Forecasting international tourism trends to 2010

Modifications of earlier versions of forecasting models make it possible to trace the effects of changes in income and prices emanating from each individual country considered in this paper. At the theoretical level, it examines the assumptions underlying partial demand models and points out the implications of these assumptions in the context of those relating to international tourism. The new model is used to generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 20 countries for the period up to 2010. It allows a more realistic simulation of the impact of political events such as the introduction of the Euro and of changes in framework conditions.     

Stated preferences for two Cretan heritage attractions

The paper utilizes discrete choice modeling methodology to evaluate preferences of tourists for hypothetical managerial initiatives for two heritage attractions in Crete, Greece. The results show that they are willing to contribute a significant amount of money for improvements in the quality of information for both sites. Receiving information will substantially improve their satisfaction and thus their chances of visiting. Tourists also make reference to demand management issues, arguing that deterioration in congestion levels in both attractions will negatively affect satisfaction levels. The paper draws attention to future policies designed to improve the quality of the heritage experience, such as the introduction of audiovisual material to complement the presentation of exhibits.     

Destination place planning and design

Destination place management requires that land use and development issues be addressed. Despite considerable advancement in the methodological processes, there is still no clear conceptual destination model to address these issues. Existing models have largely been developed through a fragmented case-study approach and have not yet achieved a sufficiently integrated conceptual basis for a comprehensive understanding of the spatial characteristics of destination regions. This paper attempts to sharpen the conceptualization of the core elements of destination regions by building upon existing models and concepts. The model presented here is a systemic construct and provides for a common platform from which investigations can proceed into the normative and functional aspects of spatial destination design.     

Estimating total statewide travel

Past research has not addressed the specific procedures needed to estimate the total number of people traveling by motor vehicle in a state or the number of vehicular trips they take based on a sample of those travelers. Methods were developed in a study in which leisure travelers were surveyed enroute throughout a state over a year's time. Procedures involved in trip estimation are discussed, and a simple method for cross-validating estimates obtained is proposed. An estimate of one segment of these trips was validated by comparing it with a figure obtained from a state agency, suggesting that the approach is sound. Implications of the method and its results are discussed.     

TOURISM AND CULTURAL PROXIMITY: Examples from New Zealand

While tourism products based on Maori culture are popular among some overseas tourists to New Zealand, there has been little research as to their appeal to the domestic market. This paper discusses notions of indigenous tourism and the role of cultural and spatial difference in European conceptualizations of the exotic other. It argues that although there is a common cultural antecedence between non-Maori and European culture, the lack of spatial distance between Maori and tourists means that European New Zealanders are not drawn to Maori culture as an attraction in the manner that those from Europe and North America are. The paper discusses “kiwi culture” and familiarity as determinants of tourist demand.     

Main destination ratios : Analyses of tourist flows

Published data such as those from the World Tourism Organisation omit statistics about multidestination trips. The main Destination Ratio and its derivatives provide a partial remedy, illuminating patterns and trends that otherwise may be hidden. The techniques are illustrated by data about trips in one year by Japanese, New Zealanders, and Australians to sixteen countries, and about Australians' visits over thirteen years to Singapore and Hong Kong. The techniques' distinction is data collected at two points in a tourism system; conventional statistics about traveler-tourist flows usually rely on one point. Practical applications of the new techniques are discussed.     

Resort cycle revisited: The retirement connection

This article reappraises the Butler model of resort evolution with the addition of a focus on retirement-tourism relationships. The model predicts retirement will emerge as a major factor in resorts as tourism goes into decline, but an examination of trends in Parksville and Qualicum Beach, British Columbia, Canada, revealed retirement has been a feature of those resorts since their early days and has grown alongside tourism. However, an analysis of content of local newspapers revealed that the two communities came to appreciate the retirement sector with their first major downturn in tourism, which in itself partially supports Butler's thesis.     

