键看住房。”住房作为民众生活的必需品,关系到千家万户的安居乐业,关系到社会财富的流向和社会公平的实现。所以住房问题既是经济问题,也是社会问题。近几年来,地产市场持续火爆,房价屡创新高,号称中国房地产市场“风向标”的北京、上海、广州、深圳,房价一路上涨。深圳特区内住宅均价破万,广州楼市出     

房地产调控，效果为何不佳？

2010年的房地产调控政策密集出台。 从2010年4月开始,以“国十条”为首的各项调控政策轮番出台,各地也纷纷推出“史无前例”的楼市新政。 但此后的房价并未出现松动,仅成交量出现了一定的减少,市场观望气氛浓厚。随后,沉寂了几个月的房地产市场突然放量,大中城市房价不降反升。     

限购松绑 难挽房市颓势

楼市“限购令”实施4年,一些城市迎来了平稳的量价与成交,一些城市则遭遇了不断上涨的存量和不断下滑的房价,可谓几城欢乐几城愁。继今年3月两会提出“分类调控”的房地产政策指导后,上月月底,又有消息称,住建部已经默许除北京、上海、广州、深圳以外的城市,自行调节限购政策。限购松绑终于可以摆上台面,不必再遮遮掩掩沦为“传言”。     

从美国楼市观察房产投资机遇

鉴古而知今,研究发达国家楼市史,有助于理解我国楼市。在长达120年的历史中,美国实际房价指数基本在100至130之间盘整,运行相当平稳,全国性的波动仅发生过两次:一是在一战前至二战结束(1914年至1945年),房地产市场总体疲弱,虽在20世纪20年代中期有过反弹,但未能形成整体性的复苏;二是2000年以来的房地产市场繁荣,不但涨幅惊人,而且首次呈现"繁荣——萧条"周期。     

“贷”租“涨”的关联——“两会”代表委员热议银行信贷是否影响房价上涨

自2004年以来，我国部分城市的房价进入了疯狂的飙升时代，以北京、上海、杭州为代表的大中型城市的房屋价格翻了几番，真可谓是“寸土寸金”。地产开发商看准了这些能“生钱”的地皮，房地产业迅猛的发展，一幢幢高楼拔地而起，而房价却成为了天方夜谭。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.