论股票交易印花税对我国股票市场的影响

本文将首先通过对股票交易印花税征收情况和上证指数的历史走势的观察对比,分析了印花税对股票价格水平的影响;然后利用GARCH模型研究了印花税对沪市股价波动性的影响.所得结论验证了某些现有相关理论的正确性.最后,笔者对股票交易印花税政策制定提出了一些建议.     

下调证券交易印花税税率的经济分析

我国证券交易印花税税率虽进行了多次调整,但仍处较高水平,对其适时进行适度下调是十分必要的,并将产生明显的经济效应。我国实践也证明适时调整证券交易印花税税率有助于证券市场的健康运行。     

印花税调整对我国股市的影响——基于两次印花税税率调整的事件研究

2007年与2008年我国印花税进行了两次调整,每次印花税的调整都引发股票市场出现大幅波动。本文选取两次印花税调整前后时期的数据进行了分析。结果发现:印花税调整对我国股票市场具有显著影响。     

浅析印花税税率下调的影响和意义

过去18年来,我国股市印花税税率曾经有过数次调整,2008年4月23日晚,又决定将证券交易印花税税率下调为1‰。本文分析了我国股市印花税税率过去数次调整的情况,对于这次印花税税率调整的背景、原因、影响和意义进行了深入分析,为帮助广大投资者正确解读印花税税率的变动,也为协助我国监管层正确调整印花税税率而建言。     

浅析印花税税率下调的影响和意义

过去18年来,我国股市印花税税率曾经有过数次调整,2008年4月23日晚,又决定将证券交易印花税税率下调为1‰。本文分析了我国股市印花税税率过去数次调整的情况,对于这次印花税税率调整的背景、原因、影响和意义进行了深入分析,为帮助广大投资者正确解读印花税税率的变动,也为协助我国监管层正确调整印花税税率而建言。     

印花税率调整与沪市风险价值(VaR)的研究

文章利用风险价值VaR方法,研究了我国历次印花税调整对上海股票市场投资风险的影响。实证表明印花税调整并不能影响股票市场投资风险,频繁调整印花税率只能带来政策的不稳定,并不能抑制股市的风险。     

印花税率调整与沪市风险价值(VaR)的研究

文章利用风险价值vaR方法,研究了我国历次印花税调整对上海股票市场投资风险的影响.实证表明印花税调整并不能影响股票市场投资风险,频繁调整印花税率只能带来政策的不稳定,并不能抑制股市的风险.     

印花税调整政策对股指的影响

本文从理论上分析了政策对股指的影响,并选取了历史上8次印花税调整时上证综指的波动情况,建立简单的回归模型研究印花税调整政策对股指波动产生的影响,得出结论:在我国股票市场还不健全的条件下,从超短期看,印花税调整政策有一定效果,但如果管理层颁布时机选择不当则效果不明显;从短期看,印花税调整政策的效果较好;从中期看,印花税调整与股指没有太大关系。因此管理层今后再调整印花税时应该更多地从政策中期效果考虑,另外,为了缓解股市不活跃和持续低迷的情况,应该从维护股票市场健康发展的角度调整政策,不应把调整印花税当作刺激股票市场发展的主要手段。     

证券印花税与股票市场波动：股改后的经验证据

本文运用GARCH模型对股改后两次印花税调整前后的股票市场波动变化进行了考察,结果显示,印花税调高后股票市场波动显著增大而印花税调减后股票市场波动显著减小,表明证券印花税不仅不能缓解反而还会加大股票市场波动。认为中国应同当前国际证券市场改革趋势降低直至最终取消证券印花税。     

证券交易印花税存在的问题与改革策略

近年来,我国通过对证券交易印花税税率的多次调整,实现了国家对股市的调控目标,然而这些调整也并非完全遵循了财政学的基本要求。本文从财政学的角度展开分析,为完善我国的证券交易印花税提出建议。     

Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic

Since the level of markets’ information efficiency is key to profiteering by strategic players, Shocks; such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can play a role in the nature of markets’ information efficiency. The martingale difference and conditional heteroscedasticity tests are used to evaluate the Adaptive form of market efficiency for four (4) major stock market indexes in the top four affected economies during the COVID-19 pandemic (USA, Brazil, India, and Russia). Generally, based on the martingale difference spectral test, there is no evidence of a substantial change in the levels of market efficiency for the US and Brazilian stock markets in the short, medium, and long term. However, in the long term, the Indian stock markets became more information inefficient after the coronavirus outbreak while the Russian stock markets become more information efficient. Intuitively, these affect the forecastability and predictability of these markets’ prices and/or returns. Thereby, informing the strategic and trading actions of stock investors (including arbitrageurs) towards profit optimization, portfolio asset selection, portfolio asset adjustment, etc. Similar policy implications are further discussed.     

关于完善我国证券交易印花税的思考

随着我国证券业的发展和证券市场的扩大,证券交易印花税作为国家对资本市场进行调控的重要手段发挥了极其重要的作用。但是,证券交易印花税税率的频繁调整使得我国证券市场具有浓厚的行政干预特点,这与我国市场经济改革是不相适宜的,也不利于我国资本市场的健康发展。笔者认为,应当从全面完善证券税收法律体系、对证券的发行和流通环节分别开征印花税和证券交易税、将征税范围扩展到全部证券交易品种、实行差别税率并开征差异性证券交易税、以资本利得税逐步取代证券交易印花税等方面改进和完善我国证券交易印花税制度。     

住房价格与交易量的关系:基于动态存量-流量模型的解释

以住房动态存量-流量模型为基础,通过研究外生冲击下住房价格、建设量以及存量的变化过程,提出了住房价格与交易量关系的一种解释方法.研究发现,传统的流动性约束、信息不对称等理论不适合中国的住房市场,而新建住房的滞后效应导致存量调整的时间过长,是住房价格和交易量正向剧烈波动的主要原因.     

