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本文将层次分析法这一多目标评价决策方法应用于目标众多、因素复杂的股票投资决策,将投资者对复杂系统的评价决策思维过程数学化,并以四只房地产股票为例,建立了层次分析结构模型,通过引入具体数据计算出四只股票的投资价值排序,研究结果表明该方法对投资者进行股票投资决策有一定参考意义。 相似文献
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处置效应是指投资者倾向于卖出盈利而保留亏损的非理性行为,本文以某5只开放式股票型基金的43.7万个人账户在2005年9月-2011年12月的交易数据为样本,采用含有依时协变量的COX生存分析法,对基金投资者的处置效应及其个体差异进行了检验。实证研究发现:(1)我国基金投资者整体上表现出明显的处置效应,COX比例风险回归分析结果显示盈利基金被卖出的可能性显著小于亏损基金。控制基金投资者的个体差异(性别、年龄、地域、开户渠道)之后,处置效应仍然显著存在;(2)基金投资者的处置效应在个体层面有如下差异:男性投资者比女性的处置效应要弱,年轻的投资者(35岁以下)处置效应较弱,开户于证券公司的投资者较开户于银行的投资者处置效应弱,处于一线城市(北上广深)的投资者相比其他地区投资者处置效应更强;(3)更换参考点以及控制理性因素如均值回复等之后,基金投资者的处置效应仍然存在。 相似文献
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处置效应是指投资者过早卖出盈利股票而长期持有亏损股票的现象。大量文献表明金融市场投资者存在显著的处置效应,但其产生的原因和机理存在争议。本文在前景理论框架下,构建了包含投资者非理性预期的离散时间投资组合决策模型,发现处置效应随投资者情绪升高而减弱。本文使用我国某券商2007—2009年近177万个人投资者股票账户的交易数据进行了实证分析,得到与理论模型预测的一致结果,即投资者情绪与投资者处置效应之间呈现显著的负相关关系。而且,受情绪影响,投资者处置效应在估值难度较大的股票中更弱。本文结论对理解投资者处置效应、优化投资者卖出决策和加强资本市场基础制度建设具有一定理论和实践意义。 相似文献
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处置效应是行为金融中的一种投资心理表现.本文对处置效应的行为表现、买卖时机选择、策略的有效性进行分析.研究发现,应对投资者认知偏差的处置效应必须坚持以安全边际为原则,只有这样才能取得长期投资收益 相似文献
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2006、2007年的中国股市是火焰,2008年中国股市是海水。一轮牛市结束后,大多数投资者的结局是亏损,而且是大幅亏损。 相似文献
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随着我国股票市场的发展,财务分析在投资决策中的作用越来越重要。如何通过财务分析评估企业价值,并从而把价值评估作为投资决策的基础,成为会计界和金融界的重要问题。本文对盈余预测中存在的问题进行了探讨,建立了简洁明了的财务指标体系,并对财务指标的应用提出了个人看法。 相似文献
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已有文献证实了高管过度自信等非理性因素对企业投资决策的影响,但尚未有文献研究锚定心理在投资决策中的作用。税收政策连续性不足会使得企业实际税率充满不确定性,高管在预测未来实际税率时很可能会非理性地锚定当期的高税率,进而产生税率锚定行为。本文研究这种非理性的税率锚定行为对企业投资决策的影响,结果发现:企业投资决策中存在显著的税率锚定行为,对高税率的锚定显著降低了企业未来的投资支出,且内在锚效应(纵向对比)强于外在锚效应(横向对比)。进一步地,我们发现经验更丰富的高管有助于缓解投资中的税率锚定效应,但更大的税率波动性加剧了这种效应,最终降低了公司业绩和价值。本文研究表明,控制投资中的税率锚定行为,有利于提高投资效率和企业价值,同时也表明保持宏观税收政策连续性有利于促进企业健康可持续发展。 相似文献
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Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
For U.S. stock prices, evidence of mean reversion over long horizons is mixed, possibly due to lack of a reliable long time series. Using additional cross-sectional power gained from national stock index data of 18 countries during the period 1969 to 1996, we find strong evidence of mean reversion in relative stock index prices. Our findings imply a significantly positive speed of reversion with a half-life of three to three and one-half years. This result is robust to alternative specifications and data. Parametric contrarian investment strategies that fully exploit mean reversion across national indexes outperform buy-and-hold and standard contrarian strategies. 相似文献
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张小利 《中央财经大学学报》2006,(8):88-92
净现值和内部收益率是投资决策中最常用的两个主要指标,但是,通过深入分析我们发现,后者在满足净效益最大化决策目标、假设条件的经济合理性以及普遍适用性三个方面均存在严重缺陷,因而不是一个可靠的项目价值衡量指标,最多只能用作决策的参考,不能用作项目取舍的依据。 相似文献
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Investment Strategies and Market Structure: An Empirical Analysis of Bank Branching Decisions 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper analyzes the relationship between the competitive environment faced by depository institutions and the decisions
these institutions make regarding the size of their branch networks. Specifically, we consider branches as a sunk investment
that potentially increases utility for consumers and examine how local competition and product differentiation affect firms’
