An aging society: opportunity or challenge?

"This paper steps back from the current political debate [in the United States] over the social security trust fund and examines the more general question of how serious a macroeconomic problem aging is and how policy should respond to it. We focus primarily on issues relating to saving and capital accumulation. We do not consider the broader question of whether the current U.S. national saving rate is too high or too low, but focus on the effect of demographic changes on the optimal level of national saving. In addition, we consider the effects of demographic change on productivity growth and the optimal timing of tax collections. Our general conclusion is that demographic changes will improve American standards of living in the near future, but lower them slightly over the very long term. Other things being equal, the optimal policy response to recent and anticipated demographic changes is almost certainly a reduction rather than an increase in the national saving rate."     

Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)

The purpose of this study is two-fold: firstly, to analyze the long run relationship between household saving and various socio-economic and demographic variables and secondly, to determine the short run and the long run impact of various socio-economic and demographic variables on the household saving rate in Pakistan. The relationship between household saving and various socio-economic and demographic variables is analyzed by applying Johansen cointegration analysis. Furthermore, Error Correction Model is also estimated in order to find out the convergence of the model towards equilibrium. The results show that there exists a long run relationship between household saving and the variables used in the study, while the result of Error Correction Model reveals that about 45% convergence towards equilibrium takes place every year.     

Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan,China, and India

We use a model of household life-cycle saving decisions to quantify the impact of demographic changes on aggregate household saving rates in Japan, China, and India. The observed age distributions help explain the contrasting saving patterns over time across the three countries. In the model simulations, the growing number of retirees suppresses Japanese saving rates, while decreasing family size increases saving for both China and India. Projecting forward, the model predicts a decline in household saving rates in Japan and China.     

THE DECLINE OF JAPAN'S SAVING RATE AND DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS*

This paper investigates the phenomenon in which Japan's household saving rate showed a sharp decline even during the long stagnation period called “the lost decade.” Our empirical results show that the sharp decline in the saving rate in the 1990s can be explained by the significant impact of demographic factors. Furthermore, the estimated life cycle curve is hump shaped, meaning that the prediction of the life cycle model is confirmed with time series data on the Japanese saving rate.     

Who is saving privately for retirement and how much? New evidence for Germany

Due to demographic change, the replacement rates of the German statutory pension scheme will decrease over the next decades. Voluntary savings for retirement will therefore increase in relevance as a method of maintaining one’s standard of living during retirement. This article examines the savings behavior for retirement on an individual level in Germany at the extensive as well as the intensive margin. First, the decision to save in general is analyzed, showing that the main determinants for saving are personal income and disposable household income. Furthermore, it is shown that migrants and individuals living in the Eastern part of Germany turn out to be less likely to have additional private savings. Second, the chosen gross saving rates are analyzed using a Tobit model, a log-normal hurdle model and a Type II Tobit model. The results suggest that the decision to save in general, as well as the saving rate, are independent of each other, leading to a loss of information if only a standard Tobit model is used. For example, higher personal income increases the probability to save for retirement, but decreases the resulting saving rate. Modeling both decisions separately thus, leads to a better understanding of the determinants of saving for old-age.     

Demographic links to savings in life cycle models: identification of issues for LDCs

The author considers the potential for a link between the recent pattern of demographic transition and intertemporal and inter-country variations in savings rates. Fertility, infant mortality, life expectancy, and levels of female and child labor force participation are among the various demographic factors which affect national savings rates through their effects upon age structure, age-specific individual savings behavior, and their general equilibrium effects upon interest rates, wage rates, and income distribution. The author establishes a simple discrete time life cycle model of savings, explains the issues related to age structure, and discusses the effect of age-specific savings functions, the general equilibrium effects of demographic factors, the effects of life expectancies and child mortalities, and the nature of social security coverages in less developed countries, as well as issues which are especially important for less developed countries. A new strategy for empirically evaluating demographic policies is proposed. That is, one can estimate the age profile of earnings, saving and fertility rates from household survey data. The life tables can then be used to compute the aggregate savings rate and population size. Any demographic policy which affects the fertility rate, life expectancy, and investment in the quality of children will change the aggregate saving and population growth rates. These two aggregate effects could be compared to evaluate demographic policies. The author stresses, however, that changes in different demographic factors will have different short-run and long-run effects upon the savings rate which will also depend upon whether such changes are transitory or permanent.     

