Minimum Living Level and Consumer Price Index: What's in a name?

The Minimum Living Level (MLL) denotes the minimum financial requirements of members of a household to maintain an acceptable living standard, which is above the Poverty Line. Sufficient quantities of relevant expenditure items based on minimum health standards are allowed for when calculating the MLL, but rational expenditure on them is assumed. The MLL is measured in monetary value. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measurement of changes in the prices over time of a basket of typical consumer goods and services and is measured by an index or percentage. The basket of expenditure items used in the CPI depends on household expenditure surveys. This article sets out to differentiate between the MLL, CPI and the Poverty Line, since the latter and the MLL are sometimes used in the same context in South Africa.     

The information content of M3 for future inflation in the Euro area

The Information Content of M3 for Future Inflation in the Euro Area. — The information content of M3 for future inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of perspectives. Our results confirm that a significant positive association exists between the real money gap and future inflation up to five to six quarters ahead. It is also shown that, although the extended P-star model outperforms the rival model in some respect, the hypothesis that no useful information is contained in rival evidence can be rejected.     

When is the Price Cost Margin a Safe Way to Measure Changes in Competition?

The price cost margin (PCM) is a popular way to measure competition. Although we know that this measure is not without problems, we actually do not know how often and under which conditions a change in PCM points in the wrong direction. We use a new competition measure, the profit elasticity, which is more robust than PCM. Our empirical analysis based on Dutch data shows that when competition changes the probability that PCM points in the wrong direction increases with industry concentration.     

A cross-country comparison of the demand for labour in Europe

A Cross-Country Comparison of the Demand for Labour in Europe.-This paper investigates structural differences in the demand for labour in France, Germany, and the UK. It finds substantial differences in the sensitivity of the demand for labour to international product demand and factor prices in all three countries. In particular, it reacts to domestic factor prices in Germany but international cost competitiveness in France and the UK; it depends upon European-wide product demand in France and Germany and a wider measure of product demand in the UK. The authors attribute these differences to product market conditions and institutional factors rather than to differences in the production technology.     

Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes,Past and Present

The early‐twenty first century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places the most recent terms of trade boom in its historical context. While similarities exist with previous episodes, the macroeconomic policy frameworks and settings prevailing were quite different to those of the past. These different frameworks and settings mitigated the broader macroeconomic consequences of the terms of trade upswing and may do likewise as it declines.     

Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of inflation using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Annual changes in monthly inflation are decomposed into its trend, oscillatory and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Three cyclical components with differing amplitude and frequency are identified. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation. These core measures are compared with other candidate core measures based on the properties of a good core inflation measure. Generally, the SSA measures outperform commonly used measures of core inflation based on both in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance.     

The Effect of Subtracting a Constant from all Payoffs in a Hawk‐Dove Game: Experimental Evidence of Loss Aversion in Strategic Behavior

Economists and psychologists have documented patterns of individual decision‐making behavior (e.g., loss aversion) whereby losses and gains are treated differently. However, there has been little evidence of such patterns in multiplayer games. I report results showing the strongest evidence I know of that this phenomenon is present in games. Experimental subjects play two hawk‐dove games that are identical up to a constant; in one, all payoffs are positive, while in the other, payoffs are negative if and only if both players choose “hawk.” Under both fixed pairs and random matching, differences between the games are substantial, significant, and consistent with loss aversion.     

Real wage rigidities, accommodative demand policies, and the functioning of EMU

Real Wage Rigidities, Accommodative Demand Policies, and the Functioning of EMU. — The paper shows that the primacy of politics over economics in the decision to start EMU with eleven countries on January 1, 1999 could have serious consequences concerning the functioning and stability of EMU, in particular during the transition phase. The paper demonstrates empirically that real wages in EMU member countries are highly rigid by international comparison and that demand policies played a considerable role in absorbing adverse shocks in the past. Considering that real wages are unlikely to become much more flexible soon, and taking also into account that the use of demand policies in EMU is severely curtailed, it becomes clear that EMU will face a severe crisis if large asymmetric shocks do in fact occur.     

The response of long-term interest rates to news about monetary policy actions: Empirical evidence for the U.S. and Germany

The Response of Long-Term Interest Rates to News about Monetary Policy Actions. Empirical Evidence for the U.S. and Germany. — The authors reestimate the expectations theory of the term structure focusing on the question of how monetary policy actions indicated by changes in the very short rate affect long-term interest rates. Their main point is that the expectations hypothesis implies that very long rates should only react to unanticipated changes of the very short rate. In contrast to cointegration tests of expectations theory, this implication only requires rational expectations but not stationary risk premia. Therefore, its empirical test sheds new light on the importance of expectations theory for the determinants of the term structure of interest rates.     

P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany

P-Star as a Link between Money and Prices in Germany. — The equilibrium price levelP-Star is defined as money per unit of potential output at equilibrium velocity. Deviations betweenP-Star and the actual price level (price gap) serve as an indicator of future price movements. To measure equilibrium velocity and to take into account its downward trend in Germany, a long-run money demand function is integrated into theP-Star approach. According to the empirical results, the constructed measure ofP-Star provides a stable link between M3 and the price level. However, comparable evidence could not be established for Ml and M2.     

