Turning local: Home-bias dynamics of relocating foreigners

Using comprehensive data from Denmark, we study private investors’ preferences for domestic stocks. We compare the equity home bias of foreigners recently relocated to Denmark to the equity home bias of other investors. We find that home bias of recently relocated foreigners is lower than home bias of other investors. Our main result is that when relocated foreigners’ duration of stay increases, their home bias also increases. After 7–8 years, home bias of relocated foreigners does not differ from home bias of other investors. Our results imply that familiarity with domestic stocks develops dynamically with the length of stay in a given country. We discuss implications for explanations of the home-bias puzzle building on information asymmetries.     

A model of biased intermediation

We study situations in which consumers rely on a biased intermediary's advice when choosing among sellers. We introduce the notion that sellers' and consumers' payoffs can be congruent or conflicting, and show that this has important implications for the effects of bias. Under congruence, the firm benefiting from bias has an incentive to offer a better deal than its rival and consumers can be better‐off than under no bias. Under conflict, the favored firm offers lower utility, and bias harms consumers. We study various policies for dealing with bias and show that their efficacy also depends on whether the payoffs exhibit congruence or conflict.     

Carry Trades,Order Flow,and the Forward Bias Puzzle

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time‐varying risk premium consistent with that bias. Using 10 years of data on FX order flow, we find that more than half of the forward bias is accounted for by order flow—with the rest being explained by expectational errors. We also find that carry trading increases currency‐crash risk in that order flow generates negative skewness in FX returns.     

The Delisting Bias in CRSP's Nasdaq Data and Its Implications for the Size Effect

We investigate the bias in CRSP's Nasdaq data due to missing returns for delisted stocks. We find that the missing returns are large and negative on average, and that delisted stocks experience a substantial decrease in liquidity. We estimate that using a corrected return of −55 percent for missing performance-related delisting returns corrects the bias. We revisit previous work which finds a size effect among Nasdaq stocks. After correcting for the delisting bias, there is no evidence that there ever was a size effect on Nasdaq. Our results are inconsistent with most risk-based explanations of the size effect.     

Implications of biased reporting: conservative and liberal accounting policies in oligopolies

We examine the effects of biased (conservative or liberal) reporting on product market competition. Cournot duopolists observe either firm-specific or industry-wide shocks and provide noisy reports subject to an exogenous mandated bias attributed to public policy. Given neutral prior beliefs, either a conservative bias or a liberal bias enhances overall reporting-system informativeness as measured by the reduction of uncertainty. Consistent with previously established effects in the information sharing literature regarding increases in informativeness, we show that expected industry profits and expected consumer surplus may gain or lose from bias, depending on whether the shocks are firm-specific or industry-wide and the degree of product competition. Expected social welfare, however, always increases in bias, irrespective of the source of uncertainty and product substitutability or complementarity. We next consider a setting where firms self-select whether to bias reports and characterize regions of potential conflict with a public policy that maximizes expected social welfare. Further results on the differential effects of conservative or liberal bias follow from relaxing the assumption of neutral prior beliefs.     

International portfolio diversification and the home bias puzzle

We review the literature on equity home bias, a phenomenon stating that investors do not hold enough foreign equities for an optimally diversified portfolio. We begin by defining the home bias measurement and reviewing related evidence on the bias. Further, we consider four explanations for this puzzling phenomenon: barriers to foreign investment, country-specific risks, information asymmetry, and cultural and behavioral factors. We analyze the related theoretical arguments and empirical findings of prior studies within each explanation. Based on the discussion of previous studies, several avenues for future research are suggested. (JEL G11, G15, F41)     

Home sweet home: Home bias and international diversification among individual investors

A striking feature of international portfolio investment is the extent to which equity portfolios are concentrated in the domestic market of the investor. We investigate differences in home bias on an individual level by studying portfolios formed as a part of the new defined contribution pension plan in Sweden. We estimate the likelihood of home bias and use individuals’ demographic and socioeconomic features as explanatory variables. Our findings indicate that the likelihood of home bias is caused by both rational and irrational factors. Moreover, we relate home bias to investors’ desire to hedge against inflation, sophistication and overconfidence.     

The currency composition of firms' balance sheets,asset value correlations,and capital requirements

We extend the Tasche (2007) model on the asset correlation bias caused by a currency mismatch between assets and liabilities to the more realistic situation where just some assets and liabilities are denominated in a foreign currency. To test the significance of the remaining bias we rely on a unique database constructed by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) containing time-series of the asset and liability currency composition of firms in some Latin American countries. We find that the asset correlation bias and associated underestimations of Basel II capital charges are economically significant even when we account for the actual (partial) currency mismatch.     

