Existence of a continuum of equilibria in a monetary random-matching model

In this paper, we study a monetary random-matching model where both goods and money are perfectly divisible, production is costly, and there is no exogenous upper bound on agents' money holdings, information on which is private to the agent. We show that there is a continuum of stationary equilibria where agents have either no money or a set amount, and buyers spend all their money. As in the previous studies, the equilibrium value function is step-like, which emerges as a self-fulfilling prophecy. The endogenous upper bound on agents' money holdings is the result of private information on agents' money holdings. Buyers post an offer that is accepted only by sellers without money, who set a higher value on money.     

Multiple reserve requirements in a monetary growth model

Summary. This paper considers a monetary growth model in which banks provide liquidity, and in which a government finances a deficit by printing money and selling bonds. In this context, I examine the possibility that the government may want to impose binding reserve requirements on banks' holdings of both money and government bonds. Conditions are established under which doing so increases steady state welfare and reduces the scope for indeterminacies. Furthermore, under a binding system of multiple reserve requirements we have that money is superneutral. On the other hand, if reserve requirements are imposed on cash holdings alone, increases in the steady state inflation rate adversely affect capital accumulation and long run real activity. Thus systems of multiple binding reserve requirements can insulate real activity from the consequences of inflationary taxation. Received: June 30, 2000; revised version: January 31, 2001     

MONEY CYCLES

Operating overheads are widespread and lead to concentrated bursts of activity. To transfer resources between active and idle spells, agents demand financial assets. Futures contracts and lotteries are unsuitable, as they have substantial overheads of their own. We show that money—under efficient monetary policy—is a liquid asset that leads to efficient allocations. Under all other policies, agents follow inefficient “money cycle” patterns of saving, activity, and inactivity. Agents spend their money too quickly—a hot‐potato effect of inflation. We show that inflation can stimulate inefficiently high aggregate output.     

Search, money, and inflation under private information

I study monetary exchange and inflation when buyers have private information about their willingness to pay for certain goods. Introducing imperfect information in the Lagos-Wright [A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis, J. Polit. Economy 113(3) (2005) 463-484] economy shows that the existence of monetary equilibrium is a more robust feature of the environment. In general, my model has a monetary steady state in which only a proportion of the agents hold money. Agents who do not hold money cannot participate in trade in the decentralized market. The proportion of agents holding money is endogenous and depends (negatively) on the level of expected inflation. As in Lagos and Wright's model, in equilibrium there is a positive welfare cost of expected inflation, but the origins of this cost are very different.     

Seigniorage and Japanese fiscal sustainability: Simulation analysis using an overlapping generations model

This study examines two tax policies for achieving fiscal sustainability in Japan: (i) an increase in consumption tax and (ii) consumption tax hike combined with inflation. To evaluate these policies from both fiscal and welfare perspectives, I develop a multi-period overlapping generations model with money. The results reveal that, compared to the first policy, the second policy can substantially delay the timing of and curb the increase in consumption tax through seigniorage revenue. This suggests seigniorage could be a useful tool for the Japanese government in resolving its fiscal problems. In addition, in an aging Japan, the second policy can enhance future generations’ utility. Because inflation reduces money holdings and utility of the elderly, policies that cause inflation in the present but reduce it in the future improve the utility of future generations. From a social welfare viewpoint, such policies are desirable in a government that has foresight.     

Would helicopter money be spent? New evidence for the Netherlands

According to some economists, central banks should use ‘helicopter money’ to boost inflation (expectations). Based on a survey among Dutch households, we examine whether respondents would spend the money received via such a transfer. Our results show that respondents expect to spend about 30% of the transfer and that helicopter money would hardly affect inflation expectations. Furthermore, whether transfers come from the central bank or the government makes no difference. Finally, our results suggest that the effect of helicopter money on public trust in the ECB is ambiguous.     

Optimal inflation in a model of inside money

There are several models of outside money in which some inflation accomplished through lump-sum transfers is optimal. It is shown here that inflation can be optimal in a model of inside money, essentially the model in Cavalcanti and Wallace (1999). The possibility of inflation comes about via the trades between people who can issue inside money, monitored people, and those who cannot, nonmonitored people. Inflation occurs at the optimum if the monitored people spend more in such meetings when they are buyers than they receive in such meetings when they are sellers.     

Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents and borrowing constraints

We show that the long-run neutrality of inflation on capital accumulation obtained in complete market models no longer holds when households face binding credit constraints. Borrowing-constrained households are not able to rebalance their financial portfolio when inflation varies, and thus adjust their money holdings differently compared to unconstrained households. This heterogeneity leads to a new precautionary savings motive, which implies that inflation increases capital accumulation. We quantify the importance of this new channel in an incomplete market model where the traditional redistributive effects of inflation are also introduced. We show that this model provides a quantitative rationale for the observed hump-shaped relationship between inflation and capital accumulation.     

CALCULATING WELFARE COSTS OF INFLATION IN A SEARCH MODEL WITH PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY: A CALIBRATION EXERCISE

Using US cross‐sectional data, this paper calculates the welfare cost of a 10 percent inflation for different individuals and finds that the difference in cost between the poorest 20 percent, measured by their net worth, and the richest 20 percent is in the order of 102 percent. That is, a poor person is on average willing to forgive 102 percent more of their total consumption in order to have inflation reduced from 10 percent to 0. In absolute terms this represents a cost of 0.461 percent of consumption for the poorest and 0.228 percent for the richest. I accomplish this by introducing preference heterogeneity in a monetary search model first developed by Lagos and Wright, and calibrate the model to match each agent's type of cash holdings, approximated by their holdings in transactional accounts that bear almost no interest, as a fraction of their net worth using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. I also show that this welfare difference increases to 130 percent (2.28 percent for the poorest 20 percent and 0.992 percent for the richest 20 percent) whenever frictions in the use of money are imposed (holdup problem). This distributional effect is further augmented if more frictions in the terms of trade are present. The ability to explicitly model these frictions is the advantage of using this model. Hence, inflation in this framework, as other studies have shown, acts as a regressive consumption tax; and this regressiveness is augmented with the holdup problem.     

CONTINGENT PRICES AND MONEY*

Price posting with directed search is a widely used trading mechanism. Coles and Eeckhout showed that if sellers are allowed to post prices contingent on realized demand instead of one price, then there is real market indeterminacy. In this article, we fit this contingent price‐posting protocol into a monetary economy. We show that, as long as holding money is costly, there exists a unique equilibrium rather than a continuum. In this equilibrium sellers post a low price for when the buyer is alone, a high price for when several buyers show up, and buyers randomize between sellers and money holdings.     

Time-varying money demand and real balance effects

This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics. By assuming that household's money holdings and consumption preferences are not separable, we demonstrate that the interest-elasticity of demand for money is a function of the household's preference to hold real balances, the extent to which these preferences are not separable in consumption and real balances, and trend inflation. An empirical study of U.S. data revealed that there was a gradual fall in the interest elasticity of money demand of approximately one-third during the 1970s due to high trend inflation. A further decline in the interest-elasticity of the demand for money was observed in the 1980s due to the changing household preferences that emerged in response to financial innovation. These developments led to a reduction in the welfare cost of inflation that subsequently explains the rise in monetary neutrality observed in the data.     

A monetary theory with non-degenerate distributions

We construct and analyze a tractable search model of money with a non-degenerate distribution of money holdings. Analytical tractability comes from modeling decentralized exchange as directed search, which makes the monetary steady state block recursive. By adapting lattice-theoretic techniques, we characterize individuals? policy and value functions, and show that these functions satisfy the standard conditions of optimization. We prove that a unique monetary steady state exists and provide conditions under which the steady-state distribution of buyers over money balances is non-degenerate. Moreover, we analyze the properties of this distribution.     

Search, Bargaining, Money, and Prices Under Private Information

This paper presents a model of money and search where bargaining determines prices and the quality of goods is private information. It studies how a lemons problem affects the purchasing power of money. There are multiple, Pareto-ranked equilibria. The superior equilibrium, where no lemons are produced, exists even if information about quality is relatively scarce. In other equilibria, there is price dispersion, and uninformed buyers pay higher prices than informed buyers for all goods. Taxing money balances (a proxy for inflation) makes buyers less selective, thus reducing the average quality of supply and the premium paid for known quality.     

