子女教育及3岁以下婴幼儿照护个人所得税专项附加扣除研析北大核心CSSCI

本文利用2018年的中国家庭追踪调查数据,对子女教育及3岁以下婴幼儿照护个人所得税专项附加扣除政策的减税效应、收入再分配效应和社会福利效应进行测算,结果表明,子女教育专项附加扣除政策不仅会降低居民的税收负担,还会提高社会福利水平,但存在一定的收入分配逆向调节。在子女教育专项附加扣除基础上,将3岁以下婴幼儿照护纳入专项附加扣除范围,会进一步降低居民的税收负担,实现更高水平的社会福利,但收入分配的逆向调节仍然存在。为减缓子女教育及3岁以下婴幼儿照护个人所得税专项附加扣除政策对收入分配的逆向调节,更好发挥专项附加扣除政策降低居民负担、提高社会福利水平的作用,建议从两方面完善现有扣除办法:一是根据教育阶段识别纳税人子女教育支出的差异,以更好匹配纳税人实际负担;二是提高部分纳税人3岁以下婴幼儿照护税前扣除额度。     

我国个人所得税调节居民收入分配的有效性研究

本文运用中国健康和营养调查数据,对我国个人所得税调节居民收入分配的有效性进行微观模拟分析。研究结果表明,分别在九级累进税率、七级累进税率和综合个人所得税的假设条件下,我国的个人所得税都可以在一定程度上降低居民的收入分配差距。尤其需要指出的是,综合征收的个人所得税对于居民收入分配的调节效果最为显著。基于微观模拟结果,本文建议在我国实施综合所得税制度,工薪收入的费用扣除标准应考虑居民家庭负担情况,并实现个人所得税制要素的动态调整。     

个人所得税房贷利息扣除政策优化探讨

本文在验证我国个人所得税专项附加扣除中的房贷利息扣除政策的公平性问题基础上,提出优化方案,并对其效果进行模拟。研究发现,当前房贷利息固定金额税前扣除模式具有累退性,而不可返还的房贷利息税额抵免和可返还的房贷利息税额抵免均能改进收入分配效果,后者作用更为突出,抵免率越高收入分配效果越好,地区和城市规模差异会使结果产生异质性。基于此,可以尝试结合地区差异和城市规模推行多种税收优惠模式相结合的改革方案,改进政策效果。     

个人所得税专项附加扣除的减税效应与收入分配效应

我国个人所得税自2019年引入专项附加扣除制度以来,历经扣除项目范围扩大和扣除标准提高两次政策调整。本文从整体专项附加扣除和分项专项扣除两个视角,采用2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据,对专项附加扣除的减税效应和收入分配效应进行测度。研究发现：（1）专项附加扣除的整体减税效应显著,其中,中等收入组专项附加扣除、子女教育专项附加扣除的减税规模最大;（2）无论是整体专项附加扣除,还是分项专项附加扣除,均对收入分配产生逆向调节,且逆向程度与扣除规模成正比;（3）2023年提高子女教育、赡养老人和3岁以下婴幼儿照护扣除标准,在增强专项附加扣除减税效应的同时,加剧了对收入分配的逆向调节。基于此,建议专项附加扣除的首要目标应定位为减轻税收负担、提高中低收入者的可支配收入,同时可考虑对高收入者的扣除金额实行随收入增加而调减的制度安排等,以缓解专项附加扣除对收入分配的逆向调节,兼顾效率与公平。     

个人所得税改革对居民消费的效应评价与完善路径

当前我国居民消费不足的最主要原因在于居民收入水平不高、国民收入分配失衡,所以2018年个人所得税改革的重点是提高费用扣除标准、调整税率结构,降低纳税人负担,增加纳税人可支配收入,提高居民消费水平。要进一步促进居民消费,个人所得税有必要继续减税,同时进一步调节收入分配差距,使收入分配更加公平。具体对策包括:将专项附加扣除中的子女教育支出范围扩大为子女养育支出,增加家庭合并征税模式,费用扣除标准指数化动态调整,进一步优化税率结构,建立负所得税制度。     