decisions regarding whether to make such investments. We account for endogenous market structure using an equilibrium structural
model, which corrects for bias caused by correlation in the unobservables associated with market structure and branching activity.
We estimate the model using data from 1,882 concentrated rural markets. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting
for market structure and product differentiation, and are consistent with a potential entry-deterring effect of bank branch
investments. 相似文献
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The effect of barriers to international investment (in the form of differential taxation) upon a firm's investment and financing decision is analyzed through a newly derived international capital asset pricing model. A firm using an improper project selection criterion which fails to account for the effect of barriers to international investment may reject a desirable project with high systematic risk, whereas it may incorrectly accept an undesirable project with low systematic risk. The financial risk premium under barriers is greater than that in the absence of barriers to international investment. In addition, the lower is the degree of barriers to international investment, the more domestic securities will gain, even when both countries impose a tax on investors of different nationality. 相似文献
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Investment Decisions and Managerial Performance Evaluation 总被引:19,自引:6,他引:13
This paper considers incentive provisions for a manager who makes investment decisions. The manager's performance measure can be based on current accounting information: cash flow, depreciation, book value, and current investment. We argue that Residual Income is the unique (linear) performance measure that achieves goal congruence, i.e., the manager accepts all positive NPV projects, and only those. If the manager has the same discount rate as the owner, the depreciation rules remain indeterminate. However, if the manager's discount rate assumes potentially a whole range of values, then a particular depreciation policy combined with Residual Income is the unique way to achieve goal congruence. 相似文献
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机构投资者之间存在着广泛的信息互动,其中包括信息共享与社会学习。本文基于2005-2018年我国A股市场与公募证券投资基金市场数据,应用社会关系网络理论实证分析了信息互动对于基金持仓决策以及股票市场价格的影响。结果表明:(1)信息互动对于基金持仓决策具有显著影响,且在不同决策情景与市场行情下其影响具有差异;(2)基金信息互动的影响可以分为“同城效应”和“异地效应”,不同城市的两种效应存在显著差异,并且不同城市基金的市场影响力也有所不同;(3)基金信息互动通过提高市场定价效率对于股价长期特质波动具有降低作用。本文基于社会关系网络理论分析了私有信息在机构投资者之间传播产生的影响,为认识机构投资者决策行为与股票市场价格异象提供了新的维度。 相似文献
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The Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Capital Structure and Investment Decisions of Indonesian Manufacturing Establishments 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
This article analyzes the consequences of financial liberalization,using a large panel of Indonesian manufacturing establishments.It discusses whether financial reforms have had an impact oninvestment and on the allocation of credit and whether the effectsdiffer depending on the type of firms. The overall conclusionis that shifting from administrative toward market-based allocationof credit has increased borrowing costs, particularly for smallerfirms, but, at the same time, has benefited firms by givingthem widened access to finance. 相似文献