有限理性论

有限理性的概念是由西蒙教授引入经济学的,是指经济主体通过其实际行为表现出来的理性。现有的一些有限理性理论在一定范围内获得了实验研究结果的支持。通过对有限理性理论最新发展成果的介绍,重点阐述了注意力对概率判断的影响和经济主体做选择的主要方式等几个核心问题。     

中国企业经理人是自利和理性的吗?——一个实验经济学研究

"经济人自利和理性"假设是经济学的最核心假设.西方实验经济学家通过一系列博弈试验,证实了人们完全"自利"、"理性"的假设并不成立.但实验参与人群及其文化历史背景的变化对实验结果的影响一直是人们关注的焦点.因此,本文利用精心设计的"信任博弈"实验,对中国的企业经理人的"自利"、"理性"假设进行了实验研究,并且将企业经理人的实验结果与学生身份的实验参与者的实验结果做了对比研究.实验结果证实了西方实验经济学家的结论,发现中国的企业经理人并不是完全"自利"、"理性"的机会主义者,同时,本实验还揭示了被标准的委托代理理论忽视了的激励手段所带来的隐含成本和隐含收益.在此基础上,本文提出了企业经理人激励约束的政策建议.     

How far can a dummy go? or,Are we putting too much of a burden upon political dichotomies?

Previous political models of macroeconomic phenomena have been erroneous due to the interpretations researchers have attached to the political dichotomies specified in their models. It is claimed that direct stimuli interpretations of political nominal scaling misrepresent the true nature of the impact political determinants exert upon macroeconomic endogenous outcomes. Furthermore, it is suggested that a proper specification of an economic phenomenon requires the consideration of both political and economic information. The consideration of political content, given its expectational nature, somewhat bridges the gap between substantive global rationality and procedural bounded rationality theories in economics and political science (as well as cognitive psychology). When a fuller specification is brought to bear, economic determinants play a mixed role in macroeconomic modeling. Such determinants are subject to direct stimuli and expectational information. On the other hand political determinants exert a pure expectational impact upon endogenous economic determinants.     

Experimental Study of Firm Bounded Rationality and the Pattern of Trade

This paper describes an experiment and simulation with features of a spatially explicit trading environment. Decision makers repeatedly make decisions about firm headquarters, input demands, and export patterns. A goal of this research is to determine if subjects’ management decisions reflect profit maximization, learning, or heuristic decision making. It also considers what impact decision makers’ bounded rationality has on the aggregate pattern of trade. Results indicate that bounded rationality in the form of learning and heuristic decision making are ubiquitous features of subjects’ decisions. This manifests as under‐reaction to trade‐driver stimuli and produces Trefler's missing trade, suggesting a behavioral basis for this anomaly.     

试论工程造价合理性的经济学分析及实际操作

造价技术的先进与否将直接关系到工程造价合理性的实现。为此,建立跨部门的协同机制,以及建立现场观测的实践机制等,都应成为造价人员需要履行的职责。其合理性的经济学分析及操作,应围绕着:人员素质、信息传递、激励机制、有限理性等四个方面展开。     

套牢问题与企业边界的关系探讨

关于企业边界的研究,最有影响力的工作集中于套牢问题。目前为止,至少存在三种学派对此做出了研究:契约经济学流派、交易费用经济学流派、新产权经济学流派。本文旨在综述这三个主要学派的观点,并比较它们的研究切入点和彼此之间的不同点并进行评论。研究表明,三个学派基本认同套牢问题产生的根源为:人的有限理性、契约不完全以及资产专用性投资,但是在治理措施上分别产生了契约治理、长期动态(声誉考虑)治理、组织治理等。     

BEHAVIOURAL COMPLEXITY

Abstract The paper compares and contrasts complexity economics and neoclassical economics. It proposes a framework for modelling complex systems and, accordingly, utilizes agent‐based simulation to examine consumption behaviour in a complex model and in a neoclassical model. Results suggest that complex behaviour leads to higher accumulation of wealth, better efficiency and greater stability. These results are consistent with the nature of complex systems whereby ‘the whole is greater than the sum’, and where unexpected system properties emerge from simple local interactions.     