Financial innovation and the long-run demand for money in the United Kingdom and in West-Germany

Financial Innovation and the Long-Run Demand for Money in the United Kingdom and in West Germany. — This paper uses a cointegration model to compare the long-run demand for broad money in the UK and (West) Germany during the period 1963Q1–1990Q2. In the long-run demand function for Germany, real M3 is determined in classical manner by real income and a single opportunity cost variable. By contrast, the UK demand function requires in addition an explicit own rate on money as well as a risk variable. The income elasticity is also very high. These differences reflect the more rapid pace of financial innovation in the UK in the 1970s and 1980s.     

Mean Reversion in the Real Interest Rate and the Effects of Calculating Expected Inflation

We investigate the measured persistence in the real interest rate using a variety of methods to annualize inflation and calculate the real rate. Results from a battery of conventional unit root tests yield conflicting conclusions for the various real rates, adding to an existing confusion regarding mean reversion. Both long memory and exponential smooth‐transition autoregressive models (ESTAR) nonlinearity are considered as possible alternatives, and in contrast to the unit root test results, we find highly robust evidence against the unit root null. Based on the empirical results, Monte Carlo analysis is performed to study the disparate results obtained using fractional integration and unit root tests.     

我国农业产业结构调整效果测度指标体系研究

文章从我国农业产业结构调整的目标、要素市场、农产品市场三个角度出发,构建了农业产业结构调整效果测度指标体系。就构建原则、指标分析等相关问题作了重点研究,试图为我国农业产业结构调整效果的测度与评价提供一种思路与工具。     

我国收入分配差距扩大的成因、后果与对策

本文在概括已有关于收入分配差距的成因、后果与解决措施的同时,提出了一些新观点:根据模糊理论提出超广义资源概念,以超广义资源的观点提出了税收的理论和依据以及社会保障的理论依据分析了贫富差距加大带来的许多后果和社会保障对缩小收入分配差距的许多方面的好处,并且提出以社会保障来调节人力资源的工资待遇和住房价格。此外提出开辟中国第四产业—创新产业来缩小收入分配差距、解决就业,特别是大学生就业,发展我国科技。文中分析了市场经济中一些导致贫富差距加大的局限,认为政府和公众要对市场进行更多干预,并且提出职位资源的概念,限制工作的压力和发展富人消费来增加就业机会。     

Parameter instability, superexogeneity, and the monetary model of the exchange rate

Parameter Instability, Superexogeneity and the Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate. — This paper argues that failure to test for parameter time invariance yields misleading results. Time heterogeneity other than unit roots will make the parameters of the unrestricted system unstable and statistical inference invalid. However, if the instability stems from a particular subset of variables (superexogenous with respect to the parameters of interest), conditioning on them results in a partial model with stable parameters, and standard inferential procedures can then be used. We apply this methodology to test the monetary model of the exchange rate and find that both system and single-equation estimates support it in the case of yen-dollar exchange rate.     

Levels and Trends in U.S. Income and its Distribution: A Crosswalk from Market Income towards a Comprehensive Haig‐Simons Income Approach

Recent research on U.S. levels and trends in income inequality varies substantially based on how these studies measure income. We crosswalk (move between standards) from a market income of tax units to a more comprehensive measure of income including realized capital gains of households using a unified data set and replicate common findings in the literature. By using a comprehensive income definition in the spirit of Haig‐Simons, considering yearly accrued capital gains rather than focusing on the delayed reporting of capital gains that appear in Internal Revenue Service tax return data, the observed growth in income inequality and top income shares since 1989 is dramatically reduced.     

An econometric analysis of the main components of M3 in the Euro area

An Econometric Analysis of the Main Components of M3 in the Euro Area. — The main result is that the four components of M3 in the euro area can be explained in terms of a small set of explanatory variables (nominal GDP and interest rates) for the sample period January 1990 — September 1999 both in terms of levels and as shares of M3. Moreover, overall cointegration tests broadly support the hypothesis of long-run stability of the demand for the components of M3 and for M3 itself in nominal terms. Around the start of Stage Three of Monetary Union significant substitution between the components of M3 is detected. A refinement of the empirical analysis takes into account the correlation of the unexplained movements of the individual components using the SUR technique.     

我国船舶工业竞争力衡量指标体系构建分析

中国乃至全世界的船舶工业正在以信息技术为基础实现跨越式的发展,但是从我国船舶工业当前的整体发展水平看,还存在大而不强,国际综合竞争能力不高的问题。文章认为,要解决这些问题,就有必要对我国船舶工业的竞争力进行衡量,构建相应的竞争力衡量指标体系。     

Estimating the Associations between SNAP and Food Insecurity,Obesity, and Food Purchases with Imperfect Administrative Measures of Participation

Administrative data are considered the “gold standard” when measuring program participation, but little evidence exists on their potential problems or implications for econometric estimates. We explore these issues using the FoodAPS, a unique data set containing two different administrative measures of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation and a survey‐based measure. We document substantial ambiguity in the two administrative measures and show that they disagree with each other almost as often as they disagree with self‐reported participation. Estimated participation and misreporting rates can be meaningfully sensitive to choices made to resolve this ambiguity and disagreement. We explore sensitivity in regression estimates of the associations between SNAP and food insecurity, obesity, and the healthy eating index. The signs are unchanged across the three measures, and the estimates are mostly not statistically different from each other. However, there are some meaningful differences in the magnitudes and levels of statistical significance of the estimates.