A comparison of contingent valuation method and random utility model estimates of the value of avoiding reductions in king mackerel bag limits

This paper estimates the value of king mackerel bag limit changes with both stated and revealed preference methods. The 1997 Marine Recreational Fishery Statistical Survey allows estimation of the value of avoiding bag limit reductions with the random utility model and the contingent valuation method. Using the contingent valuation method, the willingness to pay to avoid a one fish reduction in the bag limit is $2.45 per year. Using the random utility model, the willingness to pay to avoid a one fish reduction in the bag limit is $2.24 per trip and $7.71 for a two-month time period. Considering several methodological issues, the difference in willingness to pay between the stated and revealed preference methods is in the expected direction.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASPECTS OF PETROLEUM AND MILITARY SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF

Geologic estimates of remaining global petroleum resources place about 50% in the Persian Gulf. Production costs are estimated at $5 per barrel there and $15 per barrel in the North Sea and Alaska. According to mathematical results derived from depletion theory, the present value of economic rent from oil is on the order of $20 trillion. This article uses game theory to explain the $15–$20 per barrel price band that existed from 1986 to 1999. New economic forces have displaced this previously stable pattern; a new price range of $23–$30 is emerging. International trade in petroleum and conventional weapons are analyzed with econometric methods; the occurrence of nuclear weapons capability in the Persian Gulf region is explored.     

A new valuation question: analysis of and insights from interval open-ended data in contingent valuation

This paper introduces a type of open-ended valuation question where respondents state their willingness to pay in the form of an interval rather than a point estimate. Allowing the response to be expressed as an interval has advantages compared to traditional valuation questions: it captures potential valuation uncertainty, facilitates interpretation of uncertainty and most importantly, provides a richer set of information about individuals’ preferences. Furthermore, an open-ended willingness to pay format has advantages if a survey is carried out in more than one country. Too little is known about valuation uncertainty to represent willingness to pay only as an exact value. Therefore, this value should be complemented by upper and lower boundary estimates. In this paper I present new methods for estimating these different values. The methods are illustrated with results from a survey concerning wild salmon in the Vindel River, northern Sweden. The results suggest that the upper and lower boundaries provide a kind of confidence interval for the willingness to pay, which is encouraging for estimating these values to characterise willingness to pay. The results also illustrate that some earlier criticism in the literature of open-ended questions does not apply to the question presented in this paper.     

Willingness to pay for a Green Energy program: A comparison of ex-ante and ex-post hypothetical bias mitigation approaches

The most persistently troubling empirical result in the contingent valuation method literature is the tendency for hypothetical willingness to pay to overestimate real willingness to pay. Two approaches, ex-ante and ex-post, have been developed to mitigate or eliminate the overstatement of hypothetical willingness to pay. The ex-ante approach addresses hypothetical bias in the survey design stage while the ex-post approach addresses hypothetical bias with follow-up questions to the hypothetical willingness to pay question. We find that willingness to pay estimates are similar when either the ex-ante or ex-post approach are employed. Our results suggest that the approaches should be considered as complements and not substitutes. Employing both approaches to mitigate hypothetical bias we estimate that the annual benefits of the regional amenities associated with a Green Energy program in North Carolina are $186 million.     

Estimating Mortality and Economic Costs of Particulate Air Pollution in Developing Countries: The Case of Nigeria

The value of statistical life is an essential parameter used in ascribing monetary values to the mortality costs of air pollution in health risk analyses. However, this willingness to pay estimate is virtually non-existent for most developing countries. In the absence of local estimates, two major benefit transfer approaches lend themselves to the estimation of the value of statistical life: the value transfer method and the meta-regression analysis. Using Nigeria as a sample country, we find that the latter method is better tailored than the former for incorporating many characteristics that vary between study sites and policy sites into its benefit transfer application. It is therefore likely to provide more accurate value of statistical life predictions for very low-income countries. Employing the meta-regression method, we find Nigeria’s value of statistical life estimate to be $489,000. Combining this estimate with dose response functions from the epidemiological literature, it follows that if Nigeria had mitigated its 2006 particulate air pollution to the World Health Organisation standards, it could have avoided at least 58,000 premature deaths and recorded an avoided mortality related welfare loss of about $28 billion or 19 % of the nation’s GDP for that year.     

