Diffusion and competitive relationship of mobile telephone service in Guatemala: An empirical analysis

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the characteristics of diffusion process of mobile telephone service and the competitive relationships between mobile and fixed-line services in Guatemalan telecommunications market. We investigated the best-suited model to explain the diffusion process of mobile telephone in Guatemala by estimating diffusion curves using empirical data. Moreover, we explored affecting factors which characterize the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Guatemala through statistical analysis. Finally, in order to understand the effects of competition in the diffusion process of Guatemalan mobile phone service, we attempted to clarify the competitive relationship between mobile and fixed-line services using the Lotka-Volterra model. As a result, the logistic model was found to be the best model for describing the diffusion pattern. Moreover, investment in telecommunications, the subscribers of fixed-line services, and the number of operators in mobile market were found as significant determinants of mobile diffusion process. Results from the Lotka-Volterra model showed that the relationship between mobile and fixed-line services has changed from pure competition to amensalism.     

Mobile voice diffusion and service competition: A system dynamic analysis of regulatory policy

Dynamic behavior in mobile telecommunications markets is often the result of interactions between market actors. As the structure and dynamic complexity of such interactions tend to be difficult to identify, it is challenging for regulators to anticipate the effects of their policy decisions. This article uses system dynamics to evaluate the effect of technology harmonization and mobile number portability policies on mobile voice diffusion and service competition. This is realized by first modeling the endogenous feedback structure resulting in dynamic behavior in the mobile telecommunications market and then by configuring the model for retrospective simulations of the Finnish market. Based on the retrospective simulations, the effect of technology harmonization and mobile number portability policy decisions is analyzed and the usefulness of system dynamics is demonstrated.     

Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan

Mobile telephony penetration is a major indicator of mobile telephony diffusion. Taiwan had a mobile telephony penetration of 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. This study analyzes this accelerated diffusion in terms of growth model and determinants of the diffusion rate. To eliminate the inherent uncertainty associated with choosing the optimal growth model, this study compares the performance of three conventional models, namely Gompertz, Logistic and Bass, to identify the most appropriate model, and to distinguish the forces driving the diffusion rate. Empirical results indicate that the most appropriate model is the Logistic model. Network externalities, which this study shows to be the same as the imitation effect in the Bass model, explain the superiority of the Logistic model. Moreover, market competition, which markedly reduces service prices, is identified as a primary driver of the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Taiwan. Economic conditions, technological innovation and number of operators are insignificant factors. Finally, mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed-line telephony in Taiwan.     

Quality-adjusted international price comparisons of mobile telecommunications services

Many countries' policymakers have conducted international price comparisons of mobile telecommunications services to prevent service operators from overcharging subscribers. However, those comparisons have become more complicated because of the escalation in service usage and telecommunications expenditures spurred by the proliferation of smartphones and broadband LTE wireless internet service networks. The basket-based methodologies that have been widely used for international price comparisons are also limited—first, because the baskets for comparison may not be representative of actual service usage patterns in some countries; second, because they are difficult to apply to highly differentiated service plans due to the significant increase in wireless internet service usage and widely used plans with unlimited voice call service and SMS/MMS; and third, because they cannot consider the quality of service, such as upload and download speed in various service environments, at all. As an alternative, this paper proposes a hedonic pricing model that accounts for service quality and its variation in potentially disruptive environments, as well as fixed charge for a mobile phone additional to the price of service plans. The model was used to derive quality-adjusted price indices of mobile telecommunications services for twelve cities in ten countries with broadband LTE wireless internet service. The empirical results confirmed that the price index of each city varied significantly across the specifications,—both within the United States and internationally—depending on whether the model was constructed to reflect service quality and its variation on roads, in buildings, and in subways. The price index of each city also varied depending on whether the subsidized price of a mobile phone was considered part of the monthly price of a service plan. These results have important implications for policymakers seeking to understand the ultimate level of mobile telecommunication service prices for their country in a global context.     

Impacts of mobile Internet use intensity on the demand for SMS and voice services of mobile network operators: An empirical multi-method study of German mobile Internet customers

Scholarly and business publications alike convey the message that past and future strong growth in mobile Internet (MI) access and service demand has solely positive commercial implications for mobile network operators (MNOs). This position neglects the possibility that increasing MI use intensity may lead to demand decreases for the highly profitable short messaging service (SMS) and mobile voice telephony. The extant literature provides few insights on relations between MI use intensity, on the one hand, and SMS as well as mobile voice call use intensities, on the other hand. This study developed hypotheses concerning the presence or absence of impacts of MI use intensity and circumstances of MI use (e.g., device type, tariff scheme) on the demand for SMS and mobile voice telephony at the individual customer level. The hypotheses were tested by analyzing actual use behaviors of 304 MI adopters in Germany, for whom objective use intensity data were extracted from the billing system of an MNO. These non-reactive measures were combined with responses collected from the adopters through a telephone survey. Multivariate regression results suggest that though MI use intensity significantly negatively affected both number of SMS sent and received, these effects were so small that their practical relevance is highly doubtful. Further, customers who used MI more intensively did not generate lower volumes of outgoing or incoming mobile voice connection minutes. Conclusions are drawn for MNO, telecommunications sector regulators and scholarly researchers seeking to explain the acceptance of mobile communications services.     