Tests for bounded rationality with a linear dynamic model distorted by heterogeneous expectations

The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology which will use economic data to detect the existence of boundedly rational economic agents. The bounded rationality model presented in this paper generalizes a linear dynamic rational expectations model by nesting two types of expectations. In this paper, it is claimed that the bounded rationality model as presented can be transformed into an optimal regulator problem with distortions. As a result, the methodologies developed by the optimal control theory can be used to solve the model. The likelihood function for the model is constructed by the Kalman filtering using the solution of the model. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is performed to test for bounded rationality in the U.S. cattle market for the period from 1900 to 1990. The empirical results indicate that some fraction of economic agents in the market are boundedly rational.     

Who Do Heterodox Economists Think They Are?1

This paper attempts to engage with the established debate on the nature of heterodox economics. However, it starts from the position that previous attempts to classify and identify heterodox economics have been biased towards a priori definition. The paper aims to inform the discussion of the nature of heterodoxy with some empirical analysis. The paper examines survey data collected from a small/medium‐sized sample of AHE members on the core concepts in economics. The paper applies factor analysis to the data. It also applies principles of biological taxonomy, and thence cluster analysis to the problem. The paper finds that within the self‐identified community of self‐identified heterodox economists there is little agreement as to whether members are pluralist, or what their attitude is to the mainstream. Indeed, there is little agreement on any core concepts or principles. The paper argues that there is little structure to heterodox economics beyond that provided by pre‐existing (or constituent) schools of thought. Based on this study, heterodox economics appears a complex web of interacting individuals and as a group is a fuzzy set. These results would lead us to question further strict distinctions between heterodox, mainstream and pluralist economists.     

Managerial Values and Rationality in the UK National Health Service

The reforms of the National Health Service arising from the White Paper Working for Patients , were predicated on a particular view of management and the implementation of the changes heralded by this act relied heavily on the actions of the managers charged with carrying them through. This article reports on work undertaken to discover how middle managers responded to this challenge. The views of middle managers concerning the values that guide their work are explored in the context of managing in the reformed NHS. Data were collected by means of a focused ethnography and analysed thematically. This process was informed, in part, by recourse to Weber's conceptualization of rationality. It was found that managers are struggling to reconcile the demands inherent in their role that arise from contrasting and often competing rationalities, which is a reflection of conflict over priorities in the wider health policy environment.     

产权演化视角下的土地征收补偿合理化——基于地方政府与征地农户之间的关系

研究目的:运用演化博弈方法,基于现有制度条件、有限理性和主体学习的博弈框架,论证征收补偿标准逐步合理化产生的过程和机理,理清地方政府与征地农户之间的动态博弈关系。研究方法:演化博弈方法和图示分析法。研究结果:1.随着经济社会的发展,土地的潜在价值被逐渐挖掘,形成新的价值体系。原产权主体——征地农户与地方政府会不断强化对其的控制和拥有,逐步形成以新价值体系保护为目标的产权结构和形态;2.土地新价值体系发现及形成后,地方政府采用行政征收权时会与征地农户产生激烈对抗,各主体依据各自利益诉求逐渐形成了目前征地补偿标准变化的新趋势。研究结论:随着经济社会的发展、农户维护自身利益的意识和政府维稳压力的增加,地方政府较之前更加愿意分享土地的潜在价值,形成土地征收补偿标准逐渐合理化的趋势。     

Does Managerial Behavior Determine Farm Technical Efficiency? A Case of Grape Production in an Economy in Transition

This study explores how farmers' managerial behavior in their production planning processes influences the economic performance of their farms, measured through input‐oriented and output‐oriented technical efficiency. A conceptual framework in which differences in managerial behavior were assumed to be due to bounded rationality was developed. The 3‐year means (2006–2008) from a panel data set on grape‐producing family farms in FYR Macedonia were analyzed. Technical efficiency was estimated with the nonparametric data envelopment analysis approach. The impact of farmers' managerial behavior was assessed in a second‐stage regression. The results suggest that bounded rationality in farmers' production planning decisions causes inefficiency. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