THE IMPACT OF BESTSELLER RANK ON DEMAND: EVIDENCE FROM THE APP MARKET*

This article uses daily data on the ranking by sales of the top 100 apps sold through Apple’s App Store to provide evidence of the causal impact of today’s bestseller rank information on tomorrow’s demand. The estimates indicate that the willingness to pay of consumers is about $4.50 greater for a top ranked app than for the same unranked app. The results also indicate that the effects of bestseller status on willingness to pay decline steeply with rank at the top ranks, but remain economically significant for the apps in the first half of the top 100 list.     

Economic valuation of habitat defragmentation: A study of the Veluwe, the Netherlands

This paper offers an economic value assessment of a nature protection programme in the Veluwe, the Netherlands. This programme involves two defragmentation scenarios: the first scenario connects the central part of the Veluwe with river forelands in a north-eastern direction (i.e. the meadows of the IJssel river), while the second scenario is focussed on defragmentation in a south-western direction (i.e. the meadows of the Rhine river). The valuation is based on a questionnaire that was administered during face-to-face interviews in the area and through the Internet. We employ a contingent valuation approach to assess the respondents' willingness to pay for the realisation of the defragmentation scenarios. It appears that the mean willingness to pay (WTP) for the two defragmentation scenarios is € 162.2 (lognormal distribution) per respondent. Because the Veluwe is considered a nature park of national importance, we performed an aggregation of individual WTP estimates over Dutch households. With the resulting aggregate estimates we can compare the total costs and benefits of the two scenarios for habitat defragmentation in the Veluwe. In addition, we test whether respondents value the two scenarios equally. We also check whether the methods of data collection (face-to-face interviews and Internet questionnaires) have distinct influences on the stated WTP responses.     

External Costs of Aquaculture Production in West Virginia

Temperate hill-lands of the U.S.A. such as those in West Virginia are areas from which increasing output of farm-raised fish may be possible. However, the downstream economic impacts of current and projected future effluent as a result of aquaculture production have not been extensively studied. Using an externality framework and a combination of primary and secondary data, this study determines pollution prevention costs (PPC), and downstream pollution damage costs resulting from fish farm wastewater effluent measured as willingness to pay (WTP) for restoring water quality. PPC is estimated at $0.11 per kg of trout produced (which would add 6% to private production cost), and WTP is estimated at $0.49 per kg of trout produced (representing 25% of private production cost) at current production and price levels. This study shows that installation of filtration units is a low-cost (less than 6% of total cost) and an effective technology for controlling pollution at the source. Internalizing external costs (adding this 6% to private production costs) is one strategy that could contribute to sustainable growth of the aquaculture industry.     

Estimated annual and lifetime labor productivity in the United States, 2016: implications for economic evaluations

Abstract

Background: Human-capital based lifetime productivity estimates are frequently used in cost-of-illness (COI) analyses and, less commonly, in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Previous US estimates assumed that labor productivity and real earnings both grow by 1% per year.

Objectives: This study presents estimates of annual and lifetime productivity for 2016 using data from the American Community Survey, the American Time Use Survey, and the Current Population Survey, and with varying assumptions about real earnings growth.

Methods: The sum of market productivity (gross annual personal labor earnings adjusted for employer-paid benefits) and the imputed value of non-market time spent in household, caring, and volunteer services was estimated. The present value of lifetime productivity at various ages was calculated for synthetic cohorts using annual productivity estimates, life tables, discount rates, and assumptions about future earnings growth rates.

Results: Mean annual productivity was $57,324 for US adults in 2016, including $36,935 in market and $20,389 in non-market productivity. Lifetime productivity at birth, using a 3% discount rate, is roughly $1.5 million if earnings grow by 1% per year and $1.2 million if future earnings growth averages 0.5% per year.

Conclusions: Inclusion of avoidable productivity losses in societal-perspective CEAs of health interventions is recommended in new US cost-effectiveness guidelines. However, estimates vary depending on whether analysts choose to estimate total productivity or just market productivity, and on assumptions made about growth in future productivity and earnings.     

Healthcare costs for Crohn’s disease patients treated with infliximab: a propensity weighted comparison of the effects of treatment adherence

Objective:

The objective for the research was to evaluate the direct healthcare costs for Crohn’s disease (CD) patients categorized by adherence status.

Methods:

Adult patients with ≥1 claim for infliximab and ≥2 claims for CD who were continuously insured for 12 months before and after their first infliximab infusion (index date) were identified in a 2006–2009 US managed care database. Patients were excluded if they had rheumatoid arthritis claims, received infliximab billed as a pharmacy benefit, or received another biologic drug. Patients were categorized as being either adherent or intermittently adherent to infliximab using a pre-defined algorithm. Total and component direct costs, CD-related costs, rates of surgery, and days of hospitalization were estimated for the 360-day post-index period. Propensity weighted generalized linear models were used to adjust the cost estimates for potential confounding variables.

