基于投影模型的不确定语言型多属性决策方法及应用

研究了不确定语言型多属性决策评价结果与决策者对方案的偏好信息之间存在偏差的问题,提出了基于投影模型的不确定多属性决策方法。该方法通过建立与区间型语言标度对应的术语指标矩阵,及方案综合属性值与决策者主观偏好值之间的投影模型,确定属性的权重,然后运用加权法得到方案的综合属性值,利用已有的可能度矩阵排序公式得到决策方案的排序。最后,通过算例对该方法的实用性和有效性进行了说明。     

基于不确定运输时间的军械紧急调运模型研究

针对运输时间不确定的军械紧急调运问题，将运输时间处理为模糊随机变量，建立在任务时间限制期下的最大可能性路径选择模型以确定调运路径。而后，引入超期风险概念，建立以超期风险最小为首要优化目标的军械紧急调运多层觇划模型，实现了对调运方案的优选。最后，给出一个具体军械调运实例来验证模型的适用性。     

基于不确定语言的TOPSIS方法的人才选拔研究

人才选拔是现在企业成功与否的一个重要因素,因此对此进行研究具有重要意义。本文拟将不确定语言引入到人才选拔研究中,以提高人才选拔过程中的效率和效果。针对准则权重完全且准则值值为不确定语言的人才选拔问题,提出了一种基于TOPSIS的方法。该方法首先确定正负理想方案,再求解各方案到正负理想方案的距离,然后通过计算各方案到正理想方案的贴近度来确定方案的排序。最后将本方法运用于人才选拔的研究,研究结果说明了本文方法的有效性和实用性。     

基于区间数向量投影的主要防御方向选择

一种基于区间数向量投影的主要防御方向选择方法。针对评价指标属性和权重的区间数,构造正理想方案,计算各方案在正理想方案的投影值,根据投影值完成方案的排序优选。实例分析验证了其有效性和适用性。     

基于模糊综合评判法的航材紧急调运需求度确定方法研究

分析了紧急情况下航材应急需求的特点,提出了航材紧急调运中需求度的概念,建立了航材紧急调运应急需求度的评价指标体系,并利用模糊综合评判法确定航材紧急调运需求度评价模型和算法.最后通过实例予以了说明.     

Excel在物资调运问题中的应用

最近几年，我国的物流产业快速发展，形成了“物流热”。在物流作业的管理活动中，有着大量的规划问题，物资的合理调运就是其中一个比较重要的问题。确定最优物资调运方案的目标就是要以最低的运输总成本来完成确定的物资调运任务。     

基于Vague相似度量的钢结构施工方案评价

本文描述了vague之间的相似度量与加权相似度量方法,以及钢结构施工方案评价新方法。在钢结构施工方案评价中,vague之间的相似度量是评价钢结构施工方案接近期望方案(理想方案)的测度,相似度量值越大,钢结构施工方案接近期望方案越好。通过实例阐明vague之间的相似度量在钢结构施工质量评价中的应用是可行的。     

一种基于梯形模糊中心的不确定多属性决策Topsis方法

文章针对只有部分属性权重信息且属性值以梯形模糊数形式给出的模糊多属性决策问题,提出一种基于梯形模糊数的中心的多属性决策方法。该方法建立一个非线性规划模型,通过求解该模型得到属性的权重向量。然后根据传统的Topsis方法,计算各方案属性值加权后的模糊中心与正负理想中心的贴近度的大小进行排序择优,最后给出算例。     

多属性决策方法及其在节能减排中的应用研究

通过对直觉模糊数的区间化处理,把直觉模糊多属性决策转化为属性值为区间数的多属性决策.基于决策者的主观偏好值和客观偏好值的总偏差最小化原则得到属性权重,从而给出了一种直觉模糊多属性决策方法.最后利用所提出的方法对企业的节能减排效果进行了评价研究.     

时间权重为区间值的时序多指标决策TOPSIS法

通过引入时间因素，将对基于区间值的多指标决策问题的研究从静态领域拓展到动态领域，本文把时间权重取为区间值模糊数，更符合评价实际。在此基础上，补充了固定性和区间性指标的标准化公式，定义了时间权重取区间值的时序条件下多指标决策的正理想方案和负理想方案，并运用线性规划方法给出了这种条件下该问题的TOPSIS[Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution]法。至此，本文解决了指标取值、指标权重和时间权重可以全部为区间值模糊数的多指标决策问题。运用该方法分析了一个实际问题。     

Intermodal competition in the London-Paris passenger market: High-Speed Rail and air transport

This paper studies inter- and intramodal competition in the London-Paris passenger market during the period 2003-2009. We identify the degree to and conditions under which High-Speed Rail is a viable substitute for airline travel. Using pooled cross-sectional data we estimate multinomial and mixed logit models to examine actual travel behaviour. Our model allows us to analyse the reaction of passenger behaviour on the withdrawal of aviation alternatives and the completion of the High-Speed Rail link between the two cities in November 2007. The results show that travel time and frequency are the main determinants of travel behaviour. The valuation of total travel times changes over the years following the opening of the High-Speed Rail link. Furthermore, we show that the direct elasticity of market share with respect to frequency for a number of aviation alternatives is above 1, indicating that these alternatives are not able to maximise profits. These alternatives subsequently left the market in our sample period. For the remaining aviation alternatives, except for easyJet, we find elasticities of market share with respect to frequency close to 1. Therefore, we conjecture that competition in this market will decline in the long run.     