An analysis of the disruptive impact of the entry of Free Mobile into the French mobile telecommunications market

The issue of disruptive operators has recently gained interest among researchers and regulators. From a regulator's perspective, disruptive operators can increase competitive rivalry in markets dominated by a handful of large companies, thereby allowing consumers to obtain more benefits in terms of price and quality. Largely overlooked in this discussion has been the impact that the specific identity, complementary assets of operators, and their strategies have on the marketplace dynamics. In this paper we explore the impact that one such operator – Free Mobile – has had on the French mobile telecommunications market. Drawing on a wide range of secondary sources, our analysis finds that the entry and subsequent growth of Free Mobile has had a complex and multi-faceted impact on the market. Their growth has been at the expense of the other three mobile network operators active in the French market, while their innovative business model, which enables it to compete on the basis of low costs, has been copied by its rivals. The specific characteristics of Free Mobile and of its strategy have contributed to a significantly alteration to how competition occurs in this market. This, in turn, triggers a strong incentive for restructuring, which is actually restrained by regulatory concerns.     

The impact of regulating mobile termination rates and MNO-MVNO relationships on retail prices

A mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) provides mobile telecommunication services by eluding the constraints of the radio communication infrastructure and establishing an agreement with a hosting network operator (HNO) for the use of its spectrum. Thus, MVNOs offer a wide range of mobile services and directly compete with every mobile network operator (MNO). This paper studies the economic justifications for potential regulatory intervention that defines the level of mobile termination rates (MTRs) and negotiations and agreements among MVNOs and HNOs. The results show that symmetric MTR reduction leads to competition growth among operators, forcing every operator to reduce retail prices and, consequently, to enhancing consumer welfare. The paper also finds that a collaborative strategy adopted by an HNO and an MVNO is advantageous for both and induces a reduction in retail prices, thus weakening other MNOs.     

Regulation and competition in the European mobile communications industry: An examination of the implementation of mobile number portability

Over the past two decades, the mobile communications industry has seen a considerable drop in the consumer switching charges made by service providers in order to promote effective competition and ensure a level playing field for new market entrants. Mobile Number Portability (MNP) is an important regulatory measure taken to reduce switching costs, and it is believed to play an important role in fostering competition in the mobile market. MNP implementation has varied significantly across European Union countries, particularly with respect to porting time and customer fees, both of which are important factors when deciding whether to switch to another provider. The research examines the effects of MNP implementation on competition in the European mobile communications industry. The study findings indicate that subscriber churn rates are negatively affected by both the level of charges levied on subscribers wishing to maintain their current number (porting) when switching mobile providers and the length of time required to switch. The implications of the effectiveness of MNP regulation for competition in the mobile communications industry are discussed.     

Entering the mobile service market via mobile platforms: Qualcomm's BREW platform and Nokia's Preminet platform

The mobile telecommunication market has evolved from simple voice to multimedia services. In the past, the primary players in mobile services were local operators in different countries; international telecommunication vendors, such as Qualcomm and Nokia, were seldom involved in the mobile service market. In order to enter this market, Qualcomm and Nokia have separately introduced their mobile application platforms, called respectively BREW and Preminet. This paper examines how the two companies attempt to share the mobile service market through their mobile platforms and internationalized business models. This paper also analyzes their mobile platforms’ business models and their strategic implications.     

The diffusion of mobile data services and applications: Exploring the role of habit and its antecedents

Given the prevalence of mobile data services and applications (MDSA) such as App Store, it is important to diffuse MDSA and understand user behavior toward it. Recent research on marketing and information systems (IS) has shed light on the habitual use of frequently used IS. This study attempts to develop a research model that clarifies the role of habit in the actual use of MDSA. Considering the unique and specific characteristics of MDSA, this study examines the antecedents of MDSA habit in an effort to elucidate key factors accelerating the development of MDSA habitual use. Data collected from 317 users who had prior experiences with MDSA were empirically tested against the research model using partial least squares (PLS). The analysis results indicate that both continuance intention and habit play an important role in the actual use of MDSA. Moreover, the findings reveal that habit is a more prevalent predictor of actual use compared to conscious intention. It was found that user satisfaction, perceived monetary value, and variety of use serve as the antecedents of MDSA habit. The theoretical and policy implications of the findings are described.     

MVNO services: Policy implications for promoting MVNO diffusion

This study seeks to validate a comprehensive model of consumer acceptance in the context of MVNOs. While the MVNO business model has gained much popularity over the past few years, it shows a sign of drastic decrease. This study uses the unified theory of acceptance and the use of technology (UTAUT) model with constructs from the innovation diffusion theory (IDT) such as compatibility, relative advantage and social influence. Structural equation modeling is used to construct a predictive model of attitudes toward the MVNO services. While the model confirms the classical role of technology adoption factors (i.e., perceived usefulness and ease of use are key antecedents to consumers’ intention), the results also show that users’ intention and usage are influenced by IDT factors. The model brings together extant research on MVNO and provides an important cluster of antecedents to eventual technology acceptance via constructs of behavioral intention to use and to the actual MVNO usage. Policy implications of MVNO are discussed in terms of consumer adoption and market diffusion.     

