State history and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from transition economies

In this paper, we analyze the growth effects of state history and financial development in transition economies. We show that accumulated experience with established statehood yields significant results and transforms the impact of finance on growth in East-Central Europe, Southeastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. State history as a proxy for long-run ancestral exposure to institutions, political organization and centralization negatively affects the finance-growth nexus. We argue that a long state history is likely to generate extractive institutions that facilitate the provision of soft budget constraints and thereby impair the finance-growth nexus.     

检视都市永续发展指针的发展历程与内涵:从指针系统建构到政策评估

本文回顾国际上相关的都市永续发展指针系统,探讨指针系统架构与内涵之间的差异,进而说明永续台湾评量系统中"都市台湾"指针系统的重要特色,以及指针项目选定的理论基础.藉由永续台湾评量系统中22个范畴的型态辨识,本文分析了都市在台湾永续发展中所扮演的角色,确认都市生产与生活型态对于整体永续发展的重要性,也验证了生态系统观点中都市对于环境的依存与影响.考量都市发展决策过程需要永续性的评量机制,本文利用都市永续发展指针作为政策评估的重要变量,应用交互式计算机软件<感受性系统模型(Sensitivitv Model Tools)>以系统性观点进行都市发展政策永续性的评析.透过系统软件功能掌握变量结构的完整性以及系统变量之间的相互影响关系,并藉助于团体咨询与讨论的沟通方式建构半量化的(semi-quantitative)系统变量,配合概念化及模糊化的方式界定变量水准以及函数关系进行系统仿真工作.籍由系统仿真了解变量之间的互动关系,而政策评估案例分析显示台北市硬件建设政策较空间调整政策发挥较大的效果.永续指针与系统工具的结合整体而言提供了都市政策永续性评估的沟通与预测接口.     

Aid dependence,sustainability and technical assistance Designing a monitoring and evaluation system in Tanzania David Hirschmann

This article demonstrates how aid dependence operates in very concrete terms in the process of consultancy and technical assistance. It draws on the author's experiences in preparing a monitoring and evaluation system for Tanzania's Local Government Reform Program. It illustrates how a comprehensive system of aid dependence, such as prevails in Tanzania, has meant that concern with local ownership, institutional development, affordability and sustainability appeared to find limited support among Tanzanian professionals and in-country donors. The article illustrates how the contradiction between the critically poor data collection system, which seems to demand realism and low cost as priorities and the comprehensive nature of foreign aid operates in four M&E design issues, namely institution building, ambition of performance indicators, pressures for rapid computerization and participatory methods. Finally the article draws a few concluding thoughts about the experience and its relationship to the debates on aid dependency and local ownership.     

Evaluating the impacts of government policy through the long view of life history

The research reported in this paper uses life history analyses of Indigenous entrepreneurs to address the following question: How do individuals engaged in entrepreneuring incorporate their experience of government policy into their self-narratives, and what affects are apparent on attitudes towards, and the objectives of, their entrepreneurial activity? Subsequently, the paper makes two contributions to conceptual debates within entrepreneurship and small business studies. Firstly, the paper shows the value of life history methodology narratives in providing insights into entrepreneuring processes over time, particularly in understanding how to evaluate the impact of enterprise animation policies. Secondly, the particular focus upon Indigenous entrepreneurs affords some purchase on recent debates relating to the purpose and potential of enterprise policies aimed at those defined as socially and economically excluded [Blackburn, R., and M. Ram. 2006. Fix of fixation? The contributions and limitations of entrepreneurship and small firms to combating social exclusion. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development 18, no. 1: 73–89]. The paper's findings show that life history analysis has an important role to play in developing our understanding of entrepreneurship as a process. Moreover, evaluations of enterprise policy should pay more attention to temporally extensive impacts on individuals over their life course, and not limit evaluative efforts to programme specific factors.     

On the inclusion of bivariate marked point processes in graphical models

Graphical models use graphs to represent conditional independence relationships among random variables of a multivariate probability distribution. This paper introduces a new kind of chain graph models in which nodes also represent marked point processes. This is relevant to the analysis of event history data, i.e. data consisting of random sequences of events or time durations of states. Survival analysis and duration models are particular cases. This article considers the case of two marked point processes. The idea consists of representing a whole process by a single node and a conditional independence statement by a lack of connection. We refer to the resulting models as graphical duration models.     

