Cities and environment in the twenty-first century: A future-oriented synthesis after Habitat II

A gigantic urban revolution is under way today: in 40 years, the equivalent of 1000 cities, each of three million inhabitants, will have to be built. In 2005, half of the world's population will live in cities. This growth will be concentrated in major cities, most of them in the South. This article reviews some fundamental trends, challenges and possible solutions in environment-related fields such as water, transports, energy. It argues for the emergence of a new urban culture based on the adoption of sustainable urban consumption patterns, new urban partnerships and the strengthening of urban solidarities. It gives examples of practical solutions within our reach for humanizing cities in the 21st century.     

Finally: A withering away of cities?

Forecasters and science fiction writers have long predicted the demise of the city. It is argued that, with the cost of telecommunication likely to fall to near zero, one of the main reasons for agglomeration in cities will disappear and that the result will be a withering away of cities. This essay considers the likelihood of revolutionary change in the urban landscape and the implications for research by urban scholars.     

Future cities in a warming world

More than half the global population are already urban, and the UN and other organisations expect this share to rise in future. However, some researchers argue that the future of cities is far from assured. Cities are not only responsible for 70% or more of the world's CO₂ emissions, but because of their dense concentration of physical assets and populations, are also more vulnerable than other areas to climate change. This paper attempts to resolve this controversy by first looking at how cities would fare in a world with average global surface temperatures 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. It then looks at possible responses, either by mitigation or adaptation, to the threat such increases would entail. Regardless of the mix of adaptation and mitigation cities adopt in response to climate change, the paper argues that peak urbanism will occur over the next few decades. This fall in the urban share of global population will be driven by the rise in biophysical hazards in cities if the response is mainly adaptation, and by the declining attraction of cities (and possibly the rising attraction of rural areas) if serious mitigation is implemented.     

US cities in transformation : Urban policy in an advanced economy

This article reports on the main findings of the work of the US National Research Council Committee on National Urban Policy. The committee concluded that the most important single force affecting the future of US cities was the structural transformation of the international and national economies. A new urban system is emerging in the USA, fuelled importantly by the growth of service and knowledge-based industries. Future urban policy in the USA should be incremental in nature-the efficacy of policies and institutional reforms will have to be judged in light of how well they address the impact of economic and market forces on urban areas.     

Large-scale participatory co-shaping of technological developments: First experiments with PARDIZIPP

A future-oriented participatory procedure on the basis of the Delphi method was developed and empirically tested a first time with the goal to improve the shaping of technological developments. The technology under study here was micro-electronics or rather their relationship with labor and the test took place in NorthRhine–Westphalia.Today problems exist in all walks of life. There is a lot of talk about today's problems as if they were new, though one has heard similar arguments throughout history. How do we assess if we are really in danger of bringing the world to an end? Although this danger appears real, it would not be the first time in history that people have thought and felt like this—However, one thing that is new are the consequences of modern sciences and technology, which are not suited to given social and environmental requirements. They have given rise to questions concerning the quality of the decision-makers. The questioning of many of these decisions has increased for some time and is now getting more and more specific, with a demand for quality and information rather than managerial skills and competitiveness from the decision-makers. The term `decision-maker' describes those who determine the application of technology, science and technical equipment which has either existed for a long time already or has recently been developed.—It is not easy to change the structures and processes of decision-making so that new structures and processes will be more suited to social and environmental requirements. We have tested our ideas as to how this could be done, in an empirical project. Although we called it `Project NRW–2000', it would probably be better described as an experiment.²—We persuaded 90 ordinary people to participate in this project as `experts on daily life and work'. This group was asked to work in six regional sub-groups and discuss, with reference to three given normative societal scenarios for the year 2020, the relationship between microelectronics and labour markets of the year 2020, on the basis of a participatory Delphi procedure. Before we elaborate on the concept of our project in Section 3, we would like to outline it in terms of the mainstream of the sociology of technology as well as with research on `acceptance' in Section 1. In Section 2we will briefly illustrate the framework of the research programme `Socially Oriented Shaping of Technology' of the state of Northrhine–Westphalia, which funded our research project. Section 4particularly deals with the participatory elements of our project, while Section 5is devoted to the development of the scenarios. Section 6sums up the results of the `scenario-construction'. Regarding specific elements, we restrict ourselves to topics concerning technology, labour, and the relationship between women workers/employees and technology. As a final outlook we deal with the political implications of our approach. All that is left is to remind our readers that we regard this project as a first application or experiment within our overall approach.     

二元经济结构下我国新型农村资本支持体系研究

长期以来,我国在二元经济结构的基础上形成了二元资本结构,农村资本通过各种渠道不合理地流向城市;在市场机制作用下,资本趋利性使资本外流进一步加剧,在农村形成了巨大的资本缺口,致使城乡经济发展失衡.在现有的二元经济结构下,必须构建新型的农村资本支持体系,该体系主要由财政支持体系、价格支持体系、金融支持体系、集体和农户支持体系以及国际资本支持体系等部分有机组成.通过构建农村资本支持体系,最终消除城乡二元资本结构,建立城乡统一的资本支持体系,促进城乡经济的协调发展,实现我国经济的全面小康.     