A framework of tourist attraction research

Although tourist attractions are fundamental to the very existence of tourism, there have been few attemps to come to terms with the breadth of approaches that have been employed in their study. An examination of research methods used in the study of tourist attractions and the tourist attractiveness of places reveals that most studies can be classified into one or more of three general perspectives: the ideographic listing, the organization, and the tourist cognition of attractions. Each of these perspectives shares a distinct set of questions concerning the nature of the attractions, as expressed through the typologies used in their evaluation. At the same time, all three perspectives make comparisons based on the historical, locational, and various valuational aspects of attractions. This framework can be applied in the comparison and evaluation of tourist attraction related research.     

Combining time-series and econometric forecast of tourism activity

It has always been difficult to model the travel industry because tourism involves such a diverse set of activities. However, various regional decision makers have become increasingly interested in predicting the flows of visitors through their market. Accurate forecasts of the number of tourists' arrivals, their length of stay, and their expenditures improve planning and inventory control. Stochastic time-series models have compared favorably with econometric models at the aggregate level while some naive automatic forecasting tools have fared well in comparison when predicting industry-level behavior. Several approaches have been developed to improve forecast accuracy. This paper presents parsimonious methods of improving accuracy by combining various forecasting techniques. The Box-Jenkins stochastic time-series method is combined with a traditional econometric technique to forecast airline visitors to the State of Florida.     

Ethnic politics and tourism: A British Case Study

This paper argues that one can better understand the phenomenon of ethnicity in the West through an analysis of tourism representations of a region's history and culture and of the many motives behind them. It examines the rise of a particular version of Shetland (United Kingdom) identity by linking the differing goals of the local bourgeoisie, as well as the bulk of the islands' inhabitants, with the projects of the Shetland Tourist Organisation and related groups. While this version of the Shetlandness is understood as providing a Durkheimian sense of unity for many inhabitants, its origins and increasing articulations with the economic and political goals of the islands' bourgeoisie are the main concerns of the paper.

Résumé

Développement économique et tourisme de randonneurs. Cet article soutient que l'on peut mieux comprendre le phénomène de l'ethnicité occidentale en analysant les représentations touristiques de l'histoire et de la culture d'une région et les motivations derrière ces représentations. On examine une certaine version de l'identité shetlandaise (Royauyme-Une) en reliant les différents objectifs de la bourgeoisie locale et de la majorité des habitants des îles, avec les projects de l'Organisation Touristique Shetlandaise parmi d'autres groupes. On comprent que cette version de l'identité shetlandaise donne un sens d'identité à la Durkheim à beaucoup d'habitants. Pourtant, l'objet principal de l'article est d'examiner les origines de cette version et sa relation croissante avec les buts économiques et politiques de la bourgeoisie shetlandaise.     

Measuring novelty seeking in tourism

The purposes of the study were to define the construct of novelty in the context of tourism, to conceptualize its role in the destination choice process, and to develop an instrument to measure novelty. The novelty construct was comprised of four interrelated but distinctive dimensions: thrill, change from routine, boredom alleviation, and surprise. A 21 item instrument was developed to measure the construct and its dimensions. The scale was judged to have content validity by an initial panel of experts. It was demonstrated to have convergent, theoretical, discriminant, and criterion validity in terms of its expected correlations with other measures. Items measuring the dimensions were internally consistent, and both test-retest and split-half reliability were satisfactory.     

Tourism and agricultural development in thailand

The adoption of tourism by agricultural communities may increase or decrease environmental degradation by affecting the frequency of cultivation or perceived value of soil conservation. Research undertaken in a prominent “hill tribe” village in northern Thailand indicated that tourism was only adopted by those with available cash and labor, and did not present a viable alternative to agriculture. However, households which did adopt tourism increased frequency of cultivation by hiring agricultural labor and dividing land within families to maximize use of land. Tourism has, therefore, been unavailable to the poorest small landowners who most need a new source of income, but it has generally increased frequency of cultivation among those who have adopted it.     

