HOW TO VALUE THE POORER PROSPECTS OF YOUTH IN THE EARLY 1990s?

Young workers in the 1990s can expect greater economic insecurity, as well as lower average earnings, compared to older workers, or compared to the youth of previous decades. The cost of greater insecurity depends upon an individual's probability of unemployment, marginal utility of income gains/losses and the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption over time by borrowing and drawing down assets. Since unemployment insurance cutbacks and higher unemployment have increased the risk exposure of youth, changes in the expected value of their income may understate utility losses as measured by the change in certainty equivalent income.
This paper uses a behavioural microsimulation model to compare the impacts of 1971 and 1994 unemployment insurance legislation and unemployment rates in Canada. It calculates both the expected value of income changes and, using a Stone-Geary utility function, the change in inequality of well-being (as measured by certainty equivalent income) for youth and for prime age workers. Both calculations reveal that youth were disproportionately affected by Canada's changing labour market environment. Very few youth have enough assets to finance consumption during spells of unemployment.     

IS FULL EFFICIENCY ACHIEVABLE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY IN TAIWAN

This paper aims to propose a feasible framework for estimating the efficiency of input factors for banks and the adjustment of these factors necessary to achieve full efficiency in the short and long term. Based on a sample of 39 Taiwanese banks during 1999–2011, the framework recommends a scheme along with a set of adjustments empirically that allow the banks to not only achieve full efficiency but also save 10.3% of the total costs in the short term and 8.8% in the long term. This scheme amounts to short‐term and long‐term savings of NT$3.6 billion and NT$3.1 billion, respectively. (JEL C23, D24, G21)     

HOW CONSERVATIVE DOES THE CENTRAL BANKER HAVE TO BE? ON THE TREATMENT OF EXPECTATIONS UNDER DISCRETIONARY POLICYMAKING

This paper explores an issue that arises in the delegation process. The paper shows that a myopic central banker, one who treats expectations as constant in setting discretionary policy, can replicate the behaviour of output and inflation under policy from a timeless perspective. For that to happen, society must delegate a price level target or a speed limit policy to a central banker who is more weight-conservative than society.     

HOW COOPERATIVE ARE SAVINGS AND CREDIT COOPERATIVES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?: AN ANALYSIS OF DATASETS FROM UGANDA

Building successful savings and credit cooperatives (SACCOs) that actually embody the cooperative principles is a challenge to development agencies. Although SACCOs form the majority of microfinance providers in many developing countries, the most recent literature on microfinance governance and performance has given little reference to the longstanding body of relevant cooperative literature. SACCO representation in microfinance datasets is biased. Drawing on so‐far unexploited datasets of Ugandan SACCOs and savings groups, this paper empirically analyses policy debate regarding SACCO‐ and savings group regulation. The findings point to the relevance of practically implementing the principle of ‘cooperation between cooperatives’ to ensure effective governance at SACCO level. Moreover, the paper introduces two new measures, based on members' savings and shares, which could become useful tools to track the application of cooperative principles in developing countries, and hence improve evidence‐based policy‐making for SACCOs.     

HOW DO HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES IN JAPAN COMPETE FOR REGULAR,FULL‐TIME JOBS? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED UPON AN INTERNET SURVEY OF THE YOUTH*

We use a survey of Japanese youth within 10 years after high school graduation to investigate impacts of academic and social skills on their success in the job market. We find three major factors account for the job market outcome immediately after school: school characteristics and job‐placement services, academic performance, and social skills, including negative impacts of problematic behaviors at school. Second, when we run a probit regression on whether or not the surveyed individuals hold regular, full‐time jobs, we find the persistent but declining (over age) impact of the job placement immediately after school. Moreover, we find that the impact of variables pertaining to social skills remain significant even after controlling for the job‐placement outcome after school, whereas other variables, such as grade point average or attributes of high schools, are largely irrelevant to the current employment status.     

HOW WELL DID SOCIAL SECURITY MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE GREAT RECESSION?

Using a computational life cycle model, this article assesses how Social Security affects the welfare of different types of individuals during the Great Recession. Overall, we find that Social Security reduces the average welfare losses for agents alive at the time of the Great Recession by the equivalent of 1.4% of expected future lifetime consumption. Moreover, we show that although the program mitigates some of the welfare losses for most agents, it is particularly effective at mitigating the losses for agents who are poorer and/or older at the time of the shock.     

IS THE DEMISE OF M2 GREATLY EXAGGERATED?

The early 1990s in the United States were years of sluggish economic growth alongside a sharply lowered federal funds rate, leading analysts to conclude that monetary policy must have been rendered ineffective by external influences. One previously popular monetary policy indicator not used to analyze the period was real M2, as it was widely considered to have been distorted since the early 1980s. This paper argues that it was a serious mistake to ignore M2 in the early 1990s since it never forecast (relatively or absolutely) better and helps explains this otherwise puzzling period very well. (JEL E32, E51, E52)     

DOES APPRECIATION OF THE RENMINBI DECREASE IMPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES FROM CHINA?

