转轨经济中的“掠夺之手”

在我国由于长期存在意识形态的惯性和强政府弱社会的格局，以及税制改革造成了地方政府的掠夺行为，经济转轨中的政府可能成为“掠夺之手”。为此，如欲限制政府的掠夺行为，在长期必须以经济改革促宪政转轨，形成社会的“自生能力”，在短期必须改革税制，缩短行政代理链条。     

扶持之手还是掠夺之手?——中国地方政府的投资抉择研究

本文通过对2003—2011年中国31个省级地方政府教育和公共部门固定资产投资的面板数据研究发现:相对于扶持之手,掠夺之手对中国省级地方政府固定资产投资抉择更具解释力。教育固定资产投资受到公共部门固定资产投资的挤占,仅能反映民众的一般性社会需求,并受到资金、土地资源以及中央政府调控的强烈限制;而公共部门固定资产投资则在官僚意志和官员私利的主导下,几乎挣脱了资金、土地资源和中央政府禁令的限制。由此,得以看清中国省级地方政府固定资产投资抉择背后的掠夺之手的行为逻辑。然而,针对学者们所暗含的"掠夺之手仅具有纯粹的掠夺性",本文则提出了质疑,笔者认为:掠夺之手具有混合性,掠夺性包含了扶持性。     

从掠夺之手到扶持之手——政府职能转变的理论基础及其现实意蕴

政府与经济增长的关系微妙且具有极端重要性,它一方面具有"扶持之手"的特征,另一方面也带着"掠夺之手"的印记。该文从政府双重角色的分析入手,构建了一个以"辖区竞争、组织竞争、选举竞争"为代表的政府职能动态转变的框架模型,进而提出该模型在宏观经济发展和基层公共产品供给中的具体运用,以期对"十二五"时期政治体制改革和政府职能转变问题的分析有所裨益。     

民营企业政治联系的背后:扶持之手与掠夺之手——基于资本投资视角的经验研究

以往的研究为政治联系带来的"扶持之手"提供了较多证据,而文章从资本投资视角探讨民营企业构建和维持政治联系所付出的隐性代价,发现在市场化程度较低的地区有政治联系的民营企业资本投资很大程度上受到政府"掠夺之手"的侵害,虽具有较大的投资规模,但却表现为较低的投资效率,并且不利于企业R&D投资;而在市场化程度较高的地区"掠夺之手"则未显著出现。文章认为,从资本投资角度看,在市场化程度较低的地区构建政治联系对民营企业弊大于利。     

论转轨时期中国规制型政府的构建

本文系统探讨了西方规制经济学关于政府与市场关系所经历的从“看不见的手”、“扶持之手”到“掠夺之手”的三个理论模型,并在此基础上以中国股票市场规制为例探讨了这些理论对于转轨时期中国规制型政府构建的有益启示。     

经济转轨时期需要强热政府

转轨时期，政府经济功能界定是一个重要问题。本文认为，基于中国作为一个转轨型的发展中的人品众多的社会主义国家这一基本国情，我们应着重从国有经济活动、市场完善、社会保障等方面入手，塑造一个适应经济需要的强热政府。     

中国经济转轨进程中的财政改革原理

财政改革是经济体制转轨的关键环节,30多年财政改革之中蕴含着政府以目标为导向的决策逻辑。在经济增长和财政能力双重目标约束下,财政体制与政策内生于财政—政府框架之中。从实践历程看,中国财政改革经历了双重目标主导以及经济增长主导的两个阶段。在目前的经济增长约束主导期,其决策逻辑及偏好使财政制度及其改革逐渐呈现出资源配置失衡的路径。对失衡问题的解决要从改变政府决策逻辑及偏好入手。     

转轨经济中的资本外逃研究

根据格雷戈里关于经济体制的四种属性和刘国光对经济体制的“五分法”，本文研究了转轨经济中普遍发生的资本外逃问题。由于转轨经济的现实同科斯定理所要求的理想状态存在巨大差异，较高的交易成本、市场不完全竞争和产权未被很好的界定，使得经济转轨不可能一帆风顺。作为经济转轨的成本之一，资本外逃抑制了转轨经济的正常增长，丧失了大量的税收，加剧了宏观经济的波动。本文分析了转轨国家资本外逃的现状和规模，揭示了资本外逃对于转轨国家的负面效应，从体制转轨的角度深入探讨了转轨国家出现资本外逃的原因，并就如何防范、减少资本外逃提出了对策建议。     

The sustainability of economic transformation

The paper analyzes the feasibility of sustaining both macroeconomic stability and political support during economic transformation. Macroeconomic stability requires that state sector losses plus public infrastructure investment be financed by tax revenue plus any external assistance. Political sustainability depends on the income gains and losses experienced by three groups—state sector workers, private sector workers, and private savers/investors. The aggregate income gains from allowing heterogeneous workers to make occupational choices consistent with their comparative advantages can outweigh or significantly offset the short-run economic efficiency costs of maintaining political support for the transformation. Successful transformation may depend on external assistance, but this need will diminish over time.     

The remarkable transformation of the UV curve in economic theory

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the impact the Unemployment–Vacancy (UV) curve (or Beveridge curve) had on economic theory and to provide an account of the subsequent radical changes in its place and role over the decades since its first appearance in 1958. The paper traces the historical development of the UV curve and argues that the role of the UV curve has changed from that of a measuring device, to a graphical representation of full employment, to an axiom necessary for matching models of unemployment to a diagnostic tool. This changing role is best understood in the light of the paradigmatic change from Keynesianism to neoclassical search theory.     

The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis, this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the original series are compared to forecasts based on logs. For a range of economic variables, substantial forecasting improvements from taking logs are found if the log transformation actually stabilizes the variance of the underlying series. Using logs can be damaging for the forecast precision if a stable variance is not achieved.     

The concept of maturity and the transformation of economic systems

In economics, ‘maturity’ essentially means that an economic system (or part of a system) is ripe to be transformed into something else or heading towards decline. In Josef Steindl's economic thinking the concept of maturity, by which he means a stage of development where the economy becomes unable to fully realize its output potential, occupies a central place. Whereas for Steindl the main causes of such maturity are endogenous, other economists such as Schumpeter, Sombart, Hilferding, Keynes, and Hansen consider stagnation to be caused primarily by exogenous factors. Various concepts and causes of maturity are compared. Contrary to expectations based on these concepts, economic development after the Great Depression has not been characterized by stagnation or transition to planned economy. Instead, the dynamics of innovation were strong enough to prevent the economy from becoming ‘mature’. It appears that the actual course of events can be better explained within Steindl's concept of maturity.     

Income inequality analysis in the period of economic transformation in poland

This paper presents some statistical methods of income inequality analysis based on the theoretical income distribution models that are well-fitted to the empirical models. As theoretical curves, the lognormal, gamma, Burr Type XII, and the Dagum models were used. They were applied to the earnings distributions in Poland in the period of economic transformation from a centrally-planned to a market economy. On the basis of the Dagum model, showing the perfect consistency with the considered earnings distributions, the maximun likelihood estimators of inequality parameters and economic distance ratios between men and women were calculated.     

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.