The Emergence of Market Power in Emission Rights Markets: The Role of Initial Permit Distribution

This paper offers an analytical model of emission permit markets in which a large number of regulated emitters participate, and derives formulae that estimate the degree of market distortion. These formulae clearly show the entire dependence of the ratio of market prices to competitive levels on the permit initial distribution as well as the existence of a threshold for effective market power. While the findings challenge a well-known conception of the Coase Theorem, they have significant policy implications vis-à-vis the Kyoto Protocol and the related policy debates on excess emission rights known as hot air.     

The effect of the Kyoto Protocol on international trade flows: evidence from G20 countries

This study examines the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on trade using gravity model with a Quandt–Andrews test for detection of structural break with G20 countries data. The structural break on international trade took place in 2003 that is around 1 year after the adoption of the Marrakesh Accords which includes the detailed implementation rules of the Kyoto Protocol. According to estimation results, this study can support the negative effect of environmental regulations on trade flows.     

Enforcing Transferable Permit Systems in the Presence of Market Power

We derive an enforcementstrategy for a transferable permit system inthe presence of market power that achievescomplete compliance in a cost-effective manner.We show that the presence of a firm with marketinfluence makes designing an enforcementstrategy more difficult than enforcing aperfectly competitive system. We alsore-consider Hahn's (1984) suggestion that afirm with market influence should be allocatedpermits so that it chooses to not participatein the permit market. When enforcement and itscosts are taken into account, Hahn's suggestiondoes not hold except in a very special case.     

碳排放权交易的CO2减排效应研究——基于包含溢出效应的SCM

碳排放权交易是否实现最初的CO₂减排目标需要实证检验,已有的研究未考虑政策溢出效应以及混淆政策的存在,可能导致政策干预效用的错误估计。论文基于地区能源平衡表以及水泥生产数据对CO₂进行测算,并采用包含溢出效应的合成控制模型对我国6个碳排放交易试点省份的减排效用分别进行了估计,该模型放松了“非实验单元不受干预效应影响”的假定,在溢出效应以及类似政策存在的情况下仍能得到无偏的估计。为了保证估计结果的稳健性,对效用估计值进行了安慰剂、溢出权重设定以及合成权重三方面的检验,探索了各试点碳交易市场的减排效用在量以及趋势上的差异,为全国统一碳交易市场的构建提供定量的依据。     

不同市场条件下的初始排污权免费分配方法的选择

要实施排污权交易制度，在理论和实践中首先要解决的一个关键问题是初始排污权的分配问题。因为在实践中以初始排污权的免费分配方式更具有操作性，所以亟待解决的是初始排污权免费分配方案的选择与制定。本文研究的是在不同的市场条件下分析、建立并选择适合的初始排污权免费分配的分配模型。     

我国火力发电行业SO2排放许可限值约束作用研究

2017年,我国环保部门完成了火力发电等行业的排污许可证的核发,对我国建设排污权交易制度和实现“一证式”环境管理体制具有重要意义。围绕排污许可证中污染物的排放许可限值展开研究,应用脱钩原理对我国2003—2017年火力发电行业SO2排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系进行分析,并基于脱钩理论,结合灰色预测方法GM(1,1)并运用情景假设法分析评价了排污许可证对我国2018—2020年火力发电行业SO2排放的约束作用强弱及其合理性,并提出建议。     

低碳经济背景下国际碳金融市场发展及风险研究

随着全球对气候问题的持续关注,碳金融市场发展也越来越被各国所重视。与传统意义上的金融相比,碳金融的核心是围绕着碳排放权展开的。因此,从碳金融的本质来看,碳金融与低碳经济是相辅相成的。目前国际碳金融市场具有碳交易规模飞速增长、基于配额的交易占据绝对主导地位、市场参与主体广泛及碳金融产品日益多样化、欧盟占据主要地位及欧元成为主要结算货币等特征,同时也具有系统性风险和非系统性风险。中国不仅要积极地参与国际碳金融市场,而且还要从全局的角度思考应对气候变化的国家战略问题,具体包括加强宣传力度、培育中介机构、落实政策支持、加强风险应对能力建设等方面。     

关于我国股市知情交易水平及其性质的实证研究

基于Easley、Hvidkjaer和O'Hara的序贯交易模型与PIN (Probability of Information-based Trading,基于信息的交易比率)指标对我国股市知情交易情况进行的实证分析研究结果表明:(1)我国股市信息不对称程度较高;(2)由于知情交易者利用坏消息的能力有限且流动性交易水平较高,我国股市知情交易比率并不太高;(3)知情交易比率与后续期间股票收益率的负相关性,表明我国股市中市场操控型知情交易比较严重.因此,我们认为应进一步完善上市公司的信息披露制度,降低投资者之间的信息不对称程度,同时确保流动性投资者参与股市的积极性;在引入做空机制时应慎重考虑和综合权衡,避免不适当地增加流动性投资者所承担的逆向选择风险水平,降低股市的流动性供给和风险分散功能;证券市场监管部门应进一步加强对异常交易活动的监控,加大对市场操纵行为的打击力度,以确保我国证券市场的健康发展.     

