Networks or neighborhoods? Correlations in the use of publicly-funded maternity care in California

This study focuses on “network effects” in the utilization of publicly-funded prenatal care using Vital Statistics data from California for 1989-2000. Networks are defined using 5-digit zip codes and a woman's racial or ethnic group. Like others, we find evidence that the use of public programs is highly correlated within groups defined using race/ethnicity and neighborhoods. These correlations persist even when we control for many unobserved characteristics by including zip code-year fixed effects, and when we focus on the interaction between own group behavior and measures of the potential for contacts with other members of the group (“contact availability”). However, the richness of our data allows us to go further and to conduct several tests of one important hypothesis about networks: that the estimated effects represent information sharing within groups. The results cast doubt on the idea that the observed correlations can be interpreted as evidence of information sharing. In particular, we find estimated effects to be as large or larger among women who have previously used the program as among first-time users.     

Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions

This study examines the convergence of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions among a panel of U.S. states between the period 1960–2010. This examination is carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, we conduct an endogenous grouping, regression-based convergence test. Unlike previous studies, this methodology endogenously identifies groups of states with emissions that are converging to a similar steady state growth path over time. In the second stage, we evaluate the conditional rate of convergence for the whole sample and for each club using panel data, fixed effects models that control for unobserved, time-invariant heterogeneous effects. More specifically, we examine the rates of convergence conditional on certain structural and non-structural characteristics of the state economy. Results from stage one and stage two suggest that one group of twenty-six states is converging to a unique steady-state equilibrium, and otherwise, the remaining states are diverging. Finally, we discuss different policy approaches to mitigating carbon dioxide emissions based on the club convergence hypothesis.     

Game theory and speculation on government bonds

The aim of this paper is to propose a method to stabilize the rapid variations on the value of government bonds issued by the States, using Game Theory. In particular, we focus our attention on three players: a large speculative bank (hereinafter called Speculator), having immediate access to the market of government bonds, the European Central Bank (ECB) and a State in economic crisis, with a high public debt. In this regard, we will analyze the interaction between these three subjects: the Speculator, our first player, the ECB, our second player, and the State, our third player. The financial crisis, that hit the market of European government bonds, showed us that large speculators can influence the financial markets and benefit from the creation of arbitrage opportunities caused by themselves. In this way, the default probability of States in economic difficulty increases significantly and alarmingly. We already heard to talk about concepts like “spread” and “public debt,” which has crippled the economies of great States, for instance Italy. In this paper we propose on financial transactions the introduction of a tax, which hits only the speculative profits. We show how the above tax would probably be able to avert the speculation. For this purpose, we compare the different behaviors adopted by the Speculator and by the ECB in case of absence or presence of the tax, with the consequent effects on the State that sells its government bonds, paying particular attention to the movement of the game equilibria. In fact, with the introduction of our tax, all equilibria of the game become excellent for the State in economic difficulty.     

The impact of home production on economic inequality in Germany

Using representative income and time-use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we estimate non-monetary income advantages arising from home production and analyze their impact on economic inequality. As an alternative to existing measures, we propose a predicted wage approach that relaxes some of the strong assumptions underlying both the standard opportunity cost approach and the housekeeper wage approach. We also propose a method of adjusting the number of hours spent on home production to reduce the bias arising from multi-tasking and joint production in time-use data. Sensitivity analyses comparing results among different approaches provide indications of method effects. Although this study supports the evidence that considering home production leads to a reduction in inequality, we show that the size of this effect differs according to the variations in the mean and distribution of the estimated monetary value of home production across the three approaches. This finding underscores the need for a harmonized approach in cross-national comparative research.     

Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach*

In this paper, we investigate the impact on firms of the value added tax (VAT) reform that took effect in Sweden on 1 January 2012 for restaurant and catering services. Unlike previous research, we use a synthetic control group approach to construct our counterfactual. Our analysis shows that the VAT reduction had a positive effect on turnover, total wages, employment, profit margins, and net entry of firms. The effects of the reform tend to decrease over time. In all, the results point to an overall better performance for the restaurant industry compared with what it would have been in absence of the reform.     

Press freedom,market information,and international trade

We consider a framework in which freedom of the media can alleviate barriers to trade, while in the absence of trustworthy market information, firms optimally withhold part of their export activity and opt for testing-the-waters strategies. We employ data on export flows among a large group of Western and Latin American countries combined with the Freedom House measure of press freedom to examine the main theoretical implication. In a standard set-up of gravity equations, we find evidence that the effects are partially conditional on the political institutions of the importing country: press freedom is strongly associated with trade with autocracies.     

