Employers' Flexibility and Employment Volatility

A bstract .   Previous analyses of the strong secular growth in personnel supply employment have focused primarily on the relative impacts of demand and supply factors. This industry's dramatic growth has tended to mask its high degree of volatility, which may be more useful in understanding employers' motivations for hiring temporary employees. This article examines alternative explanations for the volatility of employment in the temporary supply industry from 1972 to 2000. Using a seemingly unrelated time-series estimator, we compare the volatility of temporary employment to that of regular full-time employment. We find that quarterly changes in temporary employment are more sensitive to the business cycle than regular full-time employment are and argue that temporary employment is likely to have a number of disadvantages as a reemployment strategy during a recession, since temporary employment typically declines during that time. Additionally, employment growth during this period is better explained by employers' efforts to achieve numerical rather than wage flexibility.     

Management Strategy and Labour Flexibility In Japanese Manufacturing Enterprises

Since the 1970s Japanese labour relations and management practices have been scrutinised as Western firms search for ways to improve their productivity and international competitiveness. Pervading this literature is the view that the Japanese labour market is flexible and adaptable. the purpose of this article is to ascertain if flexibility is a key strategic objective of management and if Japanese firms adopt a core-peripheral approach to employment. the research is based on a survey of Japanese enterprises conducted and detailed interviews with senior managers. the major finding is that Japanese labour practices have a strategic component and that the use of casual and contract workers is consistent with a core-peripheral labour strategy.     

Government Employment and Wages and Labour Market Performance

Government wage, benefit, and employment decisions are not taken on a profit-maximizing basis, and have a substantial impact on aggregate labour market performance and unemployment. In a two-sector labour market model with free mobility of labour, an increase in government wages or benefits reduces private sector employment, and government employment is not an effective counter-cyclical instrument. Empirical tests for Greece confirm that the expansion of the public sector in the 1980s contributed to the deterioration of labour market performance.     

Employment Growth in Italian Local Labour Systems: Issues of Model Specification and Sectoral Aggregation

Abstract

In this paper we construct a model to estimate local employment growth in Italian local labour markets for the period 1991–2001. The model is constructed in a similar manner to the original models of Glaeser et al. (1992), Henderson et al. (1995) and Combes (2000). Our objective is to identify the extent to which the results estimated by these types of models are themselves sensitive to the model specification. In order to do this we extend the basic models by successively incorporating new explanatory variables into the model framework. In addition, and for the first time, we also estimate these same models at two different levels of sectoral aggregation, for the same spatial structure. Our results indicate that these models are highly sensitive to sectoral aggregation and classification and our results therefore strongly support the use of highly disaggregated data.     

关于就业的公平与效率的统一

文章从公平与效率的关系问题入手 ,指出这是围绕着市场化改革进程的一大难题 ,当市场在资源配置中起决定性作用时 ,就业的效率与公平之间的对立性似乎成为矛盾的主要方面 ,文章就就业的市场公平、机会均等及其实现等方面对就业的公平与效率的统一进行了论述     

New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: an Analysis of German Labour Markets

Abstract

In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment patterns in Germany. Neural networks are modern statistical tools based on learning algorithms that are able to process large amounts of data. Neural networks are enjoying increasing interest in several fields because of their effectiveness in handling complex data sets when the functional relationship between dependent and independent variables is not specified explicitly. The present paper compares two NN methodologies. First, it uses NNs to forecast regional employment in both the former West and East Germany. Each model implemented computes single estimates of employment growth rates for each German district, with a 2-year forecasting range. Next, additional forecasts are computed, by combining the NN methodology with shift-share analysis (SSA). Since SSA aims to identify variations observed among the labour districts, its results are used as further explanatory variables in the NN models. The data set used in our experiments consists of a panel of 439 German (NUTS 3) districts. Because of differences in the size and time horizons of the data, the forecasts for West and East Germany are computed separately. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models is evaluated by means of several appropriate statistical indicators.

