我国银行业资本充足监管有效性分析——以上市银行为例

次贷危机的引爆充分暴露了杠杆比率过高的金融机构的经营风险,资本充足监管对银行的战略意义再次凸显,对资本充足监管有效性的分析也显得更加重要.目前,我国银行资本充足水平达标并不是来自外部资本市场和银行绩效的提升,而是监管上级的压力.在对我国14家上市银行2006-2007年的混合数据回归分析后发现,和国际著名的银行不同,我国上市银行资本充足监管有效性并不明显.其中的原因可能包括:银行的垄断竞争的行业特征、政府对银行的隐性担保以及不完善的制度环境.目前,次贷危机的爆发使得资本充足监管越来越被全球主要经济体的共同认可,作为<巴塞尔协议>的签约国,资本充足监管的正常化以及制度化才是正确的选择.要提高资本充足监管的有效性,重点应积极完善市场约束的功能.完善我国银行业的公司治理结构以及健全银行业所处的市场环境.     

监管误差对资本充足监管有效性的影响

任何一项监管措施的实施效果,都受到客观条件以及主观因素的限制,资本充足监管也不例外。本文尝试从“监管误差”的角度探讨资本充足监管的有效性,发现:监管误差对资本充足监管的有效性具有巨大的影响,甚至会造成资本充足监管的无效;同时,资本充足监管对抑制监管误差的负面影响具有一定的作用。实际上,正是监管误差的存在导致了资本充足监管制度的产生与不断发展。     

商业银行监管资本套利与资本有效配置

监管资本套利作为巴塞尔协议的一个未曾预料的结果,在西方发达国家发展非常迅速,它在为银行创造价值的同时,却可能破坏资本充足性要求作为一个审慎政策工具的有效性。本文使用银行资本的基本理论,分析了巴塞尔协议下监管资本套利产生的原因、主要形式及其影响,并就如何降低监管资本套利,提高资本监管的效率,以及对商业银行经济资本进行有效配置提出相应的对策建议。     

新监管标准对中国商业银行资本管理的影响及建议

为加强金融监管,中国银监会借鉴国际金融监管改革成果,根据《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》和国内银行业实际情况,确立了中国银行业新监管标准。新资本充足率标准将使银行在未来面临资本补充压力,杠杆率和贷款损失准备标准将抑制银行贷款过快增长,流动性标准将促进银行业务转型。新监管标准有助于构建更加完善的银行业监管体系,但在拨备覆盖率和贷款拨备率指标上似乎还存在一定的局限性。根据新监管标准,此文提出了商业银行资本管理的建议。     

新监管标准对中国商业银行资本管理的影响及建议

为加强金融监管,中国银监会借鉴国际金融监管改革成果,根据《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》和国内银行业实际情况,确立了中国银行业新监管标准。新资本充足率标准将使银行在未来面临资本补充压力,杠杆率和贷款损失准备标准将抑制银行贷款过快增长,流动性标准将促进银行业务转型。新监管标准有助于构建更加完善的银行业监管体系,但在拨备覆盖率和贷款拨备率指标上似乎还存在一定的局限性。根据新监管标准,此文提出了商业银行资本管理的建议。     

巴塞尔协议与保险业偿付能力监管标准

银行业与保险业监管体系中,资本充足性监管都占据核心位置,分别以资本充足率和偿付能力充足率作为衡量资本充足性的关键指标。巴塞尔协议是全球银行业资本充足性监管的统一标准,监管理念与方法处于金融业前     

资本充足要求下货币政策与银行监管的联系

本文借鉴Kopecky-VanHoose有关资本约束对银行信贷影响的模型,将银行资本内生化,通过分析银行在资本充足率管理的约束条件下经营目标最优化情形,阐释了银行监管与货币政策的联系。文章最后针对我国银行业发展现状,分析资本充足要求下的银行监管和货币政策的联系对我国货币政策和银行监管政策制定的启示及对银行业管理的意义,并提出协调两者目标一致性的政策建议。     

评析巴塞尔资本协议Ⅲ对全球资本监管改革的影响

为避免全球金融危机重演,来自27个经济体的央行及监管机构负责人于2010年9月12日在瑞士达成巴塞尔资本协议Ⅲ。它代表着全球资本标准的根本性加强,在现有规约的基础之上,不仅上调了针对银行的资本充足比例要求,新增了资本缓冲要求,而且配合以流动性约束,给予充分的过渡时间。其目的在于确保银行经营的健全性,进而保障整个金融体系的稳定。本文主要对巴塞尔资本协议Ⅲ的核心内容及其六大亮点进行研究,深入分析了该协议对全球经济及银行业的深远影响,最后对我国银行业监管提出几点建议。     

中国资本充足监管对银行盈利影响的实证研究

资本充足监管实施以来,我国银行业的整体资本充足率水平持续走低,银行的资本约束意识和资本管理能力没有得到明显提高,信息披露严重不足,资本充足监管软约束的问题较为突出,这些似乎都显示了资本充足监管在我国的实施效果并不理想。在这种现实背景下,分析资本充足监     

贷款损失准备金与资本充足率监管——来自日本银行业的实证分析

在以资本充足率监管为核心的国际银行业监管框架内,贷款损失准备金是影响资本充足率监管有效性的重要因素。本文运用向量自回归模型实证考察了日本银行业贷款准备金政策对资本的影响,实证结果表明:(1)银行增加贷款准备金计提在短期内会对资本造成负面冲击,而长期内却有利于提高资本水平;(2)短期内贷款准备金对资本的负面冲击向长期内贷款准备金对稳定和提高资本水平均衡调整的速度很慢,意味着贷款准备金政策的缺陷严重削弱了日本银行业资本监管的有效性。本文从日本银行业贷款准备金政策的发展进一步分析了实证结果的原因,并且指出我国实施资本充足率监管在完善贷款准备金政策方面的建议。     