A tourist space-time budget in the Shetland Islands

This paper addresses the need to better understand tourist pressure in selected regions of the Shetland Islands, United Kingdom, using measures of space, time, perception, region, and core-periphery. Normally an economic theory, core-periphery was applied in the context of this study as a locational and mental construct in examining tourism group movement (behavior). Respondents were placed into two groups on the basis of their activitybased motivations for visiting Shetland and asked to complete a daily space-time budget regarding their use of attractions, facilities, accommodation, and transportation. It was discovered that both groups differed marginally in their space-time use of the aforementioned variables within the various regions of Shetland.     

Tourism land use conflict in the United States

Despite numerous articles detailing the consequences of tourism, one's understanding of the conflict caused by tourism development is limited. This paper attempts to identify generalizable features of the tourism development debate in the United States through the use of a locational conflict framework. A typology of tourism development was created using content analysis of newspaper articles that described conflict over tourism related land use changes. The results of the analysis indicate that the number of tourism development conflict incidents and the issues involved in these incidents varied substantially across the United States. Analysis also indicates that the participants involved in the conflicts aligned themselves into different coalitions, depending upon the particular issue. This suggests that the particular tourism development issue is the most important variable affecting generalizations about tourism development conflict.     

The economic impact of tourism at the port of Miami

The total disaggregated economic impact that cruise industry tourism has on Dade County is examined in economic terms using a regional input-output model developmen by the Regional Science Research Institute. The analysis indicates that cruise industry tourism at the Port of Miami had a total economic impact on Dade County of $546 million in 1982. The total direct, indirect and induced number of jobs generated by the cruise industry and cruise passengers is 21,627. Wages totalling $271 million were paid in 1982 in Dade County as a result of the total impact of the cruise industry. Finally, the model revealed that cruise industry tourism contributed $264 million to the county's Gross Regional Product in 1982     

Sustainable tourism and the question of the commons

Sustainable development calls for wise management of natural, built, and sociocultural resources in destination areas. Resources created mainly for tourism are used in time by the local population as well. Many others are shared in common with local people in everyday life. More often than not, resources are overused and degraded, as is the unfortunate fate of most ‘common pool resources’. When this happens, sustainable development is severely threatened: economic wellbeing declines, environmental conditions worsen, social injustice grows, and tourist satisfaction drops. This paper analyzes the central role that common pool resources play in sustainable tourism development, outlines policy design principles for their management, and offers future research directions.     

Consuming heritage: Perceived historical authenticity

This paper examines tourists' perceptions of the historical authenticity of The Rocks, Australia, a heritage precinct fashioned by the Sydney Cove Redevelopment Authority. It argues that overall tourists perceive this representation of history as authentic. Gender, income, education level, position in lifecycle, place of residence, and previous visitations to The Rocks were also explored to identify how these variables might shape tourism experiences and subsequent negotiations of authenticity. The overall uncritical “consumption” of the commodified version of history as heritage is regarded as a matter for concern. The commodified environment based upon the rhetoric of Australian nationalism has silenced alternative versions of the past which highlight oppression, racism, and conflict.     

Multicity trip patterns: Tourists to the United States

This study examines international tourists’ multicity trip patterns within the United States. Actual and perceived distance from the country of origin to the destination is assumed to affect the likelihood of multicity tourism behavior. In addition, higher opportunity costs for first-time tourists are expected to lead to increased multicity patterns. An analysis of the trips of international tourists to US metropolitan areas confirmed that multicity patterns differ for groups of tourists with different origins and varying levels of familiarity with the destination. Differences lie in the directionality of flows as well as the extent and nature of multicity tourism behavior.     

Tourism and crime in the Caribbean

This study reviews the general literature on tourism and crime and the recent history of violent and property crime in several Caribbean destinations. It highlights the failure of most previous research to discriminate crimes against tourists vs. residents. Annual crime data for Barbados for 1989–93 are analyzed and reveal that overall guest victimization rates are higher than host rates. Residents are significantly more likely to be victimized by violent crime while tourists are significantly more likely to experience property crime and robbery. Monthly data on guest victimization for 1990–93 show similar patterns. The paper concludes with a number of measures to enhance tourist safety.