INTERFUEL SUBSTITUTION: A META‐ANALYSIS

Abstract This paper provides the first meta‐analysis of the interfuel substitutability literature. The sample includes 47 studies of interfuel substitution in the industrial sector, in manufacturing industry or manufacturing sub‐industries, or in the macro‐economy of a variety of developed and developing countries. Meta‐regressions are estimated for the six shadow elasticities of substitution between coal, oil, gas and electricity. I find that at the level of the industrial sector as a whole the oil–coal, oil–gas, oil–electricity and gas–electricity shadow elasticities of substitution are significantly greater than unity. The remaining elasticities – between coal and gas and coal and electricity – are insignificantly different from unity or zero due to their large standard errors. Substitution possibilities seem more constrained at the macro level and less constrained at lower levels of aggregation. Estimates of the elasticities of substitution from cross‐section regressions are generally largest whereas fixed effects panel estimates are intermediate in magnitude, and time‐series estimates are mostly much smaller. In order to obtain more precise and less biased estimates of long‐run elasticities of substitution, there is a need for additional primary studies using large samples and/or the between estimator which econometric research suggests is likely to provide the best estimates of long‐run elasticities.     

Elasticities of substitution and complementarity

This paper develops a classification scheme of the many different definitions of elasticities of substitution and complementarity in the production case based on primal and dual representations of technology and their related direct and inverse demand functions, gross and net substitution, elasticity type, and three different basic concepts of substitution and complementarity. The ten elasticities of substitution are derived from the cost, profit, input distance, and revenue functions. All the elasticities are equally valid for single and multi-output technologies. The classic Berndt-Wood dataset is used to show the considerable variation across the elasticities.     

THE NORMALIZED CES PRODUCTION FUNCTION: THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Abstract The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor and, in turn, the direction of technical change are critical parameters in many fields of economics. Until recently, though, the application of production functions with specifically non‐unitary substitution elasticities (i.e., non‐Cobb–Douglas) was hampered by empirical and theoretical uncertainties. As recently revealed, ‘normalization’ of production‐technology systems holds out the promise of resolving many of those uncertainties. We survey and assess the intrinsic links between production (as conceptualized in a production function), factor substitution (as made most explicit in Constant Elasticity of Substitution functions) and normalization (defined by the fixing of baseline values for relevant variables). First, we recall how the normalized Constant Elasticity of Substitution function came into existence and what normalization implies for its formal properties. Then we deal with the key role of normalization in recent advances in the theory of business cycles and of economic growth. Next, we discuss the benefits normalization brings for empirical estimation and empirical growth research. Finally, we identify promising areas of future research.     

Local Asymptotic Power of Breitung's Test*

In this article, we derive the local asymptotic power function of the unit root test proposed by Breitung [Journal of Econometrics (2002) Vol. 108, pp. 343–363]. Breitung's test is a non‐parametric test and is free of nuisance parameters. We compare the local power curve of the Breitungs’ test with that of the Dickey–Fuller test. This comparison is in fact a quantification of the loss of power that one has to accept when applying a non‐parametric test.     

Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots in Monthly Panels of Time Series*

We consider the problem of testing for seasonal unit roots in monthly panel data. To this aim, we generalize the quarterly cross‐sectionally augmented Hylleberg–Engle–Granger–Yoo (CHEGY) test to the monthly case. This parametric test is contrasted with a new non‐parametric test, which is the panel counterpart to the univariate record unit–root seasonal (RURS) test that relies on counting extrema in time series. All methods are applied to an empirical data set on tourism in Austrian provinces. The power properties of the tests are evaluated in simulation experiments that are tuned to the tourism data.     

Specification Testing of Markov Switching Models*

This paper proposes a set of formal tests to address the goodness‐of‐fit of Markov switching models. These formal tests are constructed as tests of model consistency and of both parametric and non‐parametric encompassing. The formal tests are then combined with informal tests using simulation in combination with non‐parametric density and conditional mean estimation. The informal tests are shown to be useful in shedding light on the failure (or success) of the encompassing tests. Several examples are provided.     

The Relative Price of Non‐traded Goods under Imperfect Competition*

We consider the role of imperfect competition in explaining the relative price of non‐traded to traded goods within the Balassa–Samuelson framework. Under imperfect competition in these two sectors, relative prices depend on both productivity and mark‐up differentials. We test this hypothesis using a panel of sectors for 12 OECD countries. The empirical evidence suggests that relative price movements are well explained by productivity and mark‐up differentials.     

