Money, prices, and causality: The Chinese hyperinflation, 1945–1949

This paper empirically examines causality between money and prices during the Chinese hyperinflation, 1945-49. The major issue concerning the interrelationship between money and prices is the endogeneity of money supply and the rate of inflation. Both the Sims test and the Granger test indicate that there was strong feedback causation between money creation and inflation during the Chinese hyperinflation. The mutual feedback between money creation and the rate of inflation is an important cause of the development of hyperinflation.     

Testing for causality between prices and money

The test for a causal relationship proposed byHaugh [1976] is considered in the context of the relationship between prices and money supply. The application of the test to 10 Latin American countries leads to the hypothesis of independence between the series being not rejected. Criticisms of the test are then discussed.     

Toward Reasonable Capitalism: The Role of John R. Commons’s Price and Business Cycle Theories

Abstract

John R. Commons thought that prices should be stable and that the law of supply and demand should be controlled by the power of the state through patent law and by protecting bargaining equality. Commons also thought that prices should be stabilized by macro monetary policy. These means would allow the realization of a “reasonable price.” Commons called the objective and measurable value in money, which is determined by a court ruling, “reasonable value.” Analysis of Commons’s price and business cycle theories point toward the realization of both “reasonable price” and “reasonable value” and toward “reasonable capitalism” that can replace banker capitalism.     

股票价格、实体经济与货币政策研究——基于我国1997-2011年的经验证据

本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验和向量自回归方法分析了1997年1月至2011年6月我国股票价格、GDP、通货膨胀率和货币政策的关系,实证结果表明,在中国,股票价格对通货膨胀的效应为正向,即股市上涨能带动通货膨胀水平的上涨。股票市场对GDP的影响短期内主要表现为替代效应,长期来看,则是财富效应和投资效应占主导;同时,货币供应量和利率对股票价格均有影响,但影响均不显著。通过格兰杰因果关系检验发现,利率变动导致货币供应量和股票价格发生变化。而货币供应量的变化影响着通货膨胀,也一定程度影响利率和股票价格。通过广义脉冲响应发现,中国人民银行紧缩性的利率政策并不能抑制股票价格上涨。增加货币供给短期内能够推动股市上涨,但长期对股市仍没有效果。     

The Holy Grail of Crypto Currencies: Ready to Replace Fiat Money?

Abstract:

This article suggests that current forms of crypto currencies will fail to complement or replace fiat money. We show that fixed-supply coins like bitcoin suffer from an inherently speculative and deflationary design and are not backed by a “We Owe You”. Stablecoins, i.e. coins that rely on flexible supply designs, are also not backed by a “We Owe You” and cannot achieve price stability because they build on outdated monetarist theories. Moreover, the algorithmically planned allocation of new coins, which is characteristic of stablecoins, is not market-based. As such, it is inferior to contemporary ways of money creation. Regarding price stability, we suggest that (crypto) monetary policy needs to overcome the illusionary dichotomy between the real and the financial circuit by accounting for systematic coordinated wage bargaining mechanisms to reflect that firms set prices according to cost-based pricing rules.     

Money,prices and causality: monetarist versus structuralist explanations using pooled country evidence

The direction of causality between changes in money supply and aggregate prices has long been a matter of controversy between structuralists and monetarists. This paper addresses deficiencies in this literature in three ways. First, a large sample of countries with alternate measures of money and price variables is used to evaluate the evidence on money, inflation and causality. Second, combined data are tested for causality, with the combinations based on variables suggested by the literature - level of per capita income, magnitude of inflation, degree of financial market development, and independence of the central bank. Finally, because the choice of lag length is often arbitrary, results are generated with varying lags and consistency across different lag periods looked for. Two presentation methods are developed - categorical and graphical. Evidence of structural inflation, was found only in Chile and Sri Lanka. Evidence of money supply exogeneity on the other hand was found to be strongest in Kuwait, Paraguay and the USA. Most countries exhibited mixed evidence of money supply endogeneity, with bidirectional causation between money supply and aggregate prices a common result.     

The 1997 Asian Currency Crisis,Financial Linkages,and the Monetary Policy of Japan

The evidence is examined that excessively liberal monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, before and after the financial collapse of Japan in 1992, may have led other East Asian economies into “over‐borrowing” and speculative investments, prior to the currency crisis in 1997–98. The authors test for cointegration and Granger causality between Japanese money supply M1 and the domestic investment of eight East Asian economies and Australia. US and German money supplies are also used as a benchmark. There is strong evidence that there are long‐ and short‐run causal relationships between the Japanese money supply and the domestic investment of the Asian crisis‐inflicted economies prior to 1997.     

