Debt Relief: Implications of Secondary Market Discounts and Debt Overhangs

An efficient rescheduling of the debt must take into accountthe market value of the debt. I argue here that the appropriateapproach is not to write down the debt to its value on the secondarymarket, but to scale the flows of payments on the debt. Thekey to an efficient rescheduling is to offer debt relief reflectingthe market discount, where the relief is contingent upon thecountry's adjustment effort (rather than setting repayment terms"once and for all" as in the Brady plan). I propose, as an example,that stabilization or adjustment programs under the aegis ofthe International Monetary Fund or the World Bank could includeprovisions allowing debt servicing or repurchase for a set durationat the secondary market rate. This would both reflect and provideincentives to increase a country's ability to repay.     

欧洲债务危机:起因、影响与展望

欧洲债务危机持续发酵,越来越多国家陷入泥淖。政府失职、过度举债、制度缺陷等问题的累积效应最终导致了危机的爆发,重创全球经济。危机国家无法凭借一己之力解决自身问题,周边国家、机构的援助方案与援助力度将在很大程度上决定危机的发展和救助进程。     

合伙制、激励机制与投资银行业创新路径探讨

本文从国际投资银行的产权结构比较入手,分析了各自的优缺点和变迁的原因.在分析我国券商现有产权结构的基础上,探讨了实行合伙制的可能性.本文认为,基于合伙制的投资银行激励机制的重构,不仅可以推动券商产权改革,还可以透过制度创新,实现投资银行专业化,重塑投资银行的使命和目标,化解券商风险,提高核心竞争力.     

Debt Relief and Economic Growth in Mexico

Could external restraint and internal balance in Mexico havebeen reconciled at levels of savings and investment that allowedsatisfactory growth in output without the 1989–90 restructuringof debt? What are the likely implications of Mexico's "Bradydeal" on economic growth? What are the macroeconomic effectsof debt-equity swaps? This article develops and estimates amodel to address these issues. The analysis concludes that the1989–90 agreement in Mexico will contribute materiallyto macroeconomic stability and the restoration of economic growth.     

基于私人部门债务通缩视角的欧债危机成因新解

2007年以来欧债危机的爆发有两大基础:一是上世纪七八十年代以来欧美金融市场的自由化、证券化,以及随之而来的银行加杠杆;二是1990年代以来,主要发达国家私人部门的负债水平迅速攀升.这两大变化是欧债危机的重要背景.以美国次贷危机为触发点,欧洲银行业爆发了流动性危机,私人部门随之发生了长周期的债务通缩.为了对抗通缩螺旋,政府通过救赎银行承担起了债务,进而导致主权债务危机浮出水面.因此,私人部门的债务通缩在这一演变过程中起到了关键作用且决定了危机的走向.     

Tobin's Q, Debt Overhang, and Investment

Incorporating debt in a dynamic real options framework, we show that underinvestment stems from truncation of equity's horizon at default. Debt overhang distorts both the level and composition of investment, with underinvestment being more severe for long‐lived assets. An empirical proxy for the shadow price of capital to equity is derived. Use of this proxy yields a structural test for debt overhang and its mitigation through issuance of additional secured debt. Using measurement error‐consistent GMM estimators, we find a statistically significant debt overhang effect regardless of firms' ability to issue additional secured debt.     

税收优惠、调整成本与R&D投资

借助税收优惠刺激企业研发,已成为世界各国政府解决R&D"市场失灵"的重要手段。然而,税收优惠究竟能否激励企业R&D投资,国内外研究尚存争议。本文在考虑R&D调整成本情况下,对中国R&D税收优惠的激励效应问题进行了实证检验。研究发现,税收优惠有助于刺激企业研发,但这一激励效应随着调整成本的增加而逐渐减弱,当单位资本的调整成本超过临界值0.012时,税收优惠对R&D投资的激励效应不复存在,目前有近93%公司的调整成本低于这一临界值,意味着中国现行R&D税收优惠政策总体而言是存在激励效应的。进一步研究发现,这种激励效应在非国有企业中更为显著。     

Crisis Transmission: Evidence from the Debt, Tequila, and Asian Flu Crises

This article analyzes how external crises spread across countries.The authors analyze the behavior of four alternative crisisindicators in a sample of 20 countries during three well-knowncrises: the 1982 debt crisis, the 1994 Mexican crisis, and the1997 Asian crisis. The objective is twofold: to revisit thetransmission channels of crises, and to analyze whether capitalcontrols, exchange rate flexibility, and debt maturity structureaffect the extent of contagion. The results indicate that thereis a strong neighborhood effect. Trade links and similarityin precrisis growth also explain (to a lesser extent) whichcountries suffer more contagion. Both debt composition and exchangerate flexibility to some extent limit contagion, whereas capitalcontrols do not appear to curb it.     