Technical Change in a Model with Fair Wages and Unemployment

This paper uses a variable rate-of-growth model of life-cycle saving as developed by Fry and Mason (1982) to show that demographic factors were behind the rapid rise in saving in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The steady decline in the population dependency ratio in an environment of rapid economic growth was the determining factor driving the trend rise in savings in these three countries. Furthermore, demographic trends can also explain the difference in saving ratios in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. When one compares these countries at the same stage in their development, Koreans did save "little" relative to Japan, but not relative to Taiwan, and this difference in saving can be explained by Korea's higher rate of dependency. [E21, N15]     

The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom*

This paper addresses two issues. The first is whether demographic change was plausibly responsible for the run‐up in stock prices over the last decade, and whether an attempt by the baby boom cohort to cash out of its investments in the period 2010–2030 might lead to an “asset meltdown”. The second issue is whether the rise in dependency that will accompany the retirement of the baby‐boom cohort calls for an increase in national saving. We analyze these issues using a forward‐looking macro‐demographic model, and show that they are related via the existence of installation costs for capital. If such costs are sufficiently large, then demographics do have the power to affect stock prices, but “saving for America's old age” is less optimal. However, conventional estimates of capital installation costs are not large enough to explain large stock price movements in response to actual demographic change.     

Trends in household saving don't justify tax incentives to boost saving

Despite diverse trends in household saving in OECD countries, many governments are introducing tax incentives designed to boost saving by particular groups. Such schemes have been justified by many trends, including increasing income inequality, ageing populations, and greater cross-border competition. It is dangerous, however, to base policy on what is happening to aggregate household saving alone. First, personal saving should be viewed within a lifecycle context. Saving may look inadequate today, but households may already have made plans to redress this in future. Second, data on aggregate saving conceal significant differences between different household groups. Only disaggregation yields reliable inferences on which policy can be based. In particular, it is impossible to assess the consequences of demographic changes without analysis that distinguishes between different generations.
We reassess household saving by computing the evolution of lifetime profiles of consumption, income and saving of different cohorts over time, and then analyse the effect of demographic and other changes. We find little evidence for the assertion that tax incentives to promote national saving are needed now to stave off a future drought in household saving.     

WHY DOES IT MATTER THAT BELIEFS AND VALUATIONS BE CORRECTLY REPRESENTED?*

This article contains an analysis of a simple principal–agent problem illustrating possible problems that may arise when the prinicpal ascribes to the agent subjective probabilities and utilities that are implied by the subjective expected utility model but do not represent the agent's beliefs and valuations. In particular, it is possible that an incentive contract designed by the principal induces the agent to choose an action that is not in the principal's best interest.     

Born like China,growing like China

This paper studies the effects of China's one‐child policy on saving and foreign reserve accumulation. Fertility control increases the saving rate both by altering saving decisions at the household level, and by altering the demographic composition of the population at the aggregate level. I show that demographically induced changes in saving explain the build‐up of a large foreign surplus in China. As in Song, Storesletten, and Zilibtti (2011), the model features contractual and financial market imperfections. Government‐owned firms are less productive but have full access to the credit market. Entrepreneurial firms are more productive but face credit constraints. As labour switches from less productive to more productive firms, demand for domestic bank borrowing decreases. As saving increases while demand for loans decreases, domestic savings are invested abroad, generating a foreign surplus. The model predicts that China's foreign reserve accumulation will soon begin to slow down in response to recent relaxation of the one‐child policy.     

Demography, growth, and inequality

We extend the single-sector endogenous growth model to allow for a general demographic structure. The model shows that due to the “generational turnover term,” the equilibrium growth rate is less than that of a representative agent model. We find the local dynamics about the balanced growth path (bgp) to be unstable, implying that the bgp is the only viable equilibrium. Using numerical simulations, we analyze how economic consequences of a change in the population growth rate differ, depending on the source of the demographic change. In addition, we analyze the relationship between changes in the demographic structure and what we call the “natural rate of wealth inequality”. Finally, we use our model to study how the demographic transition experienced by the United States has affected the economic growth rate and the degree of wealth inequality.     

