Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Technological innovation and market turbulence: The dot-com experience

This paper explains market turbulence, such as the recent dot-com boom/bust cycle, as equilibrium industry dynamics driven by the synergy between new and existing technologies. When a major technological innovation arrives, a wave of new firms implement the innovation and enter the market. However, if the innovation complements existing technology, some new entrants later will be forced out as more and more incumbent firms succeed in adopting the innovation. It is argued that the diffusion of Internet technology among traditional brick-and-mortar firms was indeed the driving force behind the rise and fall of dot-coms as well as the sustained growth of e-commerce. Systematic empirical evidence from retail and banking industries supports the theoretical findings.     

产业共性技术扩散三阶段模型构建与仿真研究

结合产业共性技术相关理论与技术扩散模型，以政府作用为调节变量，构建产业共性技术扩散的三阶段仿真模型，对产业共性技术扩散三阶段演化特征进行探讨，借助Matlab平台对主体采纳行为和共性技术扩散速度进行仿真，并以我国新能源汽车产业共性技术扩散为例对仿真结果进行实证检验。研究结果表明：产业共性技术扩散先后经历了权威决策、二次创新以及附随扩散3个阶段;产业共性技术扩散的企业采纳比例遵循“S”型曲线规律，而产业共性技术扩散速度出现了“上升-下降-再上升”的“N”型走势;直接采纳二次研发成果的企业，对产业共性技术扩散影响较大;政府在整个产业共性技术扩散过程中发挥关键作用，但在扩散不同阶段政府介入方式与程度会有所差异;二次创新投入比例与成功率影响产业共性技术扩散规模和速度;只有将产业共性技术转化成专有技术或新产品，才能实现共性技术有效扩散。     

International diffusion of steel technologies: Time-lag and the speed of diffusion

The article deals with the diffusion of two major innovations in the world's steel industry, the oxygen steel process and continuous casting. Twenty-one countries, including the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, are analyzed from the point of view of their ability to adopt technology from pioneering countries. Among capitalist countries, Great Britain and the United States appear to be slower than others. Eastern European countries and the Soviet Union as a group show a lower ability to adopt technologies than capitalist countries, even the slowest ones. G. Ray's hypothesis that countries that are late-comers in adopting a particular technology benefit from that and are faster in spreading it over their industry is challenged. The correlation analysis shows that at least in one case, the oxygen steel process, the late-comers are not faster in diffusion than countries that were first in introducing new technology. It is concluded from empirical findings that late-comers may not be faster in diffusion if there is a lack of good communication (the Eastern European countries case) or when the technology in question is relatively simple and benefits from being late are insignificant (the case of oxygen steel process).     

IS NORTH‐SOUTH TRADE‐RELATED TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION REGIONAL?

There is an influential literature on trade-related technology diffusion. This article contributes to that literature by investigating whether north-south trade-related technology diffusion has a regional dimension. To do so, we build a weighted foreign research and development index at the industry level to account for international and interindustry technology spillovers. Using parallel analysis for nine developing countries, we find: (1) north-south trade-related technology diffusion is strong and significant and (2) north-south technology diffusion tends to have a regional dimension: developing countries in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East tend to benefit, respectively, more from trade with Japan, North America, and Europe than from trade with other northern regions. ( JEL F1, F15)     

制造业产业升级视角下低碳技术创新机制研究

以低碳技术创新促进制造业产业升级是我国减少碳排放、应对全球气候变暖及产业结构升级的客观需要。在对低碳技术创新机制进行分析时,将其分为动力机制、技术主体选择机制、扩散机制、倒逼机制和保障机制,以此为基础构建了制造业产业升级低碳技术创新机制模型,并以黑龙江省装备制造业为例,运用协同理论对其运行效果进行实证分析。结果表明：目前制造业产业升级低碳技术创新仍然处于被动发展阶段;从短期看,倒逼机制和扩散机制的作用最显著;从长期看,主体选择机制作用的发挥更有利于创新机制良好、持续地运行;在变被动为主动的过程中,政府宏观调控发挥了重要作用。     

中国国防工业全要素生产率测算与分析

利用2004—2020年中国11大军工集团财务报表数据,从企业微观角度出发,运用LP方法计算国防工业全要素生产率并分析其变化趋势。结果表明,样本期内,我国国防工业全要素生产率总体呈波动上升趋势,其增长率高于制造业整体水平但低于高技术产业增速,说明国防工业技术进步比较明显,但进步速率还不够高;各细分军工行业全要素生产率存在较大差异,电子工业和船舶工业全要素生产率均值比其它军工行业高。收敛性分析表明,国防工业中,全要素生产率较低企业对较高企业具有追赶效应。建议军工行业必须转变增长方式,向集约型发展方式转变,提高发展质量;加大研发投入力度,重点扶持技术发展相对缓慢的行业,促进军工行业协调发展;贯彻军民融合发展战略,促进先进民用技术转军用。     