RÉSUMÉ

Nouvelles Méthodes de Prévisions Fondées sur les Réseaux Neuronaux Appliquées l'Emploi Régional: Une Analyse des Marchés du travail dans l'Allemagne Réunifiée

Dans cet article, les auteurs ont développé une série de modèles utilisant les réseaux neuronaux (RN) pour calculer des prévisions à court terme des paramètres de l'emploi, par région allemande. Les RN sont des outils statistiques modernes fondés sur des algorithmes d'apprentissage, capables de traiter de grandes quantités de données. On s'intéresse de plus en plus aux RN car ils permettent de gérer efficacement des séries de données complexes, bien que la relation fonctionnelle entre les variables dépendantes et indépendantes n'est pas définie explicitement. Cet article compare deux méthodologies fondées sur les RN. D'abord, il utilise les RN pour prévoir l'emploi régional dans les deux régions anciennement appelées Allemagne de l'Ouest et Allemagne de l'Est. Chaque modèle réalisé calcule de simples estimations des taux de croissance d'emploi pour chaque district allemand, sur une durée de 2 ans. Puis, il calcule des prévisions complémentaires, en combinant la méthodologie RN avec une analyse shift-share (ASS). Comme l'ASS a pour but d'identifier les variations relevées sur le marché local du travail, on emploie les résultats obtenus comme variables indépendantes complémentaires dans les modèles RN. Notre échantillon de données utilisé dans nos expériences se compose de 439 districts allemands. Comme les districts composant l’échantillon présentent de grandes différences en matière de taille et d'horizon temporel, les prévisions pour l'Allemagne de l'Ouest et l'Allemagne de l'Est sont calculées séparément. La capacité des modèles à établir des prévisions hors – échantillon est évaluée avec différents indicateurs statistiques appropriés.

RESUMEN

Nuevos métodos de redes neurales para la previsión de empleo regional: un análisis para los mercados laborales de Alemania

En este documento desarrollamos una serie de modelos de redes neurales (RN) para calcular las previsiones a corto plazo de los modelos de empleo regional en Alemania. Las RN son modernas herramientas de estadísticas basadas en algoritmos de aprendizaje capaces de procesar un gran número de datos. Las RN se están popularizando cada vez más en diferentes campos porque son capaces de manejar grupos de datos complejos cuando la relación funcional entre las variables dependientes e independientes no está explícitamente especificada. En este artículo comparamos dos metodologías de RN. Primero, utilizamos las RN para pronosticar el empleo regional en Alemania del oeste y del este. Cada modelo aplicado computa por separado los cálculos de las tasas de crecimiento de empleo para cada distrito alemán, con un intervalo de previsión de 2 años. Luego se calculan las previsiones adicionales combinando la metodología de las RN con el análisis shift-share. Dado que los análisis shift-share identifican las variaciones observadas entre los distritos laborales, sus resultados se utilizan como otras variables explicatorios en los modelos de RN. El grupo de datos utilizado en nuestros experimentos abarca un panel de 439 distritos alemanes. Las previsiones para Alemania del oeste y este se computan por separado debido a las diferencias en los horizontes de tamaño y tiempo de los datos. La capacidad de previsión a partir de las muestras en los modelos es evaluada mediante varios indicadores adecuados de estadísticas.     

The regulation of health and safety in Britain: from old Labour to new Labour

The Health and Safety at Work Act (HSWA 1974), passed twenty‐five years ago, has been hailed as a significant advance for organised labour and a model for modern work‐place regulation. This article argues that, contrary to conventional interpretations, the making of the Act was dominated by business interests. We suggest that the Act’s emphasis on self‐regulation and goal‐setting made it vulnerable to deregu‐latory initiatives, which are unlikely to be reversed by new Labour in the foreseeable future.     

股权激励与企业绩效关系多样性的原因分析——基于系统动力学的视角

基于系统动力学理论,分析了股权激励系统动力学特征,对导致股权激励与企业绩效关系多样性的原因进行了探究。研究结果表明:以往的研究忽略了与股权激励相关的软变量;忽略了股权激励作用的延迟效应;忽略了股权激励系统中起主导作用回路的转移。并针对原因提出了一些建议和启示。     

The Contingent Effects of Social Network Sparseness and Centrality on Managerial Innovativeness

Prior research has highlighted that network sparseness and network centrality enhance innovativeness through access to information and influence, respectively. We advance this perspective by exploring the extent to which individual actions are needed to mobilize information and influence accessed through social networks, and whether such information and influence would mutually reinforce to enhance managerial innovativeness. Our findings found partial support for the idea that actions are needed to actualize potential resources embedded in social networks, as centrally positioned managers enjoy higher innovativeness when they engage in ambassador activities. We also found that advice network sparseness and advice network centrality had independent, not interactive relationships with managerial innovativeness, suggesting that they offer distinct routes to achieving managerial innovativeness. Overall, our research clarifies the relationships of two important social network attributes on managerial innovativeness, and also sheds new light on how managerial action matters in realizing social network advantages for innovative ends.     

