SKILL BIAS AND EMPLOYMENT FRICTIONS IN THE U.S. LABOR MARKET 1970–1990*

This article studies simultaneous changes in four labor market variables: the unemployment rates for college and high‐school graduates, the education wage premium, and the level of college participation. It develops an equilibrium search and matching model of the labor market where education is endogenously determined. Then the model is used to investigate quantitatively whether the change in the above labor market variables from 1970 to 1990 in the United States can be traced to changes in the environment. A skill‐biased change in technology together with an increase in employment frictions can explain much of the observed variation in these variables.     

THE U.S. WESTWARD EXPANSION*

The U.S. economic development in the 19th century was characterized by the westward movement of population and the accumulation of productive land in the West. This article presents a model of migration and land improvement to identify the quantitatively important forces driving these phenomena. The conclusion is that the decrease in transportation costs induced the westward migration, whereas population growth was responsible for the investment in productive land.     

THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE U.S. STOCK MARKET*

It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long‐run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry‐specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission of oil price shocks that emphasize the reduction in domestic final demand.     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY INCOME IN U.S. SMSAs, 1959*

An attempt is made in this paper to identify and quantify the relative influence of several economic, social, and demographic factors on variations in the size distribution of family incomes in 208 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) in the United States in 1959. Using a simple ordinary least squares model with Gini's concentration ratio (R) as the proxy for family income inequality, the estimating equations explain up to 89 percent of the SMSA-to-SMSA variation. The “best” explanatory variables are those having to do with size of nonwhite population, occupational structure, and median years of education. City size and region—which are represented by dummy variables—are also revealed as playing an important role, both on their own and in conjunction with other of the independent variables.     

VEHICLE CHOICE BEHAVIOR AND THE DECLINING MARKET SHARE OF U.S. AUTOMAKERS*

We develop a consumer‐level model of vehicle choice to shed light on the erosion of the U.S. automobile manufacturers' market share during the past decade. We examine the influence of vehicle attributes, brand loyalty, product line characteristics, and dealerships. We find that nearly all of the loss in market share for U.S. manufacturers can be explained by changes in basic vehicle attributes, namely: price, size, power, operating cost, transmission type, reliability, and body type. U.S. manufacturers have improved their vehicles' attributes but not as much as Japanese and European manufacturers have improved the attributes of their vehicles.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF COMPETING EXPLANATIONS FOR THE MIDTERM GAP IN THE U.S. HOUSE*

Previous empirical analyses of the midterm gap have been unreliable for two reasons: the limited degrees of freedom inherent in national-level time series data, and the failure to adequately control for competing explanations. By using district-level panel data, this paper is able to circumvent those weaknesses. Both withdrawn coattails and systematic presidential punishment at the midterm play an important role in explaining the observed midterm gap. Economic factors have a somewhat smaller impact. Evidence of systematic punishment of incumbent presidents in on-year elections is also observed.     

THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY

Defense contractors in the United States face a painful choice between downsizing or investing in new high-risk commercial ventures. Past experience reveals numerous failed efforts to penetrate commercial markets and few, if any, successes.
The capabilities required to succeed in civilian business are fundamentally different from those needed to design and produce weapon systems. Defense firms and defense divisions of diversified corporations lack adequate knowledge of commercial products, production methods, advertising and distribution, financial approaches, and customer demand.
Given the outlook for a sustained decline in U.S. military spending, the author advises companies catering to military markets to cut their costs by reducing excess capacity. Smaller but more competitive positions can be achieved through restructuring, mergers, sales of assets, and, if necessary, closing down unneeded facilities. Firms that ignore the pleas for "conversion" and do not dissipate their assets in civilian markets alien to them stand the best chance of surviving during a period of reduced military demand.     