Technology diffusion and environmental regulation: the adoption of natural gas-fired combined cycle generating units

Even though environmental policy can affect the path of technology diffusion, the economics literature contains limited empirical evidence of this relationship. This paper provides insight into the technology adoption decisions of electric generating firms. Specifically, the diffusion of combined cycle (CC) generating units is examined. This technology is ‘environmentally friendly’ in that, it is cleaner and more efficient than alternative generating units. The empirical model explores the decision to adopt a CC generating unit and the extent to which the technology is adopted in response to environmental regulations imposed on producers. Zero-inflated models are used to evaluate adoption decisions at the plant-level as well as the firm-level. This research shows that environmental regulation has a significant effect on technology choice and the extent of adoption in this industry. Findings suggest that the stringency of regulations that control the building of new generating units is particularly influential for established power plants.     

Nonconvexity,efficiency and equilibrium in exhaustible resource depletion

We consider the problem of efficiency and existence of a competitive equilibrium in exhaustible resource markets where extraction costs are nonconvex. Nonconvexity is shown to imply that (1) (efficient) extraction ceases to the left of the minimum efficient scale, i.e., where average costs exceed marginal costs; and (2) a competitive equilibrium does not exist. Introduction of a backstop technology (which induces a flat portion of the industry demand curve) restores both existence and efficiency, provided that the backstop price is sufficiently low. If firms face even a small amount of uncertainty regarding their rivals' stocks, a backstop technology is sufficient to restore existence of competitive equilibrium, even if the backstop price is very high. In this case, however, the competitive equilibrium is not efficient.     

加强林业技术发展的研究

林业建设的长期实践表明，林业的发展越来越依赖林业技术的进步。本文从宏观、中观和微观各层面分析了林业技术发展对林业发展的重大意义，并在此基础上进一步分析了当前我国林业技术发展的现状——林业技术既取得了巨大发展．但同时又存在很多不足，如林业技术成果转化事低、技术推广效益低、高新技术水平落后于发达国家等。此外．本文还分析了制约林业技术发展的因素：林业技术意识薄弱、投入不足、推广效益低下、自主创新和引进消化吸收能力弱等，并提出了进一步发展我国林业技术的对策。     

Industry equilibrium with outside financing and moral hazard: Implications for market integration

In this paper, we study industry equilibrium under the assumptions that (1) firms need outside financing and (2) they have a moral hazard problem in taking potentially excessive risks. We characterize an industry equilibrium with credit rationing, where firms choose not to take risks, and compare this to the industry equilibrium in the absence of credit rationing. In both cases, we show that competition increases and prices decline as markets integrate. However, in markets with credit rationing there is typically more exit, a smaller decline in prices and, most strikingly, the market value of the industry increases rather than decreases.     

The Strategic Effects of Batch Processing

We study a duopoly game in which firms commit to a batch technology before competing in sales quantities. Adopting a batch technology requires the quantity produced to equal an integer number of batches and allows sales to be less than production. When larger batch sizes lower unit production costs (as in the U.S. airline industry with its economies of density), subgame perfect equilibrium sales quantities are unique and more competitive than the Cournot equilibrium quantities of a one‐shot game with continuous total cost functions. When larger batch sizes yield higher unit costs, equilibrium production can exceed equilibrium sales.     

Technology Diffusion with Market Power in the Upstream Industry

This paper compares taxes and tradable permits when used to regulate a competitive and polluting downstream industry that can purchase an abatement technology from a monopolistic upstream industry. Second-best policies are derived for the full range of the abatement technology’s emission intensities and marginal abatement costs. The second-best permit quantity can be both above or below the socially optimal emission level. Explicit consideration of the output market provides further insights on how market power distorts the allocation in the downstream industry. The ranking between permits and taxes is ambiguous in general, but taxes weakly dominate permits if full diffusion is socially optimal. In addition, it is analysed how a cap on the permit price affects the diffusion of an abatement technology.     

Factors Determining the Adoption of Energy-Saving Technologies in Swiss Firms: An Analysis Based on Micro Data

This study investigates the factors that determine firms’ decisions to adopt energysaving technologies. We distinguish between the decisions of whether or not to use a technology (“inter-firm diffusion”), and of how intensely to use a technology (“intra-firm diffusion”). The empirical model used accommodates several effects that have been postulated in the theoretical diffusion literature: firm and industry heterogeneity, strategic considerations and external effects. Data for 2,324 Swiss firms for the year 2008 is used, with separate information for four categories of energy-saving technology applications (electromechanical and electronic, motor vehicles and traffic engineering, construction, power-generating processes). The results reveal significant differences with respect to firm characteristics and adoption barriers between inter-firm and intrafirm diffusion. In practically all cases, positive net external effects of adoption can be found. Inducement effects, particularly those traced back to intrinsic motivations for environment-friendly technologies, show clearly positive effects on adoption behavior.     