个体决策者有限理性的影响因素分析

有限理性是比完全理性更符合社会经济实际情况的假说。论文在相关文献梳理的基础上,主要从决策者自身和决策环境两方面来考虑,采用定性分析的方法对影响个体决策者有限理性的四大因素——认知、心智成本、不确定性和信息成本进行系统研究,分析有限理性与这四个影响因素之间的复杂关系,并对影响因素之间的交互效应进行研究。     

COMPLEXITY AND RANDOMNESS IN MATHEMATICS: PHILOSOPHICAL REFLECTIONS ON THE RELEVANCE FOR ECONOMIC MODELLING

Abstract Mathematics itself is a complex system. It exemplifies complexity at the level of structure, hierarchy and so on. There is also an interesting notion of complexity present in the meaning of mathematical ‘alphabets’. These are unique writing strategies of mathematics. Yet another marker of complexity lies in the process of applying mathematics to models. Using mathematics in modelling is a process of deciding what kinds of models to construct and what types of mathematics to use. Modelling can be seen as a decision‐making process where the scientists are the agents. However in choosing mathematical structures the scientist is not being optimally rational. In fact, fertile uses of mathematics in the sciences show a complicated use of mathematics that cannot be reduced to a method or to rational principles. This paper argues that the discourse of satisficing and bounded rationality well describes the process of choice and decision inherent in modelling.     

新审计准则中的理性假设解读

新的风险导向审计迫使我们重新思考审计中的人性假设。由有限理性出发,可以更好地理解和把握审计风险要素存在的根由,过程理性可以解释准则中反复强调的修订行为。从知识管理的视角看,专业准则的完善、强制性的后续教育、深入社会实践、加强事务所内外沟通都是扩展个体有限理性的理想途径。     

Bounded rationality,anchoring-and-adjustment sentiment,and asset pricing

This paper presents a framework that incorporates an investor’s limited attention and anchoring and adjustment sentiment and their joint effects on asset pricing, with endogenous cost of neglecting part of the dividends and the asymmetric rationality levels of investors. We find that the combined effect of the two bounded rationality factors is often embodied in the “loss”, and the retail investors are insensitive to market sentiment and forced to pay more cognitive loss. A higher level of investor rationality and bullish market sentiment will jointly increase demand and then prices, while the effects of different bounded rationality factors are asymmetric.     

不完全契约理论发展前景探究

交易费用经济学(TCE)和产权理论(PRT)是不完全契约理论两个重要的理论分支,威廉姆森(2010)对TCE发展刚做了阶段性归纳整理,哈特(2011)则正在引领PRT迈向行为经济学,近年来TCE和PRT的理论发展都取得不少进展,现在正是对这些工作进行阶段性总结的时机。本文将在介绍TCE和PRT理论的基本思路和发展的基础上,针对契约不完全的理解、有限理性假设、事前激励与事后激励等关键问题进行理论探究。     

The Marshallian Industrial District,an organizational and institutional answer to uncertainty

The object of this paper is to clarify the Marshallian ideas of agents, markets and evolution that make up his concept of the industrial district. The industrial district is interpreted as an organizational and institutional answer to uncertainty. Its longevity depends on the strategies of the local economic actors, the fruition of external economies and its adaptation to a particular trade and technological environment. These propositions are illustrated with regard to contemporary industrial history.     

冒风险的决策者：聪明乎？糊涂乎？

决策是对行为的选择——选择做什么或者不做什么,是人类的高级认知活动之一。风险决策特指决策者在对未来情况不完全确定、但是确知各种决策后果以及各种后果出现概率情况下的决策。人们如何进行风险决策,一直是经济学和心理学非常关心的未解之谜。本文尝试从有限理性的角度,分析“齐当别”抉择模型是如何理解、解释人们的风险决策过程,并讨论了“最终的决策只能在单一维度上进行”这一决策规则在现实生活中的旨趣和寓意。