Results:

The total propensity weighted cost for infliximab adherent patients was $40,425 (95% CI?=?[$38,686, $42,242]), compared to $41,082 (95% CI?=?[$38,163, $44,223]) for the intermittently adherent (p?=?0.71). However, adherent patients had lower total direct medical costs, exclusive of infliximab, that were $13,097 (95% CI?=?[$12,141, $14,127]) compared with $20,068 (95% CI?=?[$17,676, $22,784]) for intermittently adherent patients as a result of substantially lower hospital and outpatient costs (p?Conclusions:

Greater drug-related costs for infliximab adherent patients were offset by lower costs from hospitalization and outpatient visits. These findings indicate that adherent patients have improved clinical outcomes, at a similar aggregate cost, than patients who are only intermittently adherent to therapy.     

The willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions in Mongolia

This paper reports results from a stated preference survey designed to estimate the willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The survey includes both contemporaneous and latent risk reductions of a magnitude typically achievable through clean air policy. The study is one of a series of national studies designed to provide comparable estimates around the world. One goal of this series is to build a more solid bridge for benefits transfer between developed and developing countries. The survey was conducted in winter 2010. Estimates of willingness to pay passed external and internal scope tests. Study results imply a value of statistical life of approximately $500,000 (based on a purchasing power parity exchange rate) for a contemporaneous 5-in-10,000 annual risk reduction.     

A Contingent Valuation Estimate of the Benefits of Wolves in Minnesota

In this paper we estimate the willingness topay for a wolf management plan and a wolfdamage plan in Minnesota using the contingentvaluation method. The theoretical definition ofwillingness to pay for wolf protection iscomposed of use and non-use values. Weincorporate a don't know response option in thedichotomous choice valuation questions. A largenumber of respondents answered don't know. Themultinomial logit model is used todifferentiate between don't know and noresponses. Non-use motives are importantfactors that explain willingness to pay. We usethese benefit estimates in combination with twoalternative cost estimates to consider theefficiency of the wolf management and damageplans. Both plans have estimated benefitsgreater than costs.     

Economic Valuation of Ozone-Related School Absences in the South Coast Air Basin of California

Air quality in the South Coast Air Basin of southern California has improved significantly over the past decade, although pollution levels continue to exceed health-based standards on a significant number of days. This study estimates the decline in ozone-related school absences in southern California over the 1990s, reported as differences in the number of days of respiratory illness–related absences, the number of days of all illness-related absences, and the economic loss to families of those absences. The study reports differences in the number of these effects for the intervals 1990–92 to 1997–99, for rolling three-year intervals to 1997–99 across that period, and for expected future reductions in ozone. The baseline population is the cohort aged 5–18 residing in the South Coast Air Basin in 1998. For the interval 1990–92 to 1997–99, the economic value of fewer school absences ranges from $156 million annually to more than $330 million annually, with a best estimate of $245 million. This represents a benefit of nearly $75, on average, for every school-age child in the region. (JEL I10 , I12 , Q2 , Q25 )     

Cost credibility and the stated preference analysis of public goods

Two recent stated preference studies include questions that explore participants’ beliefs regarding the cost amount stated in the valuation question in relation to the cost to them if the project were implemented. Results from these studies suggest that a significant proportion of people do not believe these stated cost amounts. This paper explores the implications of participants answering valuation questions that are not consistent with their beliefs regarding stated costs. As an example, the paper develops a response model for dichotomous choice stated preference questions. Participants gather project information through the stated preference experiment, form a prior distribution of costs, update the distribution of costs based on a survey's stated cost and then respond to the dichotomous choice stated preference question. The model suggests that participants will not generally respond truthfully in the sense that they may say no to a stated cost that is less than their willingness to pay for a project or yes to a stated cost that is more than their willingness to pay. While the model findings suggest potentially serious problems with stated preference estimation, the observed patterns of disbelief from the empirical studies result in downwardly biased estimates of mean willingness to pay.     