上市公司非标准审计意见市场反应的差异性研究

文章以我国证券市场2005年和2006年获得非标准审计意见的上市公司为样本,运用事件研究法和多元回归分析模型,分年度考察了不同类型非标准审计意见的市场反应的差异.研究发现:我国证券市场能够识别持续经营审计意见和非持续经营审计意见之间的差异,但不能识别带强调事项段无保留意见和保留意见、无法表示意见之间的差异;2005年和2006年不同类型非标准审计意见的市场反应存在显著差异.     

创业板董事、高管人员辞职行为法律问题研究

我国创业板市场上市公司的开板,标志着我国证券市场多层次建设取得实质性突破,更意味着证券市场成为创新经济"新动力"。本文首先对创业板进行概述,然后围绕上市公司经营中董事、高管辞职引出的法律问题进行分析,最后为完善我国创业板市场上市公司董事辞职行为法律规制问题进行思考并提出建议。     

基于波动效应与价格发现的期指仿真交易研究

沪深300股指期货仿真交易的推出,对我国现货市场的影响如何以及这种影响是否有利于现货效率的改进。首次采用修正的GARCH模型和向量误差修正模型(VEC)将股指期货推出后现货市场波动性的变化和股指期货与现货市场的价格发现功能结合起来进行对比研究。结果表明,期指仿真交易的推出对于现货市场效率的改进确实存在正面的影响。其引入在短期内加大了现货市场的波动,但这一波动正是市场信息流动加速的反映,因而提高了市场信息的传递效率。同时期货价格领先于现货价格,存在由期货市场到现货市场长期的单向因果关系,说明期货价格具有引导现货价格向均衡方向调整的功能,从而在经验上支持了股指期货市场的开放政策。     

The lag structure of option price

The price of common stock warrants do not adjust immediately to changes in common stock prices. This lag is inconsistent with the ‘efficient market’ hypothesis. Based on daily closing prices this lag was measured and found to be a combination of the adjustment to stock price and to the adjustment of ‘other’ variables, i.e., positive serially correlated disturbance terms. A single equation model simultaneously estimating the parameters of the serial correlation and the coefficients of the lagged stock price indicate a substantial deviation from efficiency. Various simple strategies designed to exploit this lag are then tested.     

对股权分置改革对价水平影响因素的分析

通过对45家已实施股权分置改革的上市公司对价水平影响因素的分析，发现目前各公司的对价水平趋同，但对价影响因素不同。结合理论分析，建议从统一对价的标准上来稳定股改的预期，这更有利于股市的发展。     

Analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s stock market based on complex networks

This paper analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 on China's stock market by using the complex network methods. Firstly, we divide the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 into four research periods. Based on the GARCH-BEKK model and the Planar Maximum Filter Graph (PMFG) algorithm, the volatility spillover network between China's stock market sectors and the stock price correlation network of China's stock market corresponding to the above four research periods are constructed. Next, from the perspective of sectors in stock market, we use various network centrality indicators to build a systematic importance comprehensive evaluation index of industry sectors in the stock market through the principal component analysis method, to explore the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident on the risk spillover effects of sectors in China's stock market. From the perspective of the overall stock market, we analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction incident on the overall stability of the stock market through calculating the network topology indicators and conducting simulation experiments. Finally, the main factors affecting the stability mechanism of China's stock market are studied through the probit model. The results show that: (1) The risk spillover effect of various sectors in China's stock market changes significantly in different periods of Sino-US trade friction, and there are obvious cyclical rotation effects among various sectors (2) When some weighted stocks in the stock market abnormally fluctuate or suffer targeted shocks, the China's stock market's ability to maintain stability is weak, and the Sino-US trade friction will reduce the stability of China's stock market, and the higher the intensity of trade friction incident is, the more obvious the impact of the incident is. (3) The important factors that affect the abnormal fluctuations in China's stock market include four types of indicators: the stock market network structure, the fluctuation of important international stock indexes, the fluctuation of commodity prices in the international market, and the domestic macroeconomic indicators. This study provides a reference for China's financial regulatory authorities to conduct macro-prudential management, control systemic risks, and maintain the stability of financial market.     

Savings, Personal Wealth and Risk

In this Briefing Paper we examine the underlying determinants of personal savings behaviour to substantiate our view that the recent fall in savings rates does not imply that it must in future bounce back to some more normal level. On the contrary there are good reasons for believing that savings are more likely to go on falling than to rise.
We argue that consumer behaviour should be related explicitly to personal wealth as well as to disposable income. Personal wealth has risen substantially since 1982: the fall in inflation and long-term interest rates has pushed up gilts' prices; the recovery of profits has sparked off a stock market boom; and the value of the housing stock, which is by far the most important asset held by the personal sector, has started to rise again in real terms. This rise in asset values means that, despite a rise in consumption financed by borrowing, the personal sector balance sheet still in a healthy state, particularly when account is taken of the personal savings now held indirectly via pension funds. These have risen rapidly recently, reducing the need for other long-term savings.
The rise in total wealth has increased savers' tolerance of a fall in net liquid assets (bank and building society deposits etc less borrowing). The willingness to hold a smaller (precautionary) stock of net liquid assets may also reflect a perceived reduction in risk. Financial markets have been much more stable over the period since 1975 than over the preceding eight years, and may now be signalling that the period of adjustment to the shocks and disturbances of the 1970s is drawing to an end. The fall in savings is a worldwide phenomenon. As in the UK it is linked to the fall in inflation and may also be connected with the recovery of the world's major stock markets.