Land Tenure, Investment Incentives, and the Choice of Techniques: Evidence from Nicaragua

The choice of cultivation techniques is a key determinant ofagricultural productivity and has important consequences forincome growth and poverty reduction in developing countries.Household data from Nicaragua are used to show that the choiceof cultivation technique depends on farmers' tenure status evenwhen techniques are observable and contractible. In particular,tree crops are less likely to be grown on rented than on owner-cultivatedplots. Further evidence indicates that the result follows fromlandlords' inability or unwillingness to commit to long-termtenancy contracts rather than from agency costs due to riskaversion or limited liability.     

欧债危机是一场半真半假的危机

如果说美国的金融危机是一个真实的危机,那么,欧洲目前的主权债务危机一半是真的,一半是假的。而这场危机闹到这么严重的程度,     

Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis

We present a DSGE model where firms optimally choose among alternative instruments of external finance. The model is used to explain the evolving composition of corporate debt during the financial crisis of 2008–09, namely, the observed shift from bank finance to bond finance, at a time when the cost of market debt rose above the cost of bank loans. We show that the flexibility offered by banks on the terms of their loans and firms' ability to substitute among alternative instruments of debt finance are important to shield the economy from adverse real effects of a financial crisis.     

Presidential Address: Debt and Money: Financial Constraints and Sovereign Finance

Economic analyses of corporate finance, money, and sovereign debt are largely considered separately. I introduce a novel corporate finance framing of sovereign finance based on the analogy between fiat liabilities for sovereigns and equity for corporations. The analysis focuses on financial constraints at the country level, making explicit the trade‐offs involved in relying on domestic versus foreign‐currency debt to finance investments or government expenditures. This framing provides new insights into issues ranging from the costs and benefits of inflation, optimal foreign exchange reserves, and sovereign debt restructuring.     

Rating Agency Reputation,the Global Financial Crisis,and the Cost of Debt

Why do foreign firms obtain credit ratings by global rating agencies rather than from their home country's rating agencies even though global raters typically assign lower credit ratings when these foreign firms issue bonds in their home currencies? We find that bonds rated by a global agency decreased yields 11‐14 basis points (bps) when compared to those rated by Japanese rating agencies but, during the 2007‐2009 financial crisis, the yields on these Japanese bonds increased 12‐17 bps, thus fully negating the advantage of obtaining a bond rating from a global rater. This suggests that the reputation of global rating agencies declined during the 2007‐2009 crisis period.     

欧债危机重燃的背后

2010年12月21日,国务院副总理王岐山在第三次中欧经贸高层对话上表示：＂中国支持欧盟和国际货币基金组织采取的一揽子金融稳定措施,并将以实际行动帮助欧盟一些国家应对主权债务危机。这表明,不断加强互利共赢的中欧经济合作符合中国和欧盟的根本利益。＂     

欧债危机以及对中国的影响

中国经历过好几轮GDP增长降到5％～7％的阶段,也没有出现重大的社会动荡,因此,没有必要把GDP保8与社会稳定划等号     

对近期我国能否发生债务危机的定量分析

为实施积极财政政策而迅速膨胀的国债规模，引发了社会各界对财政风险和债务危机的广泛关注。根据国内外的理论与实践，定量分析我国财政的举措能力和应债主体的承受能力，我国到2010年以前不会发生债务危机。     

The Opportunities, Risks and Suggestions for Overseas Direct Investment of Chinese Enterprises Based on the Background of Global Sovereign Debt Crisis

2008年金融危机以来,欧美等发达国家主权债务危机接连爆发。危机的发生带来跨国公司在全球范围内对生产经营的调整,从而影响全球资本流动,也给我国企业拓展海外投资带来了机遇和风险并存的外部环境。本文从境外直接投资角度,分析主权债务危机给中国企业境外投资带来的机遇和风险,并对我国企业在主权债务危机背景下开展境外直接投资活动提出了相关建议。     

资产泡沫、银行业流动性危机与政府债务风险

目前,政府债务风险问题已引起各方的关注。2010年,金融危机对全球经济及金融市场的影响尚未真正消失,从阿联酋到希腊,从希腊扩至欧元区,从英国到美国,欧美核心发达经济体出现巨额财政赤字,对经济复苏产生巨大冲击。而爱尔兰债务危机     

欧债危机:原因与影响

具有雄心勃勃欧洲建设计划的欧盟目前遇到了欧债危机这样的大坎儿,乃至欧元能否维系都遇到了挑战。那么,欧债危机何以发展到今天的程度?原因多多!请看本栏目文章《欧债危机:黑云压城城欲摧》。在全球化的今天,一方有危机,八方都会不同程度地受到影响。欧债危机虽然对中国直接冲击不大,但间接影响明显,欧债危机主要通过贸易途径、金融途径、非接触性传导等途径影响中国经济,请看本栏目文章《欧债危机影响中国经     

欧债危机：原因与影响——欧债危机：黑云压城城欲摧

具有雄心勃勃欧洲建设计划的欧盟目前遇到了欧债危机这样的大坎儿,乃至欧元能否维系都遇到了挑战。那么,欧债危机何以发展到今天的程度？原因多多!请看本栏目文章《欧债危机：黑云压城城欲摧》。