The Generalized Treynor Ratio

This paper extends the Treynor performance ratio for a single index to the case of multiple indexes. The new measure, called the Generalized Treynor Ratio, preserves the same key geometric and analytical properties of the original Treynor Ratio. The Generalized Treynor Ratio is defined as the abnormal return of a portfolio per unit of premium-weighted average systematic risk, normalized by the premium-weighted average systematic risk of the benchmark. Numerical simulations reveal that the portfolio rankings produced with this measure are more precise and more stable than the ones provided by Jensen’s alpha and the Information Ratio.I wish to thank Wayne Ferson, Pascal François, Eric Jacquier, Lars Tyge Nielsen, Nicolas Papageorgiou, Peter Schotman, Marco Pagano (the Editor) and three anonymous referees, as well as participants at the 2003 International AFFI Conference (Lyon), the 2003 NFA Conference (Qu’ebec) and seminars at Maastricht University and CORE (Louvain-la-Neuve) for helpful comments. The author acknowledges financial support from Deloitte Luxemburg and a research grant of the Belgian National Funds for Scientific Research (FNRS). Part of this research was completed while I was visiting HEC Montr’ eal. All errors remaining are mine.     

The Long-Term Price-Earnings Ratio

Abstract:  The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and is the subject of numerous academic studies. However, in existing research it has almost exclusively been calculated on the basis of the previous year's earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated due to taking too short-term a view of earnings. Looking at all UK companies since 1975, using the traditional P/E ratio we find the difference in average annual returns between the value and glamour deciles to be 6%. This is similar to other authors' findings. We are able to almost double the value premium by calculating the P/E ratio using earnings averaged over the previous eight years.     

Ratio controls need reconsideration

Bank equity capital can play several roles; for example as a buffer against (unexpected) loss, as protection for other creditors in bankruptcy, and as ‘skin in the game’. There was never sufficient discussion of which role(s) the BCBS capital adequacy requirements (CARs) were meant to play, and whether they did so satisfactorily. In practice they did not. I discuss what principles should lie behind CARs if we could design these from scratch. I argue that there should be a minimum intervention point triggering official action to depose management and shareholders, and then move to resolution, with an increasingly penal ladder of sanctions as equity capital falls towards this point. A similar approach should also be applied to liquidity requirements.     

资本充足率、市值资产比例与银行风险

基于风险和回报的基本关系,本文检验了以会计指标为主要计量尺度的资本充足率和以市场指标为计量手段的市值资产比例是否能够代表银行风险。研究发现,会计指标在没有被操控的情况下可以预测银行风险。虽然资本充足率也能够反映银行风险,但市值资产比例对银行股价回报的解释力更强,尤其在危机时期。本文建议,监管机构依然可以坚持选用资本充足率这样的会计指标监控银行风险,同时辅以市场指标,因为中国资本市场受到人为因素和政策因素干扰较多,股票价格不一定如实反映内涵价值,还应该坚持以会计指标为主。     

Industry Identification through Ratio Analysis

This case ¹ is designed to help students “see through the numbers”. Written initially for MBA students and senior analysts attending executive education sessions, it provides participants with (1) a common‐size balance sheet and selected financial ratios for ten anonymous Canadian public companies, and (2) a list of ten diverse industry sectors. Participants are invited to reflect on the meanings of the different ratios provided in order to match the anonymous companies with their corresponding industry sector. Seeing through the numbers fosters the development of participants' analytical skills, and group discussions contribute to the sharing of participants' knowledge about the various industry segments involved.     

关于拨备覆盖率的思考

商业银行不良资产拨备覆盖率常常被作为衡最银行抵御信用风险能力的指标.本文认为,拨备覆盖率并非越高越好,南于其内在局限性,它反映银行抵御信用风险能力的准确程度受不良贷款结构和漏划不良贷款等因素的影响,并可能产牛扭曲对银行抵御风险能力的评价、掩盖银行真实的财务状况、影响银行利润的合理使用以及降低银行监管的严肃性和权威性等负面影响.因此,为完善拨备考核指标,本文提出应以预期损失为基础考核银行冲销不良贷款损失的实际能力,设计新的贷款减值拨备率指标;并认为在确定减值准备指标时,考虑系统性风险既无实际意义,也缺乏可操作性.     

准备金率考验企业资金面

目前,政府正在采取各种措施解决CPI偏高的问题,其中包括消除导致物价走高的货币因素。随着央行数次提高存款准备金率及加息,宏观政策已进入新一轮紧缩时期,企业的资金面将受到再次考验。     

Ratio Analysis Using Rank Transformation

This paper presents an alternate method for transforming financial ratios. Ratios are ranked and scaled into a uniform distribution with boundaries between 0 and 1. Conceptually, we suggest that this method solves a number of methodological problems associated with ratios, including constrained choice of regression models, ratio outliers, negative ratios, and non-normal distributions. Scaled ranks of financial ratios are also conceptually appealing because they appear to capture comparative ordinal data about cross-sectional relationships between firms.The study empirically tests scaled rank transformations by examining the association of the transformations with stock returns. Results show that models using relative ranked accounting ratios have more explanatory and predictive power than untransformed, log-transformed and square-root transformed ratios.