Environmental flows: Telecommunications and the dematerialisation of cities?

This paper explores the relationship between telecommunications systems and urban environmental policy. It challenges the powerful, and often taken for granted, assumption that telecommunications improve the environmental performance of cities because the technologies are ‘inherently environmentally benign’ and that they simply ‘substitute’ for travel, inevitably leading towards the dematerialisation of the contemporary city. Instead the paper argues that telecommunications raise serious environmental problems and act as powerful materialisers, particularly as a generator of new demands for travel. It shows that the environmental implications of telecommunications are undoubtedly more complex and contradictory than is often assumed.     

The Role of Finance and Private Investment in Developing Sustainable Cities

Three trends will drive urban investment, development, and entrepreneurship in the next two decades. The first is urbanization; over the next twenty years, the number of people living in cities will double. Second, shared resources like clean water, clean air, energy, and places to put solid waste are already scarce, and urbanization will only exacerbate shortages. Third, almost no local or national government can mobilize both the capital and the political consensus to make investments in the infrastructure that will lead to more effective use of these resources. This article argues that there is a largely unrecognized opportunity for the private sector to engage in selective investments that can help cities limit the effects of these trends. Investors and entrepreneurs can make money in ways that achieve more productive use of these scarce “public goods;” and by so doing, they can make cities more economically competitive as well as more livable. In making his argument, the author provides a tour of three “new” Asian cities, two of which are held up as models for future development.     

Cities of the imagination: Science fiction, urban space, and community engagement in urban planning

Stories, dreams, histories and myths, Michel de Certeau argues, connect people to particular places and makes place concrete and inhabitable. These narratives generate an imaginary, poetic geography that haunts the abstract city of street maps and development plans, and makes it socially meaningful. This paper is concerned with one particular kind of story-telling - science fiction - and its relationship with the city, urban planning, and questions of community engagement. The paper argues that the ‘cities of the imagination’ generated by science fiction and other forms of narrative provide a powerful means of understanding, communicating and enriching the connections to place in urban communities. Moreover, science fiction is often characterised by its ability to explore the future of cities. This gives the genre a fascinating and potentially useful resonance with urban planning as a discourse and set of practices; and, in particular, strategies for engaging communities in the design process and, thus, designing for future social sustainability. These ideas will be tested through a reading of near-future urban spatiality in the cyberpunk stories of William Gibson. The theorisation of the relationship between urban space and narrative in the work of de Certeau and other theorists will be used to help frame this discussion.     

长三角城市群经济联系网络结构研究——基于社会网络视角的分析

作为中国经济活动最活跃的地区之一,长三角城市群网络化发展将是长三角城市区域今后发展的主要特征。本文基于社会网络分析方法,借鉴城市引力模型,以长三角城市群16个中心城市间的经济联系为例,对长三角城市群网络的基本形式、结构属性和网络微观特征进行实证分析。研究结果显示,长三角城市群经济关联网具备了中等网络规模,但内部各城市间联系不均衡性特征明显,多中心网络协同发展格局已初步形成。     

城市服务多样性与劳动力流动——基于“美团网”大数据和流动人口微观调查的分析

新时代背景下人们对美好生活的追求倾向愈加凸显,城市服务的多样性福利将成为吸引劳动力和优化人才结构的重要支撑。本文利用“美团网”生活服务分类和2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,研究城市服务多样性对劳动力流动的影响。结果显示,城市服务多样性会显著降低流动人口的迁出意愿,服务品类多样性每增加1%,劳动力迁出的概率平均约降低3.23%;城市服务多样性的影响具有群体差异性,年轻化、高技能群体的敏感度更高,边际效应可达4.62%和4.03%。考虑调节效应和地区异质性的扩展分析进一步发现,城市信息化、市场化水平对服务品类多样性吸引留住人才具有正向放大作用,尤其是在东部地区和500万人口以上大城市中表现尤为突出。本研究为城市人才吸引和劳动力竞争提供了政策启示。     

Cities under stress

This paper studies the effect of terrorist attacks on the internal structure of cities. We develop an urban framework with capital structures suitable for the study of this question and analyze the long and short term implications of this type of events. In the long run, the analysis shows that a terrorist attack will affect urban structure only modestly, relative to the potentially large decrease in the level of economic activity in the city. Land rents will not decline at all locations. In the short run, agglomeration forces will amplify the effect of the original destruction and will reduce urban economic activity temporarily.     