Spatial dependence,agglomeration externalities and the convergence of carbon productivity

By combining the extended slack based measurement (SBM) model directed distance function and the meta-constrained production function to measure China's carbon productivity, this paper studies the spatial spillover effects and convergence characteristics of carbon productivity. According to the results, carbon productivity showed obvious viscosity and spatial dependence in adjacent regions. China's carbon productivity had spatial conditional β-convergence and club convergence effects. Specifically, agglomeration externalities constituted an important mechanism for increasing carbon productivity and realizing the convergence thereof. Different agglomeration forms under different agglomeration degrees corresponded to different carbon productivity levels; with an increase in the degree of agglomeration, the emission reduction effect of specialized agglomeration diminished, while that of diversified agglomeration increased. Furthermore, depending on suitable agglomeration degrees, the emission reduction effect of specialized agglomeration could coexist with that of diversified agglomeration. In terms of regional distribution, in East China, both specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration presented relatively significant emission reduction effects. In contrast, in Central China and West China, only specialized agglomeration showed a weak emission reduction effect.     

Labor market policy evaluation in equilibrium: Some lessons of the job search and matching model

We analyze the consequences of counseling provided to job seekers in a standard job search and matching model. It turns out that neglecting equilibrium effects induced by counseling can lead to wrong conclusions. In particular, counseling can increase steady state unemployment although counseled job seekers exit unemployment at a higher rate than the non-counseled. Dynamic analysis shows that permanent and transitory policies can have effects of opposite sign on unemployment.     

Evaluation of a Flemish Active Labour Market Policy in the framework of the European Social Fund. Results and challenges

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the “Work Experience for Young Persons” (WIJ) programme, which was implemented in Flanders between 2015 and 2018. The WIJ programme is partially financed through the European Social Fund (ESF) and targets unqualified, young, and unemployed people with the aim of facilitating their entry to the labour market. The programme involves a trajectory of intensive guidance that includes labour market orientation and coaching as first phase, plus competence strengthening activities as second phase. This analysis is based on the Flemish Public Employment Service’s administrative data sources, which allows us to exploit detailed information on previous labour market history. We apply Coarsened Exact Matching to evaluate the WIJ’s impact on young unemployed people specifically in terms of their probability of being employed, unemployed or inactive, and of re-entering into education. Our results suggest that those who have participated in the WIJ programme have lower employment and education probabilities with respect to those who participated in the standard activities proposed by the public employment service. However, we found a positive employment effect if we only consider those who participated in the standard trajectory, i.e. those whose WIJ intervention lasted fewer than 14 months; this means that the negative effects are driven by those young individuals following the extended trajectories.     

Institutional endowment,localized capabilities and the emergence of SMEs: from mining to recycling,the case of Freiberg (Saxony)

This paper analyses the development of the emerging SME-based recycling and environmental technology sector in the region of Freiberg in the former centrally planned economy of the German Democratic Republic. The author analyses a relatively successful process of economic renewal resulting from a combination of endogenous assets and exogenous impulses, set within a socio-economic context often seen as unconducive to the creation of new and innovative firms. The analysis has three distinct but interlocking strands of explanation: long-term historical assets and localized capabilities; the restructuring of existing local research institutes; and public policies in support of environmental protection and applied research. The paper analyses how processes of learning and unlearning, and the existence of tacit and formal knowledge, supported by a strong social capital reinforced during years of communism, contributed to the development of the new sector. Overall, the analysis privileges an historical perspective in highlighting a process of long-term continuity in the accumulation of skills and entrepreneurial abilities, combined with a process of industrial transformation and renewal.     

Monetary policy,exchange rates and labor unions in SEE and the CIS during the financial crisis

The objective of this paper is to assess whether the levels of unionization and the rigidity of exchange rates represent a constraint for the monetary policy in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, with a particular focus on the recent economic crisis. Toward that end, a New Keynesian model with price and wage rigidities is used. The results show that monetary policy responded counter-cyclically during the crisis only in countries with weak trade unions and in countries with flexible exchange rates, which indicates that fixed exchange rates and strong trade unions constrain monetary policy in countries in these regions. Also, the findings show that the main driver of price inflation in these countries is not economic activity, but wages, which are affected to a large extent by trade unions. Therefore, trade unions should be active partners in the decision-making processes in these countries.     

Green bonds,sustainable development and environmental policy in the European Union carbon market

This study assesses the non-linear effects of green bonds, conventional bonds and energy commodities on the behaviour of the cap-and-trade European Union carbon market (European Union Emissions Trading System [EU-ETS]). By estimating four models, using Markov-switching (MS) econometric methodology, non-linearities are confirmed in dynamic behaviours, observing in the global calculation a positive effect of green bonds (S&P Green and Sol Green) on the carbon market, in regimes of both high and low volatility, whereas conventional bonds (S&P Agg) and energy commodities (DJCI En) contribute to a decrease in the carbon market in regimes of high volatility. The relevance of green bonds is underlined in determining the behaviour of the carbon market, besides observing greater persistence of the low volatility regime. These results allow both investors and fund managers to implement strategies in different volatility or economic activity contexts through a diversified portfolio and green/climate structure.     

