Learning with futures to realise progress towards sustainability: The WBCSD Vision 2050 Initiative

This paper addresses the limited evidence of how futures work bears fruit in the present by exploring a specific, yet significant, empirical case study. The results of our longitudinal study into the WBCSD Vision 2050 Initiative shed light on how organisations are harnessing the perspective of the long term future to identify what can and should be done in the near term to keep progress towards sustainability on track. We provide evidence of the expected and realised benefits of this collaborative futures initiative. These benefits extend beyond direct decision support, manifest at multiple levels and vary over time. We note that shift from single client to collaborative futures work is inherent to addressing sustainability challenges and call for more research into how collaborative futures practices are evolving to deal with new puzzles and wicked problems.     

The Elasticity of Taxable Income in New Zealand*

This paper reports estimates of the elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net‐of‐tax rate for New Zealand taxpayers. The relative stability of the New Zealand personal income tax system, in terms of marginal rates, thresholds and the tax base, provides helpful conditions for deriving these estimates. The elasticity of taxable income was estimated to be substantially higher for the highest income groups. Changes in the timing of income flows for the higher income recipients were found to be an important response to the announcement of a new higher rate bracket. The marginal welfare costs of personal income taxation were consistent across years, being relatively small for all but the higher tax brackets. For the top marginal rate bracket of 39 per cent, the welfare cost of raising an extra dollar of tax revenue was estimated to be well in excess of a dollar. Implications of the findings are that: disincentive effects of high top marginal rates can be substantial even when labour supply responses are small; the welfare costs of increases in top marginal tax rates can be high; and announcement effects of tax policy changes can lead to considerable income shifting between time periods.     

The arms race as a hypergame: A study of routes towards a safer world

There are many possible explanations for the current arms race, some incompatible, some complementary. Here, the hypergame approach is used to present some simple alternative models, reflecting different perceptions that might underlie national behaviour. The possibility that each side in the race is primarily motivated by genuine fear of the other is considered, and then the question of why such a cycle of distrust may be so difficult to break. It is argued that many faulty decisions result not from incompetent analysis, but through inadequate problem definition — ‘asking the wrong question’. Practical consequences of this argument are outlined.     

Dividend Imputation and Shareholder Wealth: The Case of New Zealand

On April 1, 1988, New Zealand stopped the double taxation of dividends by implementing a full dividend imputation program. Because many believed that the tax advantage of debt had led to more highly leveraged firms subject to greater financial risk than was socially optimal, it was hoped the removal of incentives to finance with debt would result in a more efficient allocation of capital. The empirical results suggest that the shareholder wealth gain from dividend imputation was more than offset in firms with large debt levels. Moreover, an examination of debt ratios indicates debt levels declined in the post–imputation period.     

The pricing of bank bill futures and FRA contracts in New Zealand

This study examines pricing in the bank bill futures and forward rate agreement (FRA) markets. The study finds (i) the bill futures market is more transactionally efficient than the FRA market, and (ii) the unbiased expectations hypothesis generates more accurate estimates of bill futures and FRA yields than the cost of carry hypothesis. The first result reflects impediments to FRA market arbitrage such as illiquidity, minimum trade sizes and credit limits. The second result contradicts US evidence but is consistent with the leading role played by the bank bill and interbank dealers in New Zealand interest rate markets.     

Casemix Management in a New Zealand Hospital: Rationalisation and Resistance

This paper discusses the use of a 'casemix' information system to rationalise and scrutinise clinical activity in a corporatised New Zealand hospital. The implementation of the casemix system was part of a management strategy to influence clinician behaviour by making visible the financial implications of clinical decisions. Clinicians were able to resist the application of this comparative surveillance system by challenging or diverting the information produced.     

The determinants of corporate sustainability performance

This paper investigates the factors that drive high levels of corporate sustainability performance (CSP), as proxied by membership of the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index. Using a stakeholder framework, we examine the incentives for US firms to invest in sustainability principles and develop a number of hypotheses that relate CSP to firm‐specific characteristics. Our results indicate that leading CSP firms are significantly larger, have higher levels of growth and a higher return on equity than conventional firms. Contrary to our predictions, leading CSP firms do not have greater free cash flows or lower leverage than other firms.     

Innovations in savings schemes: The bonus bonds trust in New Zealand

Bonus Bonds were introduced into New Zealand in March 1970 based on the Premium Bond savings scheme operating in the United Kingdom. A Bonus Bond is a unit in the Bonus Bonds Trust with all income from the trust's conservative investments being balloted for on a monthly basis by the bond holders. This paper looks at the history and operation of the Bonus Bonds savings scheme in New Zealand and examines why it has such wide appeal for New Zealanders. The paper also addresses the following aspects of the scheme. Performance of the bonds; their level of success as a savings vehicle; factors contributing to their relative success over time; the risk profile of the bond holders. The major findings of the paper are that investors in Bonus Bonds have little appreciation of real values and they view the bonds as an appropriate investment for risk averse investors.     

The Existence and Composition of Audit Committees in the New Zealand Public Sector

This study investigates the association between the source of funding of New Zealand public‐sector entities (PSEs) and the existence and composition of their audit committees. We examine 134 PSEs in the health, local government and tertiary sectors. Of these PSEs, 81 (60%) have an audit committee. The size of the audit committees are on average larger than recommended by best practice guidelines. However, most of the PSEs comply with guidelines recommended for audit committee independence but not financial expertise. PSEs with higher levels of government funding are more likely to establish audit committees and PSEs that rely on funding from rate payers and debt providers are more likely to have audit committees with a majority of independent members. There is no support for the association between the source of funding and the level of financial expertise on audit committees.     

