Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?

China's trade surplus reached a record $102 billion in 2005 while the US trade deficit of $717 billion accounted for 5.8% of US Gross Domestic Product in the same year. US policy makers claim China's currency is undervalued about 25 to 35% against the US dollar and they blame China for holding the value of the RMB weak to keep Chinese products competitive on prices in international markets. Given the unique situation in China, where the capital account is only partially convertible and the economy has been growing at an annual average rate of 10% over the last two decades, this paper empirically examines the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignment of China's RMB against the US dollar by using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) models. Our results show that the RMB was undervalued by approximately 15% from 2002:Q2 to 2003:Q4; however, it is interesting to note that while the RMB was overvalued during 1997:Q4–2002:Q2, China experienced a huge trade surplus during that period.     

Lessons from historical monetary unions - is the European monetary union making the same mistakes?

This article examines three historical monetary unions: the Latin Monetary Union (LMU), the Scandinavian Monetary Union (SMU), and the Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union (AHMU) in an attempt to derive possible lessons for the European Monetary Union (EMU). The term ‘monetary union’ can be defined either narrowly or broadly depending on how closely it conforms to Mundell’s notion of ‘Optimal Currency Area’. After examining each of the historical monetary unions from this perspective, the article concludes that none of them ever truly conformed to Mundell’s concept, nor does the EMU. Nevertheless, the article argues that some lessons may be learned from these historical experiences. First, it is necessary that there exist robust institutions such as a common central bank and a unified fiscal policy in order to withstand external shocks. The three early unions could not withstand the shock of WWI. Another important lesson is that continuing national rivalries can undermine any monetary union.     

Do house prices play a role in unconventional monetary policy transmission in Japan?

This study comprehensively analyzes the role of house prices in the transmission mechanism of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) in Japan using structural vector autoregression models. The empirical results show that house prices are significantly affected by UMP shocks, and fluctuations in house prices considerably affect macroeconomic variables. With a set of robustness checks and extensions, the findings indicate that house prices provide important channels for UMP transmission.     

Does bank competition affect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through bank lending channel? Evidence from India

This paper empirically investigates how intensified competition in the Indian banking affects the transmission of monetary policy through bank lending channel over the period 1997–2017. Additionally, this study examines the impact of deposit and loan market channels on bank’s credit growth. Results obtained through two-step system-GMM reveal that a higher degree of market power weakens the monetary policy transmission mechanism for the entire banking industry and across ownerships. Results show that higher market power in the deposit and loan markets weakens the impact of monetary policy on bank loan supply. The findings of this study extend important policy measures that can strengthen the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by reducing the adverse effects of changes in bank competition.     

Has the compulsory school merger program reduced the welfare of rural residents in China?

The compulsory school merger program in rural regions of China imposed higher education costs on rural residents, decreased their consumption and reduced their welfare. In this study, we employ household-level data and the difference-in-differences method to analyze the policy effect on residents' consumption and education costs. Our results show that the compulsory school merger program had a negative effect on the consumption of rural residents and inflicted multiple education costs on them. We also find that the increase in the distance between school and home is an important explanation for the effect of this policy on rural residents' education costs.     

Which education policies can prevent the collapse of the middle-income group?

This study addresses the issue of widening income inequality and evaluates elementary and higher education policies. Unless education policy increases the level of elementary education more rapidly than that of higher education, it will become more difficult to prevent the collapse of the middle-income group because of the increasing price of education. This collapse of the middle-income group would subsequently decrease the levels of income for all individuals. Whereas education policy affects the levels of both elementary and higher education, elementary education policy should precede higher education policy as long as the direct effect of policy outweigh the indirect effect.     

Is there income mobility in the Philippines?

Despite a more robust economic performance over the past decade compared with the 1980s and 1990s, growth in average household income is still far below what might be expected given the pace of economic expansion in the Philippines. Inequality of household income has also remained high, which leads to the question: is there income mobility in the Philippines? Using longitudinal data from three years of the redesigned Philippine Family Income and Expenditure Survey (2003, 2006, and 2009) and a variety of analytical tools, we examine the mobility of Filipino household income and show that it is less stagnant than is conventionally perceived. Empirical evidence suggests that significant positive and negative mobility exists; albeit, the two tend to offset each other, contributing to slow household income growth at the aggregate level. In addition, there is some evidence that transitory fluctuations contribute significantly to the observed level of income mobility. Overall, the findings are robust across different analytical tools used in measuring income mobility.     

Can central bank communication effectively guide the monetary policy expectation of the public?

Central bank communication helps to optimize monetary policy. Therefore, it is essential to study whether central bank communication can effectively guide expectations via various communication methods. We study central bank communication in China using the events collected from its official websites and social media, and we divide them into formal and informal communications. We use the high-frequency quotation data of treasury bonds to identify monetary policy surprise caused by communication, which is measured by the target and path surprise. Then, we evaluate the forward-looking and backward-looking effectiveness of central bank communications. We show that central bank communications can help guide public expectations, but different topics and different forms of communication have heterogeneous effects. Forward guidance carries both potential benefits and drawbacks. It is worth noting that China's current central bank communications may have certain potential to be improved.     

Has China displaced the outward investments of OECD countries?