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias

We analyze optimal monetary policy in a small open economy characterized by home bias in consumption. Peculiar to our framework is the application of a Ramsey-type analysis to a model of the recent open-economy New Keynesian literature. We show that home bias in consumption is a sufficient condition for inducing the monetary policymaker of an open economy to deviate from a strategy of strict markup stabilization and contemplate some (optimal) degree of exchange rate stabilization. We focus on the optimal setting of policy both in the case of firms setting prices one period in advance and in a gradual fashion subject to adjustment costs. While the first setup allows us to analytically highlight home bias as an independent source of equilibrium markup variability, the second setup allows to study the effects of future expectations on the optimal policy problem and the effect of home bias on optimal inflation volatility. The latter, in particular, is shown to be related to the degree of trade openness in a U-shaped fashion, whereas exchange rate volatility is monotonically decreasing in openness.     

What Determines the Domestic Bias and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide

We examine how mutual funds from 26 developed and developing countries allocate their investment between domestic and foreign equity markets and what factors determine their asset allocations worldwide. We find robust evidence that these funds, in aggregate, allocate a disproportionately larger fraction of investment to domestic stocks. Results indicate that the stock market development and familiarity variables have significant, but asymmetric, effects on the domestic bias (domestic investors overweighting the local markets) and foreign bias (foreign investors under or overweighting the overseas markets), and that economic development, capital controls, and withholding tax variables have significant effects only on the foreign bias.     

Effect of Analysts' Optimism on Estimates of the Expected Rate of Return Implied by Earnings Forecasts

Recent literature has used analysts' earnings forecasts, which are known to be optimistic, to estimate implied expected rates of return, yielding upwardly biased estimates. We estimate that the bias, computed as the difference between the estimates of the implied expected rate of return based on analysts' earnings forecasts and estimates based on current earnings realizations, is 2.84%. The importance of this bias is illustrated by the fact that several extant studies estimate an equity premium in the vicinity of 3%, which would be eliminated by the removal of the bias. We illustrate the point that cross‐sample differences in the bias may lead to the erroneous conclusion that cost of capital differs across these samples by showing that analysts' optimism, and hence, bias in the implied estimates of the expected rate of return, differs with firm size and with analysts' recommendation. As an important aside, we show that the bias in a value‐weighted estimate of the implied equity premium is 1.60% and that the unbiased value‐weighted estimate of this premium is 4.43%.     

Sample-Dependent Results Using Accounting and Market Data: Some Evidence

Studies relating accounting and price data often use the COMPUSTAT or related PDE data base as the source for the accounting data. This practice may introduce a look-ahead bias and an ex-post-selection bias into the study. We examine this problem by comparing results from the standard COMPUSTAT data base with those from a data base which suffers from neither bias. We find that rates of return from portfolios chosen on the basis of accounting data from the two data bases differ significantly. Further, we find that these differences imply different conclusions when we test a specific hypothesis relating accounting and price data. Finally, we propose a number of remedies which may reduce the bias when the standard COMPUSTAT data base is used.     

Bias in estimating the systematic risk of extreme performers: Implications for financial analysis, the leverage effect, and long-run reversals

We show how bias can arise systematically in the beta estimates of extreme performers when long-run return reversals are present and partly, or wholly, due to sign changes in unanticipated factor realizations. Our evidence is consistent with this bias being responsible for the large shifts in the beta estimates of extreme performers, more so than the leverage effect, which has been the predominant explanation in prior literature. Bias in these contemporaneous realized betas, estimated with the same returns that are to be risk adjusted, arises due to the general problem of “overconditioning,” where betas are estimated conditional on information that is not yet known. Several methods for conditioning betas on out-of-sample returns are evaluated and found to be lacking, although some offer improvement under certain circumstances. We also show evidence of this bias in the Fama-French Three-factor loadings of extreme performers. Our findings indicate not only that previous studies of long-run reversals understate contrarian profits but that bias is prevalent in the OLS beta estimates of extreme performers, and this has implications for estimating the cost of capital and measuring long-run performance. We offer recommendations for identifying when this bias is likely present, as well as general methods to correct for it.     

Jackknifing Bond Option Prices

Prices of interest rate derivative securities depend cruciallyon the mean reversion parameters of the underlying diffusions.These parameters are subject to estimation bias when standardmethods are used. The estimation bias can be substantial evenin very large samples and much more serious than the discretizationbias, and it translates into a bias in pricing bond optionsand other derivative securities that is important in practicalwork. This article proposes a very general and computationallyinexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on Quenouille's(1956; Biometrika, 43, 353–360) jackknife. We show howthe method can be applied directly to the options price itselfas well as the coefficients in the models. We investigate itsperformance in a Monte Carlo study. Empirical applications toU.S. dollar swap rates highlight the differences between bondand option prices implied by the jackknife procedure and thoseimplied by the standard approach. These differences are largeand suggest that bias reduction in pricing options is importantin practical applications.     