Is there Causal Relationship between Money Supply Growth and Inflation in China? Evidence from Quantity Theory of Money

This study examines the causal relationship between Chinese money supply growth and inflation, using the bootstrap Granger full‐sample causality test and sub‐sample rolling‐window estimation test to determine whether such a relationship in China supports the quantity theory of money. The result indicates that there is a unidirectional relationship from inflation to money supply growth. However, considering structural changes in two series, we find that short‐run relationships using full‐sample data are unstable, which suggests that full‐sample causality tests cannot be relied upon. Then, we use a time‐varying rolling‐window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationship, and the results show that money supply growth has both positive and negative impacts on inflation in several sub‐periods, and in turn, inflation has the same effects on money supply growth for China. These findings are basically consistent with the modern quantity theory of money from the perspective of money supply and price level. When money supply growth does not outweigh output growth, inflation should not be curbed only by decreasing money supply. It notes that a stable money supply growth is critical to price level stability and economic development in China.     

Money in the pure consumption loan model

The purpose of this paper is to show how modern techniques of Temporary competitive equilibrium analysis can be applied to models of the “pure consumption loan model” type. One considers Samuelson's simplest model where traders live two periods and where money is the only store of value. It is proved that a temporary equilibrium exists if price expectations are sufficiently independent of current prices. A stationary market equilibrium is shown to exist if there is a set of traders (i) whose total resources are greater when they are young than when they are old, (ii) who are indifferent between present and future consumption. It is proved that this existence theorem still holds if the economy is sufficiently “close” to an economy which has this property. A stationary market equilibrium is shown to be Pareto optimal if all traders hold positive cash balances. It may be inefficient if this condition is not satisfied, for some traders may then be willing to borrow, which they cannot do in this model.     

A Note on Causality Between Money,Wages and Prices in Australia*

Lead and lag relationships between money, wages. and prices are examined using Australian data. Granger causality tests support univariate causality running from money to both wages and prices. This result is consistent with a monetarist explanation of inflation.     

The Rose-Wicksell model: Inside money,stability, and stabilization policies

This paper examines a Rose-Wicksell, as opposed to a Stein-Keynes-Wicksell, model of Monetary Dynamics. Here, all money is of the “pure credit,” or “inside,” variety. Suppliers of money (banks) do not suffer from money illusion just as demanders do not; their decision to supply real balances is, likewise, based on profit maximization. The stability properties of the model are derived both in the short and the growth runs. It is shown that if interest is paid on demand deposits and if this rate is manipulated by the Central Bank, according to the rate of inflation, then all sources of instability can be eliminated. Moreover, stabilization of the short run guarantees stabilization of the growth model.     

The causal nexus of money,output and prices in Malaysia

Using Geweke's approach to Wiener–Granger causality,bidirectional causation between money supply and nominal output were detected. Inflation in Malaysia is essentially a monetary phenomenon. The empirical findings suggest that by controlling money supply, the central bank might be able to successfully maintain price stability at producer's level but not at consumer's level unless narrow money stock is bring targeted. Serious attempts by the central bank to tighten money supply could have a strong feedback on real output and even instaneous impact on nominal output     

Multivariate cointegration and causality tests of Wagner's hypothesis: evidence from the UK

The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of omitted variables in testing the long run validity of Wagner's hypothesis. Using UK data for the period 1948 to 1997, this paper first investigates the secular relationship between public spending and economic development in a bivariate system. In all cases considered, our bivariate cointegration tests indicate the absence of a long run equilibrium condition. However, the introduction of a third variable (money supply) re-establishes a cointegrating relationship between public expenditure and economic development variables. In addition, the results of the Granger's multivariate causality test indicate a unidirectional causality from income and money supply to public spending in the long run, thus providing support for Wagner's hypothesis.     

Stock prices and long-run demand for money: evidence from Malaysia

This paper investigates the money demand function for Malaysia in the 1971-1996 period using the multivariate cointegration and error correction model methodology. The results suggest that a stable long-run relationship exist between real M2, the interest rate differential, income and stock prices. Stock prices have a significant negative substitute effect on long-run as well as short-run broad-money demand (M2) and its omission can lead to serious misspecification in the money demand function. The analysis from the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality tests find that money is endogenous and that there is at least a unidirectional relationship between stock prices and real M2. Stock prices Granger cause real M2 indirectly through income between interest rates and stock prices and stock prices and money stock. This paper comes to the conclusion that due to the endogeneity of money, M2 cannot be completely controlled by Malaysia's central bank. Therefore, in formulating future monetary policy, the response of money demand to stock prices should be considered.     