财政政策、货币政策与国外经济援助

本文通过把国外经济援助分成直接对私人的经济援助和直接对政府的经济援助来讨论这两类经济援助对政府财政政策和货币政策的影响。我们发现对私人的经济援助的增加可以使得私人消费水平和政府公共消费水平增加 ,但是它也导致政府收入税税率和通货膨胀率的提高 ;另一方面 ,对政府的经济援助增加可以使得均衡时的私人资本存量、私人消费水平和政府公共消费水平增加 ,同时可以使得均衡时的收入税税率和通货膨胀率下降。     

Inflation Tax and Substitution Between Domestic and Foreign Assets: Evidence from Central-Eastern Europe

Dominant factors in determining real money holdings in Poland, Hungary, and Slovenia during a transition period characterized by high inflation are analyzed. Two hypotheses are tested. Cagan's model suggests that inflation-adjusted money balances are influenced almost exclusively by inflationary expectations. A competing model suggests that under highly inflationary conditions there is an incentive for agents to substitute foreign for domestic assets in their portfolios because of the higher expected return. Inflation expectation is a dominant factor in Poland. The expected return to holding foreign assets dominates in Hungary. Both factors have played important roles in Slovenia.     

Endogenous buyer-seller choice and divisible money in search equilibrium

In the Lagos-Wright model [R. Lagos, R. Wright, A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis, J. Polit. Economy 113 (2005) 463-484], the quasi-linear preferences assumption is not necessary to generate simple distributions of money holdings if individuals choose endogenously to go to the search market as buyers or as sellers. The non-convex buyer-seller choice provides an incentive for gambling in lotteries, and, as a result, the value function has a linear interval. As long as this interval is the relevant one for evaluating their future utilities, individuals behave as if their preferences were quasi-linear. In the stationary equilibrium, individuals remain inside this linear interval if the money supply does not decline.     

Assessing excess liquidity in the euro area: the role of sectoral distribution of money

The strong and prolonged deviation of money growth from its reference value since 2001 has caused concern among policy-makers about the upside risks to price stability from monetary developments. In this article we provide evidence that these risks might have been smaller until 2005 than regularly assumed. Three basic findings support this view. First, a sectoral breakdown of money holdings shows that current excess liquidity conditions have been partly related to the acceleration of nonbank financial intermediaries’ money demand, as well as to the accumulation of marketable instruments. Such increases are likely to be associated more to portfolio choices than to transaction motives. Second, evidence from balance sheet data on investment funds points to a general increase in the relative importance of this sector in the economy, rather than to a higher degree of liquidity of their asset positions, thus reflecting, to a large extent, a permanent change in the financial structure of the economy. Third, excess liquidity measures that exclude nonbank financial intermediaries’ money holdings have more predictive power for future inflation at medium-term horizons than those that include them.     

Liquidity Preference and Financial Intermediation

We examine the characteristics of optimal monetary policies in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets. Markets are incomplete because of uninsured preference uncertainty, and because productive capital is traded infrequently. Rational individuals are willing to hold a liquid asset—"money"—at a premium. Monetary policy interacts with existing financial institutions to determine this premium, as well as the level of precautionary holdings. We show that inflation is expansionary, and that the optimal inflation rate is positive if there is no operative banking system (the Tobin effect). Otherwise, efficiency requires that money be undominated in its rate of return (the Friedman Rule).     

Inflation targets and endogenous wage markups in a New Keynesian model

Empirical contributions show that wage re-negotiations take place while expiring contracts are still in place. This is captured by assuming that nominal wages are pre-determined. As a consequence, wage setters act as Stackelberg leaders, whereas in the typical New Keynesian model the wage-setting rule implies that they play a Nash game. We present a DSGE New Keynesian model with pre-determined wages and money entering the representative household’s utility function and show how these assumptions are sufficient to identify an inverse relationship between the inflation target and the wage markup (and thus employment) both in the short and the long run. This is due to the complementary effects that wage claims and the inflation target have on money holdings. Model estimates suggest that a moderate long-run inflation rate generates non-negligible output gains.