人口结构变化对消费结构及储蓄率的影响分析

利用1995年、2002年和2007年的CHIPS(China Household Income Projects)数据实证分析了家庭人口结构变化对城乡居民家庭消费结构和储蓄率的影响。家庭收入、规模大小、户主年龄和家庭不同年龄人口占比等家庭人口结构变量对消费结构和储蓄率都有一定的影响。就消费结构来说,如教育支出方面,老年家庭明显低于年轻家庭;医疗保障支出方面,老年家庭明显高于年轻家庭。同时,研究表明我国城镇和农村家庭的户主年龄与储蓄率略呈U型结构,也就是说我国家庭微观储蓄率与经典的生命周期假设不一致。进一步探讨了未来家庭人口结构变化对中国家庭储蓄率和经济结构的影响以及相关政策涵义。     

The impact of the demographic transition on capital formation

"The population of the United States is aging. We review a variety of the implications this has for U.S. national saving rates, and discuss the policy issues that they raise. After reviewing what different models would predict for household saving over the next several decades, we consider how the demographic transition may also affect national saving through changes in government behavior. Ways in which the composition of household saving might change as individuals age are also analyzed along with the implications of changes in government fiscal policy for asset composition."     

A comparative study of energy saving technical progress in a vintage capital model

We analyze the hypothesis about the effectiveness of energy saving technologies to reduce the trade-off between economic growth and energy preservation. In a general equilibrium vintage capital model with embodied energy saving technical progress, we show that positive growth is only possible if the growth rate of the energy saving technical progress exceeds the decreasing rate of the energy supply.     

A comparison of national saving rates in the UK, US and Italy

We develop the approach of Gokhale, Kotlikoff and Sabelhaus [1996. Understanding the postwar decline in US saving: A cohort analysis. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0, 315-390], based on the life-cycle model of savings, to decompose the differences in the national saving rates between the UK, US and Italy. Our work suggests that the US saving rate is lower principally because Americans on average retire later. In contrast, the Italian saving rate is higher predominantly because Italians are credit constrained, particularly when young. We also found that demography and the different tax and benefit systems are able to explain little of the cross-sectional differences in saving rates. The study accounts for the possible importance of inter-generational private transfers in determining saving rates.     

Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries

While earlier empirical studies found a negative saving effect of old-age dependency rates without considering longevity, recent studies have found that longevity has a positive effect on growth without considering old-age dependency rates. In this paper, we first justify the related yet independent roles of longevity and old-age dependency rates in determining saving and growth by using a growth model that encompasses both neoclassical and endogenous growth models as special cases. Using panel data from a recent World Bank data set, we then find that the longevity effect is positive and the dependency effect is negative in savings and investment regressions. The estimates indicate that the differences in the demographic variables across countries or over time can well explain the differences in aggregate savings rates. We also find that both population age structure and life expectancy are important contributing factors to growth.     

Chinese Saving Rates from 1953 to 2012: Trends,Compositions and Prospects

This study conducts a long‐run analysis on the trends and components of Chinese saving rates from 1953 to 2012. We identify two structural changes in aggregate saving rates around 1978 and 2001, and examine them through a decomposition analysis of the income distribution and sector‐specific saving rates. The following key findings are obtained. First, the major trends and compositions of Chinese saving rates changed markedly over the period considered, which explains the changes of aggregate saving rates with the dramatic economic transition from a planned economy to a market‐oriented economy. Second, we investigate the surge in aggregate saving rates from 2001 to 2012 based on a series of institutional factors, such as the evolving labour market, domestic economic policy adjustments and changes in external economic conditions caused by China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 and the 2008 global financial crisis. Finally, we present the future prospects for the high aggregate saving rates in China based on several evolving economic, demographic and policy trends. We argue that Chinese saving rates have peaked in recent years and that a declining trend is expected, which will contribute to the economic rebalancing of the country.     

Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy

Over the next few decades there will be significant changes in the demographic structure of nearly all developed countries. Such dramatic demographic change could have a powerful impact upon saving behaviour, but estimates of how great the effects will be differ depending on what evidence is used. This paper argues that simulations based on calibrated general equilibrium models are likely to provide the most reliable evidence. A model is developed and is used to assess the impact of reforms to pension systems.     

EXPLAINING THE DECLINE OF THE U.S. SAVING RATE: THE ROLE OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE

The U.S. saving rate declined by 8% between 1980 and 2009. We document that the decline can be explained by rising health expenditures. Using exogenous variation in medical expenses generated by Food and Drug Administration drug approvals, we document that a 1 percentage point increase in health expenditure generated a decline in saving rate of 0.9 percentage points. We then estimate a model of household decisions to evaluate the mechanisms behind the decline. We find that the rise in health expenses and drop in saving rate are driven by progress in health technology, reduction in copayment rates, and improvements in income processes.