我国与东盟国家个人所得税税制比较

本文比较了东盟各国的个人所得税,包括纳税人、税收优惠、可扣除项目、税制模式及税率、税收征管等方面。我国自2019年起实行新的个人所得税制度,大大降低了纳税人尤其是中低收入纳税人的税收负担,更有利于调节收入分配。但是,我国个人所得税仍存在部分税前扣除的规定不够合理、最高边际税率相对较高、税收优惠与企业所得税衔接不紧密、未实行预填报制度等问题。本文在借鉴东盟各国个人所得税经验的基础上,提出了我国个人所得税应进一步调整完善的建议。     

完善我国个人所得税专项附加扣除制度的建议北大核心

完善个人所得税专项附加扣除制度是建立现代个人所得税制度的重要内容。个人所得税专项附加扣除制度目前存在子女教育专项附加扣除未考虑不同年龄子女的学费支出差异、继续教育专项附加扣除额度较低等问题。进一步完善我国个人所得税专项附加扣除制度,应从以下几方面着手:一是根据不同教育阶段细化子女教育专项附加扣除标准;二是提高继续教育专项附加扣除额度;三是扩大大病医疗专项附加扣除适用范围,并提高限额;四是根据不同地区细化住房贷款利息专项附加扣除;五是提高“一线城市”的住房租金专项附加扣除标准;六是根据赡养老人的年龄和收入情况细化赡养老人专项附加扣除。     

工资薪金个人所得税税前扣除额变化对收入影响的实证研究

近年来,工资薪金个人所得税税前费用扣除额标准是否上调及上调幅度多少成为社会广泛关注和争论的焦点,扣除额本身及扣除额上调对收入分配是否具有调节作用是这场争论的核心问题。本文采用实证研究的方法,通过对南京市2005～2010年全部工资薪金个人所得税数据的累进性分析,发现费用扣除额标准的变动对调节收入分配确实存在积极的影响,同时,对完善我国现有扣除额标准,进一步发挥税前扣除对收入分配的积极作用提出了政策建议。     

我国个人所得税改革效果评析及对策建议

以提高工薪所得费用扣除标准为特征的个人所得税改革,减税效果明显,但调节居民收入分配差距的作用不大。此次改革存在以下误区:不符合我国提高直接税比重的税制改革趋势;"聚财"与"调节"功能错位;存在"头痛医头"的片面做法。进一步深化个人所得税改革应该顺应提高直接税占税收总收入比重的趋势,在大幅度提高居民的收入所得的基础上,采取建立综合税制体系、采取有效手段使隐性收入显性化、加强征管等综合改革措施,增加富人的个人所得税比重,发挥个人所得税的调节功能。     

借鉴国际经验 完善我国个人所得税减除费用制度北大核心CSSCI

不少国家(地区)个人所得税减除费用以居民基本生活费用为依据,按照实际负担人数,确定标准化减除费用;同时结合纳税人收入情况、纳税人及被供养家属是否残疾、抚养子女的纳税人婚姻状况、被供养家属年龄,设置差异化减除费用。我国个人所得税以城镇居民人均消费性支出等为依据,实行标准化减除费用,结合纳税人居住、教育、医疗、育儿、养老等支出实行专项附加扣除。比较而言,我国个人所得税标准减除费用未考虑实际负担人数,差异化减除费用未考虑纳税人收入情况、纳税人及被供养家属是否残疾、抚养子女的纳税人婚姻状况、赡养老人年龄,造成纳税人减除费用扣除不足等问题。为提高我国个人所得税调节收入分配的精准性,应借鉴国际经验,充分考虑纳税人实际负担、纳税人收入等因素,完善我国个人所得税减除费用制度。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.