THE COST OF THE U.S. SUGAR PROGRAM REVISITED

The article analyzes the welfare cost of the U.S. sugar program using a multimarket model of U.S. sweetener markets. The latter includes raw crops, sugar extraction and refining, and sweetener users (food-processing industries and final consumers). The authors address the industrial organization of food industries using sweeteners and treat the United States as a large importer. With the removal of the program, this article estimates (all figures in 1999 dollars) that in 1998 cane growers, sugar beet growers, and processors would have lost $307, $650, and $89 million, respectively; sweetener users would have gained $1.9 billion. World prices would have increased by 13.2%. The deadweight loss of the program is estimated at $532 million.     

A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON SKILL SHORTAGES AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN NEW ZEALAND*

Qualification and occupation‐based measures of skilled labour are constructed to explain the skill premium – the wage of skilled labour relative to unskilled labour in New Zealand. The data exhibit a more rapid growth in the supply of skilled labour than the skill premium, and a very large increase in the real minimum wage over the period from 1986 to 2005. We estimate the rate of increase in the relative demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution. The data are consistent with skill shortages and a skill‐bias technical change. We examine the effects of the minimum wage, capital complementarity, and the exchange rate on the skill premium. We also test whether the demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution varied across industries and over time.     

THE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN U.S. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: 1840–1860*

We return to two questions concerning the 19th century U.S. transportation revolution. First, to what extent were transportation improvements responsible for the large changes in the regional distribution of population in the United States and, within regions, for the changes in industry structure? Second, how important were transportation improvements for welfare gains? We find that transport improvements were the key factor driving where people lived and what industry they worked in. We also find that transport improvements were important for welfare gains: Gains over 1840–1860 would have been only half as large if there had been no transportation improvements.     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC ACCOUNTING IN THE U.S. OFFICE OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS–AN APPRAISAL*

This paper discusses the conceptual framework in which regional economic accounts in the United States are viewed and the functions which those accounts serve. It points out that the major differences between regional and national accounts relate to factor returns to capital. First, returns to capital are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to measure meaningfully on a geographic basis. Secondly, because the capital market in the United States is a reasonably perfect one geographically, the return to capital that originates in a given region has little significance as either a stimulant or a constraint to production in that region. In terms of the functions of regional accounts, the point is made that whereas national economic accounts can aid economic decision-making in three general areas of policyallocation, distribution and stabilization—with perhaps greatest emphasis now placed on the last of these, regional accounts are most useful in matters relating to allocation and distribution. Information needed for the use of regional accounts in decision-making with regard to allocation and distribution problems is examined. Against these needs are placed an inventory of regional accounts which are available in the Regional Economics Division, Office of Business Economics. The available accounts are found to fall considerably short of those needed for allocation decisions. In contrast, regional accounts as presently constituted have much to offer as tools for analyzing the problems of regional economic distribution, although here too, much additional information is needed.     

DIFFERENCES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF WEALTH, WEALTH INEQUALITY AND WEALTH COMPOSITION OBTAINED FROM ALTERNATIVE U.S. WEALTH SURVEYS

Since household wealth surveys have been widely used to study saving and other issues, it is important to examine the reliability of the various survey estimates of wealth. In this paper the authors assess the quality characteristics of the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Men and the Retirement History Survey, as compared to the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances. We find that the NLS and especially the RHS underreport wealth and wealth concentration. The underestimates of wealth held in the form of common stock, business equity, and investment real estate equity are substantial. The principal problem lies in underrepresentation of both tails of the wealth and income distributions, with the consequences of underrepresenting the upper tail being especially serious for wealth measurement. We examine several potential reasons for the underrepresentation.     

THE REAL RATE OF U.S. NATIONAL SAVING

The conventional measure of national saving in U.S. accounts does not include saving in consumer durables, public investment, or intangible capital. It reflects a measure of net foreign investment that relates in considerable part to original cost rather than market values. It also does not include real capital gains.
Comprehensive, adjusted measures of national saving are calculated for as many of the years from 1946 to 1989 as relevant components are available. They generally suggest much larger rates of national saving than are usually recognized. They also cast a sharp and substantially different light on the likely effects of policies designed to increase provision for the future.