As China has rapidly emerged as one of the world's largest investors abroad, there has been a hectic debate in the literature on whether its emergence as a major foreign investor may have undermined the importance of western industrialised economies, including those in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This paper aims to investigate whether this is the case. The study uses a panel dataset covering 155 countries, including 33 in the OECD, where China had invested during 2003–09. This is by far the most comprehensive dataset of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). A two-stage least squared (TSLS) regression approach is adopted for our econometric models according to an established augmented gravity model in the literature. The empirical results show clear evidence that China's OFDI displaces that of the OECD countries, but the argument that China's emergence is a ‘new colonialism’ is not supported as OECD countries' OFDI in resource abundant host countries, particularly that in Africa and Latin America, does not appear to have been displaced by China's OFDI.     

Does the law of one price hold in China? Testing price convergence using disaggregated data

This study examines to what extent prices diverge across China and how long it takes prices to converge following idiosyncratic shocks. We consider monthly data using disaggregated goods prices from 36 cities in China. Following [Imbs, J., Mumtaz, H., Ravn, M., and Rey, H., 2005. PPP strikes back: aggregation and the real exchange rate. Quarterly Journal of Economics 120, 1–44.], we use two estimation methods: a fixed effect method when considering goods individually and a mean group estimation specification for a panel including all goods simultaneously. The mean group method also accounts for dynamic heterogeneity across goods. Impulse response functions are obtained to calculate half-lives. With both methods, we find half-lives of only a few months or less, supporting the conjecture that convergence rates within a country are faster than rates estimated in an international context. However, the half-life reported here is still shorter than that for other studies using disaggregated intracountry data. Perhaps a lower degree of specialization and market differentiation in developing countries creates a greater potential for price convergence.     

What Factors Keep Cash Alive in the European Union?

This paper aims to analyze the determinants of cash usage in a selection of European Union (EU) countries over the 2003–2016 period, based on a set of technological, socioeconomic, and socio-cultural indicators and cost components. Our results reveal the existence of both common and region-specific determinants for the EU advanced and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In both groups cash usage is determined by payment system characteristics. Additionally, in the EU advanced countries cash usage can also be explained by the level of economic development and income inequalities and proliferation of Internet. In contrast, cash usage in CEE countries is negatively associated with consumer confidence and is inversely related to the technological progress, expressed in terms of mobile users.

     

Are structural parameters of DSGE models stable in Korea?

This paper examines whether the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are stable over time in Korea. By estimating a DSGE model, we find evidence that the 1997 Asian financial crisis did not change structural parameters in spite of significant policy changes and institutional reforms. This empirical finding has important significance for Korea's policymakers, as they can no longer rely on a DSGE modeling strategy for policy analysis and forecasting without structural parameter stability. Moreover, this paper shows that the current DSGE model is superior to simple time series models in forecasting key macroeconomic variables in most cases. Finally, the current model successfully reproduces the relative volatilities of consumption, investment and hours worked with respect to output as well as the pattern of contemporaneous correlations of output with other variables.     

Has education led to secularization? Based on the study of compulsory education law in China

Has education led to secularization? Using microdata from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), we take the implementation of the Compulsory Education Law (CEL) in 1986 in China as the instrumental variables (IV) for personal educational attainment. We study the causal effect of education on personal religious beliefs and explore the potential mechanisms. The empirical results show that education can lead to secularization. More precisely, individual religious belief decreases by 1.5% with one additional year of personal education. In addition, the increase in regional urbanization significantly affects religious beliefs by replacing the insurance function of religion and reducing information acquisition costs. Moreover, there is an alternative relationship between religious activities and social activities, and women affected by the CEL experience a higher negative impact on religious beliefs than men.     

Has ODA contributed to growth? An assessment of the impact of Japanese ODA

Japanese ODA is uniquely different from that of Western countries in its strategic focus on economic growth. This paper examines whether it has indeed contributed to economic growth in its partner countries, as an attempt to respond to the question of how ODA can promote growth. It employs an econometric analysis using a panel dataset of 117 countries from 1980 to 2010 and disaggregated ODA flows from five major donors and the sum of all the other donors. Our study finds that Japanese ODA is positively associated with industrial growth in its partner countries, through which it has contributed to their economic growth.     

Conference on development policies in Southern Africa: Was the future shaped?

The Development Society of Southern Africa held its biennial conference from 10—12 September at the University of Cape Town. The theme was ‘Development policies: Shaping the future of Southern Africa’. Fifty‐five papers were presented and discussed by some 350 people at plenary and parallel sessions. There was also a panel discussion, a number of lead‐in discussants, and a poster session; three conference newspapers containing the essence of the discussions were published and a number of videos on developmental and related topics were shown.

The question to be answered in this review is whether all these papers and other activities actually achieved what the conference set out to do: shaping the future development policy for Southern Africa.     

Activity of the Russian monetary and banking sector in conditions of adverse external factors of 2014–2015 affecting the economy

This article represents a discussion on how the adverse external factors of 2014–2015 affected the banking system and financial conditions of the real economy sector. The analysis is based on the data of bank accounting statements. The work also uses statistical data on the turnover and concentration obtained by aggregating the accounting statements available online on the Russian Central Bank’s official website.