Mapping technological development using patent citation trees: an analysis of bogie technology

We create a generational patent citation tree to reveal the development of bogie technology in the high-speed rail industry. We cull the information in patent citations to reveal the generational development of bogie technology by analysing patent titles, patent publication dates and patent-granting regions. We then measure the development of bogie technology by calculating its technological development on-orbit rate and by mapping the stages of technological development and its regional diffusion. The results show that bogie technologies are in a period of sustained growth and this period of sustained growth will remain. Technological development is accelerating and this acceleration will persist, although the global dispersion of technology lags behind in scope and speed.     

Research on mechanism of technological diffusion in industry cluster

The main aim of the paper is to explain the reason and mechanism of technological diffusion in industry cluster. Following the idea showed in Zhou Qin＇s model, we further develop the theoretical analysis that how the technological gap between strong enterprises and weak enterprises determines the level and speed of technological diffusion. The bigger the technological disparity between strong enterprise and weak enterprise is, the quicker technology spreads and knowledge overflows; on the contrary, the smaller the technological disparity between strong enterprise and weak enterprise is, the slower technology spread and knowledge overflows. Therefore, this kind of mechanism is helpful for enterprises in an industry cluster to learn from each other and to enable each enterprise close to the ＂the average level＂ of technology or knowledge. As a result, we think that, there exists a close relation between technological gap and technological diffusion. The paper puts forward the way of knowledge overflows of the strong enterprises： imitationdemonstration effect, the longitudinal connection in the industrial chain, the labor force flow and transfer, informal exchange.     

后疫情时代中国智能驾驶创新扩散特征研究——基于创新扩散理论深度调研

基于罗杰斯创新扩散理论,采用立意抽样法,对涵盖智能驾驶创新扩散源、潜在受用群体的25家典型机构中的95名受访者进行深度调研,结合资料分析、现场观察等质性研究法,勾勒中国智能驾驶创新扩散实践经历新冠肺炎疫情前后呈现的不同创新属性扩散模式特征。结果发现：①新冠肺炎疫情虽然在一定程度上消解了L1—L5级智能驾驶创新扩散源与政府及限定场景潜在受用群体创新属性之间的矛盾,却将新矛盾聚焦于非专业人士教育培训与操作易用性诉求上;②新冠肺炎疫情加快了政府及限定场景潜在受用群体对智能驾驶创新的认知进程,使得智能驾驶创新劝服与决策过程直接进入实施阶段;③智能驾驶创新采纳者钟形曲线分布发生偏移,原先属于落后者、晚期大多数类别的潜在受用群体不断向早期大多数类别身份转换。最终,提出积极寻求疫情与复工场景应用机会、定向开发并拓展产品线、加速技术迭代与升级等应急举措,以面对突发性公共危机时能够继续维系有效的扩散实践。     

产业共性技术政府支持性研究

基于产业共性技术的公共品特性,政府理应在推动产业共性技术发展中发挥积极作用,这对于加速产业结构升级及创新型国家建设具有重要意义。为了加强政府对产业共性技术发展的支持力度,更好地推动共性技术的创新发展,我国应强化顶层设计,加强产业共性技术创新发展战略规划;完善产业共性技术平台建设,优化共性技术的扩散机制;健全技术经济政策;支持产业共性技术的研发;扩散和应用     

Existence of equilibrium in an overlapping-generations model with government debt

The Diamond overlapping generations (OLG) model with government debt has been widely utilized in economics, but the existence of the steady-state equilibrium is either assumed or illustrated numerically. This paper provides easily checkable conditions for the existence and uniqueness of steady-state equilibrium in this model. By checking the first derivatives of the production and utility functions and their interactions, we can determine whether the model has a nontrivial equilibrium or not. We show that the level of government debt, production technology, individual preference, and the growth rate are important for the existence of equilibrium. If government debt exceeds a certain level, equilibrium will not exist. Given technology, preference, and the growth rate, the upper-bounds of the government debt-output ratio in equilibrium can be determined based on our results.     

服务业增长与创新的因果关系研究——基于天津的数据

本文利用1978—2006年天津市的时间序列数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验以及误差修正模型等现代计量经济学方法和工具,以天津市为例,对服务业创新与服务业增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:天津市服务业发展水平与服务业制度、技术创新之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且服务业制度和技术的创新与服务业发展水平具有单向因果关系。