Network effects and preference heterogeneity in the case of mobile telecommunications markets

This paper demonstrates how revealed- and stated-preference analyses can be used for modeling network effects in the field of mobile telecommunications. The aim of this study was to verify if network effects may still play a role in the Polish mobile telecommunications market, measure their strength, identify their sources and variability across consumers by accounting for consumers' observable and unobservable preference heterogeneity, evaluate their monetary value to consumers, and finally, to verify if the marginal utility associated with network effects is constant. The analysis of consumers' revealed choices (currently used mobile telephone operator) allowed the identification of major differences between customer bases of incumbent and new entrant operators, and insight into the business strategies adopted in the presence of asymmetric regulation of mobile termination rates. The second part of the study—the analysis of the consumers' stated choices (made in carefully prepared and designed hypothetical choice situations, known as the choice experiments) made it possible to directly model consumers' utility functions and, in this way, investigate the nature of network effects in mobile telecommunications markets. From the results, the presence of strong network effects, which are related to the ratio of consumers' social network group using the same operator, and to the magnitude of on-net price discounts, is confirmed. These network effects can be disaggregated to pecuniary and non-pecuniary effects. Through the utilization of the random parameters multinomial logit model, consumers' observable and unobservable preference heterogeneity can be accounted for, which proved a scientifically revealing and potentially policy-relevant approach. The results might be of a particular interest to other researchers aiming at modeling consumers' preferences as well as to mobile telephone operators and regulatory authorities—it is shown that capacity for vigorous price competition between mobile operators is limited by non-price factors, which affect subscriber's choices, especially in the presence of asymmetric mobile termination rates.     

Competitive behavior in the European mobile telecommunications industry: Pioneers vs. followers

This paper studies the relationship between competitive strategy and improvement in the competitive position of pioneers and followers in the mobile telecommunications industry. The analysis uses a panel of data comprising all the actions of European firms operating in the digital mobile telecommunications industry with GSM 900 and/or DCS 1800 networks. The results show that competitors gain market share when they follow competitive strategies that are different from those of other firms. The paper also finds that price reduction actions represent the best approach for followers, while differentiation actions are the most effective strategy for pioneers.     

Modelling and forecasting national introduction times for successive generations of mobile telephony

An accurate prediction of the timing of a country's introduction of a new generation of mobile telephony benefits numerous agents including suppliers of network and consumer equipment, regulators, and network planners. We consider the estimation and prediction of the time interval between the international introduction of a generation of mobile telephony and its introduction into a specific country when a decision maker judges the introduction of a newer technology a worthwhile investment. Using literature-based socio-economic and geographical variables, we examine how well variation in international introduction times of four generations of mobile telephony in 172 countries can be explained and forecast. We model and forecast introduction times at two levels of granularity: we use Cox's proportional hazards model for the introduction time; we partition countries into introduction time-based segments and model segment membership using multinomial logistic regression. Our modelling of each generation considers three subsets of explanatory variables: All variables, socio-economic Covariates only, Regional dummies only. Over successive generations, the Covariates only models reveal the changing relevance of each socio-economic covariate. Model-based forecasting of the introduction time of the next generation is performed under three hypotheses making different uses of the information available at the time the relevant generation is launched internationally. However, changing socio-economic environments coupled with changing models impair forecasting accuracy, the lower accuracy of modelled introduction times is concentrated in 20% of countries. We speculate about the nature of the unobserved factors affecting these countries' decision processes.     

Global political economy of technology standardization: A case of the Korean mobile telecommunications market

This paper examines empirical cases of standardization in the Korean mobile market as vehicles for approaching the broader political and institutional context of standardization in telecommunications. A consideration of Korean standardization in the mobile telecommunications market is particularly interesting because it reveals how the state's political interests influence standards decisions, which are primarily driven by market and technological changes in telecommunications. Judged from the social construction of technology perspective which sheds light not only on technology itself but also on political, social and economic interests that surround transformations in technology, this paper highlights power relations among the major actors that have made technology standards decisions in Korea regarding second (2G) and third-generation (3G) mobile telephony. The paper also attempts to show how the Korean government has dealt with the diverse interests of various market actors while pursuing its own policy agenda.     

Evaluation of mobile services and substantial adoption factors with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Emergence of new technological innovations in networks, platforms, and applications has enabled service providers to gain back their massive investment in their infrastructures. However, due to lagging adoption, many service innovations have failed to generate profit. The adoption of different mobile service categories depends on several factors. The current explorative study aims to use Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify the most relevant mobile services for consumers and the factors driving the adoption. The results of the AHP analyses indicate that functionality of services is of utmost important for the majority of respondents. The results reveal that basic mobile communication services are the most preferred ones, although several services within different categories are available. The results have important implications for mobile network operators, service and application providers on how to develop and implement specific mobile services. The current study also offers new insights for researchers by showing that AHP is applicable to analyze consumers' preferences.