Innovativeness and organizational innovation in total quality oriented firms: The moderating role of market turbulence

This paper analyses the contribution of TQM implementation to the firms’ innovative culture and their overall innovation effort in the technical and administrative organizational domains. The research seeks to contribute to a further understanding, under different market turbulence conditions, of the TQM–innovation relationship and the interactions between the organization's innovativeness and the intensity and newness of the innovations adopted. The findings indicate that TQM strongly influences firm's innovative culture and higher administrative innovation levels with a greater degree of incorporated novelty, whereas the mediating role of innovativeness is required for TQM to achieve this impact on technical innovation. These relationships significantly vary under different levels of market turbulence, but results reinforce the consideration of TQM as an appropriate resource to foster innovativeness and organizational innovation. The study provides an unexpected result as innovativeness does not influence administrative innovations, which seem to be ultimately determined by TQM. Finally, the findings provide empirical support regarding the coordinated development in practice of technical and administrative innovations.     

劳动力分配的灵活性对利润的影响--基于线性规划法的例证分析

本文以一个工厂为例,以线性规划法为手段,对比分析了在劳动力可转移和不可转移两种条件下的生产安排,证明了劳动力分配的灵活性能显著提高企业利润。     

The Unintended Consequences of Italy's Labour Laws: How Extensive Labour Regulation Distorts the Italian Economy

Simple solutions to complex problems often have unintended and undesirable consequences. An example is Italy's approach to combating unemployment. Rigid laws designed to protect the employed perversely discourage businesses from hiring and people from working. They also encourage precarious temporary employment among young people, informal work, and under‐the‐table deals that compromise worker benefits. The numbers of Italy's unemployed and of those outside the workforce are much higher than official estimates suggest. Italy's employment protection legislation – arguably the most restrictive in Europe – creates that which it seeks to prevent: the insecurity of unemployment.     

企业竞争的制高点:战略弹性

一、战略弹性的主要内容 企业面临经营环境的快速变化，促使其必须具有快速的经营反应能力。而要获得这个反应能力必须建立自己的战略弹性。战略弹性是企业依据自身的知识能力，为应付不断变化的不确定情况而具有的应变能力，这些知识和能力由人员、程序、产品和综合的系统所构成。     

经济增长与就业协调论

经济增长与充分就业是宏观经济运行的两大目标。从概念上看,经济增长一般指的是实际总产出的持续增加,或人均实际产出的持续增长。就业,按照西方经济学的一般解释,指“处于受雇的状态”。有劳动能力、愿意从事劳动的人从事有薪的劳动,这些人就处于就业状态。在两者的决定因素中,有些是对经济增长和就业都起作用的共同因素,有些只是影响某一方面。这样,一方面,两者的变化形态可以是多形态的;另一方面,随着决定因素势力的     

广州降水与太阳活动及ENSO的关系

文章通过相关性计算得出,太阳黑子时广州降水的影响比南方涛动对广州降水的影响显著,相关系数分别为0.507和0.388,都通过了99%的显著性检验,同时.统计了自1950年以来的ENSO事件,并与广州降水作了对应分析.得出结论,ENSO暖事件将使广州降水量减少;相反,ENSO冷事件则使广州降水量增加.     

广州降水与太阳活动及ENSO的关系

文章通过相关性计算得出,太阳黑子对广州降水的影响比南方涛动对广州降水的影响显著,相关系数分别为0．507和0．388,都通过了99％的显著性检验。同时,统计了1950年以来的ENSO事件,并与广州降水作了对应分析。得出结论,ENSO暖事件将使广州降水量减少;相反,ENSO冷事件则使广州降水量增加。