In 2005, China abated its fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and began to appreciate the Renminbi (RMB). In this paper, I explore the effect of the appreciation of the RMB on imports to the United States from China by augmenting the gravity model with the exchange rate. Using an industrial panel data set during the period 2002–2008 and controlling for the endogeneity of the bilateral exchange rate, this extensive empirical analysis suggests that the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar significantly reduced imports to the United States from China. This finding is robust to a variety of econometric methods and to coverage in different periods. (JEL F1, F2)     

TO REGULATE OR TO DEREGULATE? THE ROLE OF DOWNSTREAM COMPETITION IN UPSTREAM MONOPOLY VERTICALLY LINKED MARKETS

This paper attempts to cast light to the effect of monopoly regulation in Cournot markets compared to its effect in Bertrand markets. To this purpose, we use a simple model of a vertically linked market, where an upstream regulated natural monopoly is trading via two‐part tariff contracts with a downstream duopoly. Combining our results to those of the existing literature on deregulated markets, we argue that when the downstream competition is in prices, efficiency dictates regulating the monopoly with a marginal cost based pricing scheme. However, this type of regulation leads to significant welfare loss, when the downstream market is characterized by Cournot competition.     

IS THERE A CURSE OF RELOCATION? ANALYSING THE CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN OFFSHORING AND THE INNOVATION PERFORMANCE OF (SMALL) FIRMS

We analyse the empirical link between offshoring activities and different dimensions of innovation performance at the firm‐level. In order to identify causal effects running from offshoring to innovation, we use a quasi‐experimental comparison group approach by means of (conditional) difference‐in‐difference estimations applied to German establishment‐level data for firms that conducted offshoring activities in the period 2007–13. We find that the international relocation of business functions has a negative impact on the firms’ propensity to be innovative in terms of product and process innovations as well as product improvements. While for larger firms the reduction in process innovations is most striking, potentially due to a lack of resources, stagnation in expertise and a reduction in intra‐organizational learning‐by‐doing associated with the relocation of some business activities, for small and medium‐sized enterprises we particularly observe a reduction in product innovations after the offshoring activity has taken place. When interpreting this ‘pessimistic’ picture on the link between offshoring and the innovation performance of firms, the reader should note that our findings for German establishments have to be assessed through the lens of a global economy in economic recession after 2008, which may have intensified the negative impact of offshoring on the firms’ innovation performance.     

A PATHWAY TO HOMEOWNERSHIP? EVIDENCE FROM THE IMMIGRATION REFORM AND CONTROL ACT OF 1986

The impact of legal status on economic outcomes has been well documented in the literature with most research focused on labor market outcomes such as wages and occupational mobility. In this paper, I utilize the exogenous variation created the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986 to estimate the effect of amnesty polices on homeownership among undocumented immigrants. Using a regression discontinuity framework, the results suggest that the IRCA increased homeownership rates of eligible immigrants by around 4 percentage points relative to ineligible immigrants. Moreover, an extension to the main analysis suggests that immigrants ineligible for the IRCA adjusted their household formation by increasing the rates of coresidency. (JEL J61, R23, R31)     

IS THE BALANCING ITEM FOR AUSTRALIA SUSTAINABLE? EVIDENCE FROM A THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL WITH AN AUTOREGRESSIVE UNIT ROOT

This article applies an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root to examine the sustainability of the balancing item of the balance of payments for Australia from the first quarter 1960 to the second quarter 2006. The main finding is that the balancing item of the balance of payments in Australia is characterised by a non-linear, but stationary, series meaning that the balancing item is sustainable. This result implies that short-run volatility in the balancing item has no effect on the reliability of reporting of the balancing item in the long-run.     

SOCIAL INVESTMENT IN SPAIN: HOW DO SOLIDARITY MUTUAL FUNDS DECIDE THE ALLOCATION OF SOLIDARITY FUNDING BETWEEN SOCIAL ECONOMY ORGANIZATIONS?

Solidarity mutual funds (SMFs) are a financial product oriented toward funding social economy organizations (SEOs). The main characteristic of these mutual funds, known in other countries as social investment, is that part of their management fees is allocated to support SEOs. In Spain, the criteria used in the allocation process of these funds have not been studied. The aim of this paper is to analyze the decision model of SMFs. To this end, we developed a logit regression model. The obtained results show that the decision model of SMFs promotes the development of commercial activity and favors a specific ideology and values and an exclusive relationship with the main funders.     

“WHY NOT SETTLE DOWN ALREADY?” A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DELAY IN MARRIAGE

A striking change in American society in the last 40 years has been the decline and delay in marriage. The fraction of young adults who have never been married increased significantly between 1970 and 2000. Idiosyncratic labor income volatility also rose. We establish a quantitatively important link between these facts. If marriage involves consumption commitments, then a rise in income volatility delays marriage. We quantitatively assess this hypothesis vis‐à‐vis others in the literature. Increased volatility accounts for about 20% of the observed delay in marriage and is strong relative to other mechanisms.