美国核电工业稳步发展

美国核电工业兴起于50年代,到(?)年代核电工业已有30年历史,发展成全美电力主要能源之一。1972年核电仅占总电力的2％,当时石油发电占16％。1981年核电超过石油发电,1983年超过天然气发电,1984年超过水电。现在核电仅次于煤发电,为美国发电的     

加拿大的电力及大停电后的措施

加拿大的电力归口联邦政府自然资源部能源总司管理。加拿大是世界上第六大电力生产国、最大的水电生产国，也是发电种类最多的国家之一。加拿大的电力资源包括水电、天然气、油、煤、核能和日益增加的可再生能。     

中国电源结构调整的新思路——基于优先成本的视角

将企业成本最小化目标与碳夹点分析技术相结合,以优先成本作为中国电源结构调整的依据。以2010年为基准年份、以2020年为目标年份,提出了中国电力部门进行电源结构调整的新思路。研究结果表明:水电的优先成本最低,其次是天然气发电和新型煤电,因此应优先发展这三类电源;尽管可再生能源发电具有较高的环境效益,但是其优先成本较高,若不对之加大支持力度,则2020年之前中国可再生能源发电的市场份额不会增加。     

基于能流图的广东能源供应安全分析

能源供应安全是地区经济社会发展的重要保障.文章基于调整后的广东省能源平衡表绘制广东2008年能流图,从能源供应、中间转换及终端能源消费的能源流动全过程分析影响广东能源供应安全的要素.结论表明:(1)广东能源供给对外依存度高,除天然气外各能源品种均需依赖省外调入或国外进口,能源安全系统存在较大风险.(2) 2008年广东能源中间转换总效率约为76.3％.电力生产效率是能源转换效率最低的环节,仅为36.9％.(3)工业、交通运输与居民生活用能是广东终端能源消费的主体,油制品、电力、原煤是主要的用能品种.为保障广东能源供应安全,短期来看,应积极开发国内外资源市场,充分利用已有的核电产业优势、天然气生产能力,改善一次能源供应结构,优化电力生产的燃料构成,加大天然气在发电燃料中的比重;长期来看,保障能源供应安全仍在于降低终端能源需求,从调整工业内部行业结构、加快产品技术升级、提高公路运输的单位能效,增强居民节能意识、营造节能型社会等理念出发,广东仍有较大的节能空间.     

山东省能源要素产出弹性、替代弹性的实证研究——基于超越对数生产函数的岭回归估计

构建了一个包含煤炭、石油、天然气和电力4种能源投入要素及时间趋势变量的超越对数生产函数,实证检验了1979—2009年山东省各能源要素的产出弹性、替代弹性及技术进步差异。结果表明:自改革开放以来,山东省的能源要素投入系统存在中性技术进步,技术进步率呈逐年递增趋势;山东省各能源要素的产出弹性逐年提高,按其均值由高到低排序依次是电力、石油、煤炭和天然气;1979—2009年期间煤炭与石油、煤炭与电力、石油与电力以及天然气与电力的替代弹性均大于1,石油与天然气的替代弹性虽然小于1,但自2000年后逐渐增大;山东省各能源要素的技术进步差异较小,按能源要素的技术进步率由高到低排序依次是煤炭、石油、电力和天然气。     

以闽台电力电网及金马先行试点作为两岸融合发展之契机

有鉴于大陆经济崛起,能源需求殷切,新兴能源产业的发展如核能、风能、太阳能、绿建筑等产业之发展潜力相当大.而台湾地区2014年进口能源依存度为97.75％,石油进口能源依存度更高达99.98％,如果能源供应不足或中断,就会形成台湾地区安全问题.因应全球气候变迁,发展节能科技并推动洁净能源已是世界潮流趋势,“节能减碳”更是当前两岸产业发展所亟待克服之共同问题.基载发电之供应短缺,将会影响电网供电之稳定.虽然再生能源-低碳排放发电可降低碳排放并可减少基载发电之需求,但如何稳定能源及基载电力之供应,已成为两岸当前最棘手的问题.     

日本综合商社的全球战略

天然气被称为"绿色能源",日本最开始使用天然气是1979年从阿联酋把天然气运到日本.从那以后日本利用天然气作为发电原料的比例逐年增加,到现在为止已经占到日本发电原料的27%.     