Does “hot money” drive China's real estate and stock markets?

The paper investigates the extent of the impact from “hot money” or speculative capital inflow on the fluctuations of China's real estate market and stock market. The results indicate that hot money has driven up property prices as well as contributed to the accelerating volatilities in both markets due to its enormous size and its short-term characteristic of investing. In particular, we find that hot money ranks as the second largest contributor in the fluctuations of China's real estate prices. In the “risky” regime, which corresponds to more inflows and higher volatility of hot money, the effects are even more prominent.     

Money–output Granger causal dynamics in China

This paper attempts to investigate the time-varying causal dynamics between China's money and output by using a Markov switching causality approach. Unlike the pre-specified break points and rolling-window methods, the Markov switching causality approach can capture the time-varying causality patterns endogenously. Our empirical results show that there are bidirectional time-varying Granger causalities between China's money and output. On the one hand, the money supply Granger-causes output when the economy is overheated or during recession, whilst it has no significant effect on output when the economy grows moderately; the short term interest rate only has temporary effect on output, suggesting the ineffectiveness of the interest rate based monetary policy. On the other hand, output only affects the money supply in short periods, whilst the feedback of output on the short term interest rate has distinct regime switching features, which implies that the nonlinear Taylor rule targeting on the short term interest rate is more appropriate than the McCallum rule in describing China's monetary policy reaction function.     

Testing the efficiency of the Athens Stock Exchange: Some results from the banking sector

In this study we test the efficient market hypothesis in the Athens Stock Exchange for a number of selected stocks from the banking sector. We distinguish between a “weak” and “semistrong” version of the hypothesis depending on the agents' information sets. For the “weak” version we apply a recently developed test by Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (1987) to test for the presence of nonlinear structure in the residuals of rates of return regressions of these stocks. To test the “semistrong” form of the efficiency hypothesis we carry out tests of cointegration following the methodology of Granger and Engle (1987). We find no noticeable presence of nonlinearties in the standardized residuals for these series. Also we find no evidence of cointegration and hence no Granger causality between the different stocks. Our findings support the “weak” and “semi-strong” versions of the efficient market hypothesis.     

Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework

The theoretical association of money supply and exchange rates with prices has been empirically established and shown to be dominant in explaining changes in price levels in India. However, post liberalisation, studies have shown price levels to be impacted by several other factors as also, weakened influence of the traditional factors established by theories. This study aims to find the determinants of price level for the period 1994–2008 using a Vector Autoregression model and test the predictive ability of the model. Our results show shorter and smaller impact of change in money supply and nominal effective exchange rate on price levels. Both money supply and nominal effective exchange rates are found to Granger-cause Consumer Price Index. But, impulse response functions show that the impact of shocks from money supply and nominal effective exchange rates on consumer prices peaks after two lags and is short-lived. Forecast error variance decomposition shows that these demand side factors contribute only 6 % of the forecast error variation in Consumer Price Index.

     

The East-West German gap in revenue productivity:Just a tale of output prices?

East German manufacturers’ revenue productivity is substantially below West German levels, even three decades after German unification. Using firm-product-level data with product quantities and prices, we analyze the role of product specialization and show that the prominent “extended work bench hypothesis” cannot explain these sustained productivity differences. Eastern firms specialize in simpler product varieties generating less consumer value and being manufactured with less or cheaper inputs. Yet, such specialization cannot explain the productivity gap because Eastern firms are physically less productive for given product prices. Hence, there is a genuine price-adjusted physical productivity disadvantage of Eastern compared to Western firms.JEL: D24, L11, L2, O47     

经济发展、结构变化与“货币消失”——兼对“中国之谜”的再解释

2 0世纪 90年代中后期以来 ,中国的“超额”货币供给与宏观经济运行表现出了新的特点。本文试图利用发展经济学方法 ,从“货币消失”问题入手 ,对这一时期经济增长、货币供给与通货膨胀之间的关系进行解释。我们发现 ,中国经济的两部门特点导致了阻碍经济发展的“结构约束”与“需求约束”。而“中国之谜”出现的新特点 ,很大程度上正是经济运行内在机制的变化在货币方面的反映。