Economic costs and impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise and storm surge in Canadian coastal provinces: a CGE approach

We estimated the economic costs and impacts of future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm surge due to climate change in Canada’s coastal provinces using regional, dynamic computable general equilibrium models that track provincial welfare, GDP, trade, prices and inputs over the 2009–2054 period. We also assessed the economic costs of coastal adaptation investments, to determine whether such investments can be justified on economic grounds. Results indicated that SLR and storm surge could cost Canada in the range of $4.6–$25.5 billion in present value welfare, and between $53.7 and $108.7 billion in present value GDP. We found significant variation in costs and impacts across coastal provinces, with some provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador experiencing only marginal costs/impacts, and others such as British Columbia experiencing costs as high as $21 billion in welfare over the period. Coastal adaptation investments were supported on economics grounds. Overall, this study provides the first (and preliminary) provincial economic impact estimates of climate-induced SLR and storm surge, as well as adaptation investments, in Canada. Additional research is needed to refine the analysis in order to produce reliable estimates that can be used to guide coastal adaptation policies in Canada.     

WTP- and QALY-Based Approaches to Valuing Health for Policy: Common Ground and Disputed Territory

This paper discusses links between two approaches to the value of health: the willingness to pay approach of environmental economics and the quality-adjusted life year approach of health economics. The approaches are used in cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of health interventions. Despite fundamental differences in the decision contexts and conceptual foundations of the two approaches, in current practice they are likely to lead to similar policy decisions. The paper also shows how research on the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) can be used to fill in gaps in the willingness to pay literature. The paper sketches a simple model that shows how to ``QALY-fy the value of a statistical life;' i.e., how to combine QALY estimates with estimates of the value of a statistical life to estimate willingness to pay for morbidity risks.Presented at the workshop “Economic Valuation of Health for Environmental Policy: Assessing Alternative Approaches," March 18–19, 2002, Orlando, Florida. I thank Glenn Blomquist, Mark Dickie, John Mullahy, Gary Zarkin and two anonymous referees for useful comments. All remaining errors are my own responsibility.     

The value of online banking to small and medium-sized enterprises: evidence from firms operating in the uae free trade zones

This study estimates the willingness to pay of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for a business online banking services. The estimation utilizes a contingent valuation method employing data from 400 SMEs in the United Arab Emirates free zones. An interval regression model is used to identify company characteristics affecting WTP. The results indicate an average WTP for online banking of $518.50 per month. Firms engaging in international trade value these services at least 10% more than those with only domestic operations. Other variables that significantly affect WTP include number of employees and the transportation cost of using traditional branch banking.     

Endogenously chosen travel costs and the travel cost model: an application to mountain biking at Moab,Utah

The travel cost model is frequently used to estimate net willingness to pay for recreation at remote sites by using the visitor's travel costs as a proxy for the price of recreation. However, some concern has been raised over the validity of using the visitor's stated travel costs as a proxy for price. This paper addresses some of these concerns, by examining the possible over-estimation of consumer surplus due to endogenously chosen travel costs. This paper extends past theoretical work for the linear model by developing a correction for endogenously chosen travel costs in more commonly used nonlinear models such as the Poisson or count data model. Also provided is the first empirical test of the presence of endogeneity and an estimate of the magnitude of the error from ignoring endogeneity in travel costs. After applying this test and the correction to data that was gathered for mountain biking at Moab, Utah the estimate of consumer surplus falls from US $153 to US $135, which is a 12% reduction.     

Valuing Mortality Risk in Kuwait: Stated-Preference with a New Consistency Test

We report stated-preference estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) for Kuwaiti citizens obtained using an innovative test to identify respondents whose survey responses are consistent with economic theory. The consistency test requires that an individual report strictly positive willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality-risk reduction and that his responses to binary-choice valuation questions for two risk reductions be consistent with the theoretical requirement that WTP is less than but close to proportional to the change in risk reduction. Our estimates of VSL, $18–32 million, are approximately two to four times larger than values accepted for the United States. These values may reflect cultural factors as well as the substantially larger disposable income of Kuwaiti citizens.     

Winners, Losers, and the Nuclear-Waste Dilemma

This paper explores how property-right assignment affects social efficiency when a public program has both “public good” and “public bad” components. We show that when willingness to accept a public bad exceeds the willingness to pay, the net benefit is unambiguously lower when the property right supports the status quo institutional structure. Thus, Kaldor–Hicks efficiency tests tend to favor public programs and mitigation over the status quo even when mitigation negatively affects another group. To illustrate the result, we develop social-cost estimates for moving nuclear waste from current temporary-storage facilities to a permanent central repository at Yucca Mountain, NV, USA. For a representative city with a population of 226,195, the present value of the external cost of shipping waste is $1.42 billion when those living near temporary nuclear-waste storage facilities are assigned the property right to “health and safety.” That number swells to $5.95 billion when those living near the transport route are assigned the property right. Thus, property-right assignment affects the efficient level of nuclear-waste, and thus nuclear energy, produced.