Alternative possible urban futures

The twenty-first century will witness a considerable variety of urban forms in the West, in the socialist bloc and in developing countries. Multi-group, multi-valued societies should and will offer options in both societal and physical urban living. A spectrum of experimental urban types is developing all over the world and there is much to be learned from these types in their continuous refinement. The author surveys existing and emerging types: those which offer “more of the same” in a surprise-free future, the new towns or cities which provide innovative life styles, and the extreme and intriguing variants which may feed back into the more normal forms. At present the first type looks most likely to persist.     

中国城市网络结构及空间关联性 ——来自"网络流"数据的分析

基于中国城市之间的关联特征和溢出效应,将人力资本变量纳入引力模型,运用社会网络分析和机器学习方法并依据主要节点城市的有向数据,考量城市网络结构及其关联性.结果显示:新引力模型可有效衡量样本城市的网络关联效应,金融状况、港口距离和高等教育资源丰裕度是决定城市引力流量重要原因,政府干预对城市引力流作用不明显;城市空间分布呈现明显的四级分层特征,但从人力资本对城市引力流影响看,作为中心城市的广州和深圳在网络拓扑中心的稳定性相对较弱.     

强制首诊和双向转诊——神木“全民免费医疗”的下一步

在＂强县扩权＂背景下,2009年3月神木县启动＂全民免费医疗＂政策,实现了基本医疗服务的城乡一体化。这一制度与其在教育、就业、养老等方面的新政一样,不断探索着资源型城市实现基本公共服务均等化的新思路。本文通过对神木县＂全民免费医疗＂实施以来的居民满意度及制度运行状况的调研,指出神木医改中存在的主要问题：（1）神木县农村三级卫生服务网络不健全,乡镇卫生院作用发挥有限,医疗资源浪费与短缺并存;（2）为解决过度医疗问题而出台的控制医疗费用的细则在实际运行中效果欠佳。基于此,我们建议实行＂守门人＂制度,引入强制首诊和双向转诊制度,并设计出双向转诊和费用报销的程序及其配套制度,以期为神木医改出现的问题提供解决方案,同时为其它地区实现基本公共卫生服务均等化目标,提供一个有益的借鉴。     

A new educational paradigm for the new millennium: Consciousness-based education

It is the year 2050 and education is dramatically different from education in the 20th century. At the basis of the new education is the insight that a field of pure consciousness exists which can easily be experienced by all. From this insight, a new educational paradigm has emerged—consciousness-based education—with a more profound understanding of human development and how to promote it. The primary goal of education now is enlightenment and the entire curriculum is organised to foster this goal. The flowering of human potential produced by this educational approach has created a new age for humanity—the Age of Enlightenment.     

High-speed railway opening and urban green productivity in the post-COVID-19: Evidence from green finance

In an era during which the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread, high-speed railway (HSR), as one of the key influencers of urban green development, has a significant impact on urban green finance and green productivity. This paper uses HSR as a quasi-natural experiment to study the effect of HSR openings on green productivity in Chinese cities. The empirical results show that, first, the opening of HSR is conducive to the sustained improvement of green productivity in Chinese cities. Second, the opening of HSR makes a significant contribution to the improvement of green productivity in large-scale cities as well as cities in the east and central regions. Third, the opening of HSR can positively impact urban green productivity through the mechanism of green finance development. However, this positive impact tends to first increase and then decrease over time. As the relationship between “finance” and “environment,” green finance has an important impact on the green development of cities. These findings will provide positive and useful references for cities to formulate reasonable green development plans in the post-COVID-19 era.     

New technology and the urban environment

Technology has always had an influence on the form of settlements, but only since the coming of Information Technology has it aroused much interest from academics and planners. The impact that IT is likely to have on urban areas is debated, some foreseeing decentralisation and the end of place, while others see evidence of the centralisation of control in a global economy. Other new technologies may also affect cities as new materials provide the opportunity for different styles of building. As we enter the 21st century, however, we do so with the largest stock of urban capital ever, much of which is ageing and in need of maintenance. Technology is part of a complex interrelationship of influences on urban areas and much of it will have to be retrofitted on to the pre-existing environment.     

Capital budgeting and delegation

As part of our ongoing research into capital budgeting processes as responses to decentralized information and incentive problems, we focus in this paper on when a level of a managerial hierarchy will delegate the allocation of capital across projects and time to the level below it. In our model, delegation is a way to save on costly investigation of proposed projects. Therefore, it is more extensive the larger are the costs of such investigations. This delegation takes advantage of the fact that the lower-level manager's preferences are assumed to be similar (though not identical) to those of the higher level.     

The multi-national corporations: Considerations for a scenario

Although multi-national corporations have been one of the main customers for future-oriented activities such as technological forecasting, precious little attention has been paid to their development either in the work of the so-called establishment futurists or in the work of their more ‘radical’ colleagues. It is argued that these companies will be increasingly free of control at the international level though under greater scrutiny at the national level. It is likely that they will become increasingly intertwined with both national and international governing bodies, and be seen as arms of these governing bodies rather than as the traditional profit-maximising organisations.