缅甸电力开发现状与投资机遇

缅甸电力生产主要由天然气发电、水力发电、蒸汽发电和柴油发电等四个部分组成。１９８８年军政府上台以前,缅甸电力装机容量为９８２兆瓦,年发电总量为２１.１７亿千瓦时。为满足全国各行各业对电力的需求,发展缅甸工业,军政府采取各种措施,增加电力生产。目前,缅甸装机容量己达到１５７２兆瓦,比１９８８年增加了６０%。其中缅甸电力公司为１２０７兆瓦,占７７%,缅甸其他组织为３６５兆瓦,占２３%。缅甸电力装机容量进入９０年代以来,缅甸全国电力总装机容量增长指数为１２７.２%,其中水力发电增长指数为１２６．２%,水蒸汽发电增长指数为…     

德国电力市场的自由化

德国电力和天然气部门的特点就是,企业数量众多(约有上千家),市政当局积极参与。与市政当局签署的排他性特许合同和划界协议成了竞争的绊脚石。市政公司参与天然气的配送、发电、辅电及其他业务,譬如公共传输。大多数能源供应商过去各自占有界限明确     

关于天然气发电价格形势研究

发电用天然气的合理定价对于天然气发电厂十分重要,对于中国有廉价能源——煤炭可利用的情况下,更为重要。分析中国天然气市场的价格特点,还有天然气发电情况等等。可见天然气的价格对于发电影响越来越重要。     

ASSESSING THE INTEGRATION OF ELECTRICITY MARKETS USING PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS: NETWORK AND MARKET STRUCTURE EFFECTS

Market power in electricity wholesale spot markets is more likely if there is market segmentation. We show that principal component analysis is a natural tool for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of the presence of local markets. We study whether the New Zealand market has been a national market or a set of local markets since its inception in 1996 and find that increased competition induced some segmentation that was eliminated by transmission enhancement and the introduction of generation downstream from the constrained circuits. Transmission investment policy that ensures one market will contribute to the efficiency of electricity, water, and related other markets. ( JEL D4, L1, L4)     

核电的经济特性及其安全性管制的有效性分析

核电是一种清洁能源,在能源供给方面具有很大优势,但核电存在巨大的安全风险。核电的经济特性决定了核电安全管制需求。以管制经济学为研究视角,本文将核电安全性管制措施分为行政强制手段为主的直接安全性管制和以经济手段为主的间接安全性管制两大类。研究发现,核电企业投入和安全管制检查频次与事故发生概率密切相关。核电企业的安全投入会随着安全隐患风险程度的增加而增加,并且也会随着被发现安全隐患事件带来企业损失的增加而增加。核电企业因被管制检查发现的安全隐患所承受的损失太小是造成安全管制检查失效或产生负面效应的根源。据此,本文提出相应的政策建议,以提高核电安全性管制的有效性。     

Elasticity of substitution and technical efficiency: evidence from the US electricity generation

ABSTRACT

The implications of national or regional energy policies for technical efficiency and environmental outcomes in electricity generation depend on fossil fuel input substitution. This study uses state level data to examine fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) substitution in electricity generation under increased availability of natural gas in the United States. We observe that changes in elasticities of substitution from pre-2009 to post-2009 differ across states suggesting that the effects of increased availability of inexpensive natural gas on electricity generation have been spatially heterogeneous. We rely on the observed heterogeneity to assess the effects of fossil fuel input substitution on technical efficiency and CO₂ emissions. The results reveal that state level elasticity of substitution between natural gas and coal has a positive effect on technical efficiency and a negative effect on CO₂ emissions. Therefore, future policy design and analyses should reflect the implications for regional elasticities of fossil fuel substitution and associated environmental outcomes.     

Liberalizing the energy markets of Western Europe – a computable equilibrium model approach

Using a computable equilibrium model, the short-run effects of a radical liberalization of the West European natural gas and electricity markets are examined. In each model country, oil, gas, coal and electricity are produced, traded and consumed. There are world markets for oil and coal, and well-integrated competitive markets for gas and electricity in Western Europe. Gas and electricity are transported and traded across markets under the assumption of ideal third-party access regimes for transportation and limited capacities in the transportation networks. It is found that relative to the data year 1996, radical liberalization reduces the average end-user price of natural gas by around 20%, and the average end-user price of electricity by around 50%. The supply of electricity increases by around 20%, mainly due to increased coal power production. After such liberalization, coal power emerges with the largest market share of electricity production in Western Europe.     

THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN POWER DILEMMA*

From 1984 gas‐fired power generation had been gradually increasing its share of the electricity market in Western Australia (WA) starting at 1 per cent and rising to about 50 per cent by 2008. Had it continued on this trajectory, the WA power system would have made great advances in terms of cost and environmental efficiencies given the looming commencement of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in Australia from 2011. However, more recently the cost of natural gas has increased from $3/GJ to $7/GJ following the sudden collapse of the East Spar gas field in the North West Shelf. In this article, we analyse the impact of the gas price increase and demonstrate that despite being the most environmentally efficient conventional technology, natural gas combined cycle plant has been squeezed out of the market which in turn will increase forward electricity price risks to WA consumers through greater exposure to CO₂ pricing in the long run.     

出力不确定下基于保险机制的风电供应链 最优交易决策

随着新一轮电力体制改革的日益推进,参与电力市场竞争是消纳风电等可再生能源的必经之路。由于风电出力受风速等自然条件影响,出力具有较强不确定性,导致其实际出力难以预测,使得风电商参与电力市场面临巨大的收益风险。合理地转移风电商的市场风险,引入有效的风险规避机制,对提高风电商收益稳定性具有重要意义。因此本文基于电量损失保险机制,建立了风电商、售电公司以及保险公司的Stackelberg博弈模型,通过逆向递归法求解纳什均衡,分析保险费率与市场三方利润之间的关系,得出市场主体风电商、售电公司以及保险公司的最优交易决策。最后通过具体算例分析验证得出,引入电量保险机制,制定适当的保险费率,能够使风电商、售电公司以及保险公司三方利益实现共赢。     

The industrial life cycle of wind energy electrical power generation: ARI methodology modeling of life cycle dynamics

This innovation assessment addresses the factors that have influenced the exceptionally lengthy industrial technology life cycle of wind electrical power generation since its inception in the late 19th Century. It then applies the recently developed Accelerated Radical Innovation (ARI) Model to understand the dynamics of this innovation compared to those of other major 18th-20th Century innovations.Despite market pull in the late 19th Century to link small DC electrical generators with hundreds of thousands of existing wind mills used for mechanical water pumping, several factors prevented this from happening. These include the intermittent nature of wind electrical generation requiring low cost battery storage and DC-AC conversion, and the shift in the 1890s from DC to superior AC electrical generation making possible economies of scale for delivering AC electricity long distances over the grid from large hydroelectric and coal fired plants. As a consequence, wind generated electricity remained primarily a technological development until the first energy crisis in the 1970s.Development of an extensive science and technology base for wind turbine dynamics, and deployment since 2000 of commercial scale wind turbines (> 1MW) have elevated wind electrical power generation to commercial practicality, as described in two earlier papers by the authors applying technical cost modeling and experience curve projections of cost of energy (COE) to explore the economic viability of large scale wind electricity generation.. Strongly promoted by wind energy communities of practice in Europe, North America and Asia, normative COE projections suggest that by 2020 wind electrical power will be cost competitive, without tax incentives, with electricity from conventional fossil and nuclear fuel sources.Overcoming technological, business, market, societal, networking and political hurdles to date has required 120years of development to establish wind electricity generation as a breakthrough innovation with the capability to capture 20% of the world electricity market by the mid-to-late 21st Century. Further growth and maturation is expected to continue to 2100, corresponding to a projected ≅ 210year overall industry life cycle at market saturation. This finding has profound implications for innovation theory and practice, since the length of this life cycle exceeds by a factor of ≅ 4 the average life cycle diagnosed for five industrial revolutions and four key 20th Century innovations. The new ARI model provides a holistic approach to understanding the dynamics of the industrial technology life cycle for a wide variety of radical innovations as well as wind electrical power.     

Cogeneration and electric power industry restructuring

In 1978, Congress passed the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) in response to the energy crisis of the early 1970s. One of the unintended results of PURPA has been to show that electric generation was not a natural monopoly and could be opened to competition. Both the theoretical and empirical determinants of cogeneration and how they may be affected by future electric power industry restructuring are important for future industrial generation decisions. This paper explores these determinants and identifies differences between industrial cogenerators which sell power back into the electricity grid (commercial generators) and those which keep all of their electricity generation for internal purposes (self generators). The empirical results indicate that increases in industrial firm technical capabilities tends to increase their probabilities of both commercial and self generating. In addition, the models indicate that increases in retail electricity prices and industrial output increases industrial generation probabilities. The ability to switch fuels enhances industrial generation probabilities, as does a decrease in the price of natural gas. The results also imply that under electric restructuring a number of industrial generators may find that they face a stranded cost problem much like the one faced by their electric utility counterparts.     

Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

Scenario development in China's electricity sector

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in (vol.) of this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.