基于商品期货价格的通货膨胀预测研究

利用商品期货价格对中国通货膨胀进行了实证分析和预测。研究发现,大宗商品期货价格对PPI和CPI的变动具有显著影响。回测结果表明,模型对PPI和CPI的短期预测能力相对良好,对中长期预测的误差虽有增大,但预测走势与实际走势大体一致。在此基础上对下一步通胀走势进行分析后发现:2022年PPI将呈现逐步回落趋势;短期内CPI有小幅上升的可能,未来一年内将回落至较低水平震荡。由于期货价格无法预测到中长期产业政策变动,因此预测模型无法捕捉到个别月份的大幅波动,但在趋势判断上仍有一定参考价值。     

The market quality of commodity futures markets

To study the market quality of commodity futures markets, we construct a commodity futures market quality index from the perspective of liquidity, efficiency, and volatility. Based on the market quality index, the Chinese commodity futures market operates steadily. The metal futures market is more efficient and stable than the market for agricultural futures. The Chinese commodity futures market is less liquid and more volatile than the U.S. market. We examine the determinants of market quality and find that macroeconomic variables and futures market contracts are significantly related to the market quality of Chinese commodity futures.     

The untold story of commodity futures in China

We investigate the behavior of commodity futures risk premia in China. In the presence of retail-dominance and barriers-to-entry, the term structure and momentum premia remain persistent, whereas hedging pressure, skewness, volatility, and liquidity premia are distorted by time-varying margins and strict position limits. Furthermore, open interest, currency, and inflation premia are sensitive to institutional settings. The observed premia cannot be attributed to common risks, sentiment, transactions costs, or data-snooping, but are related to liquidity, anchoring, and regulation-induced limits-to-arbitrage. We highlight the distinctive features of Chinese futures markets and assess the challenges posed to theories of commodity risk premia.     

Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain

This paper examines equity return predictability using the returns of commodity futures along the supply chain in China's financial market. We find that a considerable number of commodities exhibit significant in‐sample forecasting ability at the daily horizon, especially for supplier‐side equity returns. The macroeconomic risk premium effect, captured by the aggregate commodity prices, is an important source for this predictability. The out‐of‐sample results show that for most commodities, the predictability remains both statistically and economically significant, and the forecasting performance improves substantially during recessions or with economic constraints.     

股指期货对股票市场的影响分析

中国股票市场发展至今已有近18年的历史,多年来,由于缺乏有效的风险对冲工具,市场一直处于一条腿走路的尴尬局面.而股指期货的推出必将对股票市场产生重大影响,本文将就此做简要的分析.     

Sentiment-dependent impact of funding liquidity shocks on futures market liquidity

We examine the effect of funding liquidity changes on futures market liquidity, depending on economic sentiment. Futures market liquidity improves following negative funding liquidity shocks, and economic sentiment is an important determinant explaining this relationship. While individuals' trading is most significantly affected by sentiment, its response to funding liquidity shocks remains independent of sentiment effects. Domestic institutions' reactions depend on the sentiment regime; they trade futures contracts more actively as funding liquidity becomes more abundant (scarcer) when sentiment is more pessimistic (optimistic). Foreigners, following negative funding liquidity shocks, generally increase their futures trading, whereas their trading decreases under the extremely pessimistic sentiment. Domestic banks and pension funds provide liquidity to the futures market even when sentiment is pessimistic.     

The quantile dependence of commodity futures markets on news sentiment

Focusing on energy commodities, industrial metals, and gold, this paper examines the degree to which commodity futures returns depend on news sentiment under various market conditions, and the structure of that dependence. We observe an asymmetric market reaction to positive and negative news sentiment, which changes in periods of financial turmoil. The quantile regression analysis shows that news sentiment's influence on the futures returns follows an upward trend at higher percentiles. This structure flattens for positive news during the global financial crisis, while the slope for the negative component steepens in backwardation periods.     

The impact of the US stock market opening on price discovery of government bond futures

We examine price discovery in sequential markets for the 10-year US Treasury note, German bund, and UK gilt futures over the period 2010–2017. We find that price discovery increases after the opening of the US stock market. Order flows in the bond futures markets are more informative for permanent price changes in the 30-min period after the US stock market opens. A placebo test using US statutory holidays confirms our findings. A cross-market analysis suggests that the increased price discovery in the bond futures is related to returns and net order flows of the US stock market.     

Impact of bitcoin futures on the informational efficiency of bitcoin spot market

This study examines the informational efficiency of the bitcoin spot market by evaluating the predictive power of mechanical trading rules designed to exploit price continuation. Significant return predictability is found until the introduction of bitcoin futures in December 2017. The forecasting ability of trend‐chasing trading rules declines dramatically afterwards. Although evidence suggests that the introduction of bitcoin futures has increased the informational efficiency of the bitcoin spot market, no signs of improvement in informational efficiency are found in ethereum, the second‐largest cryptocurrency—following the introduction of bitcoin futures.     

我国商品期货市场弱式有效性实证研究

现以我国三个商品期货市场的主要交易品种合约为研究对象,运用单位根检验、序列相关检验对期货收益率进行实证分析,其结果表明我国所有期货品种的价格时间序列满足一阶单整过程,棉花、铜期货品种的收益率时间序列服从随机游走过程,而大豆、豆粕、天胶、硬麦四个期货品种的收益率时间序列存在3阶自相关,我国商品期货市场整体上尚未达到弱式有效。     

The impact of trading restrictions and margin requirements on stock index futures

Stock index futures in Chinese market have consistently diverged from their theoretical values. In this paper, we try to provide some explanations by proposing an equilibrium model. Although the model itself does not provide analytical solutions, it enables us to conduct extensive numerical studies and compare them with our empirical results on two major Chinese market indices, CSI300 and SSE50. Our results show that the divergence of stock index futures prices from their theoretical values may be due to various trading and regulatory constraints, such as position limits and margin requirements, which play significant roles in Chinese market.     

The impact of soft intervention on the Chinese financial futures market

During the 2015 financial crisis in China, participants faced the criticism that manipulators and shorts had destabilized the market. As a result, the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission intervened sequentially in the spot market and then in the futures market. Trading volume dropped precipitously. Using the cost-of-carry model, we find that these actions significantly impacted equilibrium pricing. Following intervention in the spot market, mispricing was attenuated but remained significant after further intervention in the futures market. We use the Hong Kong market and a difference-in-differences statistic to address the role of the China Securities Regulatory Commission soft intervention versus intervention by hard rules.     

When trading options is not the only option: The effects of single-stock futures trading on options market quality

We use the 2008 short-selling ban to examine the impact of single-stock futures (SSFs) trading on options market quality. We show that there is a substitution effect between options trading and SSFs trading during the ban period. In addition, our results show that SSFs trading had a significant effect in narrowing the bid-ask spreads of options contracts. Moreover, compared to stocks without SSFs, stocks with SSFs were less likely to violate put-call parity during the ban period. Our results suggest that SSFs trading helps mitigate the negative effect of the short-selling ban on options market quality documented in the literature.     

人民币利率对汇率影响的实证研究：1981—2003

定量分析人民币利率对汇率长期走势与短期波动的影响,对于中国利率市场化与汇率制度选择等问题意义重大.对时间序列变量进行单位根检验、协整检验,以及建立误差修正模型等实证研究表明:无论在长期还是短期,人民币利率对汇率都是反向影响.长期内,利率对人民币汇率存在较强的影响;短期内,利率对人民币汇率影响较弱.我国利率主要还是通过商品市场间接地对汇率产生作用.     

The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.