How to optimize the allocation of research resources? An empirical study based on output and substitution elasticities of universities in Chinese provincial level

Although significant progress has been made in China's basic research in recent years, there remains a wide gap between research in China and that from developed countries. How to optimize the allocative efficiency of research resources is of great importance for increasing research output. In this paper, using the fixed effect stochastic frontier model based on the translog production function, we estimate output and substitution elasticities of research and development (R&D) inputs at universities in China's provincial level during 2009–2016. We find that the R&D technical efficiency of China's universities, after a rapid growth, has tended to become relatively stable. Improvements of internationalization degree and exogenous R&D capabilities are conducive to promoting R&D technical efficiency, whereas expenditures from government grants inhibit the promotion of R&D technical efficiency; the effects of R&D capital deepening and internet penetration are not evident. The output elasticity of R&D capital is much higher than that of R&D personnel, suggesting that R&D capital is the main driving force of research output. The substitution elasticity between R&D capital and personnel has experienced a change from substitution to complementary since 2014. To realize sustained growth of research output, we should increase R&D input with positive output elasticity or reduce R&D input with negative output elasticity, making the necessary trade-offs according to the substitution relationship between the two R&D inputs.     

Social Capital and Economic Growth in Europe: Nonlinear Trends and Heterogeneous Regional Effects

Most of the literature focused on the social capital‐growth nexus has followed the one‐size‐fits‐all approach, neglecting that regional disparities might modify this relationship. This article analyses the role of two social capital indicators on the growth of 237 European regions in the period 1995–2007 by implementing non‐parametric regression, which relaxes the linearity assumption and allows the data to give the underlying functional form. The results show that social capital effects on growth are nonlinear. Parameter heterogeneity could also be examined, showing heterogenous effects across regions and over time. In particular, social capital is mostly negative in regions from Eastern and Central Europe during the first years of transition from socialism to market economies. However, this pattern has changed in the more recent period.     

Board Antecedents of CEO Duality and the Moderating Role of Country‐level Managerial Discretion: A Meta‐analytic Investigation

CEO duality reduces boards’ monitoring capacity. But governance substitution theory holds that boards of directors who can effectively monitor their CEOs are more likely to adopt the CEO duality governance structure. By examining relationships between board characteristics underlying their monitoring capacity and CEO duality, we bring evidence to bear on governance substitution theory. Further, by applying a managerial discretion theory lens to CEO duality, we extend governance substitution theory to the cross‐country context where institutional features vary in their constraints on managerial discretion. Meta‐analytic results from a dataset of 297 studies across 32 countries/regions provided support for the majority of our predictions. As predicted, board independence and certain types of board human capital were positively related to CEO duality. Unexpectedly, board ownership was negatively related to CEO duality. Additionally, country‐level managerial discretion significantly moderated the board independence‐ and human capital‐duality relationships (but not the board‐ownership‐duality relationship) as predicted.     

Does Skill Content Explain Total Trade and Intra‐Industry Trade?*

This study compares the results of skill content tests for types of trade flows under alternative assumptions about the technologies used to produce imports and exports. For trade between high‐ and middle‐income countries, we show that the match between the actual skill content of trade and that predicted by endowments in a Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek framework improves substantially if technological heterogeneity across countries is allowed for and if the factor content of intra‐industry trade is included with that of inter‐industry trade. Endowment differences are important in explaining net trade and vertical intra‐industry trade, but not horizontal intra‐industry trade.     

Family Size and Educational Investments in Children: Evidence from Private Tutoring Expenditures in South Korea*

Relying on private tutoring expenditures in South Korea, this paper examines whether large family size has a strong negative impact on educational investments in children. To deal with endogeneity of family size, the paper employs a non‐parametric bounding method as well as an instrumental variables method. Our primary finding is that quantity–quality trade‐offs in educational investments function in a way that varies by the sex of the child. While there is a non‐negligible negative effect of large family size on educational investments for girls, there is little if any impact on those for boys. Son preferences traditionally shown by Korean parents seem to underlie such empirical findings.     

The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real‐option Model*

The hazard rate of investment is derived within a real‐option model, and its properties are analysed so as to directly study the relation between uncertainty and investment. Maximum likelihood estimates of the hazard are calculated using a sample of multinational enterprises (MNEs) that invested in Central and Eastern Europe over the period 1990–98. Employing a standard, non‐parametric specification of the hazard, our measure of uncertainty has a negative effect on investment, but the reduced‐form model is unable to control for nonlinearities in the relationship. The structural estimation of the option‐based hazard is instead able to account for the nonlinearities and exhibits a significant value of waiting, although the latter is independent of our measure of uncertainty. This finding supports the existence of alternative channels through which uncertainty can affect investment.     

Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?

