NON‐LINEAR DYNAMICS,COMPLEXITY AND RANDOMNESS: ALGORITHMIC FOUNDATIONS

Abstract In this paper I make an attempt to describe, discuss and extend a few aspects of the rich mathematical tapestry that can be woven with rigorous notions of non‐linear dynamics, complexity and randomness, in terms of algorithmic mathematics. It is a tapestry that I try to weave with economic analysis, economic theory and economic modelling in mind. All three notions – that is, non‐linear dynamics, complexity and randomness – have a rich conceptual, modelling or analytic tradition in core areas of economic theory, both at the micro and macro levels. It is the algorithmic foundation I try to provide for them that could be considered the novel contribution in this paper. Once the algorithmic foundations are in place, it is, for example, almost natural to consider the famed difficulties of obtaining closed form solutions for non‐linear, complex or random dynamic models in economics almost a trivial vestige of a pre‐simulation era in mathematical modelling.     

AN ALGORITHMIC INFORMATION THEORETIC APPROACH TO THE BEHAVIOUR OF FINANCIAL MARKETS

Using frequency distributions of daily closing price time series of several financial market indices, we investigate whether the bias away from an equiprobable sequence distribution found in the data, predicted by algorithmic information theory, may account for some of the deviation of financial markets from log‐normal, and if so for how much of said deviation and over what sequence lengths. We do so by comparing the distributions of binary sequences from actual time series of financial markets and series built up from purely algorithmic means. Our discussion is a starting point for a further investigation of the market as a rule‐based system with an algorithmic component, despite its apparent randomness, and the use of the theory of algorithmic probability with new tools that can be applied to the study of the market price phenomenon. The main discussion is cast in terms of assumptions common to areas of economics in agreement with an algorithmic view of the market.     

经济数学教学中引入经典经济模型的探讨

经济数学是经济与管理专业的重要基础课程。教师在讲授经济数学的基本概念和定理的过程中,引入经典经济模型进行教学,能够很好激发学生的学习兴趣,把数学知识较好的内化到所学专业中,搭起理论联系实际的平台。     

Undecidability, Computation Universality and Minimality in Economic Dynamics*

An attempt is made, in this paper, to pose questions about economic dynamics in the broad areas of microeconomics, behavioural economics and macroeconomics from the point of view of classical recursion theory. This viewpoint makes it imperative that the fundamental economic entities in question are given an algorithmic formulation. Algorithms, in turn, are intrinsically dynamic objects which, if they are nontrivial, encapsulate nonlinear dynamics in novel ways such that it is possible to ask decidability questions and obtain effective answers about the economic entities.
It is shown, formally, that rational economic behaviour is comfortably consistent with nonmaximum, disequilibrium and unstable economic dynamics in core areas of microeconomics, behavioural economics and macroeconomics.     

The economics of the Books of Moses

The Books of Moses contained economic precepts that made a twofold impact in the history of economic thought. First, Mosaic precepts shaped Israel's transition from a nomadic to a sedentary economy. This transition as such had parallels in many other societies, but Israel's case was unique in that Moses grounded economic precepts on theology. Second, Moses shaped conceptions of economics by Jews and by non‐Jews, in two ways: first, he laid a path for theologically derived economics that continued in Christianity and in Islam; second, he cast terms of reference for the right to own property that were dominant in Western economic thinking until the Enlightenment.     

VARIATIONS ON THE THEME OF CONNINGa IN MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS

Abstract The mathematization of economics is almost exclusively in terms of the mathematics of real analysis which, in turn, is founded on set theory (and the axiom of choice) and orthodox mathematical logic. In this paper I try to point out that this kind of mathematization is replete with economic infelicities. The attempt to extract these infelicities is in terms of three main examples and one general discussion: dynamics, policy and rational expectations and learning are the examples; a game theory without ‘subjectivism’, based on the axiom of determinateness, is discussed in general terms. The focus is on the role and reliance of standard fixed‐point theorems in orthodox mathematical economics.     