Mandatory Retirement and Older Worker Employment Decisions: Evidence from a Matched Difference‐in‐Differences Estimator

In 2008, the minimum age at which private‐sector workers in Taiwan could be forced by their employers to retire from their jobs was raised from 60 to 65 years. In this study, we evaluate the effects of the increase in the mandatory retirement age on the labour supply trend among the elderly using a nationally‐representative Taiwanese panel data set. Based upon the application of a combination of matching and difference‐in‐differences approaches, we find that postponing mandatory retirement has a significant effect, in terms of slowing down the withdrawal of the elderly from the labour force. Among elderly workers affected by the 2008 amendment, particularly those retiring from the public sector, the likelihood of re‐entering the labour market is found to be 3 to 4% higher than that for their counterparts who were not subject to such a constraint, a finding that clearly suggests that an increase in the mandatory retirement age helps to alleviate the problems associated with an aging population in countries where long‐term labour contracts are prevalent.     

Headlights on tobacco road to low birthweight outcomes

Low birthweight outcomes are associated with considerable social and economic costs, and therefore the possible determinants of low birthweight are of great interest. One such determinant which has received considerable attention is maternal smoking. From an economic perspective this is in part due to the possibility that smoking habits can be influenced through policy conduct. It is widely believed that maternal smoking reduces birthweight; however, the crucial difficulty in estimating such effects is the unobserved heterogeneity among mothers and the fact that estimation of conditional mean effects seems potentially inappropriate. We provide a unified view on the estimation of relationships between prenatal smoking and birthweight outcomes with quantile regression approaches for panel data and emphasize their differences. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways: (i) we focus not only on one technique, but provide evidence from several approaches and highlight a variety of statistical issues; (ii) the performance of the methods are thoroughly tested in a simulated environment, and recommendations are given on their appropriate use; (iii) our results are based on a detailed data set, which includes many relevant control variables for socio-economic, wealth, and personal characteristics.     

Re-matching, information and sequencing effects in posted offer markets

This paper evaluates the effects of some standard procedural variations on outcomes in posted offer oligopoly experiments. Variations studied include the presence or absence of market information, the use of re-matched or fixed seller pairs and alterations in the order of sequencing. Experimental results indicate that such variations can have first order effects on outcomes. For this reason, we recommend that results in oligopoly experiments be carefully interpreted in light of the procedures selected.

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Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.      

Local financial development,socio-institutional environment,and firm productivity: Evidence from Italy

This paper uses the case of Italy to investigate the effects of local financial and socio-institutional development on productivity. The analysis employs firm-level productivity data and exploits variations in banking sector development, judicial enforcement, and social capital across Italian provinces. After controlling for potential endogeneity, our empirical results suggest that the real effects of financial development are conditional on the quality of the socio-institutional environment. In particular, we find that the positive effects of greater financial depth on productivity are stronger when the socio-institutional environment is sufficiently developed. Therefore, to exploit potential productivity gains stimulated by financial development, it is necessary to achieve a higher-quality socio-institutional environment, including reducing the duration of civil trials.     

Supply-side effects of exchange rates, exchange rate expectations and induced currency depreciation

Within the context of a small open economy model, this paper examines the repercussions of induced currency depreciation. The results presented in this paper are based on a model with firm microeconomic foundations and which takes into account both the supply and demand-side effects of exchange rate variations. The distinguishing feature of the model is the role of exchange rate expectations. We consider three kinds of expectations; adaptive, extrapolative, and regressive expectations. We also perform several sensitivity tests based on these expectations. Our simulation exercise shows that the effect of induced currency depreciation depends largely on supply-side effects. In most cases, we find that currency depreciation results in (i) a fall in output, (ii) an increase in prices and (iii) an improvement in the balance of trade. In the absence of weak supply-side effects of exchange rates, we find that, if the Marshall-Lerner conditions hold, then depreciation of the home currency has a favorable effect on output but its effect on the balance of trade is negative.     

Reconciling the Returns to Education in Off-Farm Wage Employment in Rural China

Previous studies have found that the returns to education in rural China are far lower than estimates for other developing economies. In this paper, we seek to determine why previous estimates are so low and provide estimates of what we believe are more accurate measures of the returns. Whereas estimates for the early 1990s average 2.3 percent, we find an average return of 6.4 percent. Furthermore, we find even higher returns among younger people, migrants, and for post‐primary education. The paper demonstrates that, although part of the difference between our estimate and previous estimates can be attributed to increasing returns during the 1990s, a larger part of the difference is due to the nature of the data and the methodological approaches used by other authors.     

The role of identity and authority from anarchy to order: Insights from modeling the trajectory of dueling in Europe

The economics literature usually assumes order in terms of a Weberian state with monopoly over the means of violence. In this paper, we study historical situations in which such an order is absent and violent conflict namely duel of honor is an institution. Anarchy or the absence of state rules in managing violence does not imply the absence of private rules and arrangements (such as codes of dueling). Our focus is on the possible ways that a Weberian order can emerge from anarchy. We endeavor to capture this transition by introducing a computational model in which a simulated agent represents a social individual who considers both economic and political factors and interacts with other individuals as well as institutions to make a decision. We then use the trajectory of dueling in England, France, and Germany to validate our approach. The paper demonstrates how a complex, aggregative historical process over three centuries may be consistently explained on the basis of rational choices among heterogeneous agents conditioned by their group identity and State authority.     