Empirical growth regressions typically include mean years of schooling as a proxy for human capital. However, empirical research often finds that the sign and significance of schooling depends on the sample of observations or the specification of the model. We use a non‐parametric local‐linear regression estimator and a non‐parametric variable relevance test to conduct a rigorous and systematic search for significance of mean years of schooling by examining five of the most comprehensive schooling databases. Contrary to a few recent articles that have identified significant nonlinearities between education and growth, our results suggest that mean years of schooling is not a statistically relevant variable in growth regressions. However, we do find evidence (within a cross‐sectional framework), that educational achievement, measured by mean test scores, may provide a more reliable measure of human capital than mean years of schooling.     

SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES IN A CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION FRAMEWORK – EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES USING NONLINEAR LEAST SQUARES

Elasticities are key parameters for any economic analysis. Using the World-Input–Output Database, we estimate substitution elasticities for a three-level nested constant elasticity of substitution KLEM production structure using up to date nonlinear least squares estimation procedures. This allows us for the first time to use one coherent data set for the estimation process. Furthermore, it gives us the opportunity to derive elasticities from the same data which researchers can use to calibrate their models. On the basis of our estimations, we demonstrate that the practice of using Cobb–Douglas or Leontief production functions in economic models must be rejected for the majority of sectors. We provide a comprehensive set of estimated substitution elasticities covering a wide range of sectors. Our results suggest that no substantial change in input substitutability takes place during the time period we consider. Moreover, there is no substantial variation in substitution elasticities across regions.     

A comment on Mendeş and Yiğit (2013), ‘Type I error and test power of different tests for testing interaction effects in factorial experiments’, Statistica Neerlandica, 67:1–26

In their advocacy of the rank‐transformation (RT) technique for analysis of data from factorial designs, Mende? and Yi?it (Statistica Neerlandica, 67, 2013, 1–26) missed important analytical studies identifying the statistical shortcomings of the RT technique, the recommendation that the RT technique not be used, and important advances that have been made for properly analyzing data in a non‐parametric setting. Applied data analysts are at risk of being misled by Mende? and Yi?it, when statistically sound techniques are available for the proper non‐parametric analysis of data from factorial designs. The appropriate methods express hypotheses in terms of normalized distribution functions, and the test statistics account for variance heterogeneity.     

Structural aspects of social capital: tests for cross-national equivalence in Europe

In this contribution we start from the emerging consensus on the widely disputed phenomenon of social capital. We propose to focus on structural aspects of social capital: formal (contacts within formal organizations) and informal (contacts outside of formal organizations). First, we address methodological questions on the cross-national equivalence of these social capital measurements. Second, we re-visit substantive questions on the patterns of relationships in different European countries. In particular, we inquire to which degree formal and informal social capital can substitute each other, as well as being complementary. We take advantage of recent Eurobaromer data (2004) containing a wide range of valid measurements on both structural aspects of social capital. We find strong evidence for cross-national equivalent measurements regarding formal social capital, employing probabilistic scalogram analyses. For informal social capital, we find strong evidence for configural and metric invariance as well as evidence for partial scalar invariance, employing multi group confirmatory factor analyses. We have to reject the substantive hypothesis on substitution of formal and informal social capital for all countries under consideration, except for Romania. We corroborate the hypothesis on complementarity of formal and informal social capital.     

Forecast Pooling for European Macroeconomic Variables*

We compare alternative forecast pooling methods and 58 forecasts from linear, time‐varying and non‐linear models, using a very large dataset of about 500 macroeconomic variables for the countries in the European Monetary Union. On average, combination methods work well but single non‐linear models can outperform them for several series. The performance of pooled forecasts, and of non‐linear models, improves when focusing on a subset of unstable series, but the gains are minor. Finally, on average over the EMU countries, the pooled forecasts behave well for industrial production growth, unemployment and inflation, but they are often beaten by non‐linear models for each country and variable.     

Indeterminacy in discrete-time infinite-horizon models with non-linear utility and endogenous labor

We consider a discrete-time two-sector model with sector specific externalities in which the technologies are given by CES functions with asymmetric elasticities of capital–labor substitution, and the preferences of the representative agent are given by a CES additively separable utility function defined over consumption and leisure. We first show that when the labor supply is infinitely elastic, the steady state is always saddle-point stable, no matter what the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the size of externalities are. We then prove that when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is sufficiently large, local indeterminacy requires a low enough elasticity of the labor supply.     

The Effects of Additive Outliers and Measurement Errors when Testing for Structural Breaks in Variance*

This article discusses the asymptotic and finite‐sample properties of the CUSUM tests for detecting structural breaks in volatility when the data are perturbed with (additive) outliers and/or measurement errors. The special focus is on the parametric and non‐parametric tests in Inclán and Tiao (1994) and Kokoszka and Leipus (2000) . Whereas the asymptotic distribution of the former can be largely affected, the distribution of the latter remains invariant and renders consistent break‐point estimates. In small samples, however, large additive outliers are able to generate sizeable distortions in both tests, which explains some of the contradictory findings in previous literature.