System economics: Overcoming the pitfalls of forecasting models via a multidisciplinary approach

In areas from medicine to climate change to economics, we are faced with huge challenges and a need for accurate forecasts, yet our ability to predict the future has been found wanting. The basic problem is that complex systems such as the atmosphere or the economy can not be reduced to simple mathematical laws and modeled accordingly. The equations in numerical models are therefore only approximations to reality, and are often highly sensitive to external influences and small changes in parameterisation — they can be made to fit past data, but are less good at prediction. Since decisions are usually based on our best models of the future, how can we proceed? This paper draws a comparison between two apparently different fields: biology and economics. In biology, drug development is a highly inefficient and expensive process, which in the past has relied heavily on trial and error. Institutions such as pharmaceutical companies and universities are now radically changing their approach and adopting techniques from the new field of systems biology to integrate information from disparate sources and improve the development process. A similar revolution is required in economics if models are to reflect the nature of human economic activity and provide useful tools for policy makers. We outline the main foundations for a theory of systems economics.     

MODELLING COGNITIVELY BOUNDED RATIONALITY: AN EVALUATIVE TAXONOMY

Abstract Since its origins in the 1950s, the notion of bounded rationality has been incorporated into economic theory using an array of methodological approaches. This paper presents a taxonomy by which these approaches can be categorized and understood, evaluating each approach against a range of important criteria. At a time when the foundations of economic theory are being re‐examined, this paper should be viewed as a first step towards an assessment of the appropriate role that this more realistic view of cognition should take in different areas of economic theory, and also of the desirable characteristics of models that incorporate it.     

经济学实验室建设在高等职业学校教学中的应用

随着经济全球化和全球信息化的快速发展,社会对经济与管理类专业人才的需求越来越迫切。但是,要培养出大量合格的、具有创新精神和实践能力的经济与管理类专业的高素质人才,必须要有高水平的实验室作为保障。如何培养和造就厚基础、宽口径、高素质、强能力、重实践、重个性的经济管理类应用型人才成为经济管理类院校的新课题。而加强实验室建设,则成为使学生既了解经济及管理科学的理论,又掌握动手实践的技能的有效路径。     

WHAT'S IN A SIGN ? TRADEMARK LAW AND ECONOMIC THEORY

Abstract.  The aim of this paper is to summarize the extant theory as it relates to the economics of trademark, and to give some suggestions for further research with reference to distinct streams of literature. The proposed line of study inevitably looks at the complex relationship between signs and economics.
Trademark is a sign introduced to remedy a market failure. It facilitates purchase decisions by indicating the provenance of the goods, so that consumers can identify specific quality attributes deriving from their own, or others', past experience. Trademark holders, on their part, have an incentive to invest in quality because they will be able to reap the benefits in terms of reputation.
In other words, trademark law becomes an economic device which, opportunely designed, can produce incentives for maximizing market efficiency. This role must, of course, be recognized, as a vast body of literature has done, with its many positive economic consequences.
Nevertheless, trademark appears to have additional economic effects that should be equally recognized: it can determine the promotion of market power and the emergence of rent-seeking behaviours. It gives birth to an idiosyncratic economics of signs where very strong protection tends to be assured, even though the welfare effects are as yet poorly understood. In this domain much remains to be done and the challenge to researchers is open.     

Problem-based learning: merging of economics and mathematics

We present problem-based learning as a strategy to assist students to integrate both mathematics and economics knowledge as well as develop other skills. We present basic information about problem-based learning, provide an example of an economics problem that could be used in an early undergraduate mathematics course, and provide sources for additional economics problems and information about problem-based learning. While faculty will seldom have a class composed entirely of economics students, the examples that we provide do not require in-depth knowledge of economics but will help undergraduates develop some understanding of the economic world they live in.     

SHIFTING SANDS: NON‐LINEARITY,COMPLEXITY AND RANDOMNESS IN ECONOMICS

Abstract The great crash of 2008 and the associated banking crisis have exposed the increasing irrelevance of much mainstream economics and provoked some economists to re‐examine their discipline. Linear or linearized models with well‐behaved additive stochastic disturbances, based on ‘microeconomic foundations’ are no longer anywhere near adequate. Non‐linearity, complexity and randomness cannot be avoided, and the ideas of the British Emergentists have recently been given a new lease of life. Basing economics on algorithmic foundations provides a means of restoring genuine rigour to economics and, it is hoped, allowing the discipline to respond in a rational and humane way the next time a major crisis looms.     

Catholic Social Thought and New Institutional Economics: An Assessment of Their Affinities and Areas of Potential Convergence

The potential link between Catholic social teaching (CST) and the theoretical developments associated with new institutional economics (NIE) are explored. The emphasis is on the contributions of two Nobel Prize winners in economics—Douglass C. North and Elinor Ostrom—and on the work of political scientist Vincent Ostrom. By adjusting the neoclassical presumptions dominating modern economic theory to include culture, ideas, and religious beliefs in the analysis of economic behavior, the economic and social theorizing developed by these scholars advances a framework that has significant affinities with CST’s foundational critique of economic concepts and theories and with its normative position regarding the nature and functioning of social and economic systems.     