中国电力行业排污权交易机制设计研究——基于欧美国家的相关经验

排污权交易对排污企业具有内在的调节激励作用,其较传统的行政管制能更有效地促进环境容量资源的有效配置。基于此,本文通过对排污权交易和欧美国家的相关经验进行简要介绍,同时结合我国电力行业的自身特征,构建了我国电力行业排污权交易市场的机制设计框架,并提出了相关的政策建议。     

Market Power with Interdependent Demand: Sale of Emission Permits and Natural Gas from Russia

With implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, Russia will most likely be able to exert market power in the emission permit market. But, as Russia is also a big exporter of fossil fuels, the incentives to boost the permit price may be weak. However, a significant share of Russia’s fossil fuel exports is natural gas. If a high permit price boosts the demand for natural gas through substitution from more polluting fuels and thus increase gas profits, this may increase the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market. Moreover, a large fossil fuel exporter may use its market position to influence the effective demand for permits. Hence, the relationship between permit income and fossil fuels exports runs in both directions. In this article, we explore the interdependence between the revenues from permit and fossil fuel exports both theoretically and numerically. A computable general equilibrium model suggests the fact that Russia as a big gas exporter has small effect on the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market. Moreover, Russia’s monopoly power in the permit market has a small, but non-negligible impact on the optimal level of Russian gas exports.     

市场型环境规制与企业绿色创新——来自碳排放交易试点的证据

为研究碳排放交易政策对企业绿色技术创新的影响,验证“波特假说”在中国市场化环境规制改革背景下的成立性,以2006—2019年中国A股上市公司的绿色技术创新数据为研究样本,利用双重差分和三重差分模型研究发现碳排放交易政策对企业绿色创新具有显著的促进作用,从而“波特假说”成立,且该结论能够通过稳健性检验;进一步研究发现,碳排放交易政策对企业绿色技术创新的促进作用主要来源于企业原有创新活动基础上的“杠杆作用”;拓展研究发现,该促进作用主要存在于国有企业、规模较大的企业和高碳排放的行业;此外,碳排放交易试点政策在提高绿色创新质量方面起到了积极作用。     

期货市场交易量与收益及波动关系的分位分析

采用分位数回归方法对上海期货市场铜、铝和燃料油期货收益及波动与成交量的动态关系进行实证研究。该方法允许估计不同分位的方程,从而得到条件分布的完整描述。结果显示上海期货市场期货价格收益具有异方差的特点;存在量价齐扬和量价背离现象;收益波动和成交量之间随着波动增大呈现逐渐加强的正向关系,从而说明我国期货市场信息传播符合混合分布假说。     

融资融券交易的市场冲击效应研究——基于中国台湾证券市场的经验与启示

融资融券交易是证券市场的重要组成部分,它的推出会对整个市场产生何种影响是非常值得研究的问题.文章利用中国台湾证券市场的融资融券交易数据,从市场流动性与波动性角度研究融资融券交易对整个市场的冲击效应.研究结果表明,融资买空交易有助于提升整个市场的流动性水平,在一定程度上可以改善市场流动性水平相对不足的状况,但融券卖空交易对市场流动性水平没有显著影响;融资买空与融券卖空交易并未显著影响整个市场的波动性水平.文章建议证券监管部门可以将融资融券交易保证金率作为市场调控工具,通过适时调整保证金率调控整个市场,避免市场出现大幅震荡.     

流动性补偿、信息不对称与市场预期:央票发行对央票交易成本的影响分析

基于对经济正常波动时期与金融危机时期央票发行对央票交易成本的影响分析,结论表明央票交易成本中流动性成本显著高于信息不对称成本。在经济正常波动时期,央票发行顺应市场预期,央票发行并未引起流动性成本和信息不对称成本的显著变化;在金融危机时期,央票发行出乎市场预期,央票发行引起信息不对称成本显著增加,指令流自相关系数显著降低。而央票市场的信息不对称成本,主要来源于机构投资者对公开信息的解读不同。     

中国商业银行市场势力、效率及其福利效应

文章对中国商业银行1998-2007年的市场势力与效率之间的关系及其福利效应进行了初步研究。结果表明,运用随机前沿成本函数所估计的贷款边际成本大于存款边际成本,四大国有银行的市场势力勒纳指数明显大于股份制商业银行,国有银行行政性市场势力不容忽视。在此基础上,文章估计了基于市场势力的社会福利效应,因银行成本无效率带来的福利损失远大于因市场势力而引致的社会福利损失。检验安逸生活假设表明,贷款市场拒绝安逸生活假设,而存款市场接受安逸生活假设。贷款市场势力对银行业发展具有一定的负面作用,而银行生产率的提高促进了银行业的持续发展。     

The political economy triangle of government spending,interest-group influence,and income inequality: Evidence and implications from the US states

This paper introduces the political economy triangle (PET) concept of government spending, special interest groups (SIGs) influence, and income inequality, empirically confirming its existence and unveiling its nature while directly addressing key shortcomings of most prior research on the determinants of such inequality. Using static and dynamic panel techniques and data from the US states, it reports several new results: (i) the findings of previous studies regarding the roles of government spending and interest groups, including labor unions, in income distribution are confirmed, however, their estimated inequality effects grossly underestimate those obtained when endogeneity issues are accounted for explicitly; (ii) a dynamic tripartite relationship between the variables of the PET exists; (iii) government spending and SIGs' influence, including union strength, beyond their direct effects on inequality, have a separate positive impact through their interactions; (iv) the effectiveness of government spending in reducing inequality diminishes as the level of SIGs' influence and union strength increase in the short and long run, (v) the aggregate inequality-increasing effect of SIGs is strengthened and the inequality-reducing effects of unions weakened as the spending rises, in the short run and long run. Finally, the broad implications of these findings are discussed.