Non-manipulable division rules in claim problems and generalizations

When resources are divided among agents, the characteristics of the agents are taken into consideration. A simple example is the bankruptcy problem, where the liquidation value of a bankrupt firm is divided among the creditors based on their claims. We characterize division rules under which no group of agents can increase the total amount they receive by transferring their characteristics within the group. By allowing agents’ characteristics to be multi-dimensional and choosing the meaning of variables appropriately, our model can subsume a number of existing and new allocation problems, such as cost sharing, social choice with transferable utilities, income redistribution, bankruptcy with multiple types of assets, probability updating, and probability aggregation. A number of existing and new results in specific problems are obtained as corollaries.     

Empirical research on monetary policy,asset prices and inflation: an analysis based on provincial panel data in China

In this article, we investigate the dynamic correlations among monetary policy, asset prices and inflation and assess the regional effects of monetary policy in China for the period October 2007 to July 2013. We focus on the interdependencies among monetary policy and asset price fluctuations by using the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate as the preferred variable for analysing monetary policy movement. In particular, we apply a vector autoregressive model in a panel setting, which allows researchers to examine variations over time or across individual regions. The empirical results presented herein indicate that monetary policy reacts actively to asset prices, although it is still shown to be ineffective. In addition, we find that asset prices display some regional differences in their response to an unexpected monetary policy shock.     

TRADE POLICY AND MARKET POWER: FIRM‐LEVEL EVIDENCE

This article identifies the effect of trade policy on market power through new data and a new identification strategy. We identify market power by observing how exporting firms price discriminate across markets following variations in bilateral exchange rates. Pricing‐to‐market is prevalent in all countries in our sample, even among small firms, although it is increasing in firm size. More importantly, we find that the effect of nontariff measures (NTMs) is not isomorphic to that of tariffs. Whereas tariffs reduce the market power of foreign firms through rent‐shifting effects, NTMs reinforce the market power of nonexiting firms, domestic and foreign alike.     

Peer group effects on the academic performance of Italian students

We analyse peer effects among students of a middle-sized Italian public university. We explain students’ average grade in exams passed during their Second Level Degree course on the basis of their pre-determined measures of abilities, personal characteristics and peer group abilities. Thanks to a rich administrative data set, we are able to build a variety of definitions of peer groups, describing different kinds of students’ interaction, based on classes attended together or exams taken in the same session. Self-selection problems are handled through Two-Stage Least Squares estimations using as an instrument, the exogenous assignment of students to different teaching classes in the compulsory courses attended during their First Level Degree course. We find statistically significant positive peer group effects, which are robust to the different definitions of peer group and to different measures of abilities.     

The impact of working conditions on sickness absence: a theoretical model and an empirical application to work schedules

This paper explores how poor working conditions impact sickness absence through their effect on health. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we develop a static theoretical model based on the concept of health capital, wherein poor working conditions are partially compensated by higher wages. According to our model, the effect of working conditions on sickness absence is ambiguous. Second, we apply our model to the case of working time arrangements and test the effect of working irregular schedules or work around the clock on sickness absence, using data from the French Labor Force Survey on a specific population (male manual workers in private sector). As heterogeneity may lead to severe bias, we use propensity score matching methods. Our estimates show that working irregular schedules has a significant impact on sickness absence. The results are more mitigated for work around the clock. In any case, the extent crucially depends on age.     

Learning through games? Evaluating the learning effect of a policy exercise on European climate policy

One of the arguments for the use of simulation-gaming approaches in policy appraisal has consistently been their potential to stimulate learning. Yet few studies seek to ascertain the learning effects of these methods in a systematic manner; on the whole, participants' learning from interactive appraisal processes remains both under-conceptualised and under-evaluated. This paper seeks to contribute to filling this gap by developing a typology of learning effects (cognitive, relational, and normative) that can be expected from policy games. We subsequently present a set of tools for measuring them and test our approach on the case of a policy exercise on burden sharing in future European climate policy involving policy-makers and experts.On the basis of our measurements, we found limited evidence for learning from the policy exercise, mostly in the cognitive and the relational domain. In this context, the use of concept maps is an interesting methodological innovation. Employed as pre- and post-measurements, they proved a useful tool for tracing conceptual change through the exercise among participants. The paper concludes with a plea for more systematic assessment of the learning effects of interactive appraisal exercises, with a view to enabling a deeper discussion on the benefits and limitations of these methods.