Henry George and the Classical Scientific Research Program: George's Modification of It and His Real Significance for Future Generations

Abstract . Henry George's revision of classical economics was based on a new “hard core” assumption linking efficiency, equity, and social welfare to a revised concept of property rights in land. However, rather than create new core supporting “protective belt” theories, George either accepted or, when necessary, modified existing classical theories especially those which threatened his new hard core, for example, classical “wages-fund” theory. Consequently, George's adaptation of the Ricardian “stationary state” model was less accurate than mainstream classical economics in its predictions concerning the behavior of the distributive shares of income over time, and the effects of technological change on economic growth and economic welfare. Without its own protective belt, George's classicism became a special case of classical economics whose value, nevertheless, existed in its effective criticism of classical property rights theory.     

城乡联系及统筹城乡的战略性问题

关于城乡联系的传统经济理论大致可归纳为城市为主导、乡村为主导、城乡一体和城乡互动三方面,新兴古典经济学的城市化理论和新经济地理学理论则为城乡联系理论增加了新的内涵.以城乡联系理论为基础并结合对建国以来城乡关系及城市化进程的历史考察,提出了统筹城乡发展应重点关注主现愿望与客观规律的矛盾、政府的角色和职责定位、城市化的地位及其道路选择等重要战略性问题并分析给出了方向性的政策建议.     

TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS: THE PRECURSORS

Theories commonly progress through four stages, from informal to pre‐formal to semi‐formal and fully formal. This paper reports on the earliest stage of transaction cost economics that extended from the 1920s to the 1970s. That the gestation stage lasted so long is partly because transaction cost economics departed significantly from the then‐prevailing economic orthodoxy. Also, and related, it is an interdisciplinary undertaking. As reported herein, transaction cost economics selectively combines economics, organisation theory and law and is the product of the contributions of some of the finest minds in those three fields.     

重构流通经济学:基于商务经济学的视角

流通经济学研究的贫困问题不容忽视。主要原因在于学科的基本概念模糊、学科定位不准、没有一个科学的研究范式。但是,流通经济学贫困不能否定流通经济学科的存在。构建商务经济学是解决流通经济学贫困的出路,因为它拓宽了流通经济学的研究领域和研究空间,使得流通、贸易、商业等术语使用混乱的状况得到改善。商务经济学可以加速内外贸学科一体化,突出电子商务的作用。     

CLIO AND THE ECONOMIST: MAKING HISTORIANS COUNT

Abstract Cliometrics reconnected economic history and economics in the 1960s. The deeper foundations of cliometrics research lie in the longer standing traditions of quantitative history and the contemporaneous growth of the social sciences and computing. Early cliometrics research reinterpreted economic history through the lens of neo‐classical economics. Over the past half century cliometrics has matured and now utilizes a broad array of theoretical perspectives and statistical methods to help understand the past. The papers introduced here illustrate the achievements of several key areas of cliometrics research and show how new theoretical perspectives, innovative data construction and sophisticated econometric methods are the hallmarks of the discipline.     

Adolph Lowe's Methodological Alternative for Economic Research and Policy

A bstract . Social scientists and philosophers are engaged in a profound re-examination of the foundations of economic science. Among them the economist, Adolph Lowe , opened a new vista. First, in his Economics and Sociology: A Plea for Cooperation in the Social Sciences (1935) he argued compellingly for a unified social science. Lowe introduced there the concept of " instrumental analysis " which he greatly modified in On Economic Knowledge (1965) and applied to a major issue of contemporary economics in The Path of Economic Growth (1976). Instrumental analysis is intended to achieve a system of " political economics ," a theory for deriving one or more paths—a sequence of positions—over which an initial state of an economy can be transformed into a terminal state—a goal itself stipulated by political decision. Instrumental analysis is also used to determine measures of public control to achieve the behavioral pattern suitable to set and keep the system on the goal-adequate trajectory.     

论制度经济学与中国经济发展

本文介绍了马克思主义制度经济学和西方制度经济学的发展和主要理论,并与中国经济发展结合,从制度经济学的角度研究了中国经济在进一步发展中应该重点关注的问题。