A Knowledge-Based Economy: New Directions of Macromodelling

Development of “new economies” leading to economies mostly based on knowledge implies the construction of new long-term macroeconometric models. They should incorporate the impacts of new technologies being endogenized, as well as human capital. The paper discusses several issues related to the extension of the notion of production function. They cover first of all the measurement and explanation of total factor productivity (TFP), the role of domestic and foreign R&D expenditures, as well as educational expenditures. The discussion is extended to include proposals to construct new submodels explaining the sections of research and education and also the ICT industries.

Industrialization and Expectations in a Small Open Economy

The degree of industrialization in a country can be measured by the diversity of intermediate goods produced in the country. I construct a small-country model in which this diversity is determined endogenously in the process of industrialization. My model shows that the character istics of equilibria depend on the substitutability among intermediate goods; particularly when the substitutability is large, there may be multiple equilibria. When such equilibria exist, optimistic expectations lead to a high degree of industrialization but pessimistic expectations yield a low degree of industrialization.
JEL Classification Numbers: O14, F43, F12     

知识经济时代企业网络管理对传统管理的创新与变革

知识经济时代的企业管理将高度知识化、信息化和市场化，网络的共享和开放将使企业的传统管理全面迈向“网络管理”。网络管理为传统的企业管理注入了一种高精神、新组织、新理念，对企业管理的方方面面带来了巨大冲击。引发了企业传统管理的创新与变革。     

Rational Expectations and the Defris-Williams Inflationary Expectations Series*

This paper evaluates the Defris-Williams inflationary expectations series as a measure of rational expectations for the period 1973(1) to 1980(2). The results show that the series violates the rationality criterion, being an inefficient and biased predictor of inflation. By constructing an ‘information-augmented’ D-W series, the quantitative importance of omitted information available to consumers at the time of making their forecasts is isolated. The key omitted economic variables are found to be lagged monetary growth and unemployment or an indexation dummy which explains 70 percent of the forecast error of the D-W series. These results suggest that a theoretically constructed expectations series may prove to be a superior measure of market expectations of inflation in Australia.     

迎接知识经济,搞好图书馆建设

本文根据知识经济对现代图书馆提出的新要求,提出搞好图书馆建设的几点设想:实现图书馆管理方式的彻底转变;强化图书馆的教育职能;强化图书馆的教学科研服务职能;加快信息技术在图书馆应用的步伐;提高图书馆管理人员的素质。     

战略导向下知识基础论研究的贡献与争论

随着知识在企业生产经营中作用的提高,知识基础论应运而生。知识基础论的理论和思想可以为企业战略问题的解决提供系统分析框架。一方面,知识基础论既是一种演化企业理论,为企业本质提供独到的见解;另一方面,它也因没有明确诠释企业的关键维度,还是一种发展不完善的理论。在回顾西方知识基础论现有文献的基础上,探究了西方知识基础论在整个企业战略理论体系发展过程中的贡献及引发的争论。     

知识型企业留住核心员工的对策

本文分析了知识型企业核心员工流失的原因，通过对其满意度调查问卷的统计分析，找出造成流失的主要影响因素，在此基础上提出了知识型企业留住核心员工的具体对策，重点是建立高层次需求激励机制。     

Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data*

We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus Economics data for expected inflation and output growth, and compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. We find that the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification, the coefficient of realized inflation is not significantly different from zero.     

Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies

A fundamentals based monetary policy rule, which would be the optimal monetary policy without commitment when private agents have perfectly rational expectations, is unstable if in fact these agents follow standard adaptive learning rules. This problem can be overcome if private expectations are observed and suitably incorporated into the policy maker's optimal rule. These strong results extend to the case in which there is simultaneous learning by the policy maker and the private agents. Our findings show the importance of conditioning policy appropriately, not just on fundamentals, but also directly on observed household and firm expectations.     

Expectations and the Black Market Premium

The purpose of this paper is to gain a better understanding of the black market premium—the percentage differential between the black market and the official exchange rate. Tests are used to see whether the black market premium responds to variations in expectations about the official exchange rate in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Expectations of devaluation do cause movements in the black market premium for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico but this behavior is not observed for Colombia. Colombian economic agents seem less sensitive to expected returns. This perhaps explains the relatively flat black market premium series observed for Colombia.     

CALS和知识军事条件下的装备保障

深入研究了CALS产生的背景及发展历程,并通过其在实际中的应用成果剖析了其深刻内涵,在此基础上,结合知识军事和知识军事条件下装备保障的特点,分析了CALS对装备保障的影响,认为CALS将积极推动知识军事条件下装备保障向着精确化的方向发展。     

Expectations equilibrium and informational efficiency for stochastic environments

This paper studies the existence of expectations equilibria for message processes on stochastic exchange environments. A message process which permits the general existence of expectations equilibria is termed admissible. The main results are: (1) Every admissible process satisfies a weakened version of the Hurwicz “privacy” condition. (2) The competitive process is admissible, and has a message space of locally minimal size among admissible nonwasteful processes. (3) The only admissible condensations of the competitive process are constant functions.     

财经类院校开办竞争情报专业的可行性分析

市场经济竞争的加剧,使得竞争情报工作成为企业战略谋划、核心竞争力构建的必要先决条件。随着竞争情报工作的重要性不断提升,市场上对竞争情报人员的需求也因此急速上升。在企业情报人才需求员大于供给的行情下,发挥财经类院校职业定向明确、知识结构实用、办学机制灵活等特征,以市场需求为导向,不失时机地开设企业情报专业,强化职业特色办学。这对满足社会需要、推动院校自身发展来说,都是一项明智的选择。     

Qualitatively Rational Expectations and Adjustment in the Specific-Factors Model

This paper considers adjustment in a dynamic specific-factors model with endogenous capital stocks. Investment is analyzed under the assumption that expectations are rational with respect to qualitative aspects of the adjustment process (qualitatively rational expectations, QRE). QRE leave considerable scope for systematic errors in expectations formation. Adjustment under rational expectations is similar to QRE adjustment; however, only in the former case is the speed of adjustment optimal. Overshooting of capital stocks is possible and may be optimal. Comparative-static analysis shows an asymmetry between inflows of labor and capital: only capital inflows may cause a Rybczynski effect.     

经济全球化背景下的大学科技园管理模式探讨

着眼于大学科技园的长远发展,通过对国内外大学科技园各种管理模式的详细分析,结合我国高校和大学科技园中存在的问题,提出大学科技园的管理模式和管理策略。