An Adjustment Procedure for Predicting Betas When Thin Trading is Present: Canadian Evidence

We have incorporated effects of the process that generates true betas for TSE stocks, as well as thin trading effects, into the beta adjustment model. We note the Blume and Dimson and Marsh beta adjustment techniques aim at eliminating beta forecast error through regression tendency bias. Effects of other sources of forecast error have been ignored. We show the process generating security betas affects both cross-sectional correlation coefficient and order bias, while thin trading affects only cross-sectional correlation coefficient. We demonstrate that when OLS beta estimates are used to forecast their future risk levels, order bias accounts for 86% of forecast error, while thin trading effects account for 14% of forecast error. A beta regression tendency model which properly accounts for effects of cross-sectional correlation (which is a function of thin trading) and order bias completely abates forecast error. Our results have implications for the use of correlation coefficient to measure stability of betas across time, for beta adjustment models proposed in the literature, and for event study methodologies that rely on prediction errors.     

Contracting with Present-Biased Consumers in Insurance Markets

Present bias challenges consumers with self-control problems when they implement precautionary efforts in insurance markets. To explore how rational insurance companies respond to this bias, this paper analyzes a contract design problem in a monopolistic insurance market with ex ante moral hazard. We consider two types of consumers with this bias: the “naifs”, who do not foresee the present bias and make decisions in a myopic way, and the “sophisticates”, who foresee the bias and incorporate it in the decision process. Relative to the benchmark case where consumers are time-consistent, we show that (i) present bias reduces the monopoly profit, regardless of the consumer type; (ii) present bias can either reduce or increase the coverage of the profit-maximizing insurance contract depending on the extent of the bias; and (iii) when present bias is severe, the insurance company can profitably exploit naifs but not sophisticates. These results still hold when consumers are heterogeneous and their types are unknown to the insurance company.     

Earnings Smoothing,Executive Compensation,and Corporate Governance: Evidence From the Property–Liability Insurance Industry

Unlike studies that estimate managerial bias, we utilize a direct measure of managerial bias in the U.S. insurance industry to investigate the effects of executive compensation and corporate governance on firms’ earnings management behaviors. We find managers receiving larger bonuses and stock awards tend to make reserving decisions that serve to decrease firm earnings. Moreover, we examine the monitoring effect of corporate board structures in mitigating managers’ reserve manipulation practices. We find managers are more likely to manipulate reserves in the presence of particular board structures. Similar results are not found when we employ traditional estimated measures of managerial bias.     

What factors affect behavioral biases? Evidence from Turkish individual stock investors

This paper investigates behavioral biases among Turkish individual stock investors during 2011. Using transaction data, we analyze how common disposition effect, familiarity bias, representativeness heuristic, and status quo bias are, what factors affect these biases and how these biases relate to each other including overconfidence and return performance. We find that biases are common among investors. Male, younger investors, investors with lower portfolio value, and investors in low income, low education regions exhibit more familiarity bias. Female, older investors and investors with high portfolio values are more subject to disposition effect and representativeness heuristic. Individuals in the opposite edge of overconfidence are subject to status quo bias. Overconfidence is positively correlated with familiarity bias. Representativeness heuristic deteriorates wealth while status quo bias results in higher trade performance. Familiarity bias has a nonmonotonic effect on return; lower (higher) levels of familiarity bias have a negative (positive) effect on return. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the few studies that focus on nationwide data and analyze the biases simultaneously. Using a unique dataset, we extend the findings of the behavioral finance literature to emerging markets. Besides, analysis of multiple biases helps us better understand the relationship among biases.     

Conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations

Brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommendcompanies that their firms have recently taken public. We showthat stocks that underwriter analysts recommend perform morepoorly than 'buy' recommendations by unaffiliated brokers priorto, at the time of, and subsequent to the recommendation date.We conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analystsshow significant evidence of bias. We show also that the marketdoes not recognize the full extent of this bias. The resultssuggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the differentfunctions that investment bankers perform.     

An improved estimation method and empirical properties of the probability of informed trading

We report evidence that boundary solutions can cause a bias in the estimate of the probability of informed trading (PIN). We develop an algorithm to overcome this bias and use it to estimate PIN for nearly 80,000 stock-quarters between 1993 and 2004. We obtain two sets of PIN estimates by using the factorized likelihood functions in both [Easley et al., 2010] and [Lin and Ke, 2011], respectively. We find that the estimate based on the EHO factorization is systematically smaller than the estimate based on the LK factorization, meaning that there is a downward bias associated with the EHO factorization. In addition, we find that boundary solutions appear with a very high frequency when the LK factorization is used. Thus it is necessary to use the LK factorization together with the algorithm in this paper. At last, we document several interesting empirical properties of PIN.