Fuzzy grey relation method for multiple criteria decision-making problems

Combining the concepts of fuzzy set theory, entropy, ideal, and grey relation analysis, a fuzzy grey relation method for multiple criteria decision-making problems is proposed. First, triangular fuzzy numbers and linguistic values characterized by triangular fuzzy numbers are used to evaluate the importance weights of all criteria and the superiority of all alternatives versus various criteria above the alternative level. Then, the concept of entropy is utilized to solve the adjusted integration weight of all objective criteria above the alternative level. Furthermore, using the concepts of ideal, the grey ration grades of various alternatives versus ideal solution are ranked to determine the best alternative. Finally, a numerical example of selecting most appropriate company to build a new highway is used to demonstrate the applicability of proposed method. The study results show that this method is an effective means for tackling MCDM problems in fuzzy and grey environments.     

Generalized runs tests for the IID hypothesis

We provide a family of tests for the IID hypothesis based on generalized runs, powerful against unspecified alternatives, providing a useful complement to tests designed for specific alternatives, such as serial correlation, GARCH, or structural breaks. Our tests have appealing computational simplicity in that they do not require kernel density estimation, with the associated challenge of bandwidth selection. Simulations show levels close to nominal asymptotic levels. Our tests have power against both dependent and heterogeneous alternatives, as both theory and simulations demonstrate.     

Assessment of CSR based supply chain performance system using an integrated fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS approach

The objective of this research was to identify Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) criteria as well as propose and prioritise the alternatives to improve the supply chain performance system of an organisation. To meet the objective, firstly, CSR-based criteria, sub-criteria and alternatives were identified based on the literature review and discussion with the field experts, taken from automobile industries located at the Delhi region of India. Then, kappa statistics has been applied to check the internal consistency between identified criteria and sub-criteria. After finding the evidence of internal consistency, a hierarchical-type model has been developed and analysed using a multi-criteria decision-making as an integrated fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and a fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) approach. To make the results more robust and feasible, a sensitivity analysis has also been performed.     

Fractional integration and mean reversion in stock prices

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is frequently tested by measuring the degree of mean reversion in stock prices, since highly predictable changes might indicate that investors are not fully rational. Existing studies often rely on statistical tests which impose too restrictive assumptions on the time series behavior of the series of interest, and have very low power. This paper uses a test for unit roots and other nonstationary (and stationary) hypotheses—recently developed by Robinson (1994)—which allows for fractional alternatives and outperforms rival statistics. Its application to U.S. real stock returns suggests that there is no permanent component in stock prices, since the series examined is close to being I(0). The key question then becomes whether there exists an autocorrelated structure, which would imply that the series is perfectly predictable, and hence that the market might not be efficient.     

Coincidence of Agreement between Probabilistic and Algebraic Choosers

Algebraic choosers make precise responses to pairwise preference comparisons on alternatives that are based on the relative rankings of the alternatives over some set of n attributes of comparison. Probabilistic choosers are less precise than algebraic choosers are, and they give pairwise preference responses that have some probability of being in agreement with the response of an algebraic chooser. The magnitude of this probability reflects the degree of discriminatory power of the probabilistic chooser. The current study significantly expands earlier work on the probability that algebraic and probabilistic choosers will select the same maximal alternative. Three factors are found to have an impact on this coincidence probability: the number of attributes of comparison that are being considered, the discriminatory power of probabilistic choosers, and the degree of dependence between attribute rankings. A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the European Operational Research Society Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, July 2000. Support for that initial work was received from the Center for International Programs at the University of Delaware.     

制造业与物流业联动发展内涵与理想模式研究

从产业角度建立了以耦合度、互动性和匹配度为维度的制造业—物流业联动发展模式,并分析了耦合度、互动性和匹配度的内涵和评价方法,提出了制造业与物流业联动发展的理想模式,即"产业耦合度中等,产业互动关系为主动-主动,产业匹配度高"。     

The Heterodox Economics of "The Most Orthodox of Orthodox Economists"

A bstract The prevailing view of Frank Knight is that he was a defender of neoclassical economics and the free market system While this view has validity, it tends to obscure the presence of significant heterodox elements in his thought Knight was, in fact, one of the most perceptive critics of economic orthodoxy and the market system The question thus arises as to how Knight could combine advocacy and criticism of the market system Knight reconciled the two by separating questions of policy from the evaluation of ideals. Thus while his criticism of the market system proceeded on the basis of regarding it as ideal, in contrast his judgments on policy were based upon comparisons of the available alternatives. Knight found the alternatives to the imperfect market order even less appealing     

Further explanations for context effects: a perspective of ideal and reference points

Context effects have recently become the one of the main areas of study for understanding consumer choice behavior because they violate two well-known principals: independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) and regularity. Four context effects, namely, the attraction, compromise, attribute-balance, and phantom effects are highlighted and (re)explained in this paper. Although several studies have developed choice models that account for a specific context effects, little attention has been given to a general framework to explain context effects within an integrated concept. In this study, the concept of ideal and reference points is proposed to achieve that purpose.     

‘Market failure’ arguments are a poor guide to policy

‘Market failure’ is frequently offered as a justification for government intervention in the economy. Proponents of interventions can point to almost limitless examples of markets which do not meet all the criteria for Pareto optimality and argue that government taxation, subsidies or regulation can perfect them, maximising social welfare. But comparing market outcomes with an unattainable and unidentifiable ideal is not useful in a world of imperfect knowledge and government failure. It is better to compare market outcomes against realistic alternatives. Furthermore, even within the market failure paradigm, concepts such as ‘public goods’ and ‘negative externalities’ are routinely misunderstood and inconsistently applied. This leads to predictably poor policy outcomes.