The role of Chinese economic variables on Australian and New Zealand equity returns

This study investigates the explanatory power of Chinese economic variables on Australian and New Zealand equity returns. Results suggest that Chinese economic variables have significant explanatory power for both market‐level and industry‐level portfolio returns. Our results are robust when using the principal component analysis (PCA) approach. We also find the predictive power is stronger for the post‐FTA period. In addition, the out‐of‐sample analysis confirms our previous results, suggesting that Chinese economic variables contain incremental information when estimating Australian and New Zealand equity market returns. We believe our findings have important implications for investors and policymakers in both countries.     

Cross-sectional determinants of New Zealand share market returns

We present evidence of the cross-sectional relation between security returns, beta, firm size and book-to-market ratio over the period 1971 to 1993 on the New Zealand sharemarket. Our results suggest that the NZSE-40 market index is not a mean-variance efficient market proxy—the betas calculated with respect to it being of little use for explaining expected returns cross-sectionally. Also, there is a significant positive relation between book-to-market ratio and average return.     

Frontiers of Non-Financial Performance Reporting in New Zealand

In 1989, legislation in New Zealand introduced requirements for non-financial performance information in the public sector to be reported and audited. This paper describes the initial responses of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of New Zealand and the Audit Office to this challenge and examines their further development following a decade of experience.     

Influence of weather on New Zealand financial securities

The present study examines the influence of four independent facets of the local weather in the two major cities of New Zealand on the interest rates of bank bills and government bonds and the returns of stock indices. Factor analysis of the local weather variables generates four independent facets measuring temperature, sunshine, wind in Auckland and wind in Wellington. The analysis is based on a repeated measures design. Two results, which are consistent within a given financial security, are observed. The prices of bank bills are positively influenced by the level of the sunshine factor. The prices of stock indices are negatively influenced by the level of the Wellington wind factor. The influence of the level of sunshine on the returns of stock indices is susceptible to two interpretations.     

Contrarian Investing in a Small Capitalization Market: Evidence from New Zealand

This paper investigates the performance of accounting–based contrarian investment strategies in the New Zealand market. The return patterns of these strategies are then related to risk–based and behavioral–based explanations of the contrarian anomaly. Based on our analysis of the risk–return characteristics of the various strategies, we attribute the first year underperformance and second year outperformance of the value portfolios to expectational errors caused by noise trading in the relatively illiquid New Zealand market. The longer two–year correction process is in contrast to the much larger and more developed U.S. and Japanese markets, where value stock price corrections have been found to occur more rapidly. This provides support for the conjecture that longer horizons are required for value strategies to pay off in imperfectly competitive markets than in competitive markets.     

Frontiers of Non-Financial Performance Reporting in New Zealand

In 1989, legislation in New Zealand introduced requirements for non-financial performance information in the public sector to be reported and audited. This paper describes the initial responses of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of New Zealand and the Audit Office to this challenge and examines their further development following a decade of experience.     

The relationship between capital structure and product markets: evidence from New Zealand

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the capital structure of New Zealand firms influences their product-market performance in the period from 1984 to 2008. Our main findings are that the use of leverage by publicly listed New Zealand companies leads to an increase in relative-to-industry sales growth, but a decrease in relative-to-industry return on assets (ROA). We also conduct a reverse causality test by examining whether sales growth and ROA influence leverage. We find no evidence that sales growth has an impact on the use of debt, but significant evidence that ROA is negatively correlated with its use. Our results suggest that New Zealand firms use debt to compete more aggressively in their product markets, even though this strategy comes at a cost of lower relative-to-industry profitability. A possible explanation for this behavior is the more competitive trading environment that has developed in New Zealand over the last 25 years.     

The transmodern hypothesis: towards a dialogue of cultures

For a Brussels Seminar at the European Commission, a “double hypothesis” was proposed: that we are in transition to a transmodern way of thinking that combines intuition and spirituality with rational brainwork; and that 21st century conflicts will likely be not between religions or cultures but within them, between premodern, modern, and transmodern worldviews. Non-Western thinkers find this framework useful: it opens a door to criticism of the worst aspects of modernity without being “anti-Western”. Western reactions are more mixed, some critics wanting to maintain a high fence between religion and governance, others welcoming the transmodern concept as helpful in relating states to religions, and in analyzing conflicts involving beliefs about belief. “Transmodernity” turns out to be a rich tool of analysis, with important implications for European foreign policy in the century to come.     

Management accounting texts in New Zealand: the need for a paradigm shift

This paper questions the dominance in textbooks of a management accounting grounded largely in neo-classical economics and scientific management. In New Zealand the most popular textbook used in introductory management accounting courses is Horngren and Foster's Cost Accounting - a Managerial Emphasis.The current seventh edition of the text, although extensively used, is not regarded as adequate for the purpose by many New Zealand educators. The text is seen as being rootd firmly in the traditional understandings of the role of management accounting which are subject to increasing challenge. Other popular texts which are influencing the content of management accounting courses also are reviewed. We conclude that, despite much criticism over many years, modern textbooks have failed to evolve; change is overdue.