发达国家城市流浪乞讨救助政策及其对我国的启示

本文总结概括了美国、英国、法国、日本等国家救助社会流浪乞讨人员的政策经验.在结合国情的基础上,从完善救助政策、发挥非政府组织的作用、健全社会保障制度、加强技能培训、强化部门合作等方面提出了我国救助社会流浪乞讨人员的建议.     

A resilience-based model for performance evaluation of information systems: the case of a gas company

Information systems (IS) are strongly influenced by changes in new technology and should react swiftly in response to external conditions. Resilience engineering is a new method that can enable these systems to absorb changes. In this study, a new framework is presented for performance evaluation of IS that includes DeLone and McLean’s factors of success in addition to resilience. Hence, this study is an attempt to evaluate the impact of resilience on IS by the proposed model in Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company via the data obtained from questionnaires and Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis (FDEA) approach. First, FDEA model with α-cut = 0.05 was identified as the most suitable model to this application by performing all Banker, Charnes and Cooper and Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes models of and FDEA and selecting the appropriate model based on maximum mean efficiency. Then, the factors were ranked based on the results of sensitivity analysis, which showed resilience had a significantly higher impact on the proposed model relative to other factors. The results of this study were then verified by conducting the related ANOVA test. This is the first study that examines the impact of resilience on IS by statistical and mathematical approaches.     

The impact of policy,political and economic uncertainty on corporate capital investment in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey

This paper examines the impact of policy, political, and economic uncertainty on firm-level capital investment in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Russia, and Turkey. Our results indicate an insignificant relationship between uncertainty and investment in these countries. This finding is robust to six different uncertainty measures, including time-series uncertainty indices that track either local or global uncertainty and country-level electoral activities. The results are also robust to two different proxies for measuring corporate investment. Overall, the real-option mechanism in which firms delay irreversible investment in uncertain times does not hold in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey.     

Productivity,Infrastructure and Human Capital in the Spanish Regions

We revisit the cointegration relation among output, physical capital, human capital, public capital and labour for 17 Spanish regions observed over the period 1964–2011. Our approach is based on the estimation of a panel data model where cross-section dependence is allowed among the members of the panel. The paper emphasizes the idea that common factors capturing, for instance, total factor productivity, should be accounted for when estimating the parameters. We use several proposals to estimate the long-run relation among these variables, which render consistent and efficient estimates of the parameters.     

The Problem of Time Dependent Explanatory Variables at the Context-Level in Discrete Time Multilevel Event History Analysis: A Comparison of Models Considering Mobility Between Local Labour Markets as an Example

The paper deals with the question of how to include time dependent explanatory variables at the context-level in multilevel event history models. In general, context-level explanatory variables in multilevel models are assumed to be time constant. Only time constant context-level explanatory variables perform the task of reducing context-level error variance. Thus, it will be suggested that the analysis should be extended to a three-level model. In this model, time periods of persons constitute level 1 units, time periods of contexts constitute level 2 units and the contexts themselves constitute level 3 units – in which in turn level 2 units are clustered. Considering mobility between local labour markets as an example, four different ways of modelling time varying context-level variables are compared. The result is that the proposed three-level model leads to the most conservative results.     

对贵阳某大桥桥台溶洞的稳定性分析与评价

贵州是我国岩溶地区分布的主要区域之一,在岩溶区处理路桥基础稳定性分析与评价是目前工程建设过程中面临的重点技术难题,尤其在处理大桥桥台溶洞方面,缺乏对溶洞应力应变稳定性的认识。文章以贵阳某大桥桥台溶洞为例,在调查研究区桥台溶洞工程地质环境条件的基础上,通过评价场地溶洞的岩土体力学性质,利用定性和定量两种方法对桥台溶洞进行系统的稳定性分析与评价,从而保证桥台溶洞的稳定性和工程的整体质量。     

技术创新项目风险分析与综合评价

文章分析了企业技术创新项目的风险因素,在此基础上设置了风险评价指标体系,建立了模糊评判模型,对企业技术创新风险进行了科学评价,并能定量地衡量企业关于某个项目的技术创新风险大小,为企业技术创新决策和采取风险控制措施提供了依据。     

Sticky prices, fair wages, and the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth

This paper studies the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth for the U.S. economy. Measures of co-movements in the frequency domain indicate that co-movements between variables differ strongly according to the frequency. First, long-term and business cycle co-movements are larger than short-term co-movements. Second, co-movements are negative in the short and long run, but positive over the business cycle. A New Keynesian model that combines nominal rigidity on the goods market (sticky prices) and real rigidity on the labor market (fair wages) is shown to be quantitatively consistent with the observed co-movements both in the long term and over the